Call me crazy, but.....

[Hajck Hillstrom]

I've wanted to comment on this perspective for some time now, and throw it out there for you data base guys to analyze.

For a few years now, I've noticed a numerous examples of long priced winners at certain tracks are listed on the morning line at odds of 12-1. My question would be this: Would it be possible to do a search and find out if individual tracks could show a positive ROI over the course of a meet by merely wagering a flat bet wager on every horse that goes to post that was 12-1 on the morning line? Let's make the test track Turfway Park, though there are 3 other tracks, IMHO, that show an even greater propensity for its usefulness.

The simple rational is this; should one contender win on the card, you will usually show a profit on the day, especially if the 12-1 ML is overlayed, and multiple winners on card can be exampled today at Turfway Park where there were 6 horses on the card that went to post with a ML of 12-1. Three of those horses won with WIN payouts of $31.00, $24.00, & $70.20. That $12 wager today yielded a profit of $112.20!

It is my contention that certain writers of Morning Lines perceive conditions in a way that lend themselves to placing viable contenders at a morning line of 12-1. Not 10-1, 15-1, 8-1, or 20-1..... but 12-1.

I'm just furthering Mark Cramer's search of the automatic wager. If anyone wants to run the numbers, please respond to this thread. The rest of you can just bet the theory. thus rendering it useless. :D

One thing is certain, you will notice those winning 12-1 ML shots in a different light after reading this.

[DanG]

I've wanted to comment on this perspective for some time now, and throw it out there for you data base guys to analyze.

It is my contention that certain writers of Morning Lines perceive conditions in a way that lend themselves to placing viable contenders at a morning line of 12-1. Not 10-1, 15-1, 8-1, or 20-1..... but 12-1.

If anyone wants to run the numbers, please respond to this thread. The rest of you can just bet the theory. thus rendering it useless. :D

Hopefully Doug this means your betting again! :ThmbUp:

12-1 MLO; as ordered by track: (last 2 years and minimum sample size 100)
TRK MLO Plays Wins Win WROI I.V.
ALB 12 284 11 4% $0.44 0.32
AP 12 1401 90 6% $0.94 0.53
AQU 12 654 40 6% $0.87 0.50
AQUi 12 997 50 5% $0.59 0.41
ARP 12 293 21 7% $0.84 0.59
BEL 12 1431 87 6% $0.85 0.50
BEU 12 1023 45 4% $0.77 0.36
BM 12 656 34 5% $0.58 0.42
BOI 12 148 16 11% $0.76 0.89
BRD 12 274 18 7% $1.08 0.54
CBY 12 674 24 4% $0.54 0.29
CD 12 1235 51 4% $0.69 0.34
CLS 12 224 11 5% $0.52 0.40
CNL 12 440 25 6% $0.74 0.47
CRC 12 2808 146 5% $0.83 0.43
CT 12 3716 153 4% $0.67 0.34
DED 12 1433 78 5% $0.74 0.45
DEL 12 1166 56 5% $0.65 0.39
DMR 12 639 35 5% $0.75 0.45
ELP 12 426 24 6% $0.84 0.46
EMD 12 726 37 5% $0.68 0.42
EVD 12 2062 92 4% $0.63 0.37
FE 12 2302 158 7% $0.85 0.56
FG 12 1564 64 4% $0.62 0.34
FL 12 1272 69 5% $0.83 0.44
FMT 12 194 15 8% $0.79 0.63
FON 12 511 19 4% $0.43 0.30
FP 12 679 36 5% $0.92 0.43
FPX 12 236 17 7% $1.04 0.59
GG 12 1379 60 4% $0.74 0.36
GLD 12 277 18 6% $0.58 0.53
GP 12 1971 105 5% $0.78 0.44
HAW 12 1332 72 5% $0.74 0.44
HOL 12 1183 64 5% $0.75 0.44
HOO 12 359 18 5% $0.50 0.41
HOU 12 672 28 4% $0.74 0.34
HST 12 718 35 5% $0.85 0.40
IND 12 604 32 5% $0.64 0.43
KEE 12 591 29 5% $0.63 0.40
LA 12 340 12 4% $0.69 0.29
LAD 12 1404 72 5% $0.81 0.42
LBG 12 348 15 4% $0.36 0.35
LNN 12 407 20 5% $0.60 0.40
LRL 12 1310 74 6% $0.74 0.46
LS 12 898 49 5% $0.68 0.45
MED 12 319 12 4% $0.73 0.31
MNR 12 2889 126 4% $0.72 0.36
MTH 12 745 38 5% $0.89 0.42
NP 12 497 37 7% $0.80 0.61
OP 12 891 49 5% $0.73 0.45
PEN 12 2162 116 5% $0.71 0.44
PHA 12 3535 215 6% $0.75 0.50
PID 12 523 30 6% $0.89 0.47
PIM 12 323 20 6% $0.77 0.51
PLN 12 111 7 6% $0.74 0.52
PM 12 456 15 3% $0.45 0.27
PNL 12 154 11 7% $0.51 0.58
PRM 12 1052 51 5% $0.61 0.40
RD 12 1094 61 6% $0.61 0.46
RET 12 1214 65 5% $0.57 0.44
RP 12 835 49 6% $0.66 0.48
RUI 12 250 12 5% $0.76 0.39
SA 12 1651 83 5% $0.75 0.41
SAR 12 649 43 7% $1.06 0.54
SR 12 134 6 4% $0.77 0.37
SRP 12 267 13 5% $0.49 0.40
STP 12 477 33 7% $0.88 0.57
SUF 12 892 50 6% $0.75 0.46
SUN 12 1056 46 4% $0.81 0.36
TAM 12 1679 87 5% $0.73 0.42
TDN 12 1583 46 3% $0.57 0.24
TP 12 1706 87 5% $0.77 0.42
TUP 12 1668 63 4% $0.62 0.31
WDS 12 117 7 6% $1.24 0.49
WO 12 4639 295 6% $0.81 0.52
WRD 12 482 19 4% $0.43 0.32
YAV 12 382 24 6% $0.76 0.51
ZIA 12 416 33 8% $1.32 0.65

A personal favorite; >= 30-1 MLO:
TRK MLO Plays Wins Win WROI I.V.
AP >=30 867 11 1% $0.66 0.10
AQU >=30 394 3 1% $0.28 0.06
AQUi >=30 681 8 1% $0.44 0.10
ASD >=30 417 4 1% $0.31 0.08
BEL >=30 1043 6 1% $0.27 0.05
BM >=30 174 3 2% $0.74 0.14
CBY >=30 137 1 1% $0.37 0.06
CD >=30 585 5 1% $0.26 0.07
CNL >=30 242 2 1% $0.26 0.07
CRC >=30 248 0 0% $0.00 0.00
CT >=30 201 1 0% $0.27 0.04
DED >=30 1196 13 1% $0.40 0.09
DMR >=30 328 2 1% $0.33 0.05
EVD >=30 1739 16 1% $0.37 0.08
FE >=30 295 2 1% $0.10 0.06
FG >=30 495 2 0% $0.21 0.03
FP >=30 172 1 1% $0.16 0.05
FPX >=30 283 3 1% $0.35 0.09
GG >=30 413 2 0% $0.24 0.04
GP >=30 299 2 1% $0.71 0.05
HAW >=30 372 3 1% $0.39 0.07
HOL >=30 668 9 1% $0.56 0.11
KEE >=30 371 5 1% $0.58 0.11
LA >=30 408 3 1% $0.52 0.06
LAD >=30 1668 17 1% $0.49 0.08
LRL >=30 1403 11 1% $0.29 0.06
LS >=30 1354 10 1% $0.31 0.06
MNR >=30 2647 30 1% $0.50 0.09
NP >=30 380 8 2% $0.58 0.17
OP >=30 626 4 1% $0.36 0.05
PEN >=30 2428 27 1% $0.49 0.09
PHA >=30 781 5 1% $0.23 0.05
PIM >=30 318 5 2% $0.60 0.13
PRM >=30 214 0 0% $0.00 0.00
RET >=30 376 4 1% $0.34 0.09
RP >=30 777 13 2% $0.48 0.14
SA >=30 1004 11 1% $0.53 0.09
SAR >=30 339 4 1% $0.45 0.10
STP >=30 129 3 2% $0.50 0.19
SUF >=30 507 6 1% $0.46 0.10
TAM >=30 1142 6 1% $0.29 0.04
TP >=30 1002 12 1% $0.64 0.10
WO >=30 471 3 1% $0.29 0.05
WRD >=30 539 10 2% $0.42 0.15

Carry on my friend…

[asH]

crazy....:D


hey Hajck
last race at Santa Anita still a thrill..last 3 days before today head ,nose, nose, nose ...you sure you're ready:)

asH

[BombsAway Bob]

I've wanted to comment on this perspective for some time now, and throw it out there for you data base guys to analyze.
For a few years now, I've noticed a numerous examples of long priced winners at certain tracks are listed on the morning line at odds of 12-1. My question would be this: Would it be possible to do a search and find out if individual tracks could show a positive ROI over the course of a meet by merely wagering a flat bet wager on every horse that goes to post that was 12-1 on the morning line? Let's make the test track Turfway Park, though there are 3 other tracks, IMHO, that show an even greater propensity for its usefulness.
The simple rational is this; should one contender win on the card, you will usually show a profit on the day, especially if the 12-1 ML is overlayed, and multiple winners on card can be exampled today at Turfway Park where there were 6 horses on the card that went to post with a ML of 12-1. Three of those horses won with WIN payouts of $31.00, $24.00, & $70.20. That $12 wager today yielded a profit of $112.20!
It is my contention that certain writers of Morning Lines perceive conditions in a way that lend themselves to placing viable contenders at a morning line of 12-1. Not 10-1, 15-1, 8-1, or 20-1..... but 12-1.
I'm just furthering Mark Cramer's search of the automatic wager. If anyone wants to run the numbers, please respond to this thread. The rest of you can just bet the theory. thus rendering it useless. :D
One thing is certain, you will notice those winning 12-1 ML shots in a different light after reading this.
Hajck, You're onto something. Tonight marks Eleven months that I've been keeping notes & fractional times on LOS AL races. Ed Burgart is one of, if not the best in the biz in making morning lines & DRF "At a Glance" notes. He also has a nightly handicapping sheet @ www.losalamitos.com (http://www.losalamitos.com/) (where they also produce THE BEST RECAP/Betting Entry Sheet). I staple the two together, and use them to write my notes & selections on for an easy notes chart.
Anyhoo, ED gives out Pick-4 tickets on his sheet (usually in the $24-$36 range). He seldom hits the "Schrupp" Button, & will single against the ML fave (which he makes). But the thing I kept noticing was when Ed went FOUR DEEP in a Pick-4 leg. His handicap sheet includes a line or two on his top three selections in a race. But when he went 4 deep in a Pick-4 leg, it seemed his fourth choice kept winning! Always a Double-digit winner, & usually 9/2ml to 8/1ml, they ALWAYS light up a Pick-4 will-pay.
I went back, & over a 6-month period, Ed's Fourth Choice was winning at a crazy 24%! I missed two nights in Dec. due to the Ice Storm of '08, but soon I'll have a 9-month total. IMPRESSIVE..I should be betting 'em to Win, too!

[overthehill]

looking at the results it would appear that many of the 12-1 shots should have been listed at 15-1.

[asH]

Bomb's your info is more useful than ML's in general, or what Hajck is asking for. You can compare Ed's morning line to his actual picks which is very helpful in finding a live horse. the other way you wont know how or why a MLO maker uses their ML choices, which is most important to the good info equation.

[DSB]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the "hows" or "whys" of differences between a 12-1 or 15-1 in a morning line.

Very often, the only reason a ML handicapper will make a horse 15-1 is because 12-1 on the same horse would make the line go "over".

Most ML makers will assign odds to the whole field, add up the line, then make adjustments.

After making MLs for a good period of time, the gut will usually get the line very close to balanced.

Most often, it will only take an adjustment of, say, 12-1 to 15-1 to balance it.