Clustered finishes and Cookie Cutter figs

[mountainman]

As a player, I stick to dirt ovals. As an analyst, however, I must try to interpret synthetic form and have developed some (certainly UNoriginal) theories that I suspect research to date can validate.

We get lots of Woodbine horses here at Mountaineer , and their forms all look the same. One similarity is that these shippers have rarely been beaten by wide margins when racing on polytrack. Not surprisingly, their speed figs are likewise uniform showing none of the extreme variation common to all but the most consistent dirt runners. Such clustering is so characteristic of turf racing, that Beyer compensates for it in his figs. Can someone verify that All Weather surfaces are akin to grass in this regard, with fields spread out less at the finish than on dirt, and horses more consistent in the beyer column?

[cj]

Verified. The pace is rarely taxing which is what leads to strung out fields most times.

[mountainman]

Verified. The pace is rarely taxing which is what leads to strung out fields most times.

True, just as strong biases or unusual track conditions can string fields out. But can you confirm that your figs (or at least the speed component therein) fluctuate less per individual horse, or for the same class and condition when the surface is fake?

[ryesteve]

Can someone verify that All Weather surfaces are akin to grass in this regard, with fields spread out less at the finish than on dirtThis assumption would be correct. Looking at average beaten lengths at tracks where I have at least 5,000 unique running lines, the synthetics tend to all be at the low end (not sure what's up at TPX)


SAX 5.7
GGX 6.4
WOX 6.8
PID 6.9
APX 7.1
EMD 7.2
SUN 8.1
FLX 8.1
LRL 8.4
TUP 8.4
DEL 8.5
TDN 8.6
HAW 8.7
FGX 8.8
AQU 8.8
PHA 9.0
TPX 9.2
DED 9.2
CRC 9.3
CTX 9.4
EVD 9.8
MNR 9.9
TAM 9.9
SUF 10.0
LAD 10.1
PEN 10.1
BEU 10.2

[BombsAway Bob]

I seem to remember some nice turf horses in years past that used to run 'em off their feet(imo). Lure, Bucks Boy, & others would say "catch me if you can". Why don't other trainers attempt theft in turf routes, with everyone seemingly always taking back early? West Coast turfers can & do go wire-to-wire with success, but you don't see it often in NY/KY circuits. Softer ground? Just trying to make sense of my weakest part of the game(and that's SAYING SOMETHING!)

[mountainman]

This assumption would be correct. Looking at average beaten lengths at tracks where I have at least 5,000 unique running lines, the synthetics tend to all be at the low end (not sure what's up at TPX)


SAX 5.7
GGX 6.4
WOX 6.8
PID 6.9
APX 7.1
EMD 7.2
SUN 8.1
FLX 8.1
LRL 8.4
TUP 8.4
DEL 8.5
TDN 8.6
HAW 8.7
FGX 8.8
AQU 8.8
PHA 9.0
TPX 9.2
DED 9.2
CRC 9.3
CTX 9.4
EVD 9.8
MNR 9.9
TAM 9.9
SUF 10.0
LAD 10.1
PEN 10.1
BEU 10.2

Sweet. Thanks for confirming my intuitive observation. Now way could the cheaper Woodbine horses be as consistent as their forms make it appear.

[cj]

Sweet. Thanks for confirming my intuitive observation. Now way could the cheaper Woodbine horses be as consistent as their forms make it appear.

Exactly, the value of a length, or Beyer point, or whatever you want to use is greater on synthetics than on dirt.

[mountainman]

Exactly, the value of a length, or Beyer point, or whatever you want to use is greater on synthetics than on dirt.
Tx man.

[cj]

One other thing you have probably noticed is that because of what you mentioned, cheap horses tend to have inflated figures, and top class horses (if there are any left!) tend to have deflated figures, at least compared to turf. The longer the race, the more this is magnified.

[rokitman]

I would expect that average field size would have a big impact on that beaten lengths list. Also, average distance, but suspect that would not be "strung out " enough to make a big impact, except at tracks like LA that are firing away regularly with those 4.5F races, or Colonial, that are doing a lot of turf routes. But sumthin sure seems to be up with the artificial tracks based on that cluster of them at the top of the list.

[cj's dad]

I seem to remember some nice turf horses in years past that used to run 'em off their feet(imo). Lure, Bucks Boy, & others would say "catch me if you can". Why don't other trainers attempt theft in turf routes, with everyone seemingly always taking back early? West Coast turfers can & do go wire-to-wire with success, but you don't see it often in NY/KY circuits. Softer ground? Just trying to make sense of my weakest part of the game(and that's SAYING SOMETHING!)


Your catch me if you can approach has worked several times this meet at Tampa at some very nice prices.

[ryesteve]

... except at tracks like LA that are firing away regularly with those 4.5F racesGood point. I didn't have enough lines from LAX to make it worth including, but yes, the average there was very, very low.