the wonder of the game

[formula_2002]

THE WONDER OF THE GAME.
In over 530 out of sample system races, it was possible to break even playing the favorite to win. (The place roi was .97, the show roi was 1.00).

When the system pick (the favorite) was used in an exacta with the second and third choice (1/2, 3) the exacta pool roi was about the same as the win pool bet roi.
As mentioned, the win pool bet had a 1.00 roi. The exacta bet had a 1.02 roi.

Considering that the win pool take is about 18% and the exacta pool take is about 25% it’s a wonder how the public makes the adjustment between the two pools.

The only edge I can see in playing the exacta is you maybe able to get a better rebate deal.

The win, place, show combination pool bets has a 55% probability of breaking even after 10 plays.
Given a 5% rebate, the breakeven probability goes up to 70%
Given a 7% rebate, the breakeven probability is 75%.

It would be very nice if history repeats, and you can get a 10% exacta pool rebate,. :)

[ryesteve]

As mentioned, the win pool bet had a 1.00 roi. The exacta bet had a 1.02 roi.

Considering that the win pool take is about 18% and the exacta pool take is about 25% it’s a wonder how the public makes the adjustment between the two pools.I don't think this is because they're "adjusting"... I think it's because the "longshot bias" is more pronounced. With so many people betting boxes and wheels in equal amounts, it gives a bump to the amount of money being placed on lower percentage combinations.

[formula_2002]

I don't think this is because they're "adjusting"... I think it's because the "longshot bias" is more pronounced. With so many people betting boxes and wheels in equal amounts, it gives a bump to the amount of money being placed on lower percentage combinations.

well, whatever the reason may be, the edge seems not to have changed between the two pools (ex,win). right?

[lamboguy]

i think i have this game figured out to a "T" right now. i got real sick of the after the bell players getting me on every bet i make on a speed horse that gets to the lead, knowing ahead of time that the horse on the lead odds will go down 90% of the time. i have now dedicated my efforts on playing on horses that are going to be off the pace types. i had one yesterday in santa anita 6th race. i bet on the winner, her price went up from 3-1 to pay $10 during the race. in my mind i got paid 33% more than she was worth.

since 70% of all horses break in the top 4 it will limit the amount of plays that i will have. its better than losing!!

[formula_2002]

i think i have this game figured out to a "T" right now. i got real sick of the after the bell players getting me on every bet i make on a speed horse that gets to the lead, knowing ahead of time that the horse on the lead odds will go down 90% of the time. i have now dedicated my efforts on playing on horses that are going to be off the pace types. i had one yesterday in santa anita 6th race. i bet on the winner, her price went up from 3-1 to pay $10 during the race. in my mind i got paid 33% more than she was worth.

since 70% of all horses break in the top 4 it will limit the amount of plays that i will have. its better than losing!!

extend the vetical line portion of the "T" to just above the top of the "T".
Thats what you get nailed on!! :)

[toetoe]

Lambo,

Only because you brought up the numbers, and with no flamboyance intended, I humbly submit that you got 25% extra, not 33%. (:Cringing, but cautiously optimistic.) :)