Serious Post before they take me away : Best way for the Track to increase handle ??

[BeatTheChalk]

Well here is my Thought - After watching stone cold Favorites just keep on winning... I asked myself a question. What is going on here ? :jump: Then I
said - The tracks are making more money ! How - You say ???

*** BY INCREASING THE PLAYBACK THROUGH THE MACHINES ****

And how do they get MORE playback ? There are more short priced winners..that's how. Because :: The Big players bet Big Dollars on Short priced horses that look like they can't lose !

Voila : Races are carded in such a way as to come up with OBVIOUS
HORSES ! The whales keep on betting and keep on winning and the
machines are burning up. So is the Cash Flow. No es verdad ?

With this caveat : I have been testing a Tote Board System for ONLY
the LAST 3 months. It is supposed to tell me if the Favorite is a good bet. .

This is when I started to notice THE Short Priced Winners. All over the place. So there you have it .. the Men and Women are waiting outside
clad in white uniforms - Until they can see your comments. My fate is in your collective hands. Amen
" They're coming to take me away ho ho hee hee to the funny farm .."

[Cangamble]

Well here is my Thought - After watching stone cold Favorites just keep on winning... I asked myself a question. What is going on here ? :jump: Then I
said - The tracks are making more money ! How - You say ???

*** BY INCREASING THE PLAYBACK THROUGH THE MACHINES ****

And how do they get MORE playback ? There are more short priced winners..that's how. Because :: The Big players bet Big Dollars on Short priced horses that look like they can't lose !

Voila : Races are carded in such a way as to come up with OBVIOUS
HORSES ! The whales keep on betting and keep on winning and the
machines are burning up. So is the Cash Flow. No es verdad ?

With this caveat : I have been testing a Tote Board System for ONLY
the LAST 3 months. It is supposed to tell me if the Favorite is a good bet. .

This is when I started to notice THE Short Priced Winners. All over the place. So there you have it .. the Men and Women are waiting outside
clad in white uniforms - Until they can see your comments. My fate is in your collective hands. Amen
" They're coming to take me away ho ho hee hee to the funny farm .."
I don't think it is only whales are the ones who are betting favorites down. Whales from what I understand seek overlays, not underlays, which most favorites are.
But low priced payoffs do increase churn, from smaller players.
Also, as I've discovered, low priced payoffs create more breakage for the track as well, because more tickets are cashed, and they make 9.5 cents on average per every $2 ticket that is cashed.
Still this type of increased churn and the higher handle because of it, doesn't do anything to the bottom line. It doesn't create new money, or new players. All it does is prolong how long a player lasts by a slight amount.

[SMOO]

Lower the takeout & players last longer creating more churn.

This also helps on track with food & bar business if people are able to make their money last longer, they stay and buy more instead of going home early & broke.

[ryesteve]

So does this mean you're going to ask PA to change your handle to "BETtheChalk"?? :)

[rrbauer]

I don't think it is only whales are the ones who are betting favorites down.


I agree. To wit: Players go to a simulcast site. Many tracks are available to wager on. Players spend a minimum amount of time handicapping most races because only a minimum amount of time is available before they have to start looking at another track/race. The obvious horses are getting played. The obvious horses are the favorites. In addition, whenever a race creates handicapping confusion, players will look at the board to see what is being bet and that is where their money goes.

[Imriledup]

Yesterday at Santa Anita there was a horse named Leftthegateopen. He opened with 30k first flash (or something close to that) and he was 1-9 or 1-5 and everyone else was 10-1. On paper, the 'gate' looked best, but he wasn't a standout. Most of his career he ran Beyer's in the mid 70s and has already lost, with no excuse, at short prices. Other contenders in the race had Beyered mid 70s, including one horse who had a going away win that was very impressive.


Anyway, to make a long story more boring, "gate' got bet like he was the 2nd coming of Whirlaway and went wire to wire under absolutely no pressure. He went very slow early and hung on all out beating a bad 20-1 shot. He won fairly easy, but he wasn't 'finding' thru the line as this 7 furlong distance was just another reason to think he was an overbet 1-2 shot.

As soon as i saw that big bet i thought this guy is going to get an easy lead and no one is going to go near him. Sure enough, that's what happened.

[Cangamble]

Yesterday at Santa Anita there was a horse named Leftthegateopen. He opened with 30k first flash (or something close to that) and he was 1-9 or 1-5 and everyone else was 10-1. On paper, the 'gate' looked best, but he wasn't a standout. Most of his career he ran Beyer's in the mid 70s and has already lost, with no excuse, at short prices. Other contenders in the race had Beyered mid 70s, including one horse who had a going away win that was very impressive.


Anyway, to make a long story more boring, "gate' got bet like he was the 2nd coming of Whirlaway and went wire to wire under absolutely no pressure. He went very slow early and hung on all out beating a bad 20-1 shot. He won fairly easy, but he wasn't 'finding' thru the line as this 7 furlong distance was just another reason to think he was an overbet 1-2 shot.

As soon as i saw that big bet i thought this guy is going to get an easy lead and no one is going to go near him. Sure enough, that's what happened.
His last two or three numbers were better than any of the horse's lifetime bests. He looked like a cinch. He traded around .70-1 on Betfair.

[Imriledup]

His last two or three numbers were better than any of the horse's lifetime bests. He looked like a cinch. He traded around .70-1 on Betfair.

I know that horse well, he's never a cinch. He's got average talent. His last Beyer was 81 which was accomplished with a perfect trip at a shorter distance. His two Beyers before that were 71 and 72. His PP's seem to also indicate 6 furlongs is his limit. With this race being at 7F, he was vulnerable in the final furlong. In retrospect, it looked very easy. I'll be betting against this runner with both fists next time...hopefully the chump who bet 30k to win on him does it again next time.

[cmoore]

My view is..The more the winning money is spread out. The greater the chance of it being bet again..So that means more possible takeout for the track..If this is the case. We just have to be more selective when going against the favorites..When the 2 year old mdn races start..They won't be able to fill races with obvious winners and the long shots will come a plenty..

[cj]

My view is..The more the winning money is spread out. The greater the chance of it being bet again..So that means more possible takeout for the track..If this is the case. We just have to be more selective when going against the favorites..When the 2 year old mdn races start..They won't be able to fill races with obvious winners and the long shots will come a plenty..

2yo maiden races don't offer any more longshots than any other type of race in the long haul.

[onefast99]

2yo maiden races don't offer any more longshots than any other type of race in the long haul.
Even at Saratoga?

[ralph_the_cat]

Increase Handle?... Set Jerry Jones up with a twinspires account... guy blows more money on washed up starters than anyone...

[DrugS]

Ever heard of Dan Snyder?

[cj]

George Steinbrenner.

[cj]

Even at Saratoga?

If I had to guess, no. They can many times be chalk fests like any other type of race.

[BeatTheChalk]

Ever heard of Dan Snyder?

I heard that he was so upset that he was NOT tall ....he vowed to make
em all jealous as hell ....by making a ton of money....Well he did and then
he started spending it - on NFL draft choices. The rest is history ... :bang: :cool: :)

[badcompany]

If I had to guess, no. They can many times be chalk fests like any other type of race.

This is just anecdotal, but, IMO, the most common type of board is 3 horses with odds somewhere between 9/5 and 7/2, and one of them usually wins.

So, you don't have big favorites or longshots winning those races.