Trainer Catagory Angles

[InFront]

Most racing past performance products list "trainer angle catagories" below the PP's for each horse. Does anyone know what "timeframe" these stats are based on? Meaning is it based on the current year starts for that trainer, last 100 days, last 365 days, etc. And do all trainer catagories such as those used my DRF or BRIS use the same "timeframe".

Another question has anyone found any use in these stats or do they feel it is more important to use the racing factors that deal with the horse such as the PPs and not handicap the human element on how a trainer did in the PAST at some specific situation?

[OverlayHunter]

I don't know about the printed DRF, TSN, or BRIS but I believe that HDW stats, unless otherwise noted somehow, are a rolling 365 days.

I think the DRF Formulator allows you to go farther back in history but I've never used it.

[ryesteve]

Another question has anyone found any use in these statsI've tried, and my assessment is that you're either chasing noise, and/or betting underlays.

[so.cal.fan]

I always at least check them out In Front.
It's interesting to know a guy is 0/20 with first time starters. Or 6/20 with them. I like to check what type of race it is, then check the trainer's proficiency in that type of situation.
Granted it can change, based on several unknown factors....but generally speaking, I find it useful.
Claiming trainers are a unique bunch. They aren't defensive trainers, they don't often protect horses by running them over their heads.
If I'm looking at a claiming race and I'm seeing two trainers who have entries are 20% and the rest are below 10%, I really hesitate betting the latter.

[InFront]

Thanks members. I sent some emails to a few companies such as Bris or TSN and no replay on what "timeframe" is actually used for Trainer Catagories. I also assume it uses the most recent 365 days of starts the trainer has had.

[classhandicapper]

I look at trainer stats but really haven't found much that I've been able to convert into profits on a consistent basis other than claims. There are other skills like FTS, 2ndTS, layoffs, shoe usage etc... that impact my thinking, but that's about it. I also adjust my thinking depending on my view of the trainer's overall competence. I think horses trained by more competent trainers are more likely to run back to or improve off their recent good figures. All else being equal, I'll take the horse trained by the high percentage guy.

[JWBurnie]

Two I like...first time route & first time turf (both the trainer & horse stats (pedigree/dam stats in bris pp's)). Pedigree for the most part will dictate if a horse will get a route of ground and/or take to the turf, and a trainer that excels in this area should not be over looked. Good luck.

[Donnie]

Absolutely LOVE the trainer stats by HDW (which is on a rolling 365). My most recent success has been due in a large part to these numbers and what is presented in HTR. Because of them, I will be visiting the Red Rocks next January!

[BIG49010]

I believe most stats are multi years 4-5, a bris race from today, Bill Mott was 11% win from 368 First Starters. Takes quite a few years to 368 Firsters, when you consider he might have 60 -70 horses in training.

I do quite well with Maiden 1,2,3,4, Layoffs 1,2,3 Class Changes Up, Down Same. Claims 1,2,3,4 . Finish last race and a few others.

[InFront]

I believe most stats are multi years 4-5, a bris race from today, Bill Mott was 11% win from 368 First Starters. Takes quite a few years to 368 Firsters, when you consider he might have 60 -70 horses in training.

I do quite well with Maiden 1,2,3,4, Layoffs 1,2,3 Class Changes Up, Down Same. Claims 1,2,3,4 . Finish last race and a few others.

I mainly use BRIS/TSN and while going back that many years in time can be a good thing cause the sample size would get bigger not sure when it comes to this trainer stuff going back say more than the most recent 365 days could be a bad thing cause on very old data and stats. I emailed BRIS/TSN on this "timeframe used" and still no reply.

[ranchwest]

If the details of a race suggest conditioning should be a big factor in the race, then the trainer's stats are important. If you're looking at a low level claiming non-winner in a year at a small track, it probably isn't going to take a great training effort to bring one in.

Also, it helps to know how the stats break out by the assistants involved and that data is not generally available.

[samyn on the green]

Trainer stats are more of a liability than an edge. Most are hideously overbet and can induce you into betting some no hope horses on account of past success with other horses.

[Donnie]

Samyn--
I would respectfully disagree. It is much like the racing form...probably 1 in 10 know how to read it properly (especially the result charts!). I feel the same about trainer stats. I have uncovered some huge overlays by interpreting them correctly. If sliced properly and analyzed correctly they are one more insight into the race before you!

I agree the stat may lead you to bet a bum horse, but there are times where the horse transcends the trainer's ability. When you look at a trainer who is 0-50 but his horse definitely towers over the field, you gotta play against that stat! That, in reality, is where the big fish swim! Zig when everyone else zags!

[cmoore]

Breedingwinners.com has trainer reports for 5 or 6 tracks...They give you a percentage figure of how a trainer does at a certain distance and purse in that particular race type..Plus a layoff factor figure depending on how many days off...It's all free...

[FUGITIVE77]

Some of the best bets are finding the sweet spots of those 10% trainers. A 10% trainer might be 30% in some catagory in some specific race meet. I have a trainer that wins with first time starters 40% of the time over the last 12 years at a specific track only in a certain month yet if you go by DRF or BRIS stats it will show him around 15 percent. He rarely wins outside of this month with those babies. And that's every year.

[samyn on the green]

Very good points. Yes there are times when trainer stats have validity and there are times when they can be a liability. The skill is in knowing how to distinguish the two. Samyn--
I would respectfully disagree. It is much like the racing form...probably 1 in 10 know how to read it properly (especially the result charts!). I feel the same about trainer stats. I have uncovered some huge overlays by interpreting them correctly. If sliced properly and analyzed correctly they are one more insight into the race before you!

I agree the stat may lead you to bet a bum horse, but there are times where the horse transcends the trainer's ability. When you look at a trainer who is 0-50 but his horse definitely towers over the field, you gotta play against that stat! That, in reality, is where the big fish swim! Zig when everyone else zags!

[shoelessjoe]

I remember back ions ago when here in Maryland Steve Davidowitz had a daliy handicapping show.He used to give his picks of the day and registered quite a high win percentage.One day King T Leatherbury had a horse entered named Black Lightning who hadnt raced in a year and had very slow workouts.Davidowitz pointed out this this horse would win and that this was a trainer pattern Leatherbury had been using.Until then I was unfamiliar with trainer patterns and the horse popped at 10-1 and he proceeded to do this quite a few more times.Since then I have been a big believer in them.


Mazur's handicapping books and track stats from TSN are meet specific.

[InFront]

Mazur's handicapping books and track stats from TSN are meet specific.

Do you mean TSN trainer catagory stats as listed in the PP's or data files are Meet specific? Cause it seems some trainer stats have way too many starters for one Meet? I was thinking they are more from a 365 day revolving cycle.

[shoelessjoe]

The category stats in TSN are for the whole year

[BIG HIT]

A long time ago horseplayer magazine said trainer stats are best when trk specific over long pierod of time.At that time gave stats for trainer for certain one was going dirt to turf to dirt top 10 successful and another list unsuccessful over 14yr some of the stats had trianer name other list just had initals.Didn't play hawthrone that often but as remmber pretty good except they were chalkish.

[Bruddah]

is to know the meet you are playing. Trainers try to accomplish goals for their stock at each race meet during the year. A great example is Oaklawn. Meet is held from mid January to Mid April. It's a primary meet for prospective 3yo's and some 4&5 year old claimers. Trainers are there to get their stock into condition for spring and summer meets, learn about the 3yo's on hand and to claim.

It's imperative to know which trainers bring stock in ready to run, which are there to claim, and which are there to condition for other meets. Some trainers are there for all three, plus a Training title. In my opinion, if you don't know the Trainer Angles at Oaklawn, you can't win. (JMHO) But, then again, I have only being playing the track since 1965.

A little disclaimer. Trainer Angles may not be the way to handicap for other meets, later in the year.

[Donnie]

and which are there to condition for other meets


AMEN!!! I am following the OP meet only because I want to validate one of my favorite trainer's moves. And so far it appears all systems are "Go!", ......down the road!!!