SHOW PARLAY

[markum77]

Bankroll $1000
REPOST FROM OTHER THREAD... I SUPPOSE IT SHOULD BE IN THE SELECTION THREAD.
$200 to show.

lrl race 5 the 2 out
aq race 2 the 1a 380 250 210
aq race 5 the 2 270 230
GG race 3 the 2 380 240
SA race 7 the 4 280 240 210
pen race 5 the 6..late addon 220 220

DD race 10 the 2. 340 240 220

bankroll.. $930... lost 70 on show no rebate added..

place would have been $400 up. show bets are TOUGH ...
markum77 is online now Reply With Quote

[markum77]

BANKROLL $930..

$200 TO PLACE AND SHOW.

AQ RACE 1 NUMBER 7
LRL RACE 2 NUMBER 1

AQ RACE 3 NUMBER 1

FG RACE 4 NUMBER 1

LA RACE 3 NUMBER 3

GOOD LUCK..

[markum77]

BANKROLL $930..

$200 TO PLACE AND SHOW.

AQ RACE 1 NUMBER 7
LRL RACE 2 NUMBER 1

AQ RACE 3 NUMBER 1

FG RACE 4 NUMBER 1

LA RACE 3 NUMBER 3

GOOD LUCK..


4 wins in a row.. all 2.10 onthe show... all placed + $130 there..

[markum77]

add gg race 6 the 7

[markum77]

gg race 6 320 220 210....

[markum77]

add gg race 7 the 2

[markum77]

460 240 220 BANG

[markum77]

AQ RACE 1 NUMBER 7 210 210
LRL RACE 2 NUMBER 1 240 210

AQ RACE 3 NUMBER 1 270 210

FG RACE 4 NUMBER 1 210 210
gg race 6 the 7 220 210

gg race 7 the 2 240 220

bank roll $ 1170

$3600 wagered .. 5% rebate ..$180

[markum77]

So far only 3 plays for Friday..
200 place and show

beu race 3 the 2

fg race 1 the 3


tp race 1 the 2

[markum77]

AQ RACE 1 NUMBER 7 210 210
LRL RACE 2 NUMBER 1 240 210

AQ RACE 3 NUMBER 1 270 210

FG RACE 4 NUMBER 1 210 210
gg race 6 the 7 220 210

gg race 7 the 2 240 220

bank roll $ 1170

$3600 wagered .. 5% rebate ..$180


la race 3 220 210
bankroll 1200 rebate 200

[ryesteve]

$3600 wagered .. 5% rebate ..$180
Who exactly gives a 5% rebate on $2.10 payoffs???

[markum77]

I CANT NAME WHERE I BET BUT MY AVG IS 9.3 .. UNLESS ITS A NEG POOL.. YOU STILL CAN GET 3% ANYWHERE AND NOT OFF SHORE. PTC WOULD PROBABLY GIVE THAT...JUST TO GET THE PLACE ACTION TOO. ONLY SOME OF THE ACTION WOULD BE NEG POOLS ON SHOW

[ryesteve]

UNLESS ITS A NEG POOLI know, that's what prompted my comment. Five of your six payouts were $2.10

[markum77]

210 is the min payout.. does that mean its a neg pool for sure.. I thinkyou still can get 3% with the neg pool most places. Unless you are firing thousands a race in .. then your cut off for sure... The place is rarely negative.. so that is locked in.

[ryesteve]

I thinkyou still can get 3% with the neg pool most places.Anyone else want to chime in here? I can't imagine that this could possibly be true anyplace, much less "most places"

[markum77]

getting off point..


260 220
280 210


bankroll. is.... 1370 no rebate ... but thats not reality.. its far more no matter how you count it..

[markum77]

AQ race 2 the 1.... 200 place show

[markum77]

350 260 210 BANG


bankroll 1450 bang..

[markum77]

gg race 4 the 3


sa race 6 the 2

los al race 6 the 3

[markum77]

240 220 Bang

16 0f 17 bang

bankroll...1500 bang.

[markum77]

original bank 1000
bankroll 1510..

6800 wagered.. 5% rebate.. $340..

[markum77]

remove sa race 6 the 2.... wrong race...

[markum77]

fg race 10 the 1.

[markum77]

360 300 bang...17 of 18


bankroll 1770 bang bang

[markum77]

240 210 AT LOS AL.. BANG AGAIN.... 18 IN A ROW... PLACE AND SHOW BETS IN A ROW.

3 DAYS BETS TOOK 1000 BUCKS TO A TOTAL OF $1820.. PLUS ALL THE REBATES YOU CAN SCRAP UP ON OVER 7K IN BETS.. . YOU DO THE MATH.

YOU CAN TELL WHEN YOUR FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS.. THE HATE MAIL STOPS.. :jump:

[formula_2002]

races for 3/11 through 3/13

I looked at the results for odds on favorites in field >=7(to insure a show pool bet) and races where the book % was <=125 (to insure no favorite entry)
the flat bet show pool was .92 roi

using my structured bet, the show pool roi went up to .98..

from there you can make any assumption :)

I just looked at over 2000 races for the same conditions.
both fb and structured bet roi was appox .94

[markum77]

Formula. Not sure what or how the structured bet would move up an roi.. and not sure what your trying to relay. Except about theshow pool being good for a rebate play, If you can get a rebate there.. Still waiting on your info on shippers. I concur with the 93roi though.

[formula_2002]

Formula. Not sure what or how the structured bet would move up an roi.. and not sure what your trying to relay. Except about theshow pool being good for a rebate play, If you can get a rebate there.. Still waiting on your info on shippers. I concur with the 93roi though.

I always want to know if I'm lucky or smart.
If I get an roi of 1 from a bet that everyone else gets a .5 roi, them I'm very smart. :)
A structured bet is base on a figure i obtain after handicapping a race.
it's akin to a proportional odds bet
I think it may help eliminate the hi's and lo's for roi's.

Unfortunately, i don't capture the the shipper info in my data base.

[markum77]

THAT MAKES SOME SENSE. I DO THE SAME WHEN I TAKE A SPOT PLAY THATS BREAK EVEN, THEN WHITTLE IT DOWN TO ITS BEST PARTS AND CREATE ANOTHER SPOT FROM THAT. SO WHEN IT POPS UP MULTIPLE TIMES ON MY SHEET THEN i KNOW ITS STRENGTH. I HAD ONE THAT SHOWED UP 11 TIMES ONCE. WON AND PAID 12 DOLLARS. I WOULD HAVE EXPECTED IT TO PAY 220. I DONT HAVE A WEIGHT SYSTEM LIKETHAT BUT WILL LOOK INTO IT. I CANT REALLY BACKTEST BECAUSE I DO REVIEW MY SELECTIONS IN THE PPS INCASE THE SELECTION HAS SOME HIDDEN DANGERS THAT THE SPOT CANT SEE.

HERE IS TODAYS PICS

AQ RACE 5 THE 5
TUP RACE 2 THE 2
TUP RACE 3 THE 7
GG RACE 2 THE 4...... IMPRESSIVE FIRST START

[markum77]

300 210 210


bankroll 1840


19 in a row...


$1.23 roi.. for a dollar bet. not exact but close..

[Pace Cap'n]

300 210 210


bankroll 1840


19 in a row...


$1.23 roi.. for a dollar bet. not exact but close..

$7000 bet, $840 profit = 1.12 ROI

[markum77]

320 280
out
220 210

Bankroll 1670 started with 1k...plus massive rebates on 7600 or so. Never bet chalk at tup.. this is my 10th time remembering that one.

23/25 place bets or 92%..

[markum77]

mon..

BEU race 6 the 6
beu race 7 the 2

mnr race 2 the 7

Good luck..

[formula_2002]

320 280
out
220 210

Bankroll 1670 started with 1k...plus massive rebates on 7600 or so. Never bet chalk at tup.. this is my 10th time remembering that one.

23/25 place bets or 92%..
Interesting thread.
question. It seems that the current bankroll is based on $200 show bets. Right?
or is it $200 place bets?
thanks.

[markum77]

THE FIRST DAY WAS 200 TO SHOW .. THEN FROM THEN ON ITS 200 TO PLACE AND SHOW.. IM SURE MY NUMBERS ARE OFF.. THE PLACE MAY BE HIGHER..ITS STILL WAY AHEAD.. TIME WILL TELL, USUALLY THERE WILL BE A DAY WHEN YOU GET 3 BREAKDOWNS THAT KILLS YOU.. OR BLEEDS..

[formula_2002]

THE FIRST DAY WAS 200 TO SHOW .. THEN FROM THEN ON ITS 200 TO PLACE AND SHOW.. IM SURE MY NUMBERS ARE OFF.. THE PLACE MAY BE HIGHER..ITS STILL WAY AHEAD.. TIME WILL TELL, USUALLY THERE WILL BE A DAY WHEN YOU GET 3 BREAKDOWNS THAT KILLS YOU.. OR BLEEDS..
I'm just try to get a handle on what you have accomplished so far.
so after 25 races, at say $400 a race you are up about 1.75 races.
keep it going!!

[markum77]

I would guess it is over 2100 with rebates easily. Anderon is actually pretty good with chalk, i saw him hit 17 in arow odds on. They came so sparse that it bored him to death watching all day for one or two plays at odds on when we matched his selections with mine. That was win bets.


I am at .95 for the year on $270,000 of bets. Avg rebate is large on winbets.. but i have 150 bets on saturdays.. and sundays.. based on $20 win bets...i have been down as much as 2k on a saturday...

[markum77]

add phil race 5 the 5.. 10 lengths better

[markum77]

220 210

bankroll is
$1700 24 of 26 place wins

[markum77]

beu race 6 bang....25 of 27 place bets

280 240
bankroll 1820

[markum77]

26 of 28 bang

240 210


1880 bankroll

[Light]

I assume you're doing show bets rather than a show parlay?

The place bets are confusing me.

Are you adding a rebate to the balance you are showing us?

I'd like to follow what you are doing but I'm having a hard time understanding your layout. Can you summarize and clarify your bets without the rebate stuff?

[markum77]

i am posting only the place and show payoffs and then the bankroll without rebates added... you can add about 600 or so with rebates..


the bet is now 200 to place and show..

[markum77]

Wagered Returned Bonus Profit/(Loss)
PLACE 2 40.00 56.00 2.50 18.50
PLACE SHOW 2 80.00 100.00 5.00 25.00
SHOW 2 40.00 44.00 2.20 6.20


TOTAL 6 $160.00 $200.00 $9.70 $49.70

here is a separate sample of what i won today. On some place and show bets.. some were not posted on here. Cant give them all away for free!!

These bonuses suck.. ie rebates but I dont need them anyway.. others i hit wwere beulah 9-7 and haw 7-6...

im like 30 of 32 now.. but wont count the ones that were not posted..

[markum77]

tup race 7 the 3

[markum77]

bang .. can they get any easier than that...I will take 210 in a one horse race with 7% rebate..

210 210

27 of 29

bankroll 1900... plus massive rebates..

[markum77]

220 220 by 20

$1940 bankroll...........

28 of 30 place bets won..28 of last 29 plays actually. Plus massive rebates..

30 times 400 equals 12000 pushed thru the windows. BANG :jump: :cool:

[formula_2002]

220 220 by 20

$1940 bankroll...........

28 of 30 place bets won..28 of last 29 plays actually. Plus massive rebates..

30 times 400 equals 12000 pushed thru the windows. BANG :jump: :cool:
no small thing..nice going

[markum77]

Tues..

beu race 3 the 2

pha 9 - 3

[markum77]

260 210


240 210


bankroll $2060


30 of 32..place picks TODAYS PROFIT..$120...REBATES OF ABOUT 40 BUCKS SAFELY FOR SURE MAYBE MORE.. BOW CHICA WOW WOW...

I COULD LOSE 4 PLACE PICS IN A ROW AND STILL BE AHEAD.

[formula_2002]

GOOD GOING..

[markum77]

Thanks. They were not my strongest pics but good enough.

[Light]

Tues..

beu race 3 the 2



I know you're 30 for 32 but when you get a bunch of $2.10's on the show, there's not much room for error. In fact its a requirement that you be at least that good. One miss and it would take you 20 show bets to recoup at $2.10 cause you're not parlaying as the title of this thread states.

There were 3 false and heavy favorites at Beulah today. Even though your pick here was 1/2,you did a good job steering clear of those 3 pitfalls.

[markum77]

I cant agree more.. the trick is to steer clear of the false favs. The show is almost impossible with no rebate. YOU will hit the 3 run out days do to circumstances out of your control. I do however think I would still get some rebates on show at 210... at 220 tracks there is way too much piled in the show hole and plenty of neg pools. I know from experience. My long term profits were not in showpools. But im trying to get better and you have to bet a million a year to play at the big tracks these days and get rebates. So you need the churn.


Wed has some solid plays..

[markum77]

I think and dont quote me but i am at plus 200 on show bets for the 30 plays..without rebates and thats on 6000 dollars bet. %5 would be another $300..so its not that risky..

[markum77]

Wed...

lrl 7-2

beu 2-5

gp 2-1

aq 4-2

tam 1-6

show only..... gg race 8 number 1

pen 1-1 show only..

[Pace Cap'n]

Why is the title of this thread "SHOW PARLAY" when you are not playing parlays?

[pic6vic]

Markum

Remember you will not get a rebate for payoffs of $2.20 and 2.10.

[ryesteve]

Markum

Remember you will not get a rebate for payoffs of $2.20 and 2.10.I tried that 3 or 4 pages ago in this thread... good luck...

[exactaplayer]

Markum

Remember you will not get a rebate for payoffs of $2.20 and 2.10.
Try PTC, they give rebates on these plays.

[formula_2002]

Wed...

lrl 7-2

beu 2-5

gp 2-1

aq 4-2
tam 1-6

show only..... gg race 8 number 1

pen 1-1 show only..

THEY LET A PICK OF YOURS GO OFF AT 3/2..NO RESPECT. :)
A WINNING PICK THAT IS..
NICE

[markum77]

I know.. i got home and almost had to laugh..

[markum77]

Wed...

lrl 7-2

beu 2-5

gp 2-1

aq 4-2

tam 1-6

show only..... gg race 8 number 1

pen 1-1 show only..




320 240
210 ns
no place wagers on gp horse won
260 240

33 of 35 place wagers won... Bankroll. $2360 from a start of $1000 plus massive rebates pushing us way over 3k. LIke I said I dont need them.. but thanks for the feedback. I have not figured up how my horses did on the win end.. would be interestedto know if anyone is counting. Thanks.

Two show bets later. I am iffy on them..

220 210

PLUS 300 so far today...plus rebates..... plenty of rebates on these bets..

[markum77]

We started out considering a show wager parlay which is not workable at my level. I cant change the title.. sorry. We have been betting 200 place and show since day two. I was wondering if breakage would help. I erroneously said dime when i meant nickel in the other thread.. at the bottom level of prices its about 2 percent or so. Just not enough plays at one track.

[markum77]

I think on 36 win bets im like almost even.. with no rebates. Rebates on 7200 would have been $560...at 8%.. SEE ANDERON for win bets.. Hes my hero.. hes 86% winners... Im only like 95% place wins.. Oh well. 95% is ok with the healthdepartment so im gonna be happy too..

[markum77]

320 240
210 ns
no place wagers on gp horse won
260 240

33 of 35 place wagers won... Bankroll. $2360 from a start of $1000 plus massive rebates pushing us way over 3k. LIke I said I dont need them.. but thanks for the feedback. I have not figured up how my horses did on the win end.. would be interestedto know if anyone is counting. Thanks.

Two show bets later. I am iffy on them..

220 210

PLUS 300 so far today...plus rebates..... plenty of rebates on these bets..
AHHHHHHHHH got nipped by a nostril at penn on the iffy show bet.. won the gg.. $2170 bankroll after the loss there..

LESSON... either love the horse or dont bet..

[markum77]

I hope everyone enjoyed my thread and cheered home my big wins. (3.20) It just doesnt seem like anyone else shares thier success except the guy that posts his long term profit plays.



The end!!!!!!

[pic6vic]

I hope everyone enjoyed my thread and cheered home my big wins. (3.20) It just doesnt seem like anyone else shares thier success except the guy that posts his long term profit plays.



The end!!!!!!

markum

I played place for well over a year and had decent success. I stopped when they would not allow USA to participate. The idea you have is very valid and will work well as long as you stick to the basics you described. Betting favorites to place with a rebate can be very profitable. Also I admire you for posting as it is not easy to post and play as usually you are looking at too many tracks.

Good luck and thanks for sharing