Beyer Speed Fig: Overused/Overbet?

[GR1@HTR]

I don't think so....Can only speak for the folks at Lone Star Simulcast...This is my estimate of what the simulcast folks at LS are spending.

Percent of Dollars (Note: Not % of users but % of $ bet) comming from the following sources at LS:

75%: Trackmaster (LS Program uses Trackmaster Figs for simulcast racing)
10%: DRF/Beyer (very few buy them there)
5%: Sheet playerS (big betters)
4%: BRIS (a few use them there)
1%: HDW (even less use them)
5%: Other


Now my guess for the home player

40% BRIS/TSN
30% DRF
10% Sheets (T Graph or Rag)
5% HDW
15% Other (ITS, Trackmaster, magic dice...)

Just my opinion....Any thoughts or other estimates?

[Dave Schwartz]

Where can I get "magic dice?" <G>

Dave

[GR1@HTR]

http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathland_10_14.html

or

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/detail/-/toys/B00000IVYE/pictures/14/107-5074369-7325338#more-pictures

[ceejay]

My guess is that 80-90% of the on-track simo players (even big ones) at my track use only the Equibase program (with their speed fig). 10% use DRF or BRIS, about equally split. Very few people seem to buy the DRF track-side (I think because they often run out of the very limited supply of copies).

Locally the "Don Quixote Report" is quite popular (probably 5% penetration). Most users make a special stop off-track to pick it up, but it is available on-line @ http://www.simulcastexpress.com (they do have some free reports http://209.238.250.168/daylast.htm , for Delmar today). It is a computer-generated tip sheet. I don't use it but it does have some good info in it.

But to answer your question, I think that speed figures in general ARE OVER-USED/BET. I don't see much difference between the BRIS figs and the Beyer figs, never use equibase figs for TB's.

[Rick Ransom]

The most over-used information is morning line odds, which explains at least 80% of the variance in actual odds. You could argue that ML odds is largely dependent on speed figures but you don't need the figures themselves to predict where the money is going to go. Jockey records also have a small, but significant impact on odds.

Now, I'm not saying you can profit from knowing this because ML odds are usually pretty accurate. If they eliminated the ML oddsmaker, I think the public would make very inaccurate odds and we all would find it easier to beat the game.

If you're talking about "dumb money", I'd say it goes on horses that have a lot of positive factors. If the favorite has the best class, speed, and pace of the field, the second favorite probably is a good bet.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Where can I get "magic dice?" <G>

Dave

I have several sets. They are $395.00 per set, but you can take off 10% for being a PA user. There is a learning curve associated with magic dice, so be patient.
they are great for exotics!
<GGGGG>
Tom

PS. For all you win-only bettors, you can have one magic
die for only $149.00-works great on small fields.

[Tom]

On a serious note, there are still bargins out there with Beyer standouts.
I posted about a horse at Delmar opening day that was in a NW1x that had already won an ALW race, plus two claimers and a MSW. Here was a 4LT winner that was also competitive in a Stakes, and had huge Beyers compared to the rest of the filed and figured to be ready to move forward.
It was Bafferta, and I thought 3-5 at best so why bother even looking at the race.
WRONG!!!
He won and went off at 3.90 to 1!!!
They must be looking at "magic dice" in California.
I will definately be playing the rest of the Delmar meet.
One or two of these a week will make my year.
Tom

[kingmambo]

i've used BRIS,TRACKMASTER and BEYER figures
and the most consistent for me have been the BEYER numbers.i always take off 5 points for a horse that runs a big fig in the mud and comes back on a fast track.

i also make my own "beyer power numbers" that are very helpful at isolating contenders,especially for 3 and 4 year olds.

i take the dirt fast #+distance#=power number.i also always write down best# at the track.

example:d.fst 98
Dist: 94
BEL: 91 POWER NUMBER:192/91

THIS WORKS FOR ME........i'm able to hone in on "true contenders" with out getting to hung up on "trainer angles" "jockey switches" etc.

[andicap]

I find value on recent back Beyers at times, going 2-4 races back. (or even more). The public does not understand form cycles (except perhaps for the "bounce," and even there you'd be surprised) and the need for a horse to have 4-6 weeks to recover from a tough race.
Great situation is where horse had competitive figure 6 back on dirt in route and since then has been in turf, off track, route, etc. Today's its back in good situation. Public just doesn't look that far back.

Paradoxically, contrary to what I've often seen published, I don't feel the public is as last race focused as we are led to believe. I've seen plenty of horses with poor last races who are
1) on a fast track today (off track last)
2) lower class
3) obvious trouble in race
4) back to best distance
5) back to best surface
6) obvious misleading figure (horse's figure was 15 pts above previos best when he was alone on the lead. The public sniffs these out).



these horses show good races two back and get bet with poor races in last.

You're on the mark here, Andicap. I think the crowd's "focus" is on the last two races -- three at the most. I say this because such a high percentage of my longshot winners (at least 40% or more) are horses who had good 3RB or 4RB angles in their charts. So, I have to conclude from this that the crowd overlooked the dynamics of what was going on in those races and failed to connect that with everything else that has led up to today's race.

As an aside, a good number of longshot winners come also from the pools of LR winners (which again supports your idea that the crowd's knowledge of form cycles is limited), of horses with good but often subtle workout angles (another area where the crowd's knowledge is most definitely limited), and last but not least of horses with rather "unorthodox" trainer maneuver angles in their charts, which tends to confuse the crowd and makes them zig when they should be zagging.

Boxcar

[hurrikane]

Interesting....I go to two different places and they are like night and day apart.

Maryland Simulcast...
I would say 75% use the program which I believe is Trackmaster
20 % use the racing form and not many of those believe in the Beyers.
2 people use computer generated programs like HTR, HSH, etc. Me and that guy are considered the wackos..

Charlestown WV...oh boy.

80 % of the people are walking around with 25 cent program in thier hand that have the horses and the selections...most are farm boys and love to look at the horses, talk to the trainers/jockeys...and most seem to have a personal relationship with the horse...on a higher plane I guessing...either that or it's the moonshine talking

19.9999% have a the DRF in there hands...

1 guy walks around with computer printouts...I"m considered the wacko.

Surprisingly at neither location do tip sheets seem to be big at all...

[andicap]

Originally posted by kingmambo
[

i take the dirt fast #+distance#=power number.i also always write down best# at the track.

example:d.fst 98
Dist: 94
BEL: 91 POWER NUMBER:192/91

[/B]

Trying to understand how you get your figure.
You take the Beyer figure for that particular paceline and add in the best Beyer figure for distance and put next to it the best figure for the track?
Or do you take the horses BEST Beyer figure and add it to his best figure for that distance?

I agree that the Beyers seem to be the most consistent although a Speed Stat study 5 years ago showed Trackmaster amazingly had the best figures. I'd like to see a study comparing the Cramer figures.

[kingmambo]

Originally posted by andicap


Trying to understand how you get your figure.
You take the Beyer figure for that particular paceline and add in the best Beyer figure for distance and put next to it the best figure for the track?
Or do you take the horses BEST Beyer figure and add it to his best figure for that distance?

I agree that the Beyers seem to be the most consistent although a Speed Stat study 5 years ago showed Trackmaster amazingly had the best figures. I'd like to see a study comparing the Cramer figures.



ANDICAP,


I'm using the DRF BOXES in right hand corner of print edition.i've found amazing overlays using this technique.
i finished 8TH in KEENELAND"S HANDICAPPING TOURNAMENT.as i think you noted earlier the "PUBLIC" is obsessed with the last couple of figs,or pace lines.]

i use to avoid horses that are 0 for nine or 0 for 12,now i sometimes bet these horses if they have a "POWER NUMBER" that is obviously superior{5-7 points}.wouldn't you take 6 or 7-1 on a true contender?
after all,it took SEABISCUIT 17 starts to break his maiden!

[jackad]

kingmambo, or anyone
Are these figures available in the online downloads? If so, where are they found?
Jack

[kingmambo]

Originally posted by jackad
kingmambo, or anyone
Are these figures available in the online downloads? If so, where are they found?
Jack

i use the print edition of DRF,however;i believe the online DRF pp's are the same.you can see earlier post on how to construct your own "POWER NUMBERS".

[hurrikane]

Last I checked the DRF (which has been 6-8 mo) the Beyers were now availible in the download. don't know why...

[Aussieplayer]

King Mambo,
As we don't have the DRF here, and I don't know what you mean by "DRF boxes" - could you tell me whether you mean BEST EVER BEYER (fast dirt only) + BEST BEYER AT DISTANCE = POWER NUMBER? Or do you mean something else?

Dave S. - You did work in this area. Your thoughts?

Cheers
Aussieplayer

[Dave Schwartz]

I guess I have missed something, Steve. I don't understand the question.

Try again?

Dave

[andicap]

He's referring to Kingmambo's "Power Number" using the Best Ever Beyer figures in the top right hand corner of the pps. See earlier part of thread

[Dave Schwartz]

Andicap,

Thanks. I forgot to look back. I actuallythought that there were only the notes on this page.

Steve,

Now that I understand the question, the answer is: I have no opinion.

But you can bet that I'll take a look at it down the road. Anytime someone takes the time to tell me that something works for them it must have some merit.

Our definition of "power number" is totally different, but then power is in the mind of the creator, I guess.



Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[kingmambo]

Originally posted by Aussieplayer
King Mambo,
As we don't have the DRF here, and I don't know what you mean by "DRF boxes" - could you tell me whether you mean BEST EVER BEYER (fast dirt only) + BEST BEYER AT DISTANCE = POWER NUMBER? Or do you mean something else?

Dave S. - You did work in this area. Your thoughts?

Cheers
Aussieplayer


yes,the DRF boxes,right hand corner.i also write down best fig at track. example:dfst 102
dist 99 dmr 94 = 196/94