Santa Anita Rail

[Onion Monster]

Looked like the Keeneland of old out there today. What causes such pronounced rail biases on the fake stuff?

[cj]

Moisture usually.

[George Sands]

Looked like the Keeneland of old out there today. What causes such pronounced rail biases on the fake stuff?

And what causes 22-1 shots to go seven-wide into the stretch and overcome the bias?

[bobphilo]

Looked like the Keeneland of old out there today. What causes such pronounced rail biases on the fake stuff?

Perhaps the best horses happen to draw the rail?

Varying ability of horses is a huge confounding variable that requires a very large sample to even out. A day or 2 of racing is way too small a sample to rule it out and assume a bias.

[Onion Monster]

And what causes 22-1 shots to go seven-wide into the stretch and overcome the bias?

Saving ground along the rail until the stretch?

[George Sands]

Saving ground along the rail until the stretch?

This is comical. Watch the replay.

[Bruddah]

I thought the plastic stuff was supposed to eliminate track bias? Seems to me it's no different than dirt. The plastic surface throws "fines" (dust) in the summer, which requires riders to wear masks. (not good for the human lungs) The plastic does freeze. It makes no difference if the surface is dirt or plastic, when it comes to severe wind chill factors. Artificial surfaces are in fact more expensive to maintain and are more quirky. Horses breaking down are virtually the same.

How much are we willing to concede to the Euros in order to get them to come and race here? Now, we are putting race callers with nasal accents at our best racing venues. All in the name of some imagined "CORRECTNES" to entice the Euros to race in America. Seems to me, they could offer the same (only reversed) Correctness to get us to race in their best races. Have them hire American race callers to call the Prix de la Chumps, on dirt, no less.

Oh! I forgot, they really don't want to be like Ugly, Uncouthed Americans. Besides they don't want us to bring our best (Curlin et. al.) to their week long boutique meets.

Correctness = Bull No matter how you spell it.

[George Sands]

Perhaps the best horses happen to draw the rail?

Varying ability of horses is a huge confounding variable that requires a very large sample to even out. A day or 2 of racing is way too small a sample to rule it out and assume a bias.

Take the 30 seconds to look at the charts, Bob. It will make your patented pedantry more effective.

[speed]

Take the 30 seconds to look at the charts, Bob. It will make your patented pedantry more effective.

I hate it when i have to look up the meaning of a word. :)

[Onion Monster]

George, you're right. I just went to Cal Racing and watched the replay a couple of times. She did stay inside for a while but was forced widest into the stretch.

She did wake up for her new connections last time, though. But I still couldn't have pulled the trigger.

[bobphilo]

Take the 30 seconds to look at the charts, Bob. It will make your patented pedantry more effective.

George, I’m not going to get into a pissing contest to see who can insult the other with the biggest words. Yes, I did look at the charts and when you eliminate the horses that figured to win anyway, you get too small a sample to declare a rail bias when you consider all the other factors determining performance.

Sorry, but the rules of statistics contradict your claim of bias – look it up in any introductory stats book - and all your insults won’t change that.


Bob

[George Sands]

George, I’m not going to get into a pissing contest to see who can insult the other with the biggest words. Yes, I did look at the charts and when you eliminate the horses that figured to win anyway, you get too small a sample to declare a rail bias when you consider all the other factors determining performance.

Sorry, but the rules of statistics contradict your claim of bias – look it up in any introductory stats book - and all your insults won’t change that.


I was not making a claim of bias. I was challenging a claim of bias. As for reading the charts, did you read them before you made your post last night?