How to decide on the bet

[dav4463]

If you have an approach that generates a profit to win and place (small profit) and your horses are usually between 1-1 and 3-1, with an occasional 7-2 up to 5-1 winner......how do you decide how to bet? I've been using them in show parlays as an addition to my normal longshot style of playing, but after continuing to track the horses; the win/place is still showing a profit. I might as well strike while they are hot!

You could go conservative, bet only to win, or bet win/place. 1 unit to win, 3 units to place?

You could play exactas. Do you put your key horse only on top? Do you box? How many other exacta contenders should you use? Normally I need five other horses to be very sure of hitting the exacta and that includes some very high odds horses that are capable of the upset. It is never the top 5 low odds horses...usually two or three of them or tossed.

Proudinsky fit my "show parlay" method today as the only contender. The horse paid 8.80 to win and 5.60 to place. Had I considered playing exotics, the exacta was 221.60 and the trifecta was 1450.40. Proudinsky was my only play and the exacta and trifecta were completed by horses that were included in my top six....so if played....would hit both the exacta and trifecta.

You can play trifectas, keying your horse on top, with 5 underneath.

Same with superfectas......



Of course, odds requirements need to be met for exotic play.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you have an approach that generates a profit to win and place (small profit) and your horses are usually between 1-1 and 3-1, with an occasional 7-2 up to 5-1 winner......how do you decide how to bet? I've been using them in show parlays as an addition to my normal longshot style of playing, but after continuing to track the horses; the win/place is still showing a profit. I might as well strike while they are hot!

You could go conservative, bet only to win, or bet win/place. 1 unit to win, 3 units to place?

You could play exactas. Do you put your key horse only on top? Do you box? How many other exacta contenders should you use? Normally I need five other horses to be very sure of hitting the exacta and that includes some very high odds horses that are capable of the upset. It is never the top 5 low odds horses...usually two or three of them or tossed.

Proudinsky fit my "show parlay" method today as the only contender. The horse paid 8.80 to win and 5.60 to place. Had I considered playing exotics, the exacta was 221.60 and the trifecta was 1450.40. Proudinsky was my only play and the exacta and trifecta were completed by horses that were included in my top six....so if played....would hit both the exacta and trifecta.

You can play trifectas, keying your horse on top, with 5 underneath.

Same with superfectas......



Of course, odds requirements need to be met for exotic play.

Dave,

I don't think there's anything wrong with betting to win AND place.If you have an especially high place % it just saves the bacon for more bets.It's an investment as a totality,not individual parts.Those with endless bankrolls that preach the 20-30 race losing streak do not feel our pain.Place bets that preserve the new day are premium.

I have a penchant for exactas so that's my normal play but if I have to stretch out too far I bet win/place.Not stretching out when you play exactas can burn you big,but if you feel it's not worth it,it's probably not worth betting period.But if you have a mid-range price and an open field beyond the win hole,win/place is ideal.

With exactas I start out with a bare bones of my key horse to the live contenders,usually 3-5.I get enough $1-$50-100 savers to justify that(Davidowitz stressed wheels as a base).Then I top and bottom 1 or 2 contenders shooting for a decent payoff.Since I'm a $20-30 bettor that might be $75 or $150 dollars.

I'm a po boy though but I'll give you an example from the good day I had today(I lost $58 last week).

Race 2 Tampa Bay-thought the 1 horse at 4yo was showing an explosive line and the #3 was an inferior frontrunner,#4 was a nicely evolving,lightly raced filly but would lag early and not have the favorable rail.$7-1 exacta 1-4,$1 exacta box 1-3,4-3=$12 bet.Exacta $36.40 x 3.5=127.40=$115.40

Race 7 Tampa Bay-didn't know who to like except the #5.I hated the #8 GP shipper but he beat me.I bet $12 win $6 place for a 6.00 place return on the 5=$18,even.

Race 9 Fair Grounds-Friesanfire over Clem and back in the exacta($8-4) plus $1 box 9-3,9-5,9-6=$18=$173.60.

Hey Dave people can laugh at me at my petty betting ways that wouldn't raise a pulse in their world and I've take Jeff P's advice to build a bigger bankroll to heart,but this is where I'm at right now and I had a good day.This is how I think betting everyday.I'm just rusty,but I had a good day today.I only bet $84 total.The passing attack preserves the possibility of a winning day.It's not always about the churn.But hey I'm small fry!!!

[dav4463]

I'm a small fry too! I am usually way too conservative. I need to pounce on my stronger plays, but I'm pretty tight with my money! I normally want to bet a little to win a lot, but with these more confident plays; I really should invest more money I guess. I'm a 2% of the bankroll player regardless of the play.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm a small fry too! I am usually way too conservative. I need to pounce on my stronger plays, but I'm pretty tight with my money! I normally want to bet a little to win a lot, but with these more confident plays; I really should invest more money I guess. I'm a 2% of the bankroll player regardless of the play.

Hey times are tight.I'm a 2% bettor myself but I'm a week to week bettor right now.If I average 1.5% bets because I don't have an absolute bankroll,oh well.If I don't win on Saturday,I don't play til next Saturday.

I've had a good ROI but I've handicapped myself by either playing sporadically or underbeting.It's like spring training for batters=repitition.It took me years to understand the give and take.My only enemy is undercapitalisation.

I live for Saturdays right now.At some point in the success chain I'd love to do it all day.That's where the wolves come out and killl me brother!!!!!!!

I'll get there though.Hatred is an inspiration.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Dav,

I play in a similar fashion betting win/place because over the years my records prove that the losing streaks are held in check and psychologically it is best to avoid the long run outs. This is not a knock on the better players who play the riskier wagers and excel on them...I wish I had the fortitude to use that style of play.

Myself, I am thinking about adding some doubles bets to my daily play since NYRA and many other tracks have race to race doubles.I am just trying to broaden my scope of play and give myself a chance for an occasional windfall with the basic of the exotic bets the double.

As for the 2% figure that is a very sensible amount and unless your long-term records prove otherwise stay with this figure. Overbetting ones bankroll is not a good thing in the long run.

[exactaplayer]

If you are playing $2 win and $3 place on a horse, you may want to create a spreadsheet with three columns. First column has win results, second column has place results and third column has results of betting your choice under top three tote action in exacta. do this for as many plays as you wish. Results may change your betting habits.

[Robert Fischer]

Nothing wrong with playing both, I usually prefer choosing just 1, on the theory that one of them is better than the other.

Live Tote Play - You could look at each race on the toteboard, look at payout probables, and see if win or place has better value on each specific race...

If you want to bet it and forget it - The win should pay a better value. Unless you are betting longshots with a small bankroll, go ahead and bet win only.

If you are sure that the value is similar, go with place betting, the 15-20% improvement in hit rate will take some of the randomness out of the investment.

[GATEDANCER2]

Cincy I hated the 8 too in the 7th at Tampa. But the wiseguys knew something. Don't know if you noticed, but Golf Pal opened up at 1-1. Follow the $.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy I hated the 8 too in the 7th at Tampa. But the wiseguys knew something. Don't know if you noticed, but Golf Pal opened up at 1-1. Follow the $.

I didn't doubt that the horse,coming from Gulfstream and been in a 5 way battle for the lead for over a half mile,had talent.Even money was an underlay though.

At Tampa Bay I usually bet against the money.You could practically make a living betting against Centeno mounts,his name attracts money on even sorry looking horses.In the same race Centeno was on the 7,2 races removed from an easy win in milkwagon time.Yet there he was at 2-1 at 2 minutes to post.That was the only reason I played the race!!

[JustRalph]

pick 3 and 4's .............

[dav4463]

Pick 3's and Pick 4's do not work for me. I rarely find two or three consecutive races that are playable with this method.

[proximity]

I'm a small fry too! I am usually way too conservative. I need to pounce on my stronger plays, but I'm pretty tight with my money! I normally want to bet a little to win a lot, but with these more confident plays; I really should invest more money I guess. I'm a 2% of the bankroll player regardless of the play.

nothing wrong with being conservative in this game. as you evolve from a "small fry" into a bigger fry though i'd begin to flip your win-place ratio around from your present 1w3p to 3w1p. good luck!!

[MarquisMark]

I am mainly a win bettor. I have a better hit percentage with this type of bet as opposed to exactas.

Plus, my bankroll doesn't really allow me to get too crazy with the exotics. I use the 1.5-2.5% of bankroll method (also a small fry) and I don't like to go more than that per race. That only really allows me to bet short exactas with wheel and backwheel and I need to make my exactas wider to hit anything. I probably have a little to learn about constructing these kinds of wagers, although exactaplayers suggestion above was good.

Until my handicapping gets more sophisticated, especially for the place and show slots, I will probably stick to win bets. And dime supers...they are the ideal action bet.

[plainolebill]

I usually bet longshots: I make a win bet, exacta part wheel my longshot under logical contenders, sometimes wheel them over a couple of other horses. BCD/A - A/BC. WIn bet A, sometimes bet two horses to win.

[dav4463]

I usually bet longshots: I make a win bet, exacta part wheel my longshot under logical contenders, sometimes wheel them over a couple of other horses. BCD/A - A/BC. WIn bet A, sometimes bet two horses to win.


I am normally a longshot bettor myself, but since I've started finding a couple of plays a day on low odds horses that have been profitable-- I'm trying to figure out the best way to play them. I know I have to play more money on lower odds horses to make anything decent though.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I am normally a longshot bettor myself, but since I've started finding a couple of plays a day on low odds horses that have been profitable-- I'm trying to figure out the best way to play them. I know I have to play more money on lower odds horses to make anything decent though.

I'm telling you Dave,everybody knows the low odds horses are easy to find and they win often.By playing these in exactas you get a high cash rate if you are able to identify the legitimate contenders.I pass if I have no idea who the place horse will be but I have real good days just finding 2 exactas in the $25-40 range.

[raybo]

Perhaps some work on ranking horses, under your top choice, is in order. If you have to include more than 2 or 3 horses on the place line then working on your ranking/grading method for place would seem an obvious pursuit.

I play supers and never include more than 3 horses on the place line (except in the case of ties in my grading system).

In exacta play, with the smaller payouts found there, including 4 or 5 horses would seem undesireable to me, especially with low priced horses on top.

In my experience, you can't use the same grading/ranking criteria for place, show, or 4th as you do for win.

Just my thoughts, take 'em or leave 'em. :)