long term capital plays 03-12-2009

[formula_2002]

see attached.
by rough count, atleast 5 of the last 9 days have a positive wps roi (w/o any rebates)

[formula_2002]

TAM 1 10 PHAT DREAM a wp bet of 6.57 units each ran out.

[formula_2002]

OP 1 4 COMCASTIC WPS,E 9.35 out

[formula_2002]

1st winner of the three qualifying races,
13.64 betting units for wp

Laurel Park - Race 7
# Win Place Show
5 $6.40 $3.00 $2.20


a flat bet wp on the three races would have resulted in a .80.
using the betting size i specify the roi was 1.095
how lucky can you get? :)

[formula_2002]

GP 6 3 CHATTER WINE 9.5 wp betting units.. ran out

[formula_2002]

through 6 playable races:
structured bet roi=.58
flat net roi=.36

4 races left, 2 of which have good probabilities for winning.

[formula_2002]

Charles Town - Race 4
# Win Place Show
7 $8.00 $4.00 $2.60 10.54 unit play


that should bring the day up to a structured bet roi of 1.00

[formula_2002]

Penn National - Race 6
# Win Place Show
10 $2.80 $2.80 $2.40

largest structured bet of the day,22.14 units

days roi is 1.11

the next and i would think, the final bet of the night is a 15.34 wps play , delta downs r6

[formula_2002]

Penn National - Race 6
# Win Place Show
10 $2.80 $2.80 $2.40

largest structured bet of the day,22.14 units

days roi is 1.11

the next and i would think, the final bet of the night is a 15.34 wps play , delta downs r6

its actually a double down bet!!!

[formula_2002]

its actually a double down bet!!!
# Win Place Show
7 $7.80 $4.00 $3.20

end of day.. a very,very large roi for the day

[Laron]

can some one help i do not understan how to figure the beting with proportional odds Math was never my strong suit Thanks Laron

[formula_2002]

can some one help i do not understan how to figure the beting with proportional odds Math was never my strong suit Thanks Laron

the only problem with proportional odds betting is.............
you have to know the final odds, which is a bit difficult today, because the final tote board odds can and do change after the gates open.

however 1/(odds+1) returns the % of the bet you would make.
say your basic betting unit is $100 and the horse odds to win is five to one, then 1/(5+1)=1/6=.16

.16 X $100= $16 is your bet.

to help overcome the problem of not knowing the final odds, I have worked up numbers that determine the bet size way before the race track even opens.

in the long term, that bet size works as well, sometimes better and some times a bit not so better, as proportional odds betting.

hope that helps.