EXACTA COMBINATIONS

[heloyg]

I am looking for a way to get a statistical advantage on exacta combinations I would like to see if anyone knows of a way to track exacta combinations and see if there is a bias in combinations in different tracks can someone help.

I would like to systematically place exacta bets for the day on one or two combinations Would like to bet $40 a race on lets say 1-4 for all nine races has this been looked at before and does it have any merit.

thanks

[misscashalot]

If by combination you mean bet ranking, eg. 1=favorite Not in the long run.

[heloyg]

I would like to take handicapping and emotion out of it and just play exactas with high percentage. example if I could track and say san anita has a high percentage of 8-9 comming in I would play all nine races 8-9 for 40.00 would like to see if this has merit

thanks for all replies

[dav4463]

I would like to take handicapping and emotion out of it and just play exactas with high percentage. example if I could track and say san anita has a high percentage of 8-9 comming in I would play all nine races 8-9 for 40.00 would like to see if this has merit

thanks for all replies


Play 10+ horse fields only. Box the four highest odds on the morning line. You won't need to hit too many! Who knows? You might hit a life-changing bet!

[ryesteve]

Play 10+ horse fields only. Box the four highest odds on the morning line. You won't need to hit too many! Who knows? You might hit a life-changing bet!
This strategy would've lost you 38% over 2008. If you played AQU, you went 403 bets without cashing. If you played GP, you went 691 bets without cashing. PEN, 577; RP, 470; TP, 352; SAR, 293; HOL 286; IND, 322; KEE, 312; PHA, 742.

In other words, this isn't the best idea...

[misscashalot]

This strategy would've lost you 38% over 2008. If you played AQU, you went 403 bets without cashing. If you played GP, you went 691 bets without cashing. PEN, 577; RP, 470; TP, 352; SAR, 293; HOL 286; IND, 322; KEE, 312; PHA, 742.

In other words, this isn't the best idea...

And then again, if there was a yes, which there isn't, who would devulge the secret?

[SMOO]

And then again, if there was a yes, which there isn't, who would devulge the secret?

How about throwing out the MLF & anything double digit ML, box the rest?

[ryesteve]

How about throwing out the MLF & anything double digit ML, box the rest?
-20% in 2008

[SMOO]

-20% in 2008
Well at least we're moving in the right direction. :lol:

[formula_2002]

This strategy would've lost you 38% over 2008. If you played AQU, you went 403 bets without cashing. If you played GP, you went 691 bets without cashing. PEN, 577; RP, 470; TP, 352; SAR, 293; HOL 286; IND, 322; KEE, 312; PHA, 742.

In other words, this isn't the best idea...
having and using the data is a wonderful thing eh!! :)

[heloyg]

Thanks for all the info thought it might be a good idea. As the saying goes if you want to make money you gotta work hard no easy way. I will stick to handicapping races.

[JustRalph]

Good Stuff Steve........ :ThmbUp:

[BlueShoe]

For those chasing boxcar exacta payoffs,there is a stat that might cool the urge just a bit;in 90% of all races one of the first three choices will finish first or second.

[citygoat]

I would like to take handicapping and emotion out of it and just play exactas with high percentage. example if I could track and say san anita has a high percentage of 8-9 comming in I would play all nine races 8-9 for 40.00 would like to see if this has merit

thanks for all replies

Pick two numbers and all on a 50/50(3 7 0, 3 7 1,...).Forget the races and go to the lottery machine.Only $10.Put the other 30 dollars (25 straight on 3 7 1 and 5 dollars on boxing 3 7 1).

payoffs

50/50 only (327 or 371) == 41 or 291
if 371 shows up == 13,206

[Overlay]

Douglas Railey's Exacta Expose from some years ago did an analysis of the probability of various exacta combinations based on the ranking of horses in the betting (favorite, second choice, third choice, etc.), rather than post position or saddle-cloth number. You might want to give that a look (if any copies are still available).

[Nosebob]

I am looking for a way to get a statistical advantage on exacta combinations I would like to see if anyone knows of a way to track exacta combinations and see if there is a bias in combinations in different tracks can someone help.

I would like to systematically place exacta bets for the day on one or two combinations Would like to bet $40 a race on lets say 1-4 for all nine races has this been looked at before and does it have any merit.

thanks

Some years ago, I remember reading a small book which presented results of boxing the four adjacent outside post positions (four two horse combinations) at Los Alamitos Quarterhorse meets.

Details are a bit vague in my memory, but I believe the study covered several years and had a positive return. Profits depended on some boxcar returns which occasionally came in.

The theory was that a track bias existed which caused outside horses to have an advantage, and a secondary advantage was the improved performance of a horse running from a post position adjacent to a winner.

I'm not endorsing the method, but it seemed to fit the requirements of the question.

Nosebob

[fmolf]

i use a chart i take to the races or teletheater an it is put out by barry meadow in his book... i got it from "The best of thoroughbred handicapping"...by James Quinn.....gives overlayed prices so all you need to do is watch the will pay board

[michiken]

What about a simple approach like keying the two best early A,B with the two best late horses C,D and backwheeling it?

AB // CD

CD // AB

Initial cost at $2 would be $16 bucks per race. Once you get the system down, then you can step it up to $4. $6. $8 or $10 exactas to get to your $40 per race.

I have hit some bombers using this mentality.

[dav4463]

This strategy would've lost you 38% over 2008. If you played AQU, you went 403 bets without cashing. If you played GP, you went 691 bets without cashing. PEN, 577; RP, 470; TP, 352; SAR, 293; HOL 286; IND, 322; KEE, 312; PHA, 742.

In other words, this isn't the best idea...

Wow! I'm glad I didn't play it! Were there any giant ones that you might have hit with dumb luck and then maybe one more a few races later that you could have stopped on with a huge profit?

[dav4463]

This one might work.

Play 870 yard races only. Play 1 w 23, a 1-2 box and a 1,2,3 box. If two of the three horses are top two morning line....pass the race.