Recession call....

[PaceAdvantage]

Ok, anyone who has been paying attention around here know I butted heads with a few of our more vocal members over whether or not (at the time) we were in a recession.

I maintained that we were not, because we hadn't seen monthly job loss numbers on par with prior recessions, plus we hadn't gotten even one quarter of negative GDP growth. This is going back over a year+

OK, fast forward to some months ago when it was reported that the recession was OFFICIALLY deemed to have started way back in December of 2007. This sort of backed up my adversaries and shat upon my argument, but I point out that we finally did get our two consecutive months of negative GDP growth with the last quarter of 2008. That is also the time (coincidentally) when monthly job loss numbers picked up and approached traditional recessionary levels.

So, with all of that said...if the recession was said to have officially started way back in December of 2007, what are we in NOW? I believe there is no argument in saying we are in way worse shape NOW than fifteen months ago.

If 12/07 was a recession, what is 3/08? There wasn't a hint of negative GDP in 12/07, nowhere near recessionary job losses to report....

[DJofSD]

Friday's job loss report promises to be a whopper. Let's see how the 2Q09 goes job loss-wise. If we're able to keep it relatively flat month over month during the quarter, we might just be able to call it an extended recession.

[ddog]

Pa


we are still in a deep recession.
I see no inconsistency in that notion.
There is not a depression , so I don't know what else to call it at this point.

I really think the past measures, relying on job losses just did not factor in the difference in the type of employment and the fragile nature of the funding in many businesses.

That along with other "stuff" which I am not going to detail makes this "one' unlike , in measurement the last several.

Although, you are correct , the job figures are about the same now.

of course given the large increase in the job base maybe we need to see 1.2 million or so now to equate to your 600K.

???


don't know, i hope not.

[slewis]

Donald Trump flat out called it a depression. He isn't the spokesperson of the free world but lately he's been making some very accurate statements.

He stated recently how other countries (like China) play us for fools.
They conduct business so the import/export ratios are highly in their favor.
They make it difficult to do business (Japan too) there, and it's one way traffic.

Truth is boys we're in a situation that we've never remotely faced before.

When I was trading and economic data would come out differently then what was expected, after taking a position, squaring up, or trying to hedge..I'd get a cup of coffee and think for at least 1/2 hour.
The question I'd always ask myself is "in six month's, where will we be" (meaning various indexes in the markets). I'd construct a new strategy and move from there.

If I were trading now... I couldn't remotely imagine where we'll be in six month's.

When the market first really tanked, people were posting where they thought the bottom would be. Most settled, if I remember correctly, around the 7000-8000 level.
It wouldn't shock me to see it much much lower.

Currently, the Bomb has gone off and the dust still hasen't settled.
What I'm REALLY REALLY scared of is what is going to happen AFTER the dust clears, and we find how bad it really is.. not to mention the mistakes (my opinion) they are making.

Just for the record.... (and I'd love to hear what others think) the BIGGEST mistake they are making is artificially proping real estate prices up.

[DJofSD]

I'm sure he would call it a depression. Checked out how badly commercial real estate is right now?

No offense, but I really don't think the Donald lives in the same world as you or I. He can have his opinion but it doesn't apply to my world.

[ddog]

the way the trumper is/was leveraged(i suspect) , any slow down is a depression to him. ;)


i think the biggest mistake , ongoing, is the failure to "DO" the top 5-10 banks.

Most of them maybe insolvent or maybe they could limp along and survive, but i think they have to take one for the team and get taken over and redone.

We can't kill their creditors or we will take out the world so we need to flush the boards and put in what's needed and go from there.

I have no idea what that "needed" is.

I do agree that trying to prop the home market is dumb.
Too bad that we went all in on that market in the past, it had to come out badly.

The other thing is the fed needs to stop with the whatever is required attitude, i think it has built in such a desire to play games and wait out or see if you can force the fed's hand that actions that may be taken by private players are being put off.

They think it is calming, i think it's scared more than calmed.

[ddog]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alwTE0Z5.1EA&refer=home


March 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Chicago Transit Authority retirement plan had a $1.5 billion hole in its stash of assets in 2007. At the height of a four-year bull market, it didn’t have enough cash on hand to pay its retirees through 2013, meaning it was underfunded to the tune of 62 percent.

The CTA, which manages the second-largest public transit system in the U.S., had to hope for a huge contribution from the Illinois state legislature. That wasn’t going to happen.

Then the authority found an answer.

“We’ve identified the problem and a solution,” said CTA Chairman Carole Brown on April 16, 2007. The agency decided to raise money from a bond sale.

A year later, it asked Illinois Auditor General William Holland to research its plan. The state hired an actuary, did a study and, on July 17, concluded that the sale of bonds would most likely result in a loss of taxpayers’ money.

Thirteen days after that, the CTA ignored the warning and issued $1.9 billion in bonds. Before the year ended, the pension fund was paying out more to bondholders than it was earning on its new influx of money. Instead of closing its funding gap, the CTA was falling further behind.

Public pension funds across the U.S. are hiding the size of a crisis that’s been looming for years. Retirement plans play accounting games with numbers, giving the illusion that the funds are healthy.

The paper alchemy gives governors and legislators the easy choice to contribute too little or nothing to the funds, year after year.

30 Percent Shortfall

The misleading numbers posted by retirement fund administrators help mask this reality: Public pensions in the U.S. had total liabilities of $2.9 trillion as of Dec. 16, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Their total assets are about 30 percent less than that, at $2 trillion.

With stock market losses this year, public pensions in the U.S. are now underfunded by more than $1 trillion.

That lack of funds explains why dozens of retirement plans in the U.S. have issued more than $50 billion in pension obligation bonds during the past 25 years -- more than half of them since 1997 -- public records show.

The quick fix for pension funds becomes a future albatross for taxpayers

[RichieP]

When the market first really tanked, people were posting where they thought the bottom would be. Most settled, if I remember correctly, around the 7000-8000 level.


I believe MANY months ago I called the bottom here at 5,000 which is exactly where we are heading. Never saw a fancy chart with all those pretty lines and the like.

Strictly intuitive "thinking ahead" type stuff I learned from possibly the greatest intuitive thinker of the last 100+years Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw. Plain and simple thank you Jimmy :ThmbUp:

Newsflash - If the gov't does not stop creating artificial realities with these bailouts(Btw this was done by BOTH Repubs and Dems ok?) we will be heading to complete disaster territory of 3,500 when rioting and MUCH worse will break out on our streets all across the land.

1) We need a TRUE indicator of the real estate pricing today. It simply does not exist with the nonsense going on.

2) Companies need to fail

3) EVERY penny of the stimulus should have gone to job creation and growing the tax base which is a far cry from what exists.

4) We need to make things HERE again and the only way is for a major restructuring of pay scales etc. Want to know why this will NOT happen man? See #5 below and take it to the bank. :ThmbDown:

5) The "me-me-me" generation needs to study the actions of our fathers and grandparents who made up the "greatest generation" where SACRIFICES where made for their children and grandchildren.

** A POSITIVE that will be coming from these depressionary times will be the FORCED coming together and a reuniting of sorts of the FAMILY. We will need the financial support and closeness in order to SURVIVE plain and simple. A chance for many to find a peace and love with our loved ones that might have slipped away due to the materialistic "chase" that has been going on for decades.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQbCMnonioA

[RichieP]

I believe MANY months ago I called the bottom here at 5,000 which is exactly where we are heading. Never saw a fancy chart with all those pretty lines and the like.

Strictly intuitive "thinking ahead" type stuff I learned from possibly the greatest intuitive thinker of the last 100+years Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw. Plain and simple thank you Jimmy :ThmbUp:

Newsflash - If the gov't does not stop creating artificial realities with these bailouts(Btw this was done by BOTH Repubs and Dems ok?) we will be heading to complete disaster territory of 3,500 when rioting and MUCH worse will break out on our streets all across the land.

1) We need a TRUE indicator of the real estate pricing today. It simply does not exist with the nonsense going on.

2) Companies need to fail

3) EVERY penny of the stimulus should have gone to job creation and growing the tax base which is a far cry from what exists.

4) We need to make things HERE again and the only way is for a major restructuring of pay scales etc. Want to know why this will NOT happen man? See #5 below and take it to the bank. :ThmbDown:

5) The "me-me-me" generation needs to study the actions of our fathers and grandparents who made up the "greatest generation" where SACRIFICES where made for their children and grandchildren.

** A POSITIVE that will be coming from these depressionary times will be the FORCED coming together and a reuniting of sorts of the FAMILY. We will need the financial support and closeness in order to SURVIVE plain and simple. A chance for many to find a peace and love with our loved ones that might have slipped away due to the materialistic "chase" that has been going on for decades.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQbCMnonioA

Forgot to say this:
I wish everyone LOVE!
:)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWHHHh8z7Ss

[HUSKER55]

when I was in college the instructors used to tell a story of people in appalachia didn't know there was a depression because they didn't have radios or tv so life continued on. Is there anyone here who has not heard that one?

My point is, who is doing what to who? More importantly, how? It is always about the jobs and the corporations but the money goes to Wall Street, the Banks and the auto industry.

Construction season is around the corner but I don't think you will see more than any other year.

I still maintain this is smoke and mirrors. Let these corporations fail. Let the market work. If government gets involved we will have more problems.

If the American taxpayer is in trouble then take that money and give it to the taxpayer and let the market adjust.


We are playing a deadly game by guaranteeing success for the "elite". THAT is what this stimulus package is all about.

Play all the word games and head games you want. Ask yourself this. If you were president could you come up with a better workable and do able plan that woulld have far greater impact for the PFC (poor f***ing civlian).


Of course you could. So why isn't it being done? We can't all be THAT wrong. The gov is not that smart and we are not that dumb.


Smoke and mirrors.


JMHO

[Relwob Owner]

Donald Trump flat out called it a depression. He isn't the spokesperson of the free world but lately he's been making some very accurate statements.

He stated recently how other countries (like China) play us for fools.
They conduct business so the import/export ratios are highly in their favor.
They make it difficult to do business (Japan too) there, and it's one way traffic.

Truth is boys we're in a situation that we've never remotely faced before.

When I was trading and economic data would come out differently then what was expected, after taking a position, squaring up, or trying to hedge..I'd get a cup of coffee and think for at least 1/2 hour.
The question I'd always ask myself is "in six month's, where will we be" (meaning various indexes in the markets). I'd construct a new strategy and move from there.

If I were trading now... I couldn't remotely imagine where we'll be in six month's.

When the market first really tanked, people were posting where they thought the bottom would be. Most settled, if I remember correctly, around the 7000-8000 level.
It wouldn't shock me to see it much much lower.

Currently, the Bomb has gone off and the dust still hasen't settled.
What I'm REALLY REALLY scared of is what is going to happen AFTER the dust clears, and we find how bad it really is.. not to mention the mistakes (my opinion) they are making.

Just for the record.... (and I'd love to hear what others think) the BIGGEST mistake they are making is artificially proping real estate prices up.



Slewis,


You are one outspoken guy and I like that......you hit the nail on the head with everything you said----my Grandfather is 92 and he told me a year and a half ago to get all my dough out of the Stock Market because the times reminded him of how it was just before the Great Depression.....he was right.

Im not FRepublican or Democrat but man, is the Obama crew making things worse with propping up real estate and everything else. they are helping the people who bought houses they shouldnt have as well and screwing those of us who responsibly bought houses they could afford. This administration is better in the sense that it isnt as trigger happy and the President seems to be awake most of the time.....however, they remind me of a bunch of CEO's that put out massive policies that have no chance of really working

[slewis]

I believe MANY months ago I called the bottom here at 5,000 which is exactly where we are heading. Never saw a fancy chart with all those pretty lines and the like.

Strictly intuitive "thinking ahead" type stuff I learned from possibly the greatest intuitive thinker of the last 100+years Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw. Plain and simple thank you Jimmy :ThmbUp:

Newsflash - If the gov't does not stop creating artificial realities with these bailouts(Btw this was done by BOTH Repubs and Dems ok?) we will be heading to complete disaster territory of 3,500 when rioting and MUCH worse will break out on our streets all across the land.

1) We need a TRUE indicator of the real estate pricing today. It simply does not exist with the nonsense going on.

2) Companies need to fail

3) EVERY penny of the stimulus should have gone to job creation and growing the tax base which is a far cry from what exists.

4) We need to make things HERE again and the only way is for a major restructuring of pay scales etc. Want to know why this will NOT happen man? See #5 below and take it to the bank. :ThmbDown:

5) The "me-me-me" generation needs to study the actions of our fathers and grandparents who made up the "greatest generation" where SACRIFICES where made for their children and grandchildren.

** A POSITIVE that will be coming from these depressionary times will be the FORCED coming together and a reuniting of sorts of the FAMILY. We will need the financial support and closeness in order to SURVIVE plain and simple. A chance for many to find a peace and love with our loved ones that might have slipped away due to the materialistic "chase" that has been going on for decades.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQbCMnonioA


Richie P...Great points!:ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

We may very well already be in a Depression. There was a professor from Harvard on Fast Money last night who studied several hundred market downturns in economies around the world, and thru the end of 2008, the likelihood we'd see a recession was 20%. Now, he says due to further market declines, the probability is now over 30%. Basically 2-1.

[slewis]

We may very well already be in a Depression. There was a professor from Harvard on Fast Money last night who studied several hundred market downturns in economies around the world, and thru the end of 2008, the likelihood we'd see a recession was 20%. Now, he says due to further market declines, the probability is now over 30%. Basically 2-1.

Value,

Do you mean recession?? or depression??

[DJofSD]

The Harvard prof on FM yesterday was talking about depression.

[Greyfox]

"Brother, Can You Spare a Dime," lyrics by Yip Harburg, music by Jay Gorney (1931)

They used to tell me I was building a dream, and so I followed the mob, When there was earth to plow, or guns to bear, I was always there right on the job. They used to tell me I was building a dream, with peace and glory ahead, Why should I be standing in line, just waiting for bread?

Once I built a railroad, I made it run, made it race against time. Once I built a railroad; now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime? Once I built a tower, up to the sun, brick, and rivet, and lime; Once I built a tower, now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime?

Once in khaki suits, gee we looked swell, Full of that Yankee Doodly Dum, Half a million boots went slogging through Hell, And I was the kid with the drum!

Say, don't you remember, they called me Al; it was Al all the time. Why don't you remember, I'm your pal? Buddy, can you spare a dime?

[ddog]

well the points Rp layed out were fine as far as they go, the problem is if the true bottom of the housing and MUCH more than housing needs to BOTTOM , it always has been much more than just housing then the bottoming process could bring the 3500 or lower and the destruction of trillions more so you may end up there in any case.


If that's the facts on the ground ( I think that is)then do you let it go down NOW with the riots or do you try to fade down and keep the riots small?

The gvt has taken the 2nd option, it's just that simple to me.

The country at the macro financial level is insolvent already , just the velocity is what they are trying to control now.


AND, WE MAY BE IN BETTER SHAPE THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORLD.

Let that sink in.

love or not , there could be hell to pay.

I see the other point of view as people unwilling to think THEY are going to have to pay THE TAB for their past decade or two long FREE party.

It's easier to lay it on gvt policies now than to accept THE TAB now.

[RaceBookJoe]

Donald Trump flat out called it a depression. He isn't the spokesperson of the free world but lately he's been making some very accurate statements.

He stated recently how other countries (like China) play us for fools.
They conduct business so the import/export ratios are highly in their favor.
They make it difficult to do business (Japan too) there, and it's one way traffic.

Truth is boys we're in a situation that we've never remotely faced before.

When I was trading and economic data would come out differently then what was expected, after taking a position, squaring up, or trying to hedge..I'd get a cup of coffee and think for at least 1/2 hour.
The question I'd always ask myself is "in six month's, where will we be" (meaning various indexes in the markets). I'd construct a new strategy and move from there.

If I were trading now... I couldn't remotely imagine where we'll be in six month's.

When the market first really tanked, people were posting where they thought the bottom would be. Most settled, if I remember correctly, around the 7000-8000 level.
It wouldn't shock me to see it much much lower.

Currently, the Bomb has gone off and the dust still hasen't settled.
What I'm REALLY REALLY scared of is what is going to happen AFTER the dust clears, and we find how bad it really is.. not to mention the mistakes (my opinion) they are making.

Just for the record.... (and I'd love to hear what others think) the BIGGEST mistake they are making is artificially proping real estate prices up.

Nice post. First we should just call this the "Great Recession" , not in depression mode just yet...but that depends on who you are talking to. The levels might drop to the 4000 level, even 3000....terrible for people getting ready to retire in the next few years...i feel really bad for them. Last, ikf you were still trading...you would NOT be looking 6 months down the road....6 days would be "Long Term" , 6 hours would be a trade. Very hard market to read, have to react. A few things to focus on would be BPI charts...especially in P&F mode. best of luck rbj

[JustRalph]

My wife's restaurant set a new record for Sales on a Saturday night last week.......... 81k............ ? This is one Topsy Turvy depression I can tell you

[Valuist]

Value,

Do you mean recession?? or depression??

The odds were of us having/being in a Depression with a D. We've been in a recession for over a year.