PDA

View Full Version : Student of human moves. Trainer or jockey 'tells'


Imriledup
02-19-2009, 09:47 PM
Do we think there's anyone out there who is at the paddock every day at his or her hometown racetrack and makes detailed notes on trainers and or jockey's 'tells'? There are probably a bunch of really talented poker players who are really good at 'reading' the human connections in the paddock. I know some people like to bet on a trainers horse if he's wearing a suit (for the winners circle picture) but i'm wondering if anyone goes deeper than this?

I remember back in the day some of my buddies would follow a certain trainers wife to the window and stand behind her and listen to the bets.

Any 'students of human moves' out there?

supercap
02-19-2009, 09:55 PM
Do we think there's anyone out there who is at the paddock every day at his or her hometown racetrack and makes detailed notes on trainers and or jockey's 'tells'? There are probably a bunch of really talented poker players who are really good at 'reading' the human connections in the paddock. I know some people like to bet on a trainers horse if he's wearing a suit (for the winners circle picture) but i'm wondering if anyone goes deeper than this?

I remember back in the day some of my buddies would follow a certain trainers wife to the window and stand behind her and listen to the bets.

Any 'students of human moves' out there?

Trainers think they are gonna win every time out! At least that is what they tell us as owners. I give them credit though they have excuses up the wazooo if they dont win.

GaryG
02-19-2009, 09:58 PM
Trainers think they are gonna win every time out! At least that is what they tell us as owners. I give them credit though they have excuses up the wazooo if they dont win.From my experience trainers look at their horses the way fathers look at their sons playing in Little League. Better to spend your time learning the game. Horses are a long way from poker.

BELMONT 6-6-09
02-19-2009, 10:02 PM
Joe Tachach wrote about these trainer nuances on his web site under predatory handicapping.


http://joe-tachach.com

BELMONT 6-6-09
02-19-2009, 10:04 PM
sorry correction

http://www.joe-takach.com

tholl
02-19-2009, 10:17 PM
Trainers think they are gonna win every time out! At least that is what they tell us as owners. I give them credit though they have excuses up the wazooo if they dont win.


If you've been in and around horseraceing as you try to lead everyone here to believe you wouuld know that statement is total BS

the little guy
02-19-2009, 10:20 PM
If you've been in and around horseraceing as you try to lead everyone here to believe you wouuld know that statement is total BS


No, it's not even close to total BS. What it is is an intentional exageration of something that is basically true. In every race there are at least a handful of trainers that think they are going to win.

tholl
02-19-2009, 10:48 PM
No, it's not even close to total BS. What it is is an intentional exageration of something that is basically true. In every race there are at least a handful of trainers that think they are going to win.

Okay, not total BS, it's an exaggeration of maybe 300%.

DanG
02-19-2009, 11:39 PM
Doesn’t prove anything one way or another; but it reminds me of one of someone.

Our family’s first restaurant in Margate Florida had a chef who loved horseracing. We went to Calder many times with him and the first time he told us of a “tell” at Calder on Fred Warren. “Every time Fred where’s a suit he’s going for the money.”

Bless Al; I love the guy, but if he was any higher then a .15 cent ROI with that information I would be surprised.

PS: I wonder if Karl ever heard of the Men’s Warehouse / Freddy Warren angle?

jballscalls
02-19-2009, 11:49 PM
Junior Coffey who trains at Emerald Downs won an NFL Championship with the Packers, and when he has that Championship Ring on in the paddock, go to the window, cause Junior is getting his picture taken!!

juanepstein
02-20-2009, 12:58 AM
usually if the trainers wife is dolled up then theres a chance.

but telling the physical condition of the horse is your best chance.

slewis
02-20-2009, 01:57 AM
No, it's not even close to total BS. What it is is an intentional exageration of something that is basically true. In every race there are at least a handful of trainers that think they are going to win.

You are 100% correct....... I dont even want to hear their bull shit before a race. I'm more interested if they tell me this horse ain't right....

BeatTheChalk
02-20-2009, 02:01 AM
Do we think there's anyone out there who is at the paddock every day at his or her hometown racetrack and makes detailed notes on trainers and or jockey's 'tells'? There are probably a bunch of really talented poker players who are really good at 'reading' the human connections in the paddock. I know some people like to bet on a trainers horse if he's wearing a suit (for the winners circle picture) but i'm wondering if anyone goes deeper than this?

I remember back in the day some of my buddies would follow a certain trainers wife to the window and stand behind her and listen to the bets.

Any 'students of human moves' out there?

First hand knowledge of brother Jack Van Berg. In the glory days..
Alysheba et al .. I had the chance to meet him. He was training a
horse called " Din's Dancer." My friend's kids owned the horse .

At any rate .. when Jack wore a coat and tie .. he was ..absolutely
positively ready to get his picture taken. OH ok ..One time Jack wore
a coat and tie .. and knew he was NOT gonna win. ..

That would be the Kentucky Derby -- when the Dancer ran and did
not win ( duh ) Here is his pedigree for those who follow such things
http://www.pedigreequery.com/dins+dancer

supercap
02-20-2009, 02:16 PM
If you've been in and around horseraceing as you try to lead everyone here to believe you wouuld know that statement is total BS
I really could care less what you believe !. And for you not to know trainers believe they are going to win everytime ,just shows how ignorant you are to the game. Is owning a horse that big a deal to you? Sorry for hitting a sore note , keep saving your sheckles maybe one day you to can own a horse !!!

rjorio
02-20-2009, 02:36 PM
I had a friend , who owned pieces of several horses in NY, who only half kiddingly told me his trainer treated him like a mushroom,fed him manure and always kept him in the dark.

ralph_the_cat
02-20-2009, 04:42 PM
I have lots of mental notes on trainers at my local track... the big one I've picked up on is conversation from trainer to jockey... especially after getting burned a couple times because I thought a lengthy conversation meant they had it figured out... and a few races later, the same jockey trainer didnt say but two words... there was nothing to worry about, there was nothing to talk about, the horse was game... long conversations usually mean they are worried about something... I like that angle a lot... especially with first time starters or horse coming off a lay-off...


Use to always watch Dale Baird in the paddock, caught on that horses he didnt want claimed he would stay inside and get someone else to saddle, horses that were 6/5 and he wanted claimed, he would tend to show up in the paddock all smiles, easy to think, hes happy, he thinks hes gonna win, mean while its, the horse is sore and out of conditions, I hope they're buying him off me... its not even close to being accurate, but I've got good reads on a few of them in certain situations...

tholl
02-20-2009, 05:12 PM
I really could care less what you believe !. And for you not to know trainers believe they are going to win everytime ,just shows how ignorant you are to the game. Is owning a horse that big a deal to you? Sorry for hitting a sore note , keep saving your sheckles maybe one day you to can own a horse !!!


I've owned several horses, know many trainers. By you saying that all trainers believe that they are going to win everytime makes them all out to be idiots. Just not true.

supercap
02-20-2009, 05:37 PM
I've owned several horses, know many trainers. By you saying that all trainers believe that they are going to win everytime makes them all out to be idiots. Just not true.
So it is ok for you, the big horse owner to tell everyone you own horses , but god forbid someone else implies they own horses you jump down there throat? I think you are an idiot for keeping trainers who dont believe they are gonna win everytime they send one over.

Grits
02-20-2009, 06:55 PM
Watching humans as opposed to their horses would, in all liklehood, not prove profitable--certainly not over time. A foolish proposition. Besides, trainers often only put a jacket on these days on stakes days. And not all trainers then.

cnollfan
02-20-2009, 07:13 PM
I think this might be a valid handicapping concept. I suspect to make it work right it might involve a more sophisticated interpretation of posture etc. rather than just who has a jacket on or not.

Steve 'StatMan'
02-20-2009, 07:31 PM
Some dressed up trainers might just be dining with an owner or potential client that day in the Turf Club. Though the though of the angle intrigued me a long time ago, but the Turf Club argument talked me out of researching it.

GaryG
02-20-2009, 09:12 PM
Some dressed up trainers might just be dining with an owner or potential client that day in the Turf Club.It's one thing to lose money on your own figures but can you imagine losing a bet because the trainer had a hot date?

LIH
02-21-2009, 09:45 PM
So it is ok for you, the big horse owner to tell everyone you own horses , but god forbid someone else implies they own horses you jump down there throat? I think you are an idiot for keeping trainers who dont believe they are gonna win everytime they send one over.

Hey PaceA,

How come he gets to call someone an idiot?

just wondering..

LIH

Imriledup
02-21-2009, 10:05 PM
Watching humans as opposed to their horses would, in all liklehood, not prove profitable--certainly not over time. A foolish proposition. Besides, trainers often only put a jacket on these days on stakes days. And not all trainers then.

So you would suggest to the top poker pros in the world to NOT try and read their opponents and just stick to playing the cards?

the little guy
02-21-2009, 10:09 PM
So you would suggest to the top poker pros in the world to NOT try and read their opponents and just stick to playing the cards?


Congratulations.....that may have been the worst analogy ever.

Grits
02-21-2009, 10:42 PM
Congratulations.....that may have been the worst analogy ever.

Truly, beyond all doubt.

PaceAdvantage
02-21-2009, 10:59 PM
Hey PaceA,

How come he gets to call someone an idiot?

just wondering..

LIHBecause he paid me $1.

supercap
02-21-2009, 11:04 PM
Hey PaceA,

How come he gets to call someone an idiot?

just wondering..

LIH
Good Lord ,fight your own battles!

PaceAdvantage
02-21-2009, 11:05 PM
BTW supercap, don't call people idiots.


Thanks.

supercap
02-21-2009, 11:10 PM
ok

Grits
02-21-2009, 11:15 PM
Riledup, I don't mean to come off snipping, but the reason this is not a good analogy, particularly for me at least, is due to the fact that I've never played a game of poker in my life. I wouldn't know a pro from a newbie, sunglasses, hat on, nerves of steel . . . or whatever. A poker player has the ability to control his emotions, his movements, etc. Horses not so much so. Certainly not as well as us humans.

Years ago, Mark Cramer wrote of a groom who was excellent at it at Hollywood or Santa Anita; he did everything he could to keep the guy from going back to Mexico. Andy Beyer, also years ago, wrote of a gentleman, I believe, Clem was his name, another who had an extraordinary eye for the "fit" horse.

Its rare that one is so skilled as he or she is able to bet on horses according to their eye.

So you would suggest to the top poker pros in the world to NOT try and read their opponents and just stick to playing the cards?

LIH
02-21-2009, 11:21 PM
Good Lord ,fight your own battles!

Supercap,

Sorry, I was trying to make PA laugh.
Didn't mean to upset you,
my apologies,
LIH

supercap
02-21-2009, 11:27 PM
Supercap,

Sorry, I was trying to make PA laugh.
Didn't mean to upset you,
my apologies,
LIH
I am not upset, just having fun! but thanks anyway.

Imriledup
02-22-2009, 04:23 AM
Congratulations.....that may have been the worst analogy ever.

Its not an analogy, its a question. I wanted to know if he would recommend top poker pros to forget all they know about human moves and just concentrate on the cards. A simple yes or no would suffice.

GaryG
02-22-2009, 09:24 AM
Grits, Andy was talking about Clem Florio in Maryland. This is an excellent point....concentrate on what the horses are trying to tell you.