A fickle betting public?

[WinterTriangle]

I had to laugh, the New Orleans Stakes today at FG.

3 one-million-dollars-in-earning horses (macho again, dry martini, it's a bird) go off at long odds? Macho Again is a LONGSHOT for the win? :rolleyes:

Sheesh.

Didn't play it but this must go down as some kind of "what were they thinking". :)

[Overlay]

Good horses can often get bypassed if the public is intent only on isolating the one most likely winner, rather than looking at the betting value offered by each entrant in a race field.

[salty]

Oh crap i can't believe i missed a chance to make back the money I have lost before on all of those horses :D

[DanG]

I had to laugh, the New Orleans Stakes today at FG.

3 one-million-dollars-in-earning horses (macho again, dry martini, it's a bird) go off at long odds? Macho Again is a LONGSHOT for the win? :rolleyes:

Sheesh.

Didn't play it but this must go down as some kind of "what were they thinking". :)
Call me fickle WT… :blush:

Everyone has horses that fill a blind spot and Macho Again is definitely it for me. I zig when he zags and probably will as long as he races.

I glad your in tune with the animal WT; well done! :ThmbUp:

[1st time lasix]

Unfortunately I missed the pick four by not including Macho Again even though that was the race in the sequence I spread- because I thought it was more wide open. Was five deep and missed. :bang: I had the horse when he hit the board in a weak Preakness back when.....I think the "slop" conditions certainly helped him in the race. Just another tough beat on the exotic train.......

[OTM Al]

I disagree about rating them by money won in that way. Put Cigar in the gate. He'll by far have them all out earned but that doesn't mean he's going to win. Or how about some of those 10yo geldings that just plug away day after day and have managed to amass a big bankroll while making about 100 starts. But seriously, Macho Again had been racing a notch below in his last few offerings and looked to have slipped from his earlier potential. I only played the P4 and spread 5 horses wide in this race as I thought it the most contentious (and I did have the 3 grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.....). Not sure if he's picked it back up or, more likely, just got a nice trip on an off course. I won't bet him back off that race though.

[DanG]

Good points Al and you sure weren’t alone missing the P4 because of him FTL; :(

Along with being completely out of sync with the animal…his turf comeback threw me. I interpreted that as a sign of weakness and / or indecisiveness by his connections.

[OTM Al]

Good points Al and you sure weren’t alone missing the P4 because of him FTL; :(

Along with being completely out of sync with the animal…his turf comeback threw me. I interpreted that as a sign of weakness and / or indecisiveness by his connections.

I tell you Dan, I have been inventing new ways to lose lately. Played the P3 across the Tampa Derby as well. Used only 7 total horses 1X4X2. But I didn't play it that way as I never do that and instead played a 1X1X1 for $10 and a 1X4X1 and a 1X1X2 for $5 each. Had Musket man on one ticket (alas my 2nd overall choice) and the winer of the sprint on the other, but not both on one ticket...it only payed $300......I really wish I hadn't looked that payoff up.....

[DanG]

I tell you Dan, I have been inventing new ways to lose lately. Played the P3 across the Tampa Derby as well. Used only 7 total horses 1X4X2. But I didn't play it that way as I never do that and instead played a 1X1X1 for $10 and a 1X4X1 and a 1X1X2 for $5 each. Had Musket man on one ticket (alas my 2nd overall choice) and the winer of the sprint on the other, but not both on one ticket...it only payed $300......I really wish I hadn't looked that payoff up.....
As you know Al; exotic betting really tests the pain threshold. It takes some major league resolve to put in all the work; have “most” of your good opinions run well and leave stuck.

I’m working on incorporating a strategy that a friend is using successfully where each leg of the sequence triggers a series of bets. Of course it depends on “projected” payoff power / how much he has committed to the pot etc. He ‘borrowed it from poker that speak of being “pot committed” and how each turn / wager actually creates a new odds line.

Googling ~ “Implied odds” is a very interesting concept in poker that can be adapted for serial bets. Sounds like simple math; but to watch him weave through a card is very impressive. Several weeks away from trusting it in action; but it looks promising.

Hang tough; It's never easy, but all we can do after the dust settles is to put ourselves in positive situations...over and over again.

[cj]

It's a Bird earned the majority of his money in a restricted race, so his earnings are inflated in my opinion.

As for the winner, this is what was posted on my site:
Macho Again 4yo c Fla P 97/4 92

GP 01/24/09 9.0 | 96 107 92 95 | 96| | 96
FG 12/20/08 * 8.0 | 101 90 81 72 | 68| | 74
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LaD 09/20/08 9.0 | 106 107 99 101 | 103| > | 107
Sar 08/23/08 10.0 | 106 101 101 91 | 86| | 100
Sar 07/27/08 9.0 | 116 102 109 102 | 99| | 108*
Bel 06/07/08 12.0 | 100 95 92 85 | 82| + | 96'
Pim 05/17/08 9.5 | 108 98 99 91 | 87| | 102'
CD 04/26/08 7.5 | 105 99 90 99 | 103| - | 105*
TP 03/22/08 9.0 | 99 91 91 74 | 66| | 85
FG 02/28/08 6.0 | 85 86 77 86 | 90| | 94*



His figures from last year win this race, so the question was if he was ready to run his best. I thought he very likely was.

First, he was third off a layoff and ran better second time out than first while still not reaching his top. Second, the first race was obviously just a workout on turf. Third, the last race was a slow paced contest in which he was still finishing pretty fast. It seemed to me those races were nothing but preps for the big purse on Saturday.

[the little guy]

Aren't we ignoring that his two best races have now been run on wet tracks?

[cj]

On my numbers he had run just as well on fast tracks in the Super Derby and the Derby Trial.

[DrugS]

It's a Bird earned the majority of his money in a restricted race, so his earnings are inflated in my opinion.

As for the winner, this is what was posted on my site:
Macho Again 4yo c Fla P 97/4 92

GP 01/24/09 9.0 | 96 107 92 95 | 96| | 96
FG 12/20/08 * 8.0 | 101 90 81 72 | 68| | 74
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LaD 09/20/08 9.0 | 106 107 99 101 | 103| > | 107
Sar 08/23/08 10.0 | 106 101 101 91 | 86| | 100
Sar 07/27/08 9.0 | 116 102 109 102 | 99| | 108*
Bel 06/07/08 12.0 | 100 95 92 85 | 82| + | 96'
Pim 05/17/08 9.5 | 108 98 99 91 | 87| | 102'
CD 04/26/08 7.5 | 105 99 90 99 | 103| - | 105*
TP 03/22/08 9.0 | 99 91 91 74 | 66| | 85
FG 02/28/08 6.0 | 85 86 77 86 | 90| | 94*



His figures from last year win this race, so the question was if he was ready to run his best. I thought he very likely was.

First, he was third off a layoff and ran better second time out than first while still not reaching his top. Second, the first race was obviously just a workout on turf. Third, the last race was a slow paced contest in which he was still finishing pretty fast. It seemed to me those races were nothing but preps for the big purse on Saturday.


If you must redboard - why not show a morsel of dignity and not do it in a thread that questions bettors sanity for not betting on the runners with the biggest career purse earnings in the field?

[the little guy]

If you must redboard - why not show a morsel of dignity and not do it in a thread that questions bettors sanity for not betting on the runners with the biggest career purse earnings in the field?



CJ's dignity was lost even before your's......and that's saying something.

[DrugS]

Please. I'm a man of great dignity. That story about getting ko'd by a chick was total BS.

[bobphilo]

It's a Bird earned the majority of his money in a restricted race, so his earnings are inflated in my opinion.

As for the winner, this is what was posted on my site:
Macho Again 4yo c Fla P 97/4 92

GP 01/24/09 9.0 | 96 107 92 95 | 96| | 96
FG 12/20/08 * 8.0 | 101 90 81 72 | 68| | 74
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LaD 09/20/08 9.0 | 106 107 99 101 | 103| > | 107
Sar 08/23/08 10.0 | 106 101 101 91 | 86| | 100
Sar 07/27/08 9.0 | 116 102 109 102 | 99| | 108*
Bel 06/07/08 12.0 | 100 95 92 85 | 82| + | 96'
Pim 05/17/08 9.5 | 108 98 99 91 | 87| | 102'
CD 04/26/08 7.5 | 105 99 90 99 | 103| - | 105*
TP 03/22/08 9.0 | 99 91 91 74 | 66| | 85
FG 02/28/08 6.0 | 85 86 77 86 | 90| | 94*



His figures from last year win this race, so the question was if he was ready to run his best. I thought he very likely was.

First, he was third off a layoff and ran better second time out than first while still not reaching his top. Second, the first race was obviously just a workout on turf. Third, the last race was a slow paced contest in which he was still finishing pretty fast. It seemed to me those races were nothing but preps for the big purse on Saturday.

CJ,


Your figures illustrate a pattern put forth by Joe Cardello in “Speed to Spare”. The horse runs a big race and earns a big figure. He follows that up with one or more clunkers and then starts coming back in his last race. The public ignores him since the the big figure was a few races back and the improving figure is still not good enough to win today’s race.

Of course, no pattern should be followed blindly and one has to consider other factors such as pace, distance, trainer MO, etc and the big race should have occurred no more than about 4 months ago.

I’ve gotten some nice priced winners this way and its very effective, especially considering its simplicity.


Bob

[the little guy]

I crushed Macho Again on the biggest earner angle as well.....the only problem was that I lost all my money back in the following race when Brass Hat was off the board at an amazing 38:1 despite having earned more than $1 million more than anyone else in the field.

Redboarding's a bitch.

[OTM Al]

I crushed Macho Again on the biggest earner angle as well.....the only problem was that I lost all my money back in the following race when Brass Hat was off the board at an amazing 38:1 despite having earned more than $1 million more than anyone else in the field.

Redboarding's a bitch.

That's because you forgot to employ the "lost more money than he's earned" angle when they took his DWC winings from him.....

[the little guy]

That's because you forgot to employ the "lost more money than he's earned" angle when they took his DWC winings from him.....

If I had remembered the DWC incident I would have lost twice as much.

I look at earnings even less often than I remember what Jockey is riding my horse.

[cj's dad]

Please. I'm a man of great dignity. That story about getting ko'd by a chick was total BS.

how 'bout a substitute.

[WinterTriangle]

DrugS and OTMI, I was not saying I handicap by earnings. :) I'm just saying that in a list of "proven" runners, macho again is that horse for me. Call it sentimental then.....whatever.

(another example: Einstein went off at pretty high odds in that other race last week. Another "proven" guy for me, I would wager him no matter who else was running without even LOOKING at PPs......I trust "this" horse to hit the board, and I trust "this" particular trainer to pick the right races.) (contrast her to one of the trainers with "derby fever".......)

That's how I construct some of my exotics......tend to stay with horses I think have the professionalism and experience to get the job done, based on cycles/history, even though there are new guns who ran better races more *recently* ----- as long as I don't think they have had a serious drop in condition.

[cj]

If you must redboard - why not show a morsel of dignity and not do it in a thread that questions bettors sanity for not betting on the runners with the biggest career purse earnings in the field?

I didn't bet the horse, I was out touring Charm City, apparently part of my mid Atlantic tour.

[FUGITIVE77]

It's a Bird earned the majority of his money in a restricted race, so his earnings are inflated in my opinion.

As for the winner, this is what was posted on my site:
Macho Again 4yo c Fla P 97/4 92

GP 01/24/09 9.0 | 96 107 92 95 | 96| | 96
FG 12/20/08 * 8.0 | 101 90 81 72 | 68| | 74
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LaD 09/20/08 9.0 | 106 107 99 101 | 103| > | 107
Sar 08/23/08 10.0 | 106 101 101 91 | 86| | 100
Sar 07/27/08 9.0 | 116 102 109 102 | 99| | 108*
Bel 06/07/08 12.0 | 100 95 92 85 | 82| + | 96'
Pim 05/17/08 9.5 | 108 98 99 91 | 87| | 102'
CD 04/26/08 7.5 | 105 99 90 99 | 103| - | 105*
TP 03/22/08 9.0 | 99 91 91 74 | 66| | 85
FG 02/28/08 6.0 | 85 86 77 86 | 90| | 94*



His figures from last year win this race, so the question was if he was ready to run his best. I thought he very likely was.

First, he was third off a layoff and ran better second time out than first while still not reaching his top. Second, the first race was obviously just a workout on turf. Third, the last race was a slow paced contest in which he was still finishing pretty fast. It seemed to me those races were nothing but preps for the big purse on Saturday.


Macho Again won three out of four of his dirt starts coming off a layoff. He won as a first time starter. Then won off a 35 day layoff at CD (I still use 30 day layoff markers as recommended by Scott Mcmannis), then he won off a 50 day layoff at SAR. If you watched his last race at GP coming off a 35 day layoff he was in position to make a move off the rail but had to check hard twice coming into the stretch behind two horses and with no where to go the jock just eased him back. So they way I see it Macho Again seems to be in top form coming off any layoff on dirt. I don't see his last race as a prep but one with a major trouble note to those of who use trip handicapping.

Another question, why wasn't Desormeux on this horse, he had been on it the last three times but if you had seen the last race then maybe you know why he wasn't on it.