Gotham --- Your Thoughts ?

[toetoe]

Start with Haynesfield. Shot or no shot ?

[OTM Al]

Shot. Clearly likes the track and has shown speed. Balanced with the fact though he hasn't faced much yet. Definitely not a throwout. But many in this race may have that tag. One of the best renewals of the race in some time

[Robert Fischer]

Start with Haynesfield. Shot or no shot ?
I think Haynesfield is going to quit.

Masala is an interesting horse. He's handled the wide variety thrown at him very well, and Pletcher is no longer a toss the last couple months.

Imperial Council - i have doubts, but how can you toss such a talented runner in this spot?

Mr. Fantasy - I really don't know a lot about him. He just hasn't eliminated himself yet, and he looks good on paper and replay.

[W2G]

Haynesfield was scheduled to work Monday but didn't. His prior works are glacial so maybe missing one isn't a big deal. I don't see a Gotham win in his future, and even using underneath may be risky against these. I think he fades.

[toetoe]

I agree that this renewal is the best in quite a while. More like a Wood Memorial running. :ThmbUp: .

[cnollfan]

I have been waiting to bet against Haynesfield -- one easy phony trip after another.

[OTM Al]

Haynesfield was scheduled to work Monday but didn't. His prior works are glacial so maybe missing one isn't a big deal. I don't see a Gotham win in his future, and even using underneath may be risky against these. I think he fades.

Monday was beyond horrible here and had there been racing scheduled it would have been cancelled, so don't let that fact influence you too much.

[HuskyDomains]

On paper, Mr. Fantasy should win this race running away. None of the others are even close in my opinion

But races aren't run on paper, and the distance is the question.

Still.. My money is on Mr. Fantasy W/P/S and all over the gimmicks on Sat

[W2G]

Monday was beyond horrible here and had there been racing scheduled it would have been cancelled, so don't let that fact influence you too much.

Sure, it was due to weather, but is missing a scheduled work ever a good thing? Haynesfield will need a career best performance to top this eclectic, talented field and I just don't think he's sitting on a big one. More likely to regress I feel.

[rokitman]

On paper, Mr. Fantasy should win this race running away. None of the others are even close in my opinion

But races aren't run on paper, and the distance is the question.

Still.. My money is on Mr. Fantasy W/P/S and all over the gimmicks on Sat

E Dubai Jr. might be a real monster.

[SmartyJ]

On paper, Mr. Fantasy should win this race running away. None of the others are even close in my opinion

But races aren't run on paper, and the distance is the question.

Still.. My money is on Mr. Fantasy W/P/S and all over the gimmicks on Sat

Good article on Bloodhorse about Mr. Fantasy. Looks like he could be the real deal. Saturday could tell.

[rokitman]

Just noticed that Axel Foley has turned up in the Kirian McL barn from Doug O'neill's out in CA. Seems a bit odd.

[tribecaagent]

This horse interests me for several reasons.
1) I liked his race two back, in the Cal. Derby against Chocolate Candy. He settled, made a run, and was just crying out for more real estate.
2) Last time, with the blinker experiment, his trip was compromised. Tomorrow the blinks are back off.
3) First time dirt; being by Officer out of a Clever Trick mare suggests dirt, even though his synthetic races have been okay.
4) First time McLaughlin - nuff said.

I'm fully aware of him being slower than these, but with Mr. Fantasy in there, Migliore will be instructed to let him settle and make a run.

15-1 ML with all the markings of a "jump up".

[rokitman]

That's a good point about dirt. That move probably was a move off CA's synthetic circuit.

[oddsmaven]

In a top race like this, I would almost always select someone who is sharp enough to have won his last race

Mr. Fantasy has beaten up state-bred inner track/winter stock...that's not a good recipe...sure he could be "any kind" but his odds will not be a bargain & he has not been tested like he will here.

Haynesfield seems suspect...those were unusually poor renewals of the Count Fleet & Whirlaway that he beat...since he did demolish them, I would allow that he's a decent threat.

If I Want Revenge had won the RB Lewis, I'd look to try him despite the surface switch because of his class but I think he's tailed off.

Imperial Council looks solid and may go off around 5:2, barring any key scratches...I believe facing & beating Gulfstream allowance company sets him up well.

[BlueShoe]

Love Haynesfield.No telling where this win machine will level off.Only one in the field that has beaten previous winners above the first level allowance around two turns,and has done it three times.Mr.Foley only beat NY bred bottom allowance types,Imperial Council only one sprint prep,and I Want Revenge never raced on dirt and ships from SA,the one to beat if he takes to inner dirt.Haynesfield should revert to stalking tactics as in his easy Count Fleet win,not send and duel in this speedier field.

[BeatTheChalk]

Start with Haynesfield. Shot or no shot ?

There are several horses that merit getting the old SWEEP COMMENT in
the DRF = " Can't Fault all Recent. " I don't have a pick ..but I am
surprised that the COUNCIL horse is the Morning Line Favorite. :bang:

I follow line makers at 5 tracks .. and the person at Aqueduct can not
be taken Lightly. Same for Native Dancer, Doctor Fager, Secretariat and
Easy Goer .. Good nite from St Louis .

[samyn on the green]

Haynesfield has no shot. You might as well take a match to the bankroll, Haynesfield will not win this race. Love Haynesfield.No telling where this win machine will level off.Only one in the field that has beaten previous winners above the first level allowance around two turns,and has done it three times.Mr.Foley only beat NY bred bottom allowance types,Imperial Council only one sprint prep,and I Want Revenge never raced on dirt and ships from SA,the one to beat if he takes to inner dirt.Haynesfield should revert to stalking tactics as in his easy Count Fleet win,not send and duel in this speedier field.

[nijinski]

Four horses I will be watching in the post parade
Imperial Council, Mr Fantasy,Masala and Naos.
But on paper IC.

[BlueShoe]

This is neat,a colt that I intend to wager seriously on is a toss out for others.Like they say,this is a good betting race,with several legit contenders and no short priced standout.How dull it would be if we all liked the same horse,just one reason why we have chosen this sport as our avocation.

[Bobzilla]

I'm inclined to agree with previous posters who indicated they are considering Axel Foley in today's Gotham. Should there be contention for early prominence then AF's preference for a late move might be an advantage. He's nearing the meatier part of his current cycle where a move up might occur and a return to preferred tactics rather than tactics used in the El Camino, which involved a blinkers experiment, could possibly help his case. AF shows a good "handily" work at the Belmont training track last Friday after switching to Kiaran McLaughlin's barn and Migliore is more familiar with the Aueduct Inner's nuances than many of the other riders. From PP 4 an opportunity for Mig to save ground will hopefully be present. Often times when it appears on paper that there will be early contention many will hold back and the early fractions become dawdling. With so few opportunities to earn graded stakes money to qualify for the KY DERBY I would hope this will be a real horse race and riders will test their mounts to see what they really have and hopefully that will include not going too slow for too long.

[classhandicapper]

I tend to think horses like Mr Fantasy and Haynesfield are a little overrated at this stage. They've been winning impressively, but against very weak competition. Either could win by default, but even though the Gotham isn't the high quality prep it was a couple of decades ago, it usually attracts a few horses that are about to step up and develop into very nice 3YOs. I think I'd be more interested in horses like Masala and Imperial Council who seem to be improving rapidly, and even I Want Revenge who IMO has clearly faced the best horses but is a ? on real dirt. As always, the price is the key.

[W2G]

While hardly a gentle introduction to two turns, if Imperial Council is what I think he is he won't falter in a G3 event over a route of ground. And he catches a fast track (which seemed in doubt a few days ago) to boot. Further, the tractable colt seems a candidate for a perfect (or at least clean) trip around the oval, sitting behind the Empire State-bred pacesetters. Stalk and pounce. Prime play.

Both Pletchers figure to be closing, and both may hit the board. Naos looks sneaky good and will not garner much support off that Philly race. I'll hope he completes the exacta.

It's hard to like and hard to dismiss I Want Revenge. The young, aggressive jock flying cross-country amidst his suspension to ride the inner for the first time on a 1 for 6 horse flying cross-country to try dirt for the first time. But the colt is consistent, if unspectacular. Underneath only.

While I think Haynesfield will fade, Mr. Fantasy just might stay. He could be any kind, as they say. Will use Mr. F defensively in all vertical exotic positions. And if he powers to a convincing score, I'll never get that old Traffic song out of my head.

[citygoat]

Axel Foley over Imperial Council, Masala ,andI Want Revenge.I am weary of Imperial but I think he will be rundown after speed duel with Haynesfield.

[bobphilo]

In a race filled with early speed, I like Masala as the closer. His figures are just as good as the top ones and has potential to improve, plus good price.

Also like him in Exacta box with Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council.

Good luck all,
Bob

[classhandicapper]

The way the track is playing certainly complicates the analysis.

[classhandicapper]

The way the track is playing certainly complicates the analysis.

Well, after the last two I'm less certain. That's two races in a row where deep closers were able to get up off a competitive pace. :confused:

[dutchboy]

#1 NAOS

[classhandicapper]

Nice performance. IMO it was pretty clear those CA horses he was competitive against were better than these. I guess this one likes dirt. ;)

I think the key to betting the race was that Mr. Fantasy was overbet off some fast figures he earned with easy leads against much weaker.

Funny, I pay very little attention to riders out in CA because I don't bet the synthetic tracks much, but I feel like I know Joe Talamo very well because of the "Jockey" show.

[Marshall Bennett]

Anyone know why this race wasn't shown live by TVG or HRTV ? If another network had exclusive rights , they must not have exercised them because I looked and couldn't find it .:confused:

[DrugS]

Nice performance. IMO it was pretty clear those CA horses he was competitive against were better than these. I guess this one likes dirt. ;)

I certainly think it would be a mistake to upgrade the Southern Cal horses on the basis of I Want Revenge's race.

I remember the dam of I Want Revenge and I know she preferred a dirt surface over a turf surface. I Want Revenge is sired by Stephen Got Even - who's offspring are 3-for-115 with 1st time turfers and is one of the most dreadful turf stallions around.

Synthetic is more similar to turf than dirt IMO - and you have the great mystic Jeff Mullins thinking the horse would prefer dirt over synthetic.

I thought it was 3rd place finish in So Cal last time out was scary bad. He had a perfect trip and was a very flat 3rd in a real ugly performance. I believe the surface moved this one way up today... and I don't believe the dirt surface will move up some of the other more respected 3yos out West.

[JustRalph]

Anyone know why this race wasn't shown live by TVG or HRTV ? If another network had exclusive rights , they must not have exercised them because I looked and couldn't find it .:confused:

same boat here..... I went back to tvg to catch it......... :bang:


he sure looked good though..... I think Talamo should have wrapped up earlier though.............

[bobphilo]

In a race filled with early speed, I like Masala as the closer. His figures are just as good as the top ones and has potential to improve, plus good price.

Also like him in Exacta box with Mr. Fantasy and Imperial Council.

Good luck all,
Bob

So much for the fast early pace. LOL. Apparently the jocks can read the Form too and IWR was the only one to run with MF early, thus the slow early pace. IC did well to close strongly from way back off the slow fractions, but was no threat to the winner.

Bob

[classhandicapper]

I certainly think it would be a mistake to upgrade the Southern Cal horses on the basis of I Want Revenge's race.


I understand that he may have improved on dirt. I'm not upgrading CA horses based on the performance of I Want Revenge. However, from a quality perspective, IMO the CA stakes races he was coming out of looked like average graded races for 3YOs early in the year (the synthetic speed figures do not translate to dirt equally). On the flip side, I thought it was clear the NY stakes horses were extremely weak. So to me, he was taking a huge drop in class against a favorite that was moving out of dreadful NW1S. IMO, IWR winning here and the NY horses running poorly simply further verifies my original opinions. I was more interested in all the shippers (even the GP ALW horses) for that reason (and they ran 2nd and 4th). By way of comparison, the Fountain of Youth was obviously of much higher quality than the CA races, but that doesn't make the CA horses worse than a few NY breds that put up big figures against nothing.

[classhandicapper]

I certainly think it would be a mistake to upgrade the Southern Cal horses on the basis of I Want Revenge's race.



I actually wish you would have told me about the pedigree issue before the race because I would have played the race differently. I booked bets against the favorite on the Xchange. Had I been more confident that I Want Revenge might improve on dirt, I would have hit the exacta (which I considered but chickened out).

[DrugS]

Even knowing the pedigree stuff and having probably more respect for Jeff Mullins magic than any other bettor who lives East of Vegas ... I stil didn't like I Want Revenge .. and I also thought Mr Fantasy was the MLW .. thankfully the race was totally unbettable.

[cj]

If you realize synthetic figures for good horses always come back low and adjust, it was clear I Want Revenge was the best horse coming in if he liked dirt.

The pace was a crawl, so clearly the runner up was disadvantaged. It is a tough call if a better pace scenario and more distance could make up 8 lengths though.

[classhandicapper]

If you realize synthetic figures for good horses always come back low and adjust, it was clear I Want Revenge was the best horse coming in if he liked dirt.

I agree.

This is a lesson that very few people understand so far because very few horses move from turf to dirt where there is a similar phenomenon. Horses usually start off on dirt and if they fail get moved to turf or the connections know they are turfers and go there right away and stay there.

That's not the case now.

Many horses on are synthetic because they have no choice other than to ship. Many either like dirt equally or are better on it. Without understanding some of the figure nuances between the two surfaces you will not be able to evaluate the horses properly when they do change surfaces.

In addition (and I know we don't entirely agree on this), there is no way that those open graded stakes horses in CA weren't better than the NW1S that the favorite was toying with. So IMO, I Want Revenge earned his superior figures racing against tougher conditions. So IMO the margin between the two was greater than it looked.

The question mark was whether he liked dirt equally or more. I'm not a pedigree guy and had no opinion. That's why I focused more on trying to beat the favorite than picking the winner. I wish I knew beforehand that he was likely to move up on dirt and I would have emptied my wallet. ;)

IMO, the other easy "bet against" yesterday was Driven By Success who also earned very good figures being loose on the lead against very weak opposition. He was certainly going to face tough pace pressure from higher quality sprinters yesterday. Every once in awhile one of these horses will have a lot more in the tank and be able to withstand a greater level of pressure and keep running, but most prove that they only put up their really big figures with easier trips against much weaker horses.

[DrugS]

I realize that about synthetic figures as well.

I bet on I Want Revenge against Pioneer of the Nile in his last start - and he got a dream trip - and couldn't even hold off that bum Papa Clem.

I'll be sending it in trying to beat IWR if he ever rourtes on Pro-ride again. I'm stubborn like that.

[classhandicapper]

I realize that about synthetic figures as well.

I bet on I Want Revenge against Pioneer of the Nile in his last start - and he got a dream trip - and couldn't even hold off that bum Papa Clem.

I'll be sending it in trying to beat IWR if he ever rourtes on Pro-ride again. I'm stubborn like that.

LOL.

I understand what you are saying. What I am saying is that a relatively easy trip against average or mediocre CA stakes horses is still a lot tougher than an easy trip against NW1S. IMO, the main competition for IWR was the two GP shippers that earned competitive figures against decent open ALW fields on dirt and that looked to be moving forward.

[Indulto]

CH,
Why isn't anybody talking about how tiny thorographs tanked this week after big beyers got burned the week before? Rubber ball or rubber track -- did Mr Fantasy bounce backward or did IWR bounce back?

Talamo and Rosario are the two most wallet-fattening riders in SoCal. Mullins uses more different jockeys with success than any other major trainer. IWR ran with blinkers for the first time in the Lewis off a 6-week rest and ran closer to the pace, even reaching the lead. The horse has been working like a top-notch SOUND animal. I don't know which was worse: ignoring Mullins shipping into a major venue with his own jockey or a G1-placed horse running against NY-breds and others with no graded stakes experience.

3-1 was an overlay, but I expected him to be favored when I singled him in the P4 at earlybird. Unfortunately, I ignored King Leatherbury whose quick-working, soundness-challenged Ah Day caught three of my selections in the closing strides. So near, yet so far away, but who knew? I was pretty excited for about 70 seconds though after they left the gate with Saint Daimon at 40-1 and Place Your Bet at 20-1. My top choices were Lucky Island and Eternal Star. Had the winners of the first and last legs, going three-deep and a prayer in each.:bang: Going 4-deep in the Toboggan was $36. Hitting the ALL button would have been $81, but I wouldn't have gone $72 (and certainly not $162) by adding Mr. Fantasy who had me spooked after listening to the Byk show.;)

[overthehill]

i am always curious when horse that figure to be close to the pace are much further back than i would have anticipated. two of these imperial council and haynesfield had rider changes. Do you think it was due to the rider change, or being out classed, that they were so far back from a slow pace. I would have thought that if im haynesfield i want to break well and make all the other speeds go outside of me. with any luck some of these horse are gonna be 3 and 4 wide. instead the 7 and 9 make the lead easy on slow fractions. what am i missing? on the face of it, it looks like talamo rode decent and everyone else rode like crap. how could they be so clear in 49 and change?

[classhandicapper]

CH,
Why isn't anybody talking about how tiny thorographs tanked this week after big beyers got burned the week before? Rubber ball or rubber track -- did Mr Fantasy bounce backward or did IWR bounce back?



I'm not sure how Thorograph got it's number for Mr. Fantasy, but it looked a lot faster than other sources. I have noticed that Thorograph often has races faster than other sources when the winning margin was very large. I think I understand why in some of the instances but didn't check that one. They also clearly have the CA circuit slower than everybody else. Add the two together and on their numbers MF looked like a standout and Talamo looked like he was making a wasted trip. Personally, I think MF was overrated no matter how you slice it.

[tribecaagent]

....but it just feels as though Imperial Council is the reincarnation of Saarland.

[bobphilo]

i am always curious when horse that figure to be close to the pace are much further back than i would have anticipated. two of these imperial council and haynesfield had rider changes. Do you think it was due to the rider change, or being out classed, that they were so far back from a slow pace. I would have thought that if im haynesfield i want to break well and make all the other speeds go outside of me. with any luck some of these horse are gonna be 3 and 4 wide. instead the 7 and 9 make the lead easy on slow fractions. what am i missing? on the face of it, it looks like talamo rode decent and everyone else rode like crap. how could they be so clear in 49 and change?

It seemed to me that the riders were expecting a fast pace, like everyone else, and decided to lay back from the start. Masala, who figured to be the most off the pace, ended up just off of it. When his rider realized how slow they were going up front. He just didn't have enough horse.

Perhaps I Want Revenge was so much better than the others that, what was a slow pace for him, turned out to be too much for Mr. Fantasy and Masala to keep up with and have anything left at the finish.
The speed and pace figures for the race should tell the tale.

Bob

[overthehill]

i dont know. i still cant explain the relatively poor performances of haynesfield and IC. IC was shipping from GP and had worked well and was stretching out. cant think of a reason why he would be so far off a slow pace. H just stunk.
I wouldnt be surprised if they were both either sick or injured to have run that poorly.

[OTM Al]

I think Haynesfield established the fact that he is a need to lead type and the one race he won not initially on the lead was a mirage brought about by sub par competition. Imperial Council may be a good horse someday soon, but he was giving a lot of experience to the rest of the field with his first trip around 2 turns. As I've been saying, he's behind on the learning and conditioning curve. He was lucky Mr Fantasy burned himself up so much pre race or he wouldn't have made 2nd and he did not close on the winner from the stretch call. I really think they should be planning for the Belmont with IC as I really don't think he's making the gate in May as the waters will be much deeper in the Wood.

[George Sands]

In a race filled with early speed, I like Masala as the closer. His figures are just as good as the top ones

You posted this on the Thoro-Graph board, too. You mean his Thoro-Graph figures were as fast as the top ones?

[W2G]

i dont know. i still cant explain the relatively poor performances of haynesfield and IC. IC was shipping from GP and had worked well and was stretching out. cant think of a reason why he would be so far off a slow pace. H just stunk.
I wouldnt be surprised if they were both either sick or injured to have run that poorly.

Inasmuch as the slippery concept of class can be identified in lightly raced, developing three-year-olds, I do think Haynesfield was outclassed. IC is more complicated. He didn't break well, that's obvious. Maybe he didn't like the footing and/or the jock's handling. And maybe he was a little flat coming off just 3 weeks rest. Still, he finished with great interest but there was no getting to the winner. And if you buy IWR's Beyer fig then IC is going to earn something in the mid to high 90s. That's nothing to sneeze at and is, for him, despite a "dullish" effort, another move forward. You can be sure he won't be that far back in the early stages of the Wood.

[FlyinLate]

i dont know. i still cant explain the relatively poor performances of haynesfield and IC. IC was shipping from GP and had worked well and was stretching out. cant think of a reason why he would be so far off a slow pace. H just stunk.
I wouldnt be surprised if they were both either sick or injured to have run that poorly.

Can't explain the poor performance by Haynesfield?
He was doing nothing but trouncing easy competition at a currently weak circuit. He did not fit in this field. Easiest bet against ever IMO.

As for IC, he had too many question marks going into this race for me to play him. Did make up some good ground late after IWR had a huge jump on him.

I can't believe IWR went off at the price he did as he was the only horse in the race who ran against real horses. Pioneerofthe Nile is at the top of many derby lists and he ran competitively with him, twice. Not to mention Joe T said IWR hated the poly that day and was spinning his wheels.

[Bobzilla]

Given IWR's reported BSF of 113 it would appear as though IC and MF both ran something in the neighborhood of 98. Masala would have ran a 91. Since I do my own performance numbers which factor in the dynamics of the race, I think IC's actual performance or effort figure would exceed the 98 which I'm guessing the Beyer folks assigned him. If I'm correct then this would suggests that this animal has a world of potential improvement given the fact this was only his 4th lifetime race and second in the current cycle. It was reported IC didn't break sharply, not something one would ever consider a helpful beginning to a race on the Aqueduct Inner. At the half, which was run in a pedestrian 48 2/5 on a surface I considered glib all afternoon, IC was 9 lenghts back, albeit saving ground which did eventually help his cause for second. But to haul in the eventual 113 BSF winner who was tracking the 48 2/5 half and 1: 1 2 3/5 third quarter with relative ease it would have required a herculean effort to get any closer to IWR. IWR ran the last 2.5 furlongs of the race in a blazing 30 seconds, actually a smidgen under. It doesn't require a doctorate in pace dynamics to realize that if IC was 8 lenghts back at 3/4 then it wasn't likely he was going to be running down an eventual 113 BSF winner who was back a head at 3/4. I thought Masala's race wasn't all that bad as well as he was in the "discouragement zone" for much of the race (given the race's eventual dynamics) and still managed 4th.

What many of these horses lack is simply experience. It's always been my strong belief that everytime a horse steps hoof onto the track and is faced with a different set of dynamics he/she becomes that much more of a true racehorse. Often times when an animal who is lightly raced experiences something for the first time they become discouraged then all of a sudden they just don't fire on all cylinders and everyone's early Derby favorite "inexplicably" finishes up the track, and all this in the wake of 3 or 4 prior races where they had everything their own way as they went on to earn big figures.

IWR had everything go his own way the other day but also had a relative experience edge over his competition and all of it on the all-weather. The dynamics of the race were perfect for an outlier figure on his part. One cannot take anything away from him as clearly he has talent, is well bred with some pretty stout South American blood on the bottom, and enjoys an experience edge on many of his contemporaries. IC showed me the other day he has talent as well and is probably in time going to show he's one of the better of his generation. I agree with OTM AL about his Belmont potential. Ironically I think that IC's effort, in a very hidden way to more casual observers, was so strong he might dull off a bit in the next race. If that happens he might lack the graded earnings to get into the Derby. I know many don't buy into fluctuations in cycles but to me their existence is pretty clear to see when thoroughly evaluating races. When so lightly raced the fluctuations, IMO, can be dramatic.

[JustRalph]

same boat here..... I went back to tvg to catch it......... :bang:


he sure looked good though..... I think Talamo should have wrapped up earlier though.............

Questions about Talamo riding this horse forward...........?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49541/ky-derby-trail-the-total-package

The doubts about Talamo are starting to be aired ..........
The writer here agrees with me that he should have wrapped up earlier.........but I think Talamo may be a question mark going forward.......especially if somebody real good doesn't have a ride............

[Indulto]

Questions about Talamo riding this horse forward...........?

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49541/ky-derby-trail-the-total-package

The doubts about Talamo are starting to be aired ..........
The writer here agrees with me that he should have wrapped up earlier.........but I think Talamo may be a question mark going forward.......especially if somebody real good doesn't have a ride............JR,
The owner was quoted as wanting Talamo on the horse for the Wood. If he runs well there, why would they take him off for the Derby. OTOH Talamo might get to ride a better 3YO before the Derby. I wouldn't be surprised if he has his choice of Derby mounts. He's still willing to go inside. ;)

[Figman]

Joe Talamo gets a ban.

Jockey Joe Talamo has been given a multiday suspension for causing interference in the eighth race at Santa Anita last Friday.

Talamo was cited for his ride on Irish Torrent, who finished fifth in a one-mile turf race for maidens. The suspension runs from Saturday through Wednesday.

The suspension allows Talamo to ride in designated races, such as graded stakes. He rode I Want Revenge in the $250,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday.

[JustRalph]

JR,
The owner was quoted as wanting Talamo on the horse for the Wood. If he runs well there, why would they take him off for the Derby. OTOH Talamo might get to ride a better 3YO before the Derby. I wouldn't be surprised if he has his choice of Derby mounts. He's still willing to go inside. ;)

I read the owner wants him back. I just think if I was an owner with a chance in the Derby........ and Prado, Gomez......or some other good seasoned rider is available.............Talamo gets a free ticket to the grandstand from me..........

[overthehill]

with all due respect H had better class credentials than the horse that went off as the chalk in the race, so I would not agree with you that he was outclassed by most of the field. I dont begrudge the winner but its very strange that a horse who had shown speed in all of his races but his first one and had a good strategic reason to get the lead from the inside and force the contenders wide suddenly shows none at all.

[classhandicapper]

My first thoughts.

IMO, the winner clearly ran very well.

Imperial Council was probably disadvantaged by the combination of the slowish pace and a track that, if anything, was tilted towards speed.

Mr Fantasy ran OK. He was under some pressure from a superior horse in the middle when the pace really starting picking up, but I doubt it had much of a negative impact because he did get away slow early and the track was playing to his benefit. I thought he was overrated going in, but he probably ran a hair better than I expected.

Masala was kind of mediocre.

I thought Haynesfield was overrated going into the race, but he ran so poorly I have to thing something is wrong with him.

[Relwob Owner]

I read the owner wants him back. I just think if I was an owner with a chance in the Derby........ and Prado, Gomez......or some other good seasoned rider is available.............Talamo gets a free ticket to the grandstand from me..........


Without a doubt----watching California racing pretty regularly, Talamo can ride great in one race and terrible the next. i would never trust him on a horse in the Derby at this point in his career with the way he rides and the fact that he has so little experience.

Im not bashing the kid, I am just judging him for what he currently is....a young, talented, inconsistent rider and a guy like that can make a loser out of any horse at any time.

[Robert Fischer]

IWR ran the last 2.5 furlongs of the race in a blazing 30 seconds, actually a smidgen under. It doesn't require a doctorate in pace dynamics to realize that if IC was 8 lenghts back at 3/4 then it wasn't likely he was going to be running down an eventual 113 BSF winner who was back a head at 3/4.

These are important points, and I am big on closing times. IWR did well both visually and with the clock. A sub 30(29.93) last 2.5 is very good on the dirt for 1 1/16th. I still have to do some homework on the rest of that card to see how fast they were all coming home. For Comparison Friesan Fire came home in about 31.17 in the Risen Star over the Fair Grounds track that day.
Imperial Council also came home in around 30 seconds which is pretty quick. I wasn't visually impressed from his race, and the fact that he never contested at any point. I give IC less credit than IWR who dueled outside most of the race, and finished even a little better actually winning the race. It wasn't a terrible race from Imperial Council, and a lot of handicappers are fairly high on him. Have to keep watching both of these and see how they run next.


I am also not crazy about Imperial Council's stride conformation. He hooks his left-front out wide, and then to compensate he brings it across and nearly hits/crosses the path of his right front.
not as clear as the head-on, but you can kind of see here:
stretch of Gothamhttp://img25.imageshack.us/img25/5782/conformationic.gif
GP Allowancehttp://img87.imageshack.us/img87/3844/10208528.jpg

[bobphilo]

Given IWR's reported BSF of 113 it would appear as though IC and MF both ran something in the neighborhood of 98. Masala would have ran a 91. Since I do my own performance numbers which factor in the dynamics of the race, I think IC's actual performance or effort figure would exceed the 98 which I'm guessing the Beyer folks assigned him. If I'm correct then this would suggests that this animal has a world of potential

Given IWR's 113 and, according to Beyer's beaten lengths formula. IC and MF both earned 99's, lifetime tops and against an unfavorable pace scenario for IC. at first glance MF seemed to disappoint given he tired against the supposedly slow pace but what was a slow pace for IWR, given his fast final time may have been fast for MF, so maybe thier final figures were not such a surprise. Masala earned a 93, not far off his top in his first 2-turn race.

Perhaps the moral is if one waits for the speed and pace figures for the race and looks at them in relation to their PPs, the race results make sense after all.

Bob

[BUD]

I was sick had to travel 2 1/2 hours to a wedding shower--Had my Laptop with me---Had Sh1tty reception---I made the trip because this is the Nephew who plays for the Colts whom I only get to see on TV----

But all Around from morons interrupting me Every expert the game has ever seen was there.Race 8 they start I lose them quick pick em up halfway thru-see the gallop out.---Race 9 was better thankfully-----But when you feel like Reginald Jackson at the end of the Naked Gun Part 10----Everything pretty much sucks---

Saturday was a useless blur-----I am still to peeved to go back and watch the replay show-------But as my cousin Vinny said its all rigged----Maybe in my MS Fog I was watching wrestling.

But my youngin who has a crush on the Cocky Cajun jockey was happy.

I am still rehabbing from my weekend...What other important preps did I miss?

[bobphilo]

You posted this on the Thoro-Graph board, too. You mean his Thoro-Graph figures were as fast as the top ones?

My statement was based on both his Beyer and Brisnet figures, though he did have a higher figure than the winner on T-Graph. In this case, both Beyer and Brisnet proved to be the more accurate predictors.

Bob

[bobphilo]

I am also not crazy about Imperial Council's stride conformation. He hooks his left-front out wide, and then to compensate he brings it across and nearly hits/crosses the path of his right front.
not as clear as the head-on, but you can kind of see here:
stretch of Gothamhttp://img25.imageshack.us/img25/5782/conformationic.gif
GP Allowancehttp://img87.imageshack.us/img87/3844/10208528.jpg

The Pamplemousse has the same strange paddling action. Steve Haskin reported this in his article on the Sham Stakes and you can see it on the head-on view there too. Apparently it hasn't hurt either horse.

Bob

[FlyinLate]

The Pamplemousse has the same strange paddling action. Steve Haskin reported this in his article on the Sham Stakes and you can see it on the head-on view there too. Apparently it hasn't hurt either horse.

Bob

The Pamplemousse does have an odd stride as well. It is, however, quite a deal different than that of IC (atleast in my opinion based on the pics)

[George Sands]

My statement was based on both his Beyer and Brisnet figures.

I see. Thanks. I was confused because you posted that on the Thoro-Graph board without mentioning that you were using Beyer and BRIS, not Thoro-Graph.

[bobphilo]

I see. Thanks. I was confused because you posted that on the Thoro-Graph board without mentioning that you were using Beyer and BRIS, not Thoro-Graph.

Sorry about any confusion. I was expecting TG to post the Gotham as their ROTW and would have included them in my analysis there, but I based my analysis on the consensus of what I had, hoping their figures were not radically different and not wanting to give Jerry Brown's competitors a plug on his own borad. JB didn't much mind, but then he has been more concerned lately over the controversy regarding the validity of his Cal. figures.

Bob

[nijinski]

Unfortunately I missed the article before the race, I believe The Miami Herald, which stated Shug went on record saying "Imperial Council was entered
in the "Gotham" as a stepping stone for the "Wood". So he would probably
not be fully cranked up in the Gotham".
Whether or not it was one hundred percent true. Don't know , but I wish I
read about it earlier.
Well I least have reason to still keep an eye on him.

[Bobzilla]

These are important points, and I am big on closing times. IWR did well both visually and with the clock. A sub 30(29.93) last 2.5 is very good on the dirt for 1 1/16th. I still have to do some homework on the rest of that card to see how fast they were all coming home. For Comparison Friesan Fire came home in about 31.17 in the Risen Star over the Fair Grounds track that day.
Imperial Council also came home in around 30 seconds which is pretty quick. I wasn't visually impressed from his race, and the fact that he never contested at any point. I give IC less credit than IWR who dueled outside most of the race, and finished even a little better actually winning the race. It wasn't a terrible race from Imperial Council, and a lot of handicappers are fairly high on him. Have to keep watching both of these and see how they run next.


I am also not crazy about Imperial Council's stride conformation. He hooks his left-front out wide, and then to compensate he brings it across and nearly hits/crosses the path of his right front.
not as clear as the head-on, but you can kind of see here:
stretch of Gothamhttp://img25.imageshack.us/img25/5782/conformationic.gif
GP Allowancehttp://img87.imageshack.us/img87/3844/10208528.jpg


Thanks for sharing the head-on visuals of IC's stride. I hadn't noticed this. Stride confirmation isn't an area I would consider my forte. Though IC's awkward stride might not have slowed him down to date, my concern would be that once distances become longer would this inefficiency of locomotion affect his ability to compete? Is he more apt to experience fatigue prematurely at longer distances? I really have no idea. If IC continues to improve he wouldn't be the first to reach a high level of performance with a less than perfect stride. In time we'll find out.

I watched the Gotham a few more times last night. IWR appeared to be running well within himself during the entire race and really had an appearence of class the way the way he took off in the stretch. I can't wait to see him at Aqueduct on Wood Memorial Day. Where I would differ a bit from your analysis is that I wouldn't consider his early proximity alongside MF dueling but perhaps this is semantics. Early fractions were slow and neither, IMO, was negatively impacting the others one's chances to reserve the energy needed for a competitive finish. My sense from watching was that IWR was always running within himself and completely owned his foe to the inside, separating from the latter once his rider seriously asked him to. As you pointed out and I forgot to mention in my post was IC's last 2.5 furlongs was run in a time similar to the winners. Whether it be a sluggish start or an error in tactics IC's chances were immediately eliminated when he found himself 9 lengths back at the half. I hope in the Wood IC can find himself a bit closer to the front runners. The early fractions in the Wood might be more honest as there will probably be more competitive horses in the fray.

[Bobzilla]

Given IWR's 113 and, according to Beyer's beaten lengths formula. IC and MF both earned 99's, lifetime tops and against an unfavorable pace scenario for IC. at first glance MF seemed to disappoint given he tired against the supposedly slow pace but what was a slow pace for IWR, given his fast final time may have been fast for MF, so maybe thier final figures were not such a surprise. Masala earned a 93, not far off his top in his first 2-turn race.

Perhaps the moral is if one waits for the speed and pace figures for the race and looks at them in relation to their PPs, the race results make sense after all.

Bob

Thanks Bob for the clarifications in regard to the BSFs. I don't have in my possession a beaten lengths chart. It's obvious to me the Beyer folks use 2.5 for 6f and 2 for a mile. I've been using 1.8 for 8.5 furlongs (1.87 for mile seventy yards) simply to give me a thumbnail idea of the BSfs of other horses seen in a pp company line. I know it's not exact but I'm trying to get a reasonably close idea to the variants the BSF folks are using so I can reconcile them to my own and to see if certain races are broken out. It's rare for me to disagree with BSFs as I have a great deal of faith in them but when I do, and it's more often in graded stakes races when I do, I feel I have an edge in future events.

[samyn on the green]

In depth commentary at this site (http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/03/gotham-recap.html).

[Robert Fischer]

The Pamplemousse has the same strange paddling action. Steve Haskin reported this in his article on the Sham Stakes and you can see it on the head-on view there too. Apparently it hasn't hurt either horse.

Bob
The Pamplemousse does have an odd stride as well. It is, however, quite a deal different than that of IC (atleast in my opinion based on the pics)

The Pamplemousse lifts his left knee up very high like a turf horse, but if there is some conformation problem, it is that he is a little bit "open in front", that is his knee comes outward as well as up. He also hits the ground fairly hard with his left front. Hard Spun had a high knee kick for a successful dirt horse, but I don't think he was as wide with it as TP.
Imperial Council and The Pamplemousse have different strides, but both have stride abnormalities and both are physically gifted animals who have had some success so far.
Pamplemoussehttp://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3756/pamplemouss0038.jpg

[bobphilo]

Thanks Bob for the clarifications in regard to the BSFs. I don't have in my possession a beaten lengths chart. It's obvious to me the Beyer folks use 2.5 for 6f and 2 for a mile. I've been using 1.8 for 8.5 furlongs (1.87 for mile seventy yards) simply to give me a thumbnail idea of the BSfs of other horses seen in a pp company line. I know it's not exact but I'm trying to get a reasonably close idea to the variants the BSF folks are using so I can reconcile them to my own and to see if certain races are broken out. It's rare for me to disagree with BSFs as I have a great deal of faith in them but when I do, and it's more often in graded stakes races when I do, I feel I have an edge in future events.

Bobzilla, your estimates are actually pretty close. You'll find a beaten lengths conversion chart in the appendix of "Beyer on Speed". Reverse engineering the Beyers to find the variant is a useful technigue. Carroll uses it in his speed handicapping software.

Bob