conditional betting-Twinspires

[formula_2002]

I gather most players want to set the minimum odds threshold . I don’t find any fault with this.

Twinspires now has “Conditional Wagers” based on minimum odds threshold .

However I have concentrated on just the opposite. I’m looking for the public to agree with my top selection, so I would look to set the maximum odds threshold .

Actually, it’s not so much about odds as odds ranking.

No little time and money has been expended to get to this point of view.
Lots of study time and a lots of money for the data.

Here is my conditional play:

MY SYSTEM SELECTION MUST BE 1ST OR 2ND BETTING CHOICE.
THE PLAYS:
1. WPS
2. EXACTA
THE EXACTA PLAY IS, THE SELECTION OVER THE REMAINING TOP THREE BETTING CHOICES
THAT IS, SELECTION 1 / 2,3,4 OR IF THE SELECTION IS 2ND BETTING CHOICE, THEN 2 / 1,3,4.

POSSIBLE RESULTS
LONG TERM RESULTS ARE BREAK-EVEN IN THE WPS POOLS AND PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT EGDE IN THE EXACTA POOL.
IF YOU CAN GET ATLEAST A 5% REBATE, LONG TERM, IT COULD BE "WINNER”

I SUSPECT, OVER TIME, GIVEN THE 5% REBATES, THE SUM OF THESE PLAYS WILL BE PROFITABLE.

[FenceBored]

The condition I'd like to see offered is simple to understand, but maybe hard to implement. Is the scheduled turf race actually going to go off on the turf, or have they moved it to the main track?

If TURF != OFF Then place wager X.

Or

If TURF = OFF THEN place wager Y.

[DrewClear]

Formula, If you cut the show out of your WPS wagers, your long term profits should increase.
I keep track of my bets and when comparing the win roi with wps roi, on positive days, wps roi is almost half the win roi. On days that I don't do so good and show a loss, there is very little differnce in the two ROIs. (Not much of a saver)

As for conditional wagers, that is a very good idea. I use the service few times a week but have to make sure there is no chance of off the turf or off track. Still a good sevice when you really need it.

[formula_2002]

Every bet is “handicapper specific”.
I’ve tested the plays against a data base of over 20,000 races (180,000+ horses).
When the win pool odds are <2-1,it appears that show bets break even in several of my conditional plays.
Add in an allowable rebate, and you have a worth while bet

When you have an edge you want the maximum action.

[DeanT]

I wonder if it would work if you bet the chalk and/or second chalk in the p3's and doubles. At least then you could make plays at ten minutes to post, and at multiple tracks easily. They are usually a good indicator of odds ranks one and two.

Interesting concept regardless.

[formula_2002]

I wonder if it would work if you bet the chalk and/or second chalk in the p3's and doubles. At least then you could make plays at ten minutes to post, and at multiple tracks easily. They are usually a good indicator of odds ranks one and two.

Interesting concept regardless.

determining odds ranking from the separate pools works well.
Its easier to get the odds rankings right compared to getting the min./max odds.

I've attached my picks for today (as posted on the selections board) so you can get a feel for my conditional plays..

[formula_2002]

Formula, If you cut the show out of your WPS wagers, your long term profits should increase.
I keep track of my bets and when comparing the win roi with wps roi, on positive days, wps roi is almost half the win roi. On days that I don't do so good and show a loss, there is very little differnce in the two ROIs. (Not much of a saver)

As for conditional wagers, that is a very good idea. I use the service few times a week but have to make sure there is no chance of off the turf or off track. Still a good sevice when you really need it.

as things are bound to happen, the only pool that had a positive roi for the picks I posted here was the show pool.

from a note I posted in the "Selections" forum

finals:
there were 13 playable races.
the wps roi was .82
4 exacta races lost($6 per race)

the only pool that had a positive roi was the show pool, (1.17 roi)

[DeanT]

Any theory as to why your show ROI shows better/as good as win? Flies into the face of most capping angles/theories. DId you somehow tailor it for this?

[formula_2002]

Any theory as to why your show ROI shows better/as good as win? Flies into the face of most capping angles/theories. DId you somehow tailor it for this?
the theory is this.
work with a large data base, miminal backfitting,maximum statistical say.

i have some portions of each :)

[DeanT]

I use a small database with maximum statistical backfitting. It does not work, but you have a lot of fun thinking it does :)

[formula_2002]

I use a small database with maximum statistical backfitting. It does not work, but you have a lot of fun thinking it does :)

lets compare data bases

I have the public's show pool roi at .89 for the favorite, when the book % for the race is<=1.25. thats for 19878 races.
my show pool roi is 1.04 in 375 of those races.

the public's show pool roi for the second choice is .86 in the same 19878 races.

my show pool roi is .94 in 112 of those races.


what do you have for the public's favorite and second choices roi?

what is the best roi you can achieve for the same bets?

thanks

[DeanT]

I worked a ton on chalk, looking for high hit rate bets and found no angles to use.I think I could get win ROI to something like 0.92/0.94 over a good sample, but I could really get it no higher. Almost always, place and show ROI's were lower. Since I can not accurately look for overlays in those pools (because of late money changes killing any edge) I just stopped.

You are obviously doing something good with this. Congrats on that because I know I could not.