Louisiana Derby @ Fair Grounds

[Watcher]

Fair Grounds - March 14th, 2009 - Race 9
Louisiana Derby - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:45 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $600,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt

Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Free Country (KY) 3 Colt 122 Kent J. Desormeaux
2 Soul Warrior (KY) 3 Colt 122 Shaun Bridgmohan
3 Patena (KY) 3 Colt 122 Robby Albarado
4 Terrain (KY) 3 Gelding 122 Julien R. Leparoux
5 Flying Pegasus (KY) 3 Colt 122 John R. Velazquez
6 Giant Oak (IL) 3 Colt 122 James Graham
7 Uno Mas (KY) 3 Colt 122 Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
8 Papa Clem (KY) 3 Colt 122 Rafael Bejarano
9 Friesan Fire (KY) 3 Colt 122 Gabriel Saez
10 Nowhere to Hide (KY) 3 Colt 122 Corey J. Lanerie

This should be a great race.

[joanied]

Watcher...thanks for posting the field...yes sir, gonna be a hell of a race. I need to check it all out, but I think it'll be between Freisan Fire & Patena...I also like Giant Oak, but don't know his jock:blush: ...I'll be back with my picks...because it's fun:jump:

[toussaud]

james grahm can ride. he's not gomez but he's not chopped liver either. good solid midwest rider.

[FlyinLate]

In my opinion Fresian Fire will finally go down here.

I like Giant Oak, Patena, and Papa Clem. After I Want Revenge's performance in the Gotham it really flatters Papa Clems last race. Not to mention Bejarano is confident enough to make the flight out there.

If Patena is what Dutrow is hyping him to be we should see a brilliant effort. As for James Graham riding Giant Oak, the connections were very upset at Prado after the last. Chris Block has always liked James Graham and they want to give him a shot with a good horse. Giant Oak hits home as he's a local IL bred who I'd love to see do some serious damage on the derby trail. Needless to say I'll be playing against probable favorite Fresian Fire.

[OTM Al]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Flying Pegasus. Beaten only one length in the race that made Charitable Man one of the top picks coming out last year and lost by only 2 in his last, his first after a long layoff and first around 2 turns. I'm expecting a big move forward this time. But hey, go ahead and bet on the names again.... :)

[point given]

Free Country ? I was onto him pre Sam Davis at TBD and he disappointed, now shows up at FG and Kent D ships into ride . I've only got room for 5 of my 6 horses in the the Roadtothederby and he's the odd one out.

OTM AL , I 'm with you on Flying Pegasus, last out was from the 12 post and wide the entire race , first off the LO. Patena with first time Dutrow stuff, and Giant Oak, bad trip last out and new rider on noted. No love for Friesan Fire though he has done everything asked of him. Looks like a hellofa race

BTW - here is a link to the pps for the louisiana derby from the roadtothederby website. Note Albarado off FP and on Patena, while JR Velasquez comes in to ride FP.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/laderbypps.pdf

[Watcher]

This race is stacked. I'm excited that there are all these potential contenders this year, it makes the process that much more interesting!

[MickJ26]

Does anybody know if FG is going to have any guaranteed pools or an all-stakes pick 4 or anything like that? Thanks.

[Toss_DeLoser]

Don't be surprised if RACHEL ALEXANDRA runs a quicker time in the Oaks than the boys do in the derby.

[joanied]

james grahm can ride. he's not gomez but he's not chopped liver either. good solid midwest rider.

Thanks...that's good to know:ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

I like the two favorites here; Friesan Fire and Patena.

I'm tossing Giant Oak out of the top spots completely.

If I play the race- dime super Using FF and PAT 1st 2nd
something like:
1 FF, Pat
2 FF, Pat, UnoMas, Free Country
3Uno Mas, Free Country, FF,Pat
4Uno Mas, Free Country,FF,Pat, Longshot,Longshot,Longshot,longshot
for $6

:jump:Friesan Fire is my #1 Derby Contender, so i hope he either or wins, or maybe even better if Patena wins & runs a huge figure to overshadow a strong 2nd from Friesan Fire and keeps FF a little under the radar.

[Watcher]

Anyone know why Bejarano is traveling to ride Papa Clem? I don't know much about this horse, any info?

[WinterTriangle]

Heck of a race to handicap, esp. if you second-guess yourself afterwards, because there is something you can find in each horse, and in their other races, and then putting them together on that field, to make it hard to decide.

If one were wagering on "pure looks" ;) , Papa Clem is knock-down-dead gorgeous, isn't he? Have ya'll seen photos of him?

I haven't handicapped the race yet, that was just an aesthetic observation :)

[Tee]

Under stout restraint early on in The Risen Star when taken back to last. Tried to make a move down the backstretch, got shut off and was checked hard. Inside trip from there, Nowhere To Hide was bounced in front of him at the top of the lane where he continued on decently to the finish.

Better post position for Saturday, Bridgmohan back aboard. Hopefully a better finish position as well at a decent price.

[sam i am]

Very difficult but fun race,lots of contenders.
I landed on Terrain after a disapointing race in the Jackpot he took the rest winter off, shows up here after 2 nice works and the blinkers come off. this was my horse in the BC Juv, so I might be chasing.
Will use with Flying Pegeasus, the odds will show me the way. I think with all the hype around Patena he will be too short for my taste, can he win sure but not with my $ at a short price in this very good field.

Good luck

P.S. Does the San Felipe look like a grade 2 to anyone. i see a 1/5 and a negitive show pool here.

[Robert Fischer]

Anyone know why Bejarano is traveling to ride Papa Clem? I don't know much about this horse, any info?
Bejarano was the regular jockey in California, and the La. Derby is a 600K race for Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Expect a jockey to travel in that situation.

I have a split opinion on Papa Clem. I think he will like the dirt, but I think 1 1/16th over the fairgrounds surface will be tiring. - However he figures to lead and has shown that he has the style/heart that could carry on beyond his preferred distance if he has a great trip (on the lead). Not really trying to use him first or 2nd , but I can't toss him with confidence.

[FlyinLate]

Bejarano was the regular jockey in California, and the La. Derby is a 600K race for Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Expect a jockey to travel in that situation.

I have a split opinion on Papa Clem. I think he will like the dirt, but I think 1 1/16th over the fairgrounds surface will be tiring. - However he figures to lead and has shown that he has the style/heart that could carry on beyond his preferred distance if he has a great trip (on the lead). Not really trying to use him first or 2nd , but I can't toss him with confidence.

Alot of the talk surrounding Papa Clem revolves around I Want Revenge's performance in the Gotham. Papa Clem almost held off late flying Pioneer of the Nile and defeated IWR by about a length and a half (correct if im wrong, im at work, no form in front of me).

Anyways, if Papa Clem handles the dirt, he has a chance of running them all off their feet.

[W2G]

Zito's Nowhere To Hide will scratch and run in Tampa Bay instead.

[joanied]

Zito's Nowhere To Hide will scratch and run in Tampa Bay instead.

Thanks for the update, W2G...guess I'll just toss out my pick for 4th place...not important anyway...my picks for win-show still stand.
I still need to find the entires for the TB Derby :faint: and I may pick Zito's horse to win that...since he decided to switch...must be a good reason, besides the field for the LA Derby is quite deep....easier spot for Nowhere to Hide?

[W2G]

....easier spot for Nowhere to Hide?

Much easier. And gets Alan Garcia and a far better post. He's live in this spot. And what's a Derby without Zito anyway?

[Bignick63]

I agree about Friesian Fire. Here's where I'm thinking:

Papa Clem

Free Country

Patena




-Nick

www.nickborg.com

[FlyinLate]

Rumor has it Papa Clem did NOT ship well. Kickin + Screaming the whole flight from what I have heard.
I'll try to update you guys on how he settles.

[OTM Al]

Why are so many people still so high on Free Country? I don't get this. He didn't run a lick last time and there is nothing that I can see that can be used as a real excuse.

I fully believe Papa Clem and Patena are going to be wayyyyyyy overbet. I don't have as much faith in Clem's adaptability, though I think he is good. I do kind of like Patena, but not sure how right he is.

Everything points me in this race toward Flying Pegasus and, unfortunately, Fresian Fire, who I really don't care for, but trying to be impassionate about.

Giant Oak should be preparing for the turf season but I worry he's going to get ruined on the dirt.

[Watcher]

Papa Clem flew in Wednesday from California, where he finished second to Pioneerof the Nile in last month's Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Like Flying Pegasus and Friesan Fire, Papa Clem prefers to lay close to the pace. Papa Clem merely walked the shed row on Thursday.

"He kicked the back of the plane when he flew, but it looks like everything's all right," said his trainer, Gary Stute. -DRF.com
http://drf.com/news/article/102204.html

[Robert Fischer]

Why are so many people still so high on Free Country? I don't get this. He didn't run a lick last time and there is nothing that I can see that can be used as a real excuse.

If I am digging for positives, with Free Country - he does have some stamina on his female side of his pedigree, and he has won at 9F.
In the Sam F Davis, he not have a bad trip, but a bunch of little things could have slightly hurt his performance - the rail got closed off, he had to switch out and others got the jump on him establishing better position, he entered behind a wall of horses and "got a lot more dirt than daylight".
blase blase he didn't like the "deep" tampa track and has been working well recently...

To be honest, his 1st two races weren't all that fast, and in the 9f win he got an easy trip. One way to look at his form (and it is fairly accurate) is that Free Country ran about the same race at least his last two efforts. In the Sam F Davis he just didn't get as easy a trip, vs. better, and the race was shorter so his stamina advantage helped less.

I think if he is ridden conservatively he could run 3rd or 4th if some things go his way.

[OTM Al]

I can believe a picking up the pieces 3rd or 4th I guess as those spots can often be wide open. Just get the feeling he won't add a lot of value there given the way people still are stuck on his early season hype.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Flying Pegasus wins this; 8/1 on the ML but you won't get that at post.

[dylbert]

Does anybody know if FG is going to have any guaranteed pools or an all-stakes pick 4 or anything like that? Thanks.Yes. $50,000 Guaranteed Pick 5 starts with Race 5 and $100,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 starts with Race 6. And, usually FG prices these at $0.50!

Good luck tomorrow -- I am in New Orleans tonight for tomorrow's card. Hopefully, rain will stay north of city through Saturday afternoon.

[WinterTriangle]

I am in New Orleans tonight for tomorrow's card. Hopefully, rain will stay north of city through Saturday afternoon.

My bro just drove up to AR from down by NOLA. Raining all the way toay. If you live in LA you know the ground doesn't suck it up. :)

For Oaklawn, and Fairgrounds, figure either soup or wet track. I'm in AR and it's raining now again.


I'm going with Terrain, Freisan Fire, Patena, and Giant Oak. I think the Giant might bring it this time!

[philofbelloni]

The all stakes P4 starting on R6 has a 100K guarantee.
Rachel Alexandre the only single but Flying Spur had an interesting Beyer on sloppy track last time out.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

80% chance of rain; this will be a wet track.

[dylbert]

Still not a drop here in Harahan... Low pressure has pulled north into southern Mississippi. Most rain remains west of South Shore with most rain on North Shore. Low pressure system appears to moving northeast away from NOLA which greatly lessens chance of substantial (or sustained) rain here.

Two local forecasters have stuck with NO RAIN forecast. One has tabbed precip at less than 0.25 inch. I am going with chalk here -- NO RAIN!

[smokinjoe@bp]

Still not a drop here in Harahan... Low pressure has pulled north into southern Mississippi. Most rain remains west of South Shore with most rain on North Shore. Low pressure system appears to moving northeast away from NOLA which greatly lessens chance of substantial (or sustained) rain here.

Two local forecasters have stuck with NO RAIN forecast. One has tabbed precip at less than 0.25 inch. I am going with chalk here -- NO RAIN!

thats good news,where i live 45 miles from new orleans we have had no rain also,i guess i will be coming to the city for the races today. the rain was going to keep me away.

[keilan]

I like two horses today & they could run 1 - 2


#1 Free Country
#8 Papa Clem

[Watcher]

Any word on the weather so far today? Read 60% chance of precipitation.

[bobphilo]

1) Friesian Fire is the horse to beat here off his numbers and victories in the Lecomte and Risen Star.

2) Flying Pegasus was a game 2nd to FF in last despite wide trip and coming off the lay-off in first route attempt. Might turn the tables here.

3) Papa Clem comes off a good 2nd in the Robt Lewis, where he defeated I Want Revenge. Will be dangerous if he also likes dirt.

Other contenders to watch out for include Patena, who has just been taken over by Dutrow, and Giant Oak who had a troubled trip as favorite in the Risen Star.

Good luck all,

Bob

[bobphilo]

1) Friesian Fire is the horse to beat here off his numbers and victories in the Lecomte and Risen Star.

2) Flying Pegasus was a game 2nd to FF in last despite wide trip and coming off the lay-off in first route attempt. Might turn the tables here.

3) Papa Clem comes off a good 2nd in the Robt Lewis, where he defeated I Want Revenge. Will be dangerous if he also likes dirt.

Other contenders to watch out for include Patena, who has just been taken over by Dutrow, and Giant Oak who had a troubled trip as favorite in the Risen Star.

Good luck all,

Bob

I'm leaning towards using the top 3 in the Exacta and if the odds justify it, boxing them.

Bob

[Robert Fischer]

Friesan Fire and Patena

tossing Giant oak from exacta

Tris/Supers Using Free Country and Uno Mas 3rd or 4th

[Robert Fischer]

Friesan Fire might start being #1 on a lot of people's list after this.

[Sundown]

Let's wait to see what his stablemate does in a few minutes, but he did look good.

[Watcher]

y69MpTLv-rE

[WinterTriangle]

The footage showed the track was slop. But FF kicked it. :jump:

Was happy to see Giant Oak and Terrain hit the board.

Pappa Clem surprised me, good on him to run in that sloppy dirt and come in 2nd. I'm impressed.

[overthehill]

ff was awesome but how could the fractions be right? 1:13 and change for 6 and 1:33 and change for a mile.? and then 1 1/16 in 142 something? hope someone else timed the splits. in any event a replay of that in the derby would get it done im pretty sure.

[smokinjoe@bp]

i was most impressed today with rachel alexandra's win,just a tad slower than friesan fire,and thats with calvin borel pulling up at waving at crowd as he was closing in on wire,i would like to see connections give this filly a shot at the boys,,i seriously think they would have a tough time beating her(she;s a monster.

[CincyHorseplayer]

i was most impressed today with rachel alexandra's win,just a tad slower than friesan fire,and thats with calvin borel pulling up at waving at crowd as he was closing in on wire,i would like to see connections give this filly a shot at the boys,,i seriously think they would have a tough time beating her(she;s a monster.

The pace was faster in the filly race too with nearly identical come home times.But they weren't unparallel to the older horse stakes routes on the day,time-wise..I guess the fig guys will let us know.

I didn't handicap this race til about 6 oclock this morning and was caught up in the baffling Tampa Berby when this race was set to blow so I just made an $18 dollar play using Friesan Fire(loved the :58 B work)over/under what I felt was the other class of the field Papa Clem ($8-4 exactas) with $1 boxes on 9-3,9-5,9-6.Was happy to get $173.60 on a fumbling last minute bet:)