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lamboguy
02-19-2009, 04:49 PM
this one just entered the party. i like old fashioned but this one was impressive in an allowance race today in gulfstream. the rider came all the way from california to ride him too.

FlyinLate
02-19-2009, 04:54 PM
I have to say I was impressed. Faced a talented crew here while enduring the worst trip of the group to open up by five lengths. I doubted this horse after the pace he had to run into during his maiden victory, my doubts have been lifted.

SmartyJ
02-19-2009, 05:03 PM
Been a fan of Dunkirk since he broke his maiden. Horse might be for real.
Florida Derby next for him? Or one more prep?

OTM Al
02-19-2009, 05:08 PM
I look forward to seeing a replay of this race. What he has done in his 2 races is, if descriptions bear out, more impressive to me than what a horse like Imperial Council has done in terms of aiming at classic distance races. However, I can't get excited about a horse until he's done something in a legitimate stakes, at least Derby wise. With $0 in stakes earnings, he has a long way to go yet and has no margin for error. Looks like a good shot come Belmont time though, doesn't he.

SmartyJ
02-19-2009, 05:20 PM
I look forward to seeing a replay of this race. What he has done in his 2 races is, if descriptions bear out, more impressive to me than what a horse like Imperial Council has done in terms of aiming at classic distance races. However, I can't get excited about a horse until he's done something in a legitimate stakes, at least Derby wise. With $0 in stakes earnings, he has a long way to go yet and has no margin for error. Looks like a good shot come Belmont time though, doesn't he.


He is farther ahead than Big Brown was at this time last year. ;)

bobphilo
02-19-2009, 05:33 PM
When I saw Dunkirk carried 7-wide into that 1st turn I said that he would either fold like a cheap suit or was some kind of racehorse if he could still win or even place.

Just to makes things even more interesting, he went into the 2nd turn 4-wide, though by then, one could see by the way he was moving that he had this race. He had enough left in the tank to not just win, but also win by several lengths going away. Make no mistake, though billed as an allowance this was a strong stakes level field.

Easy trivia question. What other terrific grey won his Derby preps despite giving up tons of ground to his rivals by taking the overland route? No, I am not comparing the 2 at this early stage.


Bob

DanG
02-19-2009, 05:40 PM
Save time and give him the Florida Derby Trophy now. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

SmartyJ
02-19-2009, 06:04 PM
Anyone know where I can watch this race at?

bobphilo
02-19-2009, 07:15 PM
Anyone know where I can watch this race at?

If you have an on-line account, like Twin Spires, it should be in their video library. You can also try RaceReplays.com - I think that's the website.

I checked You-Tube and so far they just have his maiden race win. Remarkably similar in that he again has such a wide trip, except in today's win he's wide on both turns - doubly impressive.

http://tinyurl.com/atn545

I'm sure todays race will be up there soon also.

Bob

OTM Al
02-19-2009, 07:26 PM
He is farther ahead than Big Brown was at this time last year. ;)

Don't discount the fact that Big Brown did race at 2. This year is also shaking out to be a lot more competative than last year, which is a great thing.

sandpit
02-19-2009, 07:35 PM
The preliminary Beyer is a 98...

Wickel
02-19-2009, 07:37 PM
Absolutely awesome! His maiden win was breathtaking, and today's runaway was even more impressive, considering the extremely wide trip on the first turn.

onefast99
02-19-2009, 08:27 PM
3.7m and it looks like they finally spent their money on a contender. Dunkirk went 9 wide stoped for a quick pull of the slots and was off to the winners circle.

SmartyJ
02-19-2009, 08:27 PM
Don't discount the fact that Big Brown did race at 2. This year is also shaking out to be a lot more competative than last year, which is a great thing.



And Big Brown laughed at the field in both the Derby and Preakness. Lot of time left though.

W2G
02-19-2009, 08:27 PM
Simply put, that was big time. This grey just might make everyone forget about that other grey in Hot Springs.

With any luck this TC season will shape up to be at the very least compelling and maybe even historic. We could see unusually talented runners emerge from all corners -- AR, FL, LA, CA, NY, even KY, and all converge on Louisville. Yeah, I'm an optimist, but that would be something.

DanG
02-20-2009, 07:45 AM
For those who missed “Dunkirk’s” two impressive races so far; thanks to (airzero23 and partymatters) on Youtube for posting them. (BTW: The video capture changes speed according to the person who posted his allowance win / if someone has a real-time version; please post.)

qmMf38Dc3t0

0QdCb7C5JTU

BTW: BigMack; I haven’t given up on the YouTube ‘posting instructions you generously offered. I copied them, but don’t have the time this morning to figure them out yet. :blush:

boomman
02-20-2009, 09:07 AM
Simply put, that was big time. This grey just might make everyone forget about that other grey in Hot Springs.

With any luck this TC season will shape up to be at the very least compelling and maybe even historic. We could see unusually talented runners emerge from all corners -- AR, FL, LA, CA, NY, even KY, and all converge on Louisville. Yeah, I'm an optimist, but that would be something.

Dunkirk was very impressive for sure and that "other" horse benefitted from a HUGE speed bias, so his overall ability to get the distance or be competitive on Derby Day is somewhat questionable..........

Boomer

OTM Al
02-20-2009, 09:31 AM
Dunkirk was very impressive for sure and that "other" horse benefitted from a HUGE speed bias, so his overall ability to get the distance or be competitive on Derby Day is somewhat questionable..........

Boomer

The comments here and in some press about Old Fashioned are bringing 2004 to mind when everyone said another horse down in Arkansas couldn't "get the distance" either. As soon as he did, all we saw was articles on how many Derby winners were in his pedigree. Don't know if Old Fashioned is as good as Smarty yet, and I would be inclined to say not, though OF stands now exactly where Smarty did then and with a slightly more impressive record behind him. And lest we forget, OF has already won a G2 at 9f with a higher BSF than Dunkirk just got in a NW1X.....Too many flavors of the month this time of year, though I do hope Dunkirk can become a major competitor. The more there are, the better it will be all around. Just think 2007 vs 2008.

onefast99
02-20-2009, 09:45 AM
The comments here and in some press about Old Fashioned are bringing 2004 to mind when everyone said another horse down in Arkansas couldn't "get the distance" either. As soon as he did, all we saw was articles on how many Derby winners were in his pedigree. Don't know if Old Fashioned is as good as Smarty yet, and I would be inclined to say not, though OF stands now exactly where Smarty did then and with a slightly more impressive record behind him. And lest we forget, OF has already won a G2 at 9f with a higher BSF than Dunkirk just got in a NW1X.....Too many flavors of the month this time of year, though I do hope Dunkirk can become a major competitor. The more there are, the better it will be all around. Just think 2007 vs 2008.
Should make for an interesting rest of the way, maybe this will give horse racing the shot in the arm it needs. Until May there are no other big sporting events to follow. Baseball will have its who used the roids issue right thru the World Series and Pro hockey and basketball do not take away many of the horseplayers. March madness will get its due but right after that it's a paved highway to several key races for the contenders until that 1st Saturday in May.

point given
02-20-2009, 10:53 AM
for Dunkirk. If you choose the florida derby, it is a one shot deal as there is not enough time before the derby to run again, if you go in the Tampa Derby, I think you get 2 shots or NY Gotham and Wood. Pretty tricky if he goes the Fl Derby and gets post 12 or something . OTOH , you know he likes the track.

Watcher
02-20-2009, 12:07 PM
I think you take a shot at the Florida Derby on the track he already likes.

point given
02-20-2009, 12:27 PM
I think you take a shot at the Florida Derby on the track he already likes.


Pletcher now quoted Florida Derby as first choice too. :ThmbUp:

Zenyatta To Crush
02-20-2009, 06:09 PM
I have to admit, I was pretty impressed by Dunkirk's performance. One thing I almost forgot though is that final times mean basically nothing at Gulfstream. I have seen a lot of horses run big times, then come back to tank in their next. The time of 1:50.15, seems like an incredible time, considering the kind of trip Dunkirk got, but I wouldn't look too much into it.

Somehow, 48-1 longshot, Sincero got 3rd, only 6.5 lengths behind Dunkirk. He was the horse just inside of Dunkirk going around the first turn, but still pretty wide. Normally a horse like that would have faded badly down the stretch, but he somehow got 3rd. In Sincero's previous race, he finished 9 lengths behind a time of 1:38.37. I'm not saying Dunkirk isn't the star many people believe he is, but I think its a little suspicious that Sincero finished so close to what appears to be a fast time.

He will be overbet in the Florida Derby and I would look at his competition very closely before throwing your bankroll on him.

By the way, watch out for Theregoesjojo in the Fountain of Youth.

PaceAdvantage
02-20-2009, 07:25 PM
How to post YouTube videos....by Tom:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=568131&highlight=YouTube#post568131

DanG
02-20-2009, 08:22 PM
How to post YouTube videos....by Tom:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=568131&highlight=YouTube#post568131
Thanks Mike,

Between Mack, Tom and yourself it should only take 2,700 more posts to figure it out! :blush:

kroebuck67
02-21-2009, 10:27 AM
It's purely for selfish reasons (so I could see it live), but I wish Pletcher would buck tradition and ship Dunkirk to Arkansas, to take on Old Fashioned in the Rebel and/or AR Derby. Of course, that would likely take out the drama in the Big one (unless the proposed match turned out to be a head bobber), but as I said, it's purely for selfish reasons.

SmartyJ
02-21-2009, 10:52 AM
It's purely for selfish reasons (so I could see it live), but I wish Pletcher would buck tradition and ship Dunkirk to Arkansas, to take on Old Fashioned in the Rebel and/or AR Derby. Of course, that would likely take out the drama in the Big one (unless the proposed match turned out to be a head bobber), but as I said, it's purely for selfish reasons.


I am not positive on this, so maybe you could help me. But, does Dunkirk have to win a major 6 prep to make the starting gate of 20. Or would a 2nd place finish give him enough graded earnings?

boomman
02-21-2009, 11:02 AM
The comments here and in some press about Old Fashioned are bringing 2004 to mind when everyone said another horse down in Arkansas couldn't "get the distance" either. As soon as he did, all we saw was articles on how many Derby winners were in his pedigree. Don't know if Old Fashioned is as good as Smarty yet, and I would be inclined to say not, though OF stands now exactly where Smarty did then and with a slightly more impressive record behind him. And lest we forget, OF has already won a G2 at 9f with a higher BSF than Dunkirk just got in a NW1X.....Too many flavors of the month this time of year, though I do hope Dunkirk can become a major competitor. The more there are, the better it will be all around. Just think 2007 vs 2008.

Al: Don't get me wrong: I am not in any stretch of the imagination saying that Old Fashioned isn't a nice horse. I'm saying that the track was favoring speed that day for whatever reason and played right into his hands for an easy win while Dunkirk absolutely got the worst of everything and still won impressively. I am a HUGE Oaklawn fan (especially with the large fields this year) and that meet among just a few others is getting the lion's share of my play this winter.............:ThmbUp:

;) Boomer

DanG
02-21-2009, 11:05 AM
I am not positive on this, so maybe you could help me. But, does Dunkirk have to win a major 6 prep to make the starting gate of 20. Or would a 2nd place finish give him enough graded earnings?
It would be very tight if he ran 2nd in the Fla Derby. I think around 150k was the bubble last year (I could be wrong there).

This is pressure and will be dramatic to watch;

• He needs the easiest spot possible.
• With the maximum graded earnings possible.
• With ZERO margin for error.
• For high profile connections that spent a kings ransom for a Keeneland sales topper.

OTM Al
02-21-2009, 08:07 PM
Al: Don't get me wrong: I am not in any stretch of the imagination saying that Old Fashioned isn't a nice horse. I'm saying that the track was favoring speed that day for whatever reason and played right into his hands for an easy win while Dunkirk absolutely got the worst of everything and still won impressively. I am a HUGE Oaklawn fan (especially with the large fields this year) and that meet among just a few others is getting the lion's share of my play this winter.............:ThmbUp:

;) Boomer

Next race really tells the tale on him. A strong move forward should happen. Anything less (unless for cause ala Afleet Alex) and my faith will waiver. I should write up my picks tomorrow like I've done in the past. I miss doing that this year but been so darn busy. Dunkirk though has one and only one shot and that will Fla Deby day (and I will be there!). He's going to have to win as the second prize of $150,000 this year (remember the race has been devalued to $750,000) might not do it with the automatic entry from England plus a couple fillies that want in. The likes of Beethoven and West Side Bernie still around plus whatever comes out of the FoY a wide draw will be his death knell for the Derby. I'm starting to think the Belmont is going to be a stacked race this year with some of these late comers.

W2G
02-21-2009, 08:38 PM
It would be very tight if he ran 2nd in the Fla Derby. I think around 150k was the bubble last year (I could be wrong there).

This is pressure and will be dramatic to watch;

• He needs the easiest spot possible.
• With the maximum graded earnings possible.
• With ZERO margin for error.
• For high profile connections that spent a kings ransom for a Keeneland sales topper.

I think, but can't recall exactly, that the cutoff last year was a little north of 150k. Historically though the cutoff has been shy of 150k.

Dunkirk and Pletcher are in a tough spot. Simply a sensational Alw score and a big effort. Now another big effort is required just to make the Derby starting gate. And then Pletcher will have to have him primed for a monster effort in his very next start in the Derby. That's asking an awful lot. I respect Dunkirk immensely but should he make it to Louisville I'll have to let him beat me. If the Derby is not in the cards, what a lethal "new shooter" he could be in the Belmont.

OTM Al
02-21-2009, 10:41 PM
Expect it to go north again if a filly or 2 shows up and the free spot from England gets filled, and they do seem very excited about that one. Plus the Shiekhs will surely be sending at least 1 if not 2 of theirs back over. That then leaves 15 "traditional" spots a real possibility and a few of them are gone already.

DanG
02-21-2009, 11:25 PM
if a filly or 2 shows up
Along that train of thought Al…

"Rachel Alexandra" is a VERY nice filly. :ThmbUp:
http://z.about.com/d/horseracing/1/0/m/j/2/grod08-1a.jpg

Robert Fischer
02-21-2009, 11:43 PM
Somehow, 48-1 longshot, Sincero got 3rd, only 6.5 lengths behind Dunkirk. He was the horse just inside of Dunkirk going around the first turn, but still pretty wide. Normally a horse like that would have faded badly down the stretch, but he somehow got 3rd. In Sincero's previous race, he finished 9 lengths behind a time of 1:38.37. I'm not saying Dunkirk isn't the star many people believe he is, but I think its a little suspicious that Sincero finished so close to what appears to be a fast time.
Good observations.
Dunkirk IMO ran a Grade I 3yo Stakes level race. Sincero ran fairly well while never challenging, and after the 1st turn his trip was pretty good. They ran well, in spite of losing a lot of ground into the 1st turn, but I don't give them the "wow overcame the gulfstream 9f wide post bias" extra-credit.
With Prado's antics and Alma D'oro's dissapointing performance, Dunkirk and Sincero did not catch the worst of bias scenarios.
I think Dunkirk will win the Florida Derby with any kind of fair trip but I would prefer for him to draw way outside and be a heavy favorite.

Thomas Roulston
02-22-2009, 03:35 AM
Not that I'm superstitious or anything, but the other day I was watching this Perry Mason rerun in which someone's phone number was "DUnkirk 2-0799."

But hey, sometimes these things pan out: How about the Beam Me Up/Kaptain exacta in the 6th at Aqu on Friday?

SmartyJ
02-23-2009, 12:43 PM
Good article on Bloodhorse about Dunkirk...

WinterTriangle
02-24-2009, 03:47 AM
I think Dunkirk will win the Florida Derby with any kind of fair trip but I would prefer for him to draw way outside and be a heavy favorite.

lets see how he runs in the FOY on SAT. He's listed on the PPs as running.

rgustafson
02-24-2009, 08:47 AM
lets see how he runs in the FOY on SAT. He's listed on the PPs as running.

That aint gonna happen.

SmartyJ
02-24-2009, 11:50 AM
lets see how he runs in the FOY on SAT. He's listed on the PPs as running.


He's not running in the FOY. He is also nominated for the Lanes End at Turfway. He is going to the Florida Derby.

Jacimo
02-25-2009, 07:32 AM
Hello Zenyatta,

I've walked many miles to find another not jumping on the Dunkirk bandwagon.

The Dunkirk puzzle requires a little digging. Once your shovel is dirty it becomes apparent he's got a whole lot left to demonstrate.

Scores loved his wide move on February 19th. But there is no analysis regarding the possibility of path bias on that day. There is no analysis of what he beat. There is no comparison to company.

He's won a maiden race and a restricted allowance race (on the same track). None of his opponents had won more than a maiden. The hype is incredulous.

As strange as it seems, Its entirely possible that Dunkirk will go to the post on Florida Derby day as the favorite. I don't know which horse is going to win the Florida Derby. I don't even know which horse(s) I will back yet. But I do know a golden opportunity when I see one and I will be taking a substantial position Against Dunkirk.

p.s. (If you like Dunkirk, you'll have to love Big Drama)

I have to admit, I was pretty impressed by Dunkirk's performance. One thing I almost forgot though is that final times mean basically nothing at Gulfstream. I have seen a lot of horses run big times, then come back to tank in their next. The time of 1:50.15, seems like an incredible time, considering the kind of trip Dunkirk got, but I wouldn't look too much into it.

Somehow, 48-1 longshot, Sincero got 3rd, only 6.5 lengths behind Dunkirk. He was the horse just inside of Dunkirk going around the first turn, but still pretty wide. Normally a horse like that would have faded badly down the stretch, but he somehow got 3rd. In Sincero's previous race, he finished 9 lengths behind a time of 1:38.37. I'm not saying Dunkirk isn't the star many people believe he is, but I think its a little suspicious that Sincero finished so close to what appears to be a fast time.

He will be overbet in the Florida Derby and I would look at his competition very closely before throwing your bankroll on him.

By the way, watch out for Theregoesjojo in the Fountain of Youth.

DanG
02-25-2009, 09:31 AM
Scores loved his wide move on February 19th. But there is no analysis regarding the possibility of path bias on that day.

All fair points Jacimo; and in all probability he’s odds on in the Florida Derby so looking elsewhere just makes financial sense.

One thing I will say about his trip; I’ve seen basically every 9f dirt race at GP since they’ve renovated and I’ve never seen a horse that wide in 1st turn and win; much less dominate. To make it even more spectacular they weren’t walking into that corner which makes a world of difference in terms of centrifugal force etc.

BTW: Ragozin has the race a “0”; which is a monster for a Feb 3yo so you have the whole “bounce” discussion that starts so many bar fights. :D

Ill-bred
02-25-2009, 10:45 AM
p.s. (If you like Dunkirk, you'll have to love Big Drama)

I like Dunkirk, but I have no love for Big Drama. I wasn't aware of any connection between them (?)


http://blog-rtr.thoroughbredtimes.com/

whyhorseofcourse
02-25-2009, 10:56 AM
Wow I seen his maiden but not the allowance!
Just wow!
What a pretty horse.

Jacimo
02-25-2009, 09:30 PM
I like Dunkirk, but I have no love for Big Drama. I wasn't aware of any connection between them (?)


http://blog-rtr.thoroughbredtimes.com/

What connects Dunkirk to Big Drama is Sincero. Dunkirk beat Sincero by 6.5 lengths. Both Big Drama and Take the Points beat Sincero by 9 lengths.

Of course, Ragozin says Sincero ran faster Feb 19th, but I have good reason to believe he did not.

All fair points Jacimo; and in all probability he’s odds on in the Florida Derby so looking elsewhere just makes financial sense.

One thing I will say about his trip; I’ve seen basically every 9f dirt race at GP since they’ve renovated and I’ve never seen a horse that wide in 1st turn and win; much less dominate. To make it even more spectacular they weren’t walking into that corner which makes a world of difference in terms of centrifugal force etc.

BTW: Ragozin has the race a “0”; which is a monster for a Feb 3yo so you have the whole “bounce” discussion that starts so many bar fights.

I'm aware that Ragozin has the race Fast, but you must remember that wide paths off the rail are factored by Ragozin and Thorograph to reduce the number, or in other words wide paths make the figure faster. Let me ask you this question, "What is the accuracy of such a "wide reduced" figure when the Wide Path is in fact Not a negative? "

I'm quite certain that when the Florida Derby is over Ragozin and Jerry Brown will crow that they bet against Dunkirk and that he bounced. I will be betting against Dunkirk for far different reasons and because of that I will not fear a fast back figure and will bet with far more conviction.

Attached is the important chart. I'll let the readers determine why

Jacimo

.

DanG
02-25-2009, 10:02 PM
Let me ask you this question, "What is the accuracy of such a "wide reduced" figure when the Wide Path is in fact Not a negative? "
.
If you feel that trip was somehow positive because of some perceived 9-path bias; we are watching very different races. Nothing wrong with that btw and I respect your opinion.

I don’t get too caught up in the figures; I just threw the Rag’s # in there are a talking point and to show he will get bet heavily. If figures told the whole story the day Dunkirk got a ’78 Beyer and several races later "This Ones for Phil" received his ‘117 they would have stopped this fight.

I have a hunch at even odds / on a fair race track most players would bet their right lung on Dunkirk heads up; I know I would.

Ill-bred
02-26-2009, 03:11 PM
Jacimo-

Thanks for explaining.

I would argue that comparative beaten lengths are not always a great way of evaluating horses, since most horses don't fire the same effort everytime and rarely race under the same conditions twice. The Sincero that Big Drama beat at Calder back on Oct. 18 was making his second career start, first vs. winners, and steadied at the start. But your point is taken.

I share your opinion that sometimes the amount of ground loss built into a Ragozin or Thorograph figure can overstate a horse's speed/ability.

At least this TC is starting to get interesting. Pretty much every Saturday from here on out will have a major derby prep. Good luck.


http://blog-rtr.thoroughbredtimes.com/