100+ Beyers

[W2G]

It "seems" like this crop is throwing 100+ Beyers right and left. But I wonder if that perception is due to last year's crop being so weak in comparison.

Does anyone have a database (and the time and interest) to produce a 100+ Beyer metric to evaluate three-year-old classes at a given point in time from year to year? How does this year compare to last year at the same point in time, and even better, historically?

Just curious.

[PaceAdvantage]

Bruddah would be your man to address this kind of inquiry. He'll be the first to tell you that he was on top of all of this "weak crop" stuff last year. Then he'll tell you that I had the gall to ask him how he came to his conclusion...only he'll label it something along the lines of being attacked...but I digress...

Seriously though, Bruddah has this kind of thing covered...hopefully, he'll see the humor of my reply and comment further on how he sees this year shaping up.

[098poi]

I copied this from a post I made last year. This relates to the previous 5 Derby's and how many had Beyers over 100. Not exactly what you asked for but it's all I got.


I was going to start a thread similar to this so I will just post here. My thread was not about redboarding as much as looking to tomorrow and saying looking back what did we miss. The most frustrating thing about horseracing is that after the fact everything becomes obvious!



This is primarily about Big Brown. On the one hand seems like obvious contender and winner. Throw in poor post and 3 lifetime starts and maybe not such a sure thing. Per Mr. Beyer on his chat at DRF when asked about that stat and his dismissal of Curlin last year he said, “He was the best horse of his generation, but he still couldn't win the Derby with only 3 career starts.”



With Mr. B as a transition I looked at the past 5 Derby’s and made a list of horses that had one Beyer at 100 or more and the next with more than one at 100 or more. The third column is total with at least one Beyer at or over 100. The numbers are percentages relative to field size. The last column is how many Beyers the winner had at or over 100 coming in to the race.



YEAR 100 or better(1) 100 or better(2 or more) Total Winner coming in to race



2007........ 30%................... 15%....................... 45%.................. 2

2006........ 25%................... 35%....................... 60%.................. 2

2005 ........30% ....................15% ......................45% ..................0

2004 ........40% ....................40% .......................80% .................3

2003........ 41% ....................29% .......................70%................. 2





Now let’s look at his year



2008 .........20% ..................15% ........................35%



Big Brown has 2 Beyer’s of 106! The point is that this field looks weak (as has been noticed by others) relative to recent years. So tomorrow if BB destroys the field, even with only 3 starts do you bang your head against the wall and say it was so obvious. Or if he gets soundly beaten due not to his ability but from lack of seasoning combined with the poor post, do you say, “The Derby knows what the Derby knows, I should have listened!”



Suggestion, buy a helmet to wear before the Derby. Use money that you would have wagered (since no one can wager on the Derby anyway) and buy stock in Tylenol. I am sure it will be up by Monday!!!

[Valuist]

Any Beyer at a distance less than a mile should be tossed out. I see Old Fashioned only got a 93 for the Southwest. I know the Gulfstream stakes like the Holy Bull have been underwhelming. Its too early to really judge either way but we should start to be able to see 2 turn Beyers in triple digits. At least one would hope.

[DrugS]

If the Holy Bull was that underwhelming - what does it say about the older "Grade 1" males in the Donn Handicap two races later?

They only went 0.49 seconds faster at the same 9f distance.

[cj]

113 for Quality Road.

[OTM Al]

Hey cj, what do you think of the first fraction in that race? I have a hard time believing they went from a 23 4/5 to a 21 4/5 from the first to the second fractions, even wiith the lack of a runup on the timer. Also, did you make a fig for the winner of the 10th? Just curious about how dirt and turf compares at GP considering the 10th was at 2 turn turf mile that went nearly a second faster.

[cj]

I'm just looking at them today. I don't spend a whole lot of time on first fractions, but the 6f time is right in line with a normal final time for the distance. The pace was just about the same as the speed figure. As for the turf, I'll check in later today.

[OTM Al]

Those times sound fine to me too and are what I would expect but 23 4/5 on that first just doesn't seem to fit. If its right though it makes me wonder how crazy fast that first fraction would be if they weren't backed up to the shopping center next door and had a little room for a runup.

[cj]

The runup really does make a huge difference. At Pimlico, even the fastest sprinters in the country barely break 23 going 6f.

[W2G]

I'm sure the beat goes on with IWR yesterday. Anyone know his Beyer? Well over 100 I'd imagine.

[Figman]

It was 114!

[cj]

The pace for the Gotham was very slow, I have it 12 points slower than the speed figure. If you believe that and in Quirin, the 114 would be equivalent of a 108 or so with a normal pace. That is still pretty impressive.

[Bruddah]

Bruddah would be your man to address this kind of inquiry. He'll be the first to tell you that he was on top of all of this "weak crop" stuff last year. Then he'll tell you that I had the gall to ask him how he came to his conclusion...only he'll label it something along the lines of being attacked...but I digress...

Seriously though, Bruddah has this kind of thing covered...hopefully, he'll see the humor of my reply and comment further on how he sees this year shaping up.

Actually, I almost passed out in my recliner. :faint:

Over the years, I have found the Beyer numbers to be very indicative of the strength of the 3yo crop. However, I wait until all of the preps have been run and the Derby field determined, before making any assesment. It's just a process of elimination and getting to the "best 20" of the 3yo crop.

While certainly not scientific, it has served my handicapping purposes since 1992 or 1993. (I can't remember which year I started.) I know there have been better numbers produced since then (e.g. Cj's) but I have used Beyers' because they were the only ones available back then and my original db was built with them. Also, they have been shown to be very indicative of the strength of each year's 3 yo generation.

I should add, I use a Beyer figure for races over 95 for those in the Derby field.

By the way PA, Thanks for predicting what I would say to these good folks. :D

[Watcher]

These are the horses I have with 100+ Beyers in Stakes races since Jan 1, 2009:



Notonthesamepage - 114 Beyer - 6F Spectacular Bid Stakes

Silver City - 101 Beyer - 5 1/2F Dixieland Stakes

Taqarub - 103 Beyer - 6F Jimmy Winkfield Stakes

This Ones for Phil - 116 Beyer - 6F Sunshine Millions Dash Stakes

General Quarters - 102 Beyer - 1 1/16 Sam F. Davis Stakes

The Pamplemousse - 103 Beyer - 1 1/8 Sham Stakes

Quality Road - 113 Beyer - 1M Fountain of Youth Stakes

I Want Revenge - 113 Beyer - 1 1/16 Gotham Stakes

[Blenheim]

"Following up on the Gotham PF question I did the analysis using Beyer's own two-turn speed ratings as found in "Beyer on Speed". The raw Gotham figure for a final time of 1:42.3 is 111 against a par of 107. The two other routes showed raw BSFs of 89 against a par of 87 and 73 against a par of 71. That accounts for a daily variant of 3 BSF units fast, making I Want Revenge's adjusted figure 108. I can't imagine how Beyer came up with a BSF of 113 (Roman 2009).