Aqueduct R2 Turbo Tim

[Bobzilla]

Have you ever locked into an animal chasing him race after race only to be disapointed then finally give up on him and watch him win at a price the first time you don't back him? I refuse to let TURBO TIM do this to me today! Perhaps it's simply early signs of senile dementia but I'm hoping he gets the lead today under Winston Thompson and gets brave from pp2. On last year's Aq Inner I'd be very keen on him today but this year's Inner has been for the most part quite fair.

In both of TT's previous routes he wasn't able to spend any quality rail time and in both cases running to the outside of those races' eventual winners Lexington Avenue and Holy Toledo. If I recall correctly the former might have won a race since and No Bloviating, who would later win a race, finished behind. TT did well to maintain position up until the final panel in the 1/7 race on a sloppy sealed track. He did cough it up a bit sooner on the 1/30 race over a heavy track. On 2/21 the son of speed influence A.P. Jet cut back to what I had hoped would be a preferred 6 furlongs and he is one of my longshot hopes for the day while competing in the Horse Player World Series. Not breaking well in a 6f race over what might have been the Inner's most speed favoring surface of the meet had me banging my head against the table. So back to 2 turns we go.

I'm giving consideration to BRITE GIN as well in this race though I'm concerned he might be too far behind under notoriously bad gate jockey Jeffery Sanchez and be too short a price. At least today he can save ground. I know we all enjoy the excitement of Grade 1 stakes events but I've always gotten equally excited over NYSB Maiden Claimers. Perhaps I'm sick but hey they often yield prices. This last weekend I enjoyed the biggest win payout in my 30 years of playing horses and it was in one of these much maligned NYSB maiden events. So go to the front today and get brave today Turbo Tim. Hopefully I haven't put the kiss of death on your chances today, which is what I usually do whenever I start a thread about a much coveted horse.

[the little guy]

Yeah, he's one of mine too, and has made at least one ( and sort of two ) appearances on Trips&Traps.

Wrong spot today. He needs a weak field in a sprint...on a fair track.

[cj's dad]

Turbo Tim #2

* Last out showed a drop of 11 speed points from previous race
* 4 others (the #'s 1-5-6-8) show better early speed figures
* with the exception of the #4 - Montana Music- he has the worst late pace figure.

Considering these #'s he should be about 15/1

SBM race? You're a lock !!

[the little guy]

Turbo Tim #2

* Last out showed a drop of 11 speed points from previous race
* 4 others (the #'s 1-5-6-8) show better early speed figures
* with the exception of the #4 - Montana Music- he has the worst late pace figure.

Considering these #'s he should be about 15/1

SBM race? You're a lock !!


Last time he chased wide on an inside speed biased racetrack.

It's sort of the point of the initial post....he has buried form.

[cj's dad]

Last time he chased wide on an inside speed biased racetrack.

It's sort of the point of the initial post....he has buried form.

I'm a #'s guy. The only Bias I ever cared about was Len !

[Bobzilla]

Yeah, he's one of mine too, and has made at least one ( and sort of two ) appearances on Trips&Traps.

Wrong spot today. He needs a weak field in a sprint...on a fair track.


TT might have his day in April on the main track. He might just be one of those guys who is caught between a rock and a hard place on the inner, not really wanting two turns (especially if wide) but not quick enough to get into the race early while running six furlongs. All I know is if I don't play him today he'll surely go gate to wire and that will make me feel worse than if I lose money on him today. I'd definitely take all of that 15/1 CJ's Dad predicted. I think he'll be lower.

[jhilden]

From a figure/numbers point of view, this field does not look that good and appears to be an open race. For final velocity, none of the horses have a potent late kick, but for early pace, the figure differentials are very small. Many will be fighting for the lead once out of the gate and it will be a pace attrition race. For the horses, the :4: has the better pace figs for the 2nd and 3rd fraction and may be set up to exploit the pace duel that will ensue. His early pace figs stink so the race really has to implode for him to win. But he does have the right pedigree for the distance/surface, so he may be good for the stretch out. The :6: ran a decent last race even though bumped at the start. The :8: has a great jockey and most likely will get a good chunk of the pool money. The :3: will have blinkers off so he may improve. The one red flag for Turbo is that he is bred for sprints, so the route might get him again. The :1: has the best trainer in the field. The :5: does not have much going for him. I’ll be looking at the :7:; not for money, but will like to see if he improves. He was just gelded and that might help.





From a strict pace look: :6: :8: :5: :4:




My guess is: :4: :8: :6: :1:

[cj's dad]

Hey Bob - seriously, good luck. I just think he has a tough time getting by the #'s 6 & 8


Maybe a back up exacta under these two ??

[Bobzilla]

Hey Bob - seriously, good luck. I just think he has a tough time getting by the #'s 6 & 8


Maybe a back up exacta under these two ??


Good luck to you too today. Though many are partial to 4 year olds in these conditions this time of year I've often had more success with the 3 year olds. The 4 year olds who have been running in 4yo (and late 3yo season) restricted races have usually run against weaker/career maidens while the three year olds have been running against a broader spectrum of talent as trainers try to find the best level for their horses. That being said, neither the 6 or 8, the latter under Senor Dominguez, would surprise me. Good luck!

[Bobzilla]

From a figure/numbers point of view, this field does not look that good and appears to be an open race. For final velocity, none of the horses have a potent late kick, but for early pace, the figure differentials are very small. Many will be fighting for the lead once out of the gate and it will be a pace attrition race. For the horses, the :4: has the better pace figs for the 2nd and 3rd fraction and may be set up to exploit the pace duel that will ensue. His early pace figs stink so the race really has to implode for him to win. But he does have the right pedigree for the distance/surface, so he may be good for the stretch out. The :6: ran a decent last race even though bumped at the start. The :8: has a great jockey and most likely will get a good chunk of the pool money. The :3: will have blinkers off so he may improve. The one red flag for Turbo is that he is bred for sprints, so the route might get him again. The :1: has the best trainer in the field. The :5: does not have much going for him. I’ll be looking at the :7:; not for money, but will like to see if he improves. He was just gelded and that might help.





From a strict pace look: :6: :8: :5: :4:




My guess is: :4: :8: :6: :1:



Agree with much of your analysis. I did notice as well that O'Brien's horse was doing more running at the end of the 2/21 sprint than was TT. That 2/21 track saw more merry-go-round events than I've seen since the beginning of December, though some of that was probably dynamics.

[Bobzilla]

Hmnnn... 17 minutes before the race and BG is 7/1 and TT is 8/1, All of a sudden I'm torn. Didn't think the 1 would be that high. Maybe he'll come down. I wish Napravnick was on the 1 I'd like him more.

[jhilden]

I would go with the :1: at that price. Best trainer in the field. What is the :4: going off at? I'm at work and cannot see the odds

[Bobzilla]

I would go with the :1: at that price. Best trainer in the field. What is the :4: going off at? I'm at work and cannot see the odds


4 is at 12/1 just a minute to go. I went with TT also at 12/1.

[Bobzilla]

Back to 6f for Turbo Tim I suppose. I knew he was a roast today once Bocachica was more intent on the front w/ the 5.

[jhilden]

What was the order of finish?

[Bobzilla]

What was the order of finish?


8
5 head
3 7 lenghts
1 7 lenghts
2 10 lenghts
7 17 lenghts
4 26 lenghts
6 27 1/2

23 4/5; 48 3/5; 1: 15:; 1:42: 3/5

[jhilden]

Thanks a lot !