Betting against overbet jockeys

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Between Aqueduct with Ramon Dominguez and the machine Russell Baze in northern California and the other overbet jockeys on the various circuits...how can we take advantage of the inflated prices of the other contenders. It seems(LOL) that when I make a case against one of these selections the overbet rider wins for fun.

Years ago i was able to capitalize on these situations with regularity but racing in the last few years (IMO) has gone through some subtle changes and I guess I am behind the rhythm. The value of betting against a vulnerable favorite is still one of the keys to success in this game and the edge is right their on the board a couple of times a day at virtually all race tracks in the country.

I must keep analyzing as the answers are their ...somewhere.

[Imriledup]

Russel Baze is not as overbet as he used to be. Still overbet, but it used to be worse.

Gomez at Santa Anita is terribly overbet. He's a good guy to bet against on an overnight horse.

Too much money comes in on the humans, jocks and trainers take more money than they should which makes this game beatable if you can be patient enough to bet against the leading rider/trainer when the situation warrants.

In the 6th race yesterday at FG, Cya Later Bert was 5-2 and there was an Asmussen horse who was even money (or less). Bert crushed them and paid 7 dollars. The Asmussen horse was clearly bet down because of the trainer, the horse didn't look that great on paper and the public bet him like he couldnt lose. The winning horse was first time Tom Aamos on a trainer change, i'm not sure why the Aamos horse wasn't even money in here. Big mistake by the fans.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

We have all seen throughout the years some jockeys and trainers and jockey/trainer combinations that were terribly overbet and the rewards are plentiful for the patient player.

A few years ago when John Velazquez(before the terrible spill) was hugely overbet even at Saratoga and I capitilized on these situations throughout the meeting with three or four were real nice scores.

I guess that's what makes this game so great is going against the crowd with confidence and getting rewarded...it's almost like stealing (LOL).

Now I need to find my confidence.

[cmoore]

Don't have any stats..But the top jocks might be most vulnerable in maiden races..Maidens can improve drastically early in there career and if a top jock is on the most obvious runner that has 3 itm finishes out of 6 starts..You might be able to find some good prices in those type of races..

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Interesting point cmoore. I would guess to think that every circuit has their own nuances concerning how the favorites are bet and various betting patterns,but it is worth serious consideration when you look at the charts for races across the country and see the odds on favorite with the popular rider off the board the prices are very juicy to say the least.A contender that you might feel deserves to be 3/1 in the fiels wins at 5/1 or better ...now that's ok for long-term bank building.

[slew101]

IMO, John Velasquez is still the most overbet jockey in the country. This guy rides crap horses and they 8-1, when if anyone else was riding, the horse would be 25-1. It noticeable most in stakes races when he is on an also-ran. The horses are always bet way down despite having no shot in the race.

[QUOTE=zappi]A few years ago when John Velazquez(before the terrible spill) was hugely overbet even at Saratoga and I capitilized on these situations throughout the meeting with three or four were real nice scores.

[whyhorseofcourse]

Ramon Dominguez is not overbet, plenty of money to be made on this guy.

Joe Bravo at Aqu
Garret Gomez anywhere
Daniel Centeno at Tampa
Seth Martinez at Emerald Downs

Here is the best one
Homeister at Tampa and Delaware, extremely overbet, extremely profitable to bet against.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Dominguez rode a 3/5 shot off the board last week...and their are plenty of other examples,but if you are finding value and making money with this excellent rider great for you.That's good handicapping on your part.

[Overlay]

In my handicapping model, I give leading riders the credit that they deserve. To me, that's part of going with the percentages. But I also don't give them more credit than they deserve, as is sometimes reflected in the betting. The public becoming oversold on a horse just because of the jockey, trainer, or both, produces overlays elsewhere in the field.

[Hard2Like]

The old Bailey/Mott combo led me to become a huge Edgar Prado fan.Find many of these overbet jockey/connections situations at different locations,big race days and top tier tracks seemingly more so than others.Agree with many points here,as this is one tool in my bag that has treated me well through the years.
And,yes, Centeno is overbet down here,but he's tough to beat.Trust me,I've been tryin'.

[Valuist]

Russel Baze is not as overbet as he used to be. Still overbet, but it used to be worse.

Gomez at Santa Anita is terribly overbet. He's a good guy to bet against on an overnight horse.

Too much money comes in on the humans, jocks and trainers take more money than they should which makes this game beatable if you can be patient enough to bet against the leading rider/trainer when the situation warrants.

In the 6th race yesterday at FG, Cya Later Bert was 5-2 and there was an Asmussen horse who was even money (or less). Bert crushed them and paid 7 dollars. The Asmussen horse was clearly bet down because of the trainer, the horse didn't look that great on paper and the public bet him like he couldnt lose. The winning horse was first time Tom Aamos on a trainer change, i'm not sure why the Aamos horse wasn't even money in here. Big mistake by the fans.

Cya Later Bert won as clearly the best but no way should he have been even money. It was a sprint race with a decided lack of early speed, and Cya Later Bert is a deep closer. Yeah, he overcame it and was much the best but his running style and the projected race shape dictated he shouldn't have been lower than 2-1.

[Patrick333]

Jersey Joe Bravo at Monmouth is overbet. Although last season it didn't seem as bad.

[1st time lasix]

I used to take dead aim against Pat Day in Kentucky.....of course i am showing my age!

[HUSKER55]

These "hot jocks" are in a cycle and betting chalk may not be bad. If your horse can't be beat and you have a hot jock then any other horse is, regarless of odds, is an overlay.

I am noticing that in the nw2l and up that these hot jocks are bringing in horses that don't necessarily look that good on paper. Maidens, as mentioned earlier, and fts and starter allowances present good opportunities.

Won't last forever so I say ride the wave.

Maybe I'm wrong. what do you guys and gals think. good topic.


:)

[whyhorseofcourse]

Dominguez rode a 3/5 shot off the board last week...and their are plenty of other examples,but if you are finding value and making money with this excellent rider great for you.That's good handicapping on your part.

He is hitting at a huge clip and he is not nearly being underbet like all the other leading jockeys are at most tracks.
Hes a jockey, your only going to notice the bad rides.

[the little guy]

Ramon is a terrific rider, who has won with a very high percentage of the mounts he should have won with, in fact I can only think of one or two where he may have lost with the best horse the whole meet, and he has probably helped win with a horse or two that others would have lost with, but his ROI, even with his gaudy win percentage, is still hovering around $2 less the takeout. The simple fact is that he is being dramatically overbet and this definitely makes it less difficult to win. However, it's a slightly problematic situation, as the exotics pools often don't reflect his underlaid odds, so the only real value may be in the win pool.

[point given]

This horse won for fun as a a FTS at gulstream last saturday in the 10th race
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=GP&date=2009-02-28&race=10

Now , Johnny V could have ridden him for Pletcher , but they threw Chris Decarlo a live one, and the mile went in !:35.1 the odds were 4.8 and everyone wondered why no JR V. I think Decarlo was ofer 22 at gulf so far.
Oh yeah , this one will show up in a stakes race next time too. :ThmbUp:

[big frank]

Ramon is a terrific rider, who has won with a very high percentage of the mounts he should have won with, in fact I can only think of one or two where he may have lost with the best horse the whole meet, and he has probably helped win with a horse or two that others would have lost with, but his ROI, even with his gaudy win percentage, is still hovering around $2 less the takeout. The simple fact is that he is being dramatically overbet and this definitely makes it less difficult to win. However, it's a slightly problematic situation, as the exotics pools often don't reflect his underlaid odds, so the only real value may be in the win pool. i feel the same way... Ramon also wins with career maidens and hangers more then any jock i have seen in a long time... I am not a big jockey guy ,, but this guy does make a big difference !

[Pell Mell]

I don't know the exact numbers but I do know there are a helluva lot more jocks today than there were 40-50 yrs. ago. So what does that mean?

An example is any major sport like baseball or football. If the leagues were expanded to double or triple what they are now there would be a huge dilution of talent. Add several hundred more players to MLB and see what % would hit .300.

I think I read somewhere that 40 yrs ago there were something like 7,000 horses being bred, or in training, I don't remember which, and that has increased to about 35,000 today. With much more limited opportunities back then, one had to be really good to get anywhere. Not so today!

There are some really good riders today but there are MANY more bad ones. I've been at this game for 60 yrs. and have never had so many bad rides as I get now. I would venture to say that 25% of my horses lose due to bad rides. My biggest bitch is when a jock is on a speed horse that breaks slowand they usually run the horse off its feet to get to the lead only to die at the top of the stretch. They panic because all they heard or understood was the word "Lead". Not many out there have the ability to adjust during the race.

I see the top jocks at various tracks bring home some juicy ones but one has to be selective. It's a big mistake to consistently bet jocks with a low win %.

Of course, this is just my opinion.

[big frank]

I don't know the exact numbers but I do know there are a helluva lot more jocks today than there were 40-50 yrs. ago. So what does that mean?

An example is any major sport like baseball or football. If the leagues were expanded to double or triple what they are now there would be a huge dilution of talent. Add several hundred more players to MLB and see what % would hit .300.

I think I read somewhere that 40 yrs ago there were something like 7,000 horses being bred, or in training, I don't remember which, and that has increased to about 35,000 today. With much more limited opportunities back then, one had to be really good to get anywhere. Not so today!

There are some really good riders today but there are MANY more bad ones. I've been at this game for 60 yrs. and have never had so many bad rides as I get now. I would venture to say that 25% of my horses lose due to bad rides. My biggest bitch is when a jock is on a speed horse that breaks slowand they usually run the horse off its feet to get to the lead only to die at the top of the stretch. They panic because all they heard or understood was the word "Lead". Not many out there have the ability to adjust during the race.

I see the top jocks at various tracks bring home some juicy ones but one has to be selective. It's a big mistake to consistently bet jocks with a low win %.

Of course, this is just my opinion. 25 % of your horses lose because of bad rides ??? i think you are fooling your self... i know a player that says the same thing ,,,,, i know for me if 5 % of my lost bets are the jocks fault it is alot