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View Full Version : TAMPA WHAT THE #$%#@ DOWNS ??


NY BRED
03-06-2009, 07:37 PM
TIME TO INVESTIGATE THIS PAYOFF

#OF ENTRIES:10


PP WIN PLACE SHOW

7 33.00 13.20 10.80

4 40.80 17.60

10 16.60

EXACTA 327.00

TRI 14,680


no way in hell does this exacta make sense,unless you were lucky to be "in"

:bang:

Golf and Horses
03-06-2009, 08:41 PM
It does raise an eyebrow. Compare it to another race today.

1st Race - 11 horse field

2 - 22-1
12- 9/2
ex. $578.80
pool 71,270

5th Race - 10 horse field

7 - 15-1
4 - 47-1
ex. $327.20
pool $139,085

Ian Meyers
03-06-2009, 09:14 PM
It does raise an eyebrow. Compare it to another race today.

I bet the race and cashed the exacta (but only for $2) so it wasn't my money driving down the price. ;) The win prices on the 1st and 2nd place finishers were tremendously inflated because some (lots of??) knucklehead(s) made a legitimate 5/2 shot with a very slim edge in figures 1/2 on the board. The winner was 2nd fastest going in and should have been no more than 5 or 6 to 1.

My guess is the winner was about 6 or 7/1 in the exacta pool. All the exactas with him on top were way shorter than the win odds would indicate. They just went nuts on the #3 in the win pool.

My two cents FWIW.

Golf and Horses
03-06-2009, 09:19 PM
I bet the race and cashed the exacta (but only for $2) so it wasn't my money driving down the price. ;) The win prices on the 1st and 2nd place finishers were tremendously inflated because some (lots of??) knucklehead(s) made a legitimate 5/2 shot with a very slim edge in figures 1/2 on the board. The winner was 2nd fastest going in and should have been no more than 5 or 6 to 1.

My guess is the winner was about 6 or 7/1 in the exacta pool. All the exactas with him on top were way shorter than the win odds would indicate. They just went nuts on the #3 in the win pool.

My two cents FWIW.
That makes sense. BTW nice hit!:ThmbUp:

NY BRED
03-07-2009, 08:12 AM
That makes sense. BTW nice hit!:ThmbUp:


Sorry, it doesn't make sense.

The tri and super is where the real money pays when bet properly


While the tri ,and somewat the super are realistic payoffs the exacta blatantly is not based upon the place AND show prices..


PS I just watched the replay on TVG on my Tivo, and Matt Caruthers, one
of the few commentators that shoots from the hip echoed these sentiments.

Maybe some authority lurking here would care to look at this result

Valuist
03-07-2009, 08:17 AM
I bet the race and cashed the exacta (but only for $2) so it wasn't my money driving down the price. ;) The win prices on the 1st and 2nd place finishers were tremendously inflated because some (lots of??) knucklehead(s) made a legitimate 5/2 shot with a very slim edge in figures 1/2 on the board. The winner was 2nd fastest going in and should have been no more than 5 or 6 to 1.

My guess is the winner was about 6 or 7/1 in the exacta pool. All the exactas with him on top were way shorter than the win odds would indicate. They just went nuts on the #3 in the win pool.

My two cents FWIW.

I didn't see the race but I bet you are right in that there was a severely underlaid horse which distorted the win pool odds. When there is a head scratching payoff, that usually is the case.

rrbauer
03-07-2009, 10:00 AM
Sorry, it doesn't make sense.

The tri and super is where the real money pays when bet properly


While the tri ,and somewat the super are realistic payoffs the exacta blatantly is not based upon the place AND show prices..


PS I just watched the replay on TVG on my Tivo, and Matt Caruthers, one
of the few commentators that shoots from the hip echoed these sentiments.

Maybe some authority lurking here would care to look at this result

What does the exacta have to do with place and show prices?

BombsAway Bob
03-07-2009, 11:11 AM
(Note: REDBOARDING OCCURING HERE)
I paid a bit of attention to that race, since I have #4,Immortal Wink on my TVG watchlist (off his dirt race 2 back).
Both the #7 & the #4 came out of the same race, a tougher turf allowance. Wink finished 4th, beating the #7 by less than a half length. Anyone (except me) using either the #7 or the #4 on an exacta ticket probably used the other one.
Not ME! I had a Dimesuper: A-A-7-4=$5.60 Smart, Ain't I?

Figman
03-07-2009, 01:51 PM
The pools win pool and the exacta pool are NOT related! The odds on a horse are only determined by the WIN pool and nothing else.
Look a Thursday's daily double from Saratoga Harness.....$43.60.
The two winners paid $2.30 and $5.00!

SARATOGA HARNESS RESULTS
Thursday, March 05, 2009
FIRST RACE
Condition: 5 Year Olds & Younger NW 1 Pari-mutuel Race Lifetime
Gait: Pace Purse: $3,600 Class: NW1PMLT Dis: 1 Mile Track Cond: FT Temp-Allow: 30-0 Off Time: 7:07 PM
HN Horse Meds PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 STR FIN Time Last Q Odds Driver Trainer
7 BUNNY'S LEGACY 7 5-5 1o-1 1-2 1-2 1-1H 2:01.4 29.4 *.15 Jo Stark Jr Jo Stark Jr

SECOND RACE
Condition: Claiming Allowance $5000
Gait: Trot Purse: $4,000 Class: 5000CL Dis: 1 Mile Track Cond: FT Temp-Allow: 30-0 Off Time: 7:27 PM
HN Horse Meds PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 STR FIN Time Last Q Odds Driver Trainer
1 CHAKRA BABY 1 3-2H 4-3 4-3 3-1 1-1H 2:01.4 29.3 *1.50 He Westbrook III He Westbrook III

DAILY DOUBLE 7-1 43.60

whyhorseofcourse
03-07-2009, 01:53 PM
I couldnt believe it...
either someone is really stupid and cashed huge (which is not the case) or someone has some inside info...
There had to be a lot of smart tickets in this pool...
Something to look out for next time.

CincyHorseplayer
03-07-2009, 02:08 PM
If anybody was looking at the exacta payoffs before the race it will be contained in your history.Anybody have the payoffs from a few minutes before post time???

I understand what people are saying about the payoffs.If there was an inflated place payoff due to another horse being overbet it doesn't necessarily reflect what was happenning in the exacta pool.That could be the only explanation for the disparity.

Robert Fischer
03-07-2009, 02:14 PM
Its good to question and investigate

but Ian hit the nail on the head

My guess is the winner was about 6 or 7/1 in the exacta pool. All the exactas with him on top were way shorter than the win odds would indicate. They just went nuts on the #3 in the win pool.

A lot of times a horse will be bet differently in the win and exacta pools.

Its up to the bettor to check the exacta probables, just like you would a win odds. Now if the exacta probables were showing $950 when the went in the gate, and then drop to $320 mid race - there is call for alarm.

JCB
03-07-2009, 03:37 PM
Tampa is and always has been a heavy betting track. Things like this happen a lot.

Whoever cashed missed the 65-1 shot for third so only had the exacta.

The Super was 7-4-10-All so it was a fair payoff.

But the 3, 5, and 6, who were the favorites and were all front runners, figured to get into a speed duel and maybe cook each other, so a smart handicapper could have played that angle, tossed them all, and had the exacta by wheeling the winner with others.

Shemp Howard
03-07-2009, 05:31 PM
Bernie Madoff's lucky numbers are 7 and 4.


I hear he has a TVG account and plays TB from his apartment every day.

:eek:

NY BRED
03-08-2009, 07:26 AM
What does the exacta have to do with place and show prices?


Logically, nothing at this point asNot I couldn't monitor the exactas, but the
real point is simply:


Ten horse field and making a cold exacta?

The underlying point is the cold exacta maneuver avoids a taxable payoff
enabling the party(parties) in the coupe to make as much as betting
the tri or super at the expense of the public.

I generally look for value plays based on odds,pace ,speed ,trainer patterns
etc, but I would believe most handicappers would be skeptical before
plunging on such a depressed exacta based upon the payoff.If it were
that much of a value, I'd be looking at a win bet for each horse ,or
for values in the pick three tris or super.


Payback would have been the Public did follow the lead set by owner(s)
of this exacta and made it 50.00 ..

slihawk
03-08-2009, 09:42 AM
Did you see what the DD paid in the 8th with this hourse $6,000 !!!!

Cangamble
03-08-2009, 10:50 AM
TIME TO INVESTIGATE THIS PAYOFF

#OF ENTRIES:10


PP WIN PLACE SHOW

7 33.00 13.20 10.80

4 40.80 17.60

10 16.60

EXACTA 327.00

TRI 14,680


no way in hell does this exacta make sense,unless you were lucky to be "in"

:bang:
Both the winner and the second horse came off the same race and both race (they finished a neck apart) and earned pretty good TSN numbers as well, probably BRIS and Beyers weren't bad either.


The third horse came from an entirely different race though, and the favorite was out, which usually makes a big difference on triactor payoffs.

slihawk
03-08-2009, 11:25 AM
Proad Aly should of been the 2nd choice in this race like an earlier poster stated. Tampa's exacta defy logic sometimes. Look at the 1st race on Friday that one came back inflated sometimes its in your favor sometimes it's not.

Cangamble
03-08-2009, 11:31 AM
Proad Aly should of been the 2nd choice in this race like an earlier poster stated. Tampa's exacta defy logic sometimes. Look at the 1st race on Friday that one came back inflated sometimes its in your favor sometimes it's not.
I actually watched the race replay of the Aly race going into this one. The horse blew the first turn a bit, and ran greenly even out of the gate.
Still, Aly finished a neck away from the horse who wound up second in the race in question. Many people who liked either of the two horses were probably compelled to play the ex with both horses.

highnote
03-08-2009, 11:42 AM
7 33.00 13.20 10.80

4 40.80 17.60

10 16.60

EXACTA 327.00




EDIT -- forget my last post. The price was listed as $327 on the toteboard. Someone incorrectly looked at the data. :blush: