calculating number of pick 6 winners

[chickenhead]

I'm embarrassed, but I cannot seem to figure out why my numbers aren't coming out right. This is all for California, that is all I'm really interested in.

My assumptions:

The charts report total pool size, before takeout. So takeout needs to be taken out. But not on money carried in.

So I take the "new money" wagered in for that day and multiply by 0.7932.

70% of that number, plus any carryover money, is the 6 of 6 prize pool. 30% of that number of is the consolation pool.

So the algorithm seems like it should be:

CarriedIn$+(0.7*(TotalPool$-CarriedIn$)*0.7932) = 6 of 6 prize pool.

The result does match up very well with the carryover amount if 6 of 6 is not hit. But, if I divide this by the 6 of 6 payout when it is hit, I do not always get very close to even numbers.

What is missing/wrong?

[DJofSD]

What recent day have your computations been discreptant with the pay out results in the charts?

[chickenhead]

yesterday for instance...I get 6.221 winning tickets.

[DJofSD]

With some rounding, I come up with 4.79 winning 6 out of 6 tickets. How many tickets were there?

[toetoe]

Don't know whether this will help, but here goes.

I assign 56% of the day's gross pool to sixers, and 24% to fivers. That's based on 20% takeout, so it's very slightly generous. Of course, on mandatory payout days, in case of no sixers, 80% ( :eek: ) goes to fivers.

I'll tell ya, the countdown, wherein they add the carryover to today's gross pool to come up with a meaningless figure, is to be avoided by all who need no more confusion in their lives. :faint:

[chickenhead]

so yesterday 102704 was carried into the pool. Chart reports 737083 Pool.

Pick 6 paid 73132.8

how many 6 of 6 tickets were there?

(students must show their work ;) )

[DJofSD]

2/21/2009 P6 total pool: 737,083. Less 102,704 which is the carry over from Friday leaves 634,379.

Give Arny 21% leaves 501,159 for the winning tickets to split.

Tickets with 6 out of 6 split 70% of the pool or 350,811.

The charts show 6/6 tickets paid 73,132.80 which when divided into 350,811 gives me 4.7969.

That's my math. I'm opened to corrections.

[chickenhead]

ahhh...I see the problem possibly. The carryover is not reported in the pick 6 pool?

pool = 737083
net pool = 737083*.7932 = 584,654.2356

6 of 6 pool = (584,654.2356)*0.7 = 409,257.96492 plus carryover of 102704 =

511,961.96492

divided by 73132.8 = 7.0004

[DJofSD]

I assumed 737,083 included the carry over from Friday. I don't compute vigorish on the total reported b/c the carry over has already been subjected to the state take out, therefore, I take the carry over out before I compute the withholding by the state. If you leave the prior day's carry over in the withholding computation, it gets taxed twice.

[chickenhead]

no I agree, it defiantly can't be included when taking out the take. What I'm not clear on is whether what they report in the charts for Pick 6 pool is what is wagered in that day, or that plus the carried in amount, or something else. In the above if you assume the carryover is not included in the pool total, and add it in after taking the take, you do end up with a whole number of tickets.

However I still don't get whole numbers for all days without a carryover even.

Thursday Feb. 19th.

Pool: 170771
6 of 6: 4480.4

0.7932*170771 = 135455.5572 net pool

net pool*0.7 = 94818.89004 6 of 6 pool

6 of 6 pool/ 4480.4 = 21.163

wtf? It could be 21 or 22, but not 21.163

[DJofSD]

The monies left over after the calculations goes to the state coffers. Or maybe even some horseman's fund.

Of coarse, not knowing the total number of winning tickets mean were performing an estimate. In a year from now when the window to cash a winning ticket has closed, we'll know the exact number of winning tickets cashed. And then and only then will we know what monies went to the winners and how much went to the state.

[chickenhead]

The payout has to be the result of dividing a whole number into the 6 of 6 pool, there is no other way to get it..which means dividing the 6 of 6 pool by the payout should return a whole number, with the only noise being breakage...which should be several decimal places removed.

I don't see how it could be any different.

[chickenhead]

I should say for the carryover case, I'm also operating under the assumption that monies carried in are solely earmarked for 6 of 6 winners, which I believe is true. I think that is the other reason DJ you and I get different answers, even making the same assumptions about what the reported pool size is and what it means when a carryover is present.


The major share of the net Pick (n) pool, along with the Pick (n) carryover, shall be distributed to ticket holders that selected the first-place finisher in each of the Pick (n) races, based upon the official order of finish, and the minor share of the net Pick (n) pool shall be distributed as a win pool to ticket holders whose selection finished first in the second greatest number of Pick (n) races;

This tells me on carryover days it is 70% of the day's net pool plus the entirety of the carried in amount to the 6 of 6 ers. 30% of the day's net pool to the consos.

[DJofSD]

Oops - you're right, I forgot to put the carry over back into the net pool computation for computing what the 5/6 and 6/6 get to split up.

[Brogan]

Net pool pricing perhaps?

[Imriledup]

I think the conso pool in so cal is 25%.

[DJofSD]

I tried looking on the CA State Law web site for that information. Damnably hard to find. It leaves the impression it is being hidden.

Oh ya, the $117 winner in the first leg of the pick six today means we get to run through that exercise again!!

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Chickenhead,

I didn't look at your numbers but one possible thing could be Canadians betting their CDN$'s into the pool and one of them hit it so after exchange conversion, it calculates at an uneven number.

I know they use to let them bet $2 CDN p-6's but I don't know if they still do.

[chickenhead]

I should have suspected some craziness like this.....it seems plausible, it would result in exactly what I'm seeing.

Thanks ITP.

[Light]

Explain this one. Yesterday I played the GG pk6 for fun on tvgfree.net which I hit for $51K play money. In the last leg I had the only 3 horses that were paying out on 6 of 6. The 1,2,and 6. What doesnt make sense is the 2 won and paid $51k. If the 6 won it was paying $41K. Huh? That's impossible as this reported pool was only $42K so the 6 couldnt possibly pay to 2 tickets. Whoever had the 6 or 2 had to be one ticket. Yet it was like the ticket with the 6 was being penalized.I think the real payout on the 2 had to be the same as the 6 ($42k). Youbet was reporting it as $51k for the 2 and $41k for the 6 but I think they were doing it for a reason rather than an error. TVG did put $51k of play money into my play account. What I dont understand is why it was made to be reported that way. I'm sure whover hit it for real only got $42K.

[DJofSD]

Explain this one. Yesterday I played the GG pk6 for fun on tvgfree.net which I hit for $51K play money. In the last leg I had the only 3 horses that were paying out on 6 of 6. The 1,2,and 6. What doesnt make sense is the 2 won and paid $51k. If the 6 won it was paying $41K. Huh? That's impossible as this reported pool was only $42K so the 6 couldnt possibly pay to 2 tickets. Whoever had the 6 or 2 had to be one ticket. Yet it was like the ticket with the 6 was being penalized.I think the real payout on the 2 had to be the same as the 6 ($42k). Youbet was reporting it as $51k for the 2 and $41k for the 6 but I think they were doing it for a reason rather than an error. TVG did put $51k of play money into my play account. What I dont understand is why it was made to be reported that way. I'm sure whover hit it for real only got $42K.
By any chance was some of the differences in probable pay outs due to the 1, 2 or 6 being an alternate selection?

[toetoe]

Saturday's results said the carryover was $16,811. Okay, fine. Add roughly 56% of Sunday's pool of $42,000-plus and you'll get about $23,802. Add that to $16,811 and you'll get $40,000 and change. :confused:
(:Scratching heezy.)

[maxwell]

I believe the Cal. pick 6 split is 75/25?

$2 Cdn. pick 6 wagers are still a go. Three bucks would be a killer for most players. I don't know how they work that one out; the exchange rate perhaps? I don't think wagers originating outside of the U.S. are subject to the withholding tax? I'd really love to win big in order to find out. :D

[chickenhead]

yesterday was more evidence that the carryover pool is not reported in the Pick 6 chart totals, $700K carried in, reported pool of $2mil. Calcs I showed earlier, assuming carryover is not included in the total, gives 2.00 tickets even.

Of course racing, in it's usual ham fisted way or treating people...I asked Equibase, they said "yes, carryover should be included"...whatever that means, I don't care about shoulds, and suggested I check with Santa Anita. So I sent Santa Anita several questions, no response.

Here's something to chew on. If you treat the ML rank as the important factor for determining "difficultness" of a ticket, and multiply through the ranks of each horse and set it up against payouts, you see something like this:


971.2 12
4480.4 24
13589 168
73132.8 180
930365 648
0 1584
0 1980
0 3360
0 7168


0 means no one hit it that day. if you want to hit a big ticket, it probably pays to do a little analysis on your tickets to see just how interesting the combos really are.

[jotb]

Explain this one. Yesterday I played the GG pk6 for fun on tvgfree.net which I hit for $51K play money. In the last leg I had the only 3 horses that were paying out on 6 of 6. The 1,2,and 6. What doesnt make sense is the 2 won and paid $51k. If the 6 won it was paying $41K. Huh? That's impossible as this reported pool was only $42K so the 6 couldnt possibly pay to 2 tickets. Whoever had the 6 or 2 had to be one ticket. Yet it was like the ticket with the 6 was being penalized.I think the real payout on the 2 had to be the same as the 6 ($42k). Youbet was reporting it as $51k for the 2 and $41k for the 6 but I think they were doing it for a reason rather than an error. TVG did put $51k of play money into my play account. What I dont understand is why it was made to be reported that way. I'm sure whover hit it for real only got $42K.

Nice hit with play money but you had to be kind of upset that it wasn't for real money. Right?