February 28, 2009 - FoY & Sham

[Watcher]

Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Sham Stakes this weekend...


Gulfstream Park - February 28th, 2009 - Race 9
Fountain of Youth S. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:14 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $250,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Bee Cee Cee (FL) 3 Colt 120 Cornelio H. Velasquez
2 Theregoesjojo (KY) 3 Colt 116 Kent J. Desormeaux
3 Notonthesamepage (KY) 3 Colt 120 Elvis Trujillo
4 Take the Points (KY) 3 Colt 116 Christopher P. DeCarlo
5 Jack Spratt (KY) 3 Colt 120 Rene R. Douglas
6 Rocketing Returns (FL) 3 Colt 116 Jose Lezcano
7 Beethoven (KY) 3 Colt 122 Calvin H. Borel
8 Break Water Edison (KY) 3 Colt 122 Eibar Coa
9 Capt. Candyman Can (KY) 3 Gelding 122 Julien R. Leparoux
10 Taqarub (KY) 3 Colt 120 Alan Garcia
11 Quality Road (VA) 3 Colt 114 John R. Velazquez
12 This Ones for Phil (FL) 3 Gelding 120 Edgar S. Prado




Santa Anita Park - February 28th, 2009 - Race 9
Sham S. - Grade: 3
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:38 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $200,000
Distance: One And One Eighth Miles
Surface: All Weather Track
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Hi Flyin Indy (KY) 3 Colt 116 Alonso Quinonez
2 Smart Bid (PA) 3 Colt 118 Rafael Bejarano
3 Tiz True (KY) 3 Colt 116 Aaron T. Gryder
4 Lifeline (KY) 3 Colt 116 Tyler Baze
5 The Pamplemousse (KY) 3 Colt 118 Alex O. Solis
6 Balfour Park (KY) 3 Colt 116 Brice Blanc
7 Mr. Hot Stuff (KY) 3 Colt 116 Corey S. Nakatani
8 Bourbon Bay (KY) 3 Gelding 116 Joel Rosario
9 Ventana (KY) 3 Colt 116 Jesus M. Rios
10 Mark S the Cooler (KY) 3 Gelding 116 Joseph Talamo
11 Unbridled Roman (CA) 3 Colt 116 Mike E. Smith
12 Take the Points (KY) 3 Colt 118 Garrett K. Gomez



Picks?

[FlyinLate]

The FoY looks to be a very competitive race. Without the form in front of me I can't tell you who I will select.

As for the Sham, everyone says its wide open. I disagree. The Pamplemousse and Mr. Hot Stuff I believe are better than the lot.

[Tread]

I like Mr. Hot Stuff in a romp

[point given]

Take The Points cross entered. I thought he was shipping out to SA for the Sham though. In the Gulfstream race I liked the way Leparoux took Captain Candyman off the hot pace and then circled back to collar the leaders last time. Now he has an outside post which should be nice.

[Robert Fischer]

FOY is such a high powered race.
6 of the 12 entered have run 120 Bris CR ratings. These are a performance rating that accounts for speed and class.
5 of them did it in their last race!
For comparison, The Sham Stakes has just one runner with a 120 Bris CR rating.

Capt. Candyman Can is the class of the field.

It's a very tough race and you could take a lot of different angles - Taqarub on the front, This Ones For Phil with a huge effort, even Theregoesjojo from just off the pace...

[rastajenk]

I'll be interested in whether "Phil" and "SamePage" run back to their big numbers, or settle back in with the rest of their generation. If I had to make a prediction, I'd guess the latter.

[Robert Fischer]

I'll be interested in whether "Phil" and "SamePage" run back to their big numbers, or settle back in with the rest of their generation. If I had to make a prediction, I'd guess the latter.
Whether they do or not will shape the race.

of the two, I think Phil has the chance to run back a huge race. The key here with all this speed signed on will be allowing TOFP to stay off the pace just a little early. Should be a finesse ride, and Prado has struggled lately, but this one is explosive. With TOFP, the 1:11 work adds to the confidence. Calder is a tiring surface, and i think his true form there hints that he doesn't want to battle all race.

Have serious doubts about Samepage. Its more of a gut feeling so take it for what it's worth. I don't like that they've been "saving" him for the stakes race even though the worktab is excellent. His form indicates he has consistent early sprint speed, but can not rate.

[racefinder2]

OK, heres a different POV, and my typical naive questions...

Why would anyone in their right mind, use as an early 3yo Derby prep---
1) A one turn mile race
2) A Polytrack race

Not to say these are 'bad races', but in the bigger picture view ???

[oddsmaven]

The track line looks reasonable to me but here is what I'd expect the odds to be:

2.70 - This Ones for Phil
3.20 - Capt Candyman Can
3.40 - Notonthesamepage
7.10 - Taqarub
8.80 - Quality Road
8.80 - Beethoven

The pace figures hot with Notonthesamepage & Taqarub, so they'll have it tough & Quality Road should be hurt trying to stay with them. The best closer is Beethoven, but he's not particularly sharp right now. I'd take the solid Candyman but worry about "improvement" Dutrow pulled off with TOfP.

[Tom]

OK, heres a different POV, and my typical naive questions...

Why would anyone in their right mind, use as an early 3yo Derby prep---
1) A one turn mile race
2) A Polytrack race

Not to say these are 'bad races', but in the bigger picture view ???

Makes sense. STREET SENSE. ;)

[Bubbles]

Break Water Edison ran a very solid mile race in winning the Nashua. He's gotten the distance successfully before, and I think that if he runs that race again, he's a contender at a very juicy price (15-1 morning-line).

[point given]

OK, heres a different POV, and my typical naive questions...

Why would anyone in their right mind, use as an early 3yo Derby prep---
1) A one turn mile race
2) A Polytrack race

Not to say these are 'bad races', but in the bigger picture view ???
The 1 mile race at GP is a progression for those horses who ran in the 7F prep for it and the Florida Derby @ 1 1/8. Since they can no longer run 1 1/6 races at GP and the 1 1/8 starts close to the clubhouse turn where outside post horses are up against it. The alternative is running in the Tampa Bay Derby or shipping further away.

[sam i am]

I really like Quality Road in this race, came out of the box first time and had lots of derby talk right away , ran again started a step slow and had a little health issues, but Jerkens has this guy firing bullets again. not the most favorable set up with speed up and down in this race, but speed has been very good at GP and its only 8f @9-1 will have win and use with a couple in gimmicks with Beethoven and Theregoes Jojo.

[nijinski]

I really like Quality Road in this race, came out of the box first time and had lots of derby talk right away , ran again started a step slow and had a little health issues, but Jerkens has this guy firing bullets again. not the most favorable set up with speed up and down in this race, but speed has been very good at GP and its only 8f @9-1 will have win and use with a couple in gimmicks with Beethoven and Theregoes Jojo.

Did Garcia pick Tagarub over him?

[WinterTriangle]

FOY is such a high powered race.
6 of the 12 entered have run 120 Bris CR ratings. These are a performance rating that accounts for speed and class.
5 of them did it in their last race!
For comparison, The Sham Stakes has just one runner with a 120 Bris CR rating.

Capt. Candyman Can is the class of the field.

It's a very tough race and you could take a lot of different angles - Taqarub on the front, This Ones For Phil with a huge effort, even Theregoesjojo from just off the pace...

That was my 4 horse play.
Except I'm still trying to decide between quality road and theregoesjojo

Robert, NOTSP will never make the Derby, so I'm not concerned with him here, other than my FOY wager. Look at Ward's record on stakes races. nada. zero. zilch. 0%

[samyn on the green]

This race is bang up loaded with talent and speed. I want a horse here that is proven to rate and proven to go even longer than the 1 mile distance. Beethoven fits the bill. He has won twice going two turn something not one of the other horses have done even once. Beethoven got a nice spin around the track last time and now cuts back while most stretchout. Beethoven looks like a standout here.

[rjorio]

Quality Road,Jimmy Jerkens charge,working bullets,first time lasix ,Johnny V.rides,in light[114lbs] for the upset today. ML 8-1

[eastie]

I really like Quality Road in this race, came out of the box first time and had lots of derby talk right away , ran again started a step slow and had a little health issues, but Jerkens has this guy firing bullets again. not the most favorable set up with speed up and down in this race, but speed has been very good at GP and its only 8f @9-1 will have win and use with a couple in gimmicks with Beethoven and Theregoes Jojo.


that a boy samiam. Quality road had a no chance run lat time and should be able to sit off the speed here and punch it when ready. I would have played a little on him of he were offered in the first future. The cat will be out of the bag after today, just like last year with Big Brown who wasn't available in the first one. I don't like that guy who picks the 23 horses available, what a stiff.

on a side note. Beethoven has been brutal in the AM and will be hot and dirty today.

[Golf and Horses]

I like Capt. Candyman Can at 1st glance. Theregoejojo looks to be improving and 15-1 is enticing. Might just play one or both to win, and exacta box. :2: :9:

[joanied]

I'm getting here late:bang: but....
FOY: So much speed...this one's gonna be a fun race to see... Same Page will never get more than a mile, and he'll be smokin' up there with a few others...if Phil holds form, he may hang on and win this...Quality Road been traing great and J Jerkins cannot be overlooked...Candyman Can...a class colt...Beethoven hasn't been at his best, and might be ready to take this...some others warrant watching....my pix:
Beethoven
Capt.Candyman Can
This One's for Phil
Quality Road

Sham....several question marks in this one...but Pamlemousse seems the calss of the field, and looks outstanding in the morning...sure has a fuuny way of going...but goes he does! Mr. Hot Stuff looks to be a good one, and if Baffert doesn't scratch, Venana may take this one form the favorite...and for some reason, I kinda like Smart Bid:
The Pamplemousse
Ventana
Mr. Hot Stuff
Smart Bid

[Golf and Horses]

I really like Quality Road in this race, came out of the box first time and had lots of derby talk right away , ran again started a step slow and had a little health issues, but Jerkens has this guy firing bullets again. not the most favorable set up with speed up and down in this race, but speed has been very good at GP and its only 8f @9-1 will have win and use with a couple in gimmicks with Beethoven and Theregoes Jojo.

Nice hit!

[Watcher]

Here's the Fountain of Youth with Quality Road for those that missed it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6m3mXENX61I

[joanied]

I didn't have him picked...although I knew Jimmy J had him ready to fire...and a very nice win for him...I'm happy with the outcome....Phil tried, but died...and to those who will now say that Dutrow forgot to 'juice' him...if he was juicing him for his first out under Dutrow...he woulda kept juicing him...so, IMO...he's just another nice sprinter...Beethoven was making a nice run...the JoJo horse surprised me.
What happened to Capt. Candyman Can....hmmmmm:confused:

[eastie]

the real Candyman passed away on august 9th 1995. There are So Many Roads...................
but, Quality Road looks like he's on the right road. (this wasn't some 1x either)

[sam i am]

I really like Quality Road in this race, came out of the box first time and had lots of derby talk right away , ran again started a step slow and had a little health issues, but Jerkens has this guy firing bullets again. not the most favorable set up with speed up and down in this race, but speed has been very good at GP and its only 8f @9-1 will have win and use with a couple in gimmicks with Beethoven and Theregoes Jojo.



a little light on the win but had it and was all over the gimmies, if only every day was like today.
:jump:

[Robert Fischer]

a little light on the win but had it and was all over the gimmies, if only every day was like today.
:jump:

Way to call it

[cj]

I can't remember the poster, but someone was touting this horse big time when he was 3 to 5, then doesn't post in this spot, the last time he'll pay anything.

[JPinMaryland]

If the trip notes are accurate Beethoven ran the final 1/4 in 24.7 which is either pretty fast or very fast I guess depending on how this track plays. I saw the replay but didnt see him in particular but it looks like he was wide all the way around...Is Breakwater Edison ok?

[HuskyDomains]

I'm taking a shot on

BALFOUR PARK

In the show slot and all over the gimmicks

[Watcher]

That was a dominating run...

The Pamplemousse in Sham:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLJWYiyBIoE

[FlyinLate]

Wow. Just wow.

[whyhorseofcourse]

The Pamplemousse.......
Just simply wow!
I bet against him because I felt like those odds were insanely low.
Just amazing effort. I have seen lots of 3 year olds this year. By far the most impressive race of the 09 season.

Jumped into my contenders for the derby.

[samyn on the green]

Nice call buddy. Quality Road,Jimmy Jerkens charge,working bullets,first time lasix ,Johnny V.rides,in light[114lbs] for the upset today. ML 8-1

[The Hawk]

The Pamplemousse.......
Just simply wow!
I bet against him because I felt like those odds were insanely low.
Just amazing effort. I have seen lots of 3 year olds this year. By far the most impressive race of the 09 season.

Jumped into my contenders for the derby.

I have the opposite opinion. There was no speed in the race, he shook loose easily, and he capped a two-speed exacta. Every other time this is a race in which to upgrade the closers and downgrade the speeds, see no reason why that doesn't apply here.

Again, just one man's opinion.

[Greyfox]

He never sweat a drop under a hand ride.

[DeanT]

I would wonder some posters thoughts on this horses action.

[DanG]

I would wonder some posters thoughts on this horses action.
Interesting point Dean; the head-on was not text book Dean imo.

His right front has a little outward / paddling motion that certainly appears awkward to my eye. However; in his favor: his head is very still and he is on balance at a high cruising speed; on a track that has not favored fast 2-turn fractions.

Positive: We have some runners this year sprinkled all over the globe as opposed to last year when it was David vs. Goliath.

[joanied]

I would wonder some posters thoughts on this horses action.

He does have a fuuny way of going...he changes leads when he really doesn't need to and has a high knee action...but he's smooth as silk, well balanced...and sure can run....WOW...he looks gorgeous and won without turning a hair...very, very impressive:ThmbUp:

[Jim the Tolerable]

His high knee action reminds me of Barbaro's last work before the Derby.

[classhandicapper]

I was very high on the winner long term and expected an improved effort yesterday, but I thought that was a very difficult spot for him. I was very impressed. That field was loaded with quality and speed. IMO, he ran huge.

[joanied]

the real Candyman passed away on august 9th 1995. There are So Many Roads...................
but, Quality Road looks like he's on the right road. (this wasn't some 1x either)

And the real :ThmbUp: Candyman was one hell of an entertainer!!

[joanied]

His high knee action reminds me of Barbaro's last work before the Derby.

Now that you mention it...yes, it does....hmmmm...could that be an omen of what's to come?

[joanied]

I was very high on the winner long term and expected an improved effort yesterday, but I thought that was a very difficult spot for him. I was very impressed. That field was loaded with quality and speed. IMO, he ran huge.

It was an impressive showing... he lived up to the hype before the race...watching him on HRTV training in the morning...I was sure taken with his looks...can't wait for next out.
I still have Old Fashioned on the top of my list, but The 'Mousse' will probably take over Haskin's top spot...and Pioneerof The Nile is right there too...my problem with Pioneer is no dirt race before the Derby...you cannot doubt Baffert....but if he's ever gonna make a mistake, not putting this colt on dirt before May 2nd, might be the one.

I can't wait for the SA Derby:jump:

[Donnie]

Am I wrong in thinking somewhere I heard/had seen that the higher stepping knee is better on a turf runner? If that's true, I wonder how he would do on the grass??
That was an impressive run yesterday. I personally felt it was a two horse race from the onset....The Mousse and The Points. These 2, in my opinion, at this time of year, have developed into competitive 3 year olds. There are still 60-odd days till Derby Day. Lots of growing to do between now and then. But ya gotta love what Canani said ....when asked if the Paplemousse can rate he replied; “Who cares”!!! A trainer relating to this handicapper's heart!!

[Watcher]

Is The Pamplemousse going to find himself on dirt before Derby week? I don't understand why a trainer wouldn't start acclimating a live Derby contender with non-synthetic surface well before the big day.

[Donnie]

Watcher---
that is a very good question!
CJ always alludes to how poly in many ways is very similar to grass. Hence my "high stepping knee comment". If they don't run him on dirt before the Derby, that will be one of the main things a handicapper will have to battle over.

[W2G]

The 'Mousse has a great future on Cali synth and probably the green stuff too, but I don't like his prospects for the Triple Crown. But he will take a lot of betting action at the windows should he stay on the Derby road and take his shot there, and that's a good thing.

[miesque]

But ya gotta love what Canani said ....when asked if the Paplemousse can rate he replied; “Who cares”!!! A trainer relating to this handicapper's heart!!

At the very least this year's Triple Crown Trail got a bit more fun and entertaining with The Pamplemousse stamping himself as one of the top Derby contenders because Julio will add his own unique flair to the experience. I may be in the minority on this, but after last year with Dutrow I am pretty happy that Bob Baffert and Julio Canani have two major Derby players and will be absorbing much of the ancillary media coverage surrounding the Run for the Roses.

[WinterTriangle]

I was sure taken with his looks...can't wait for next out.

I liked archived film footage with those RED wraps on all 4's......you could see that high stepping, was really a gorgeous thing to watch.

He is awkward looking running but that's, as my doctor would say about something that is abnormal with others, but normal for me: "that's just who you are."

the Mousse runs like this and repeatedly gets the job done.

Olympian runner Emil Zatopek had an inefficient, odd running style yet is considered one of the greatest runners of the 20th century.

[whyhorseofcourse]

I have the opposite opinion. There was no speed in the race, he shook loose easily, and he capped a two-speed exacta. Every other time this is a race in which to upgrade the closers and downgrade the speeds, see no reason why that doesn't apply here.

Again, just one man's opinion.


You know what, thats what horse racing is great everyone has there own opinion.

When I handicapped the race, I thought this race is going to be like Pioneer of the Niles race. Where the favorite will go fast upfront and everyhorse gets flat and the favorite will hang on by a nose.

Not the case this horse finished with a ton.
An amazing effort with tons of class.

I am glad Alex Solis found a derby contender I really do like him.

[FlyinLate]

At the very least this year's Triple Crown Trail got a bit more fun and entertaining with The Pamplemousse stamping himself as one of the top Derby contenders because Julio will add his own unique flair to the experience. I may be in the minority on this, but after last year with Dutrow I am pretty happy that Bob Baffert and Julio Canani have two major Derby players and will be absorbing much of the ancillary media coverage surrounding the Run for the Roses.

Agreed, however it is early. Dutrow has been high and mighty on Patena since he was brought to his barn. A good run in the LA Derby and the media will be surrounding Dutrow again :faint:

[joanied]

At the very least this year's Triple Crown Trail got a bit more fun and entertaining with The Pamplemousse stamping himself as one of the top Derby contenders because Julio will add his own unique flair to the experience. I may be in the minority on this, but after last year with Dutrow I am pretty happy that Bob Baffert and Julio Canani have two major Derby players and will be absorbing much of the ancillary media coverage surrounding the Run for the Roses.

And don't forget Larry Jones....Old Fashioned, if he keeps it up...will put Larry in the sights of the media as well... which is a very, very good thing.

Bet Baffert heaved a sigh of relief when he found out Midshipman is off the Derby Trail...even with Vineyard Haven and that other horse (can't recall his name...Desert something:blush: )...I seriously doubt they'll have much of a shot in the Derby:) )

[joanied]

Watcher---
that is a very good question!
CJ always alludes to how poly in many ways is very similar to grass. Hence my "high stepping knee comment". If they don't run him on dirt before the Derby, that will be one of the main things a handicapper will have to battle over.

I don't handicap:eek: but I feel for all you guys that do...how can you bet much $$ on a horse that hasn't tried dirt before the Derby...and I am really surprised at Baffert...I cannot understand his plan to keep Pioneerof The Nile on the fake stuff until Derby week...it's hard to second guess Baffert...I suppose he beleives gallops and a nice work at Churchill will be enough...I hope he's right.

[FlyinLate]

I don't handicap:eek: but I feel for all you guys that do...how can you bet much $$ on a horse that hasn't tried dirt before the Derby...and I am really surprised at Baffert...I cannot understand his plan to keep Pioneerof The Nile on the fake stuff until Derby week...it's hard to second guess Baffert...I suppose he beleives gallops and a nice work at Churchill will be enough...I hope he's right.

IMO, he believes that shipping him twice to run on dirt (ship east, then to derby) will cause more harm than running on the dirt will do good. He figures that some works will be enough.

[joanied]

IMO, he believes that shipping him twice to run on dirt (ship east, then to derby) will cause more harm than running on the dirt will do good. He figures that some works will be enough.

As I mentioned...ya really can't try second guessing Baffert....and maybe shipping twice would take something out of Pioneer...although IMHO...unless he's a bad shipper, it's probably not gonna hurt the horse at all....maybe Baffert will ship to Churchill more than a week out and get a couple of good works into Pioneer...because, also, IMO...one work over the Churchill dirt may not be enough... this should be interesting.

[philofbelloni]

And don't forget Larry Jones....Old Fashioned, if he keeps it up...will put Larry in the sights of the media as well... which is a very, very good thing.


Also don't forget Friesan Fire. I hope Jones does it with either horse. He went through hell last year.

[Watcher]

Would love to see Mr. Jones get a Derby victory this year!

[joanied]

Friesian Fire sure has the pedigree...like you guys...either horse taking the Derby for Larry J is OK with me...although, for some reason, I prefer Old Fashioned as my 'pick'!!