IMPROVING MY SPOT PLAYS

[markum77]

I HAVE QUITE A FEW SPOTPLAYS. I am considering sorting certain factors of horses off of each one to discard. What do you thing about the following factors to remove.

Horses that are shipping to a diff track that they have not raced on before.

Horses that are closers coming off long lay offs.

Horses that are moving from a cheaper local track to a better one.. IE.. beulah to turfway. My thinking is that the spotplay might equate thier cheap wins with those at better tracks.

Any other ideas for automatic exclusions.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Welcome Markkum. In my opinion you should be very careful to adhere to automatic rules in anything in this game (unless it is proven statistically with your own records). An automatic elimination can cause you to miss some real hefty mutual payoffs in the long-term. Let the price be your guide and avoid the lower-priced questionable qualifiers to put yourself in a real percentage advantage situation.

[goforgin]

[QUOTE=markum77]I HAVE QUITE A FEW SPOTPLAYS. I am considering sorting certain factors of horses off of each one to discard. What do you thing about the following factors to remove?

I agree with Zappi. Keep good records of your spot plays individually by spot play. Sort further by track, type of race (e.g. maiden claiming, < $10K claimers) and age group. Once you have 1,000 to 2,000 races, you may start seeing patterns. One spot play may work at one track, but not another. One may work early in the meet when a lot of the horses are coming off layoffs. Others the opposite. Requires patience to wait for the right conditions to be met for a wager on your spot play. Some you may only get 2-3 plays per week and others may have long run-outs. Good luck.

[markum77]

I suppose that I will check all my plays for factors that I perceive will always be a bad bet. Might take a while. But I will post what they returned.. They might be dragging down my roi. Might be the only way to increase my spot plays roi compared to the lazier spot play guys.

[markum77]

I have 45k races now in my data base.. some spots have about 5oo plays our of all the races.. broke down by track it could be about 10 race or so on some. Im jsut not sure thats reliable. I would want to see a spot play run 200 or so at just one track to know. I have found the only way I can make good money is with 9% across the board, rebate on win bets. I would say im about .97 roi before rebate. Thats how tough this game is. I have been messing with this stuff for years too. Dang it I want to break even before the rebate.. My spot plays at high rebate tracks that arent twinspires or mec all ways do worse before rebates... That speaks to how many spot players are betting those tracks to me.

[ryesteve]

What do you thing about the following factors to remove.

I have 45k races now in my data base

Honestly, I'd listen to my database before listening anyone else's opinions.

[markum77]

`I consider breaking them down by each track and then by what month each worked best at each track. I would end up with 900 spot plays. Has anyone done this.. I dont have the database set up to do that but im sure some of you have. Have any of you seen repeating patterns on each play over say 5 years.

[ryesteve]

I consider breaking them down by each track and then by what month each worked best at each track.My experience is that short term trends such as "what worked and which track this month" is generally the result of random noise. There's always going to be ebb and flow, and if you start chasing what looked great last month, you're probably going to end up with less than optimal results for this month. Longer term trends tend to be more reliable, but even with that you end up with volatility.

[Tom]

Listen to Dave's two excellent videos on db's posted last week.

[rokitman]

I have 45k races now in my data base.. some spots have about 5oo plays our of all the races.. broke down by track it could be about 10 race or so on some. Im jsut not sure thats reliable. I would want to see a spot play run 200 or so at just one track to know. I have found the only way I can make good money is with 9% across the board, rebate on win bets. I would say im about .97 roi before rebate. Thats how tough this game is. I have been messing with this stuff for years too. Dang it I want to break even before the rebate.. My spot plays at high rebate tracks that arent twinspires or mec all ways do worse before rebates... That speaks to how many spot players are betting those tracks to me.
What do ya mean by that?

[markum77]

I have found my best plays get bet down below .97 even if they were 1.05 for the last few months.. they of course go down. The rebate brings me to 1.06. Roi. What was 1.06 for months can go to .90 easily with others jumping on board. You can easliy be playing what you think are at 1.06. When in actuality, now it is at .90 due to band wagoning. Of course it will come back up, but you need the rebate to make anything.. My opinion.

[markum77]

I saw one of them.. do you have the link to the second one..

[Tom]

I saw one of them.. do you have the link to the second one..

Same thread, further down.

[markum77]

INTERESTING STUFF ON USING UNIONS ON DIFF FILTERS. hIS SYSTEM IS REALLY COMPLICATED AND MUST HAVE TAKEN A COUPLE HUNDRED THOUSANDHOURS TO BUILD. I AM GUESSING ITS WORTH MORE TO SELL SUBSCIPTIONS. Seems like it would take a database of 500k races to use it with all the filters and comparing them to the odds tables is so out of my ability to build. Wonder if he can sell you the 500k races too.. I wouldnt want to wait 10 years to get the full benifit.

[cnollfan]

Horses that are moving from a cheaper local track to a better one.. IE.. beulah to turfway. My thinking is that the spotplay might equate thier cheap wins with those at better tracks.



I would turn this one on its head and exclude low-odds horses moving from a better track to a cheaper one. If they are longshots that's one thing, but heavily bet horses moving to a lesser circuit are money burners. There's often a reason they are there in the first place.

[markum77]

Thats true too... they get waxed so often..