Morning Line Handicappers

[InFront]

Do any tracks use an automated formula in creating the morning line for each horse in every race or does every track still employ a handicapper to use their own judgement and handicapping skills in trying to create the most accurate morning line they can develop? Meaning they may spend several hours each day to do the one racecard.

I'm curious on this since the morning line is such an influential factor on how the public wagers each race. Of course some tracks morning lines could be more accurate than others but I wonder how such a person even goes about creating one. It seems creating an odds line is not the same principal.

We as handicappers have a different goal. We simply try to handicap the races looking for just not winners but horses that will win at a higher rate than how the public wagers on them. All this leads towards overlays and profiits for us. While the morning line handicapper's sole purpose is not to pick winners but how the public may view the race and bet accordingly on each horse in each race. Of course this is a big difference on goals we each have.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Tracks can take a poll of players online the day prior and turn it into a morning line- could be automated that way, and maybe used as a "sales" gimmick.

[Robert Fischer]

I like having 1 human track handicapper per card.

It's hard enough finding the Underlays without having some computer or a consensus of handicappers alert the public that their popular horse isn't deserving of favorite status. ;)

[boomman]

I know of no plans in the racing industry to "automate" morning lines and would be disappointed if they attempted to do so.........As a former morning line maker I know how difficult it is to handicap the public, but there are some outstanding morning line makers out there including John (last name escapes me but the morning line maker @ Tampa) who does a fantastic job!

Boomer

[rokitman]

Do any tracks use an automated formula in creating the morning line for each horse in every race or does every track still employ a handicapper to use their own judgement and handicapping skills in trying to create the most accurate morning line they can develop? Meaning they may spend several hours each day to do the one racecard.

I'm curious on this since the morning line is such an influential factor on how the public wagers each race. Of course some tracks morning lines could be more accurate than others but I wonder how such a person even goes about creating one. It seems creating an odds line is not the same principal.

We as handicappers have a different goal. We simply try to handicap the races looking for just not winners but horses that will win at a higher rate than how the public wagers on them. All this leads towards overlays and profiits for us. While the morning line handicapper's sole purpose is not to pick winners but how the public may view the race and bet accordingly on each horse in each race. Of course this is a big difference on goals we each have.
Not accurate, honeybunch. Only the dumb are being influenced by the ML and they are not playing with much money and/or not playing for very long before they are spit back onto the lotto line.

If there is a 5/2 ML that is ranked 4th by my software, the betting odds will almost always follow the software, not the ML. One nitwit with a pencil doesn't have much to do with our ruthlessly efficient market. If it did, I'd be rich from horse racing a long time ago.

It's been a few years since I was paying attention but, the last I knew, the guy from Woodbine commonly had what was sure to be the betting favorite at ML's such as 10/1. At the time, I didn't know the tracks all provided their own ML's to DRF. I emailed DRF and asked them what insane asylum their linemaker from WO had escaped from. They informed me that the track provided it to them, as did all tracks. Oh, really? The original "bible" of handicapping info does not have their own linemakers, and publishes any ol' slop that's sent to them, huh? And why the hell is that, exactly? Such a high standard.

[strapper]

I don't think you'll ever see a track trusting a computer to make their morning line - at least I hope so since I make my living that way.

One of my pet peeves is finding my own track line absent from the DRF sometimes but it still says "track's morning line". I guess they have to go to press early but I wish they would re-label and admit it is one of their guys putting out the line. The other day they put 50-1 on a horse I had 6-1 (the horse went off 5 or 6 to 1); I disliked the horse and felt he had no shot but he was a big career winner of over $300,000 coming back after a multi-year layoff. The horse ran last.

[mountainman]

Tracks can take a poll of players online the day prior and turn it into a morning line- could be automated that way, and maybe used as a "sales" gimmick.
I like your outside-the-box thinking, but this idea would cost me one of my jobs.

[mountainman]

Do any tracks use an automated formula in creating the morning line for each horse in every race or does every track still employ a handicapper to use their own judgement and handicapping skills in trying to create the most accurate morning line they can develop? Meaning they may spend several hours each day to do the one racecard.

I'm curious on this since the morning line is such an influential factor on how the public wagers each race. Of course some tracks morning lines could be more accurate than others but I wonder how such a person even goes about creating one. It seems creating an odds line is not the same principal.

We as handicappers have a different goal. We simply try to handicap the races looking for just not winners but horses that will win at a higher rate than how the public wagers on them. All this leads towards overlays and profiits for us. While the morning line handicapper's sole purpose is not to pick winners but how the public may view the race and bet accordingly on each horse in each race. Of course this is a big difference on goals we each have.
Some linesmakers use a template and start by identifying the favorites. I construct my line in post position order and tinker until the numbers balance. I try to set my own handicapping approach aside and think like the public. In addition, I sometimes factor in barns that like to bet. An entire card takes about 45 minutes. I've learned from experience to wait until drf pps are available instead of proceeding with a skeletal racing office set. The surest way to make a bad line is to wing it without the beyer numbers, which unquestionably influence the tote more than any other factor (supertrainers and class included).

[ryesteve]

The surest way to make a bad line is to wing it without the beyer numbers, which unquestionably influence the tote more than any other factor (supertrainers and class included).What about the power numbers? My experience is that these influence the odds even more than speed figs do. Or are you just thinking in terms of single-item factors? (which the power rating obviously isn't)

[mountainman]

What about the power numbers? My experience is that these influence the odds even more than speed figs do. Or are you just thinking in terms of single-item factors? (which the power rating obviously isn't)

Regardless of what you or I might utilize when handicapping, no factor known to man moves the tote nearly as much as beyer's little black numbers. No pace or power rating, no rider, no supertrainer, and certainly no public prognosticator comes even close. Beyer's gravitational pull on the odds board is much stronger than brisnet's. It's like comparing the Sun to Pluto.

[ralph_the_cat]

Regardless of what you or I might utilize when handicapping, no factor known to man moves the tote nearly as much as beyer's little black numbers. No pace or power rating, no rider, no supertrainer, and certainly no public prognosticator comes even close.

Amen

[InFront]

Regardless of what you or I might utilize when handicapping, no factor known to man moves the tote nearly as much as beyer's little black numbers. No pace or power rating, no rider, no supertrainer, and certainly no public prognosticator comes even close.

I disagree. In my opinion no factor among the horses PP lines influences the public more on how they will eventually bet more than the morning line. Not speed or pace figures, not trainer or jockey stats, not even power numbers. The bottom line is regardless if you use or even look at the morning line within your own handicapping you best be aware of it all the time.

Yes power and speed numbers have some effect but they are only secondary to the morning line. This is based "overall" in the long run not just a specific race here or there. This is why I was asking do all tracks still employ one person to manually create the morning line for every race. When I'm talking about the ML I'm talking about the real ML that is found in the track program and data files. Not those that appear in the DRF. Where they get those lines who knows since they differ so much against the real MO which may be caused from being forced in creating them days earlier.

[hdcper]

Looking at all post time favorites in my 2008 database (29,883 post time favorites), the morning line favorite ended up being the post time favorite 20,178 times (67.52% of the time). And the morning line favorite was the best identifier of the actual post time favorite of all individual factors which supports In Front's opinion.

Now looking at the Bris Prime Power rank 1 horse in each race, 17,648 of them ended up the post time favorite (59.06% of the time).

However, one interesting factor is the morning line favorite only wins 36.95% of the time as the post time favorite and its ROI is the lowest of any individual factor in my database returning only 82.95% of the money wagered. Prime Power rank 1 won 38.11% as the post time favorite and returned 84.88%.

Just thought it was worth sharing,

Bill

[kenwoodallpromos]

I like your outside-the-box thinking, but this idea would cost me one of my jobs.
How long does it take you to handicap a card?
I have a sugestion for another job: set up a :Feature race longest shot" wager" with carryovers, where the carryover plus daily pool payoff is only made if the final tote longest shot wins the daily feature race.

[mountainman]

Looking at all post time favorites in my 2008 database (29,883 post time favorites), the morning line favorite ended up being the post time favorite 20,178 times (67.52% of the time). And the morning line favorite was the best identifier of the actual post time favorite of all individual factors which supports In Front's opinion.

Now looking at the Bris Prime Power rank 1 horse in each race, 17,648 of them ended up the post time favorite (59.06% of the time).

However, one interesting factor is the morning line favorite only wins 36.95% of the time as the post time favorite and its ROI is the lowest of any individual factor in my database returning only 82.95% of the money wagered. Prime Power rank 1 won 38.11% as the post time favorite and returned 84.88%.

Just thought it was worth sharing,

Bill

With all respect sir, you're confusing cause and effect. Horses don't go favored because the morning line predicts that they will, but rather, program favoritism is assigned to horses destined to go favored. Your post has the tail wagging the dog.

[ryesteve]

Regardless of what you or I might utilize when handicapping, no factor known to man moves the tote nearly as much as beyer's little black numbers. No pace or power rating, no rider, no supertrainer, and certainly no public prognosticator comes even close. Beyer's gravitational pull on the odds board is much stronger than brisnet's. It's like comparing the Sun to Pluto.I don't utilize the power rating when handicapping, except as an indicator that tells me which horses will be bet. If you run the numbers through a db, you'll find that the top power rating horses get bet down lower than the top speed fig horses, even when controlling for ML odds.

As to the subsequent posts pointing to ML as the #1 influencer, that logic is a little bit circular to me. Most people aren't betting the ML favorite because it's the ML favorite... they're betting it because of the factors that caused the linemaker to make it the ML favorite. If they just started assigning the ML randomly, you'd definitely see far less correspondence than you do now.

[hdcper]

Well Steve I would agree that the factors that cause the linemaker to make a horse the morning line favorite, certainly impact its likelihood to be the post time favorite. But as we all know, many of the general public playing the horses don't use a form, a computer program or anything more than a track program.

Thus, the morning line odds and the track selections listed at the bottom of the program do have an impact on the crowd. And this impact, does influence the post time favorite in many races.

Anyway, whatever factors effect the public the most in over betting certain horses, certainly aren't the way to profitability and thats a fact!!!

[JPinMaryland]

As to the subsequent posts pointing to ML as the #1 influencer, that logic is a little bit circular to me. Most people aren't betting the ML favorite because it's the ML favorite... they're betting it because of the factors that caused the linemaker to make it the ML favorite. If they just started assigning the ML randomly, you'd definitely see far less correspondence than you do now.

I dont think they said "influencer" or rather if they did they misspoke. The proper term to use would be "correlation." This is a statistical term that avoids getting into the cause and effect argument that you are making.

I dont think the more astute cappers here are trying to say ML is causing the horse to win or whatever. They are saying there is a correlation or a strong correlation between ROI and ML or winning and ML or whatever.

[mountainman]

I don't utilize the power rating when handicapping, except as an indicator that tells me which horses will be bet. If you run the numbers through a db, you'll find that the top power rating horses get bet down lower than the top speed fig horses, even when controlling for ML odds.

As to the subsequent posts pointing to ML as the #1 influencer, that logic is a little bit circular to me. Most people aren't betting the ML favorite because it's the ML favorite... they're betting it because of the factors that caused the linemaker to make it the ML favorite. If they just started assigning the ML randomly, you'd definitely see far less correspondence than you do now.
Good post. But power ratings aren't moving the tote much. They simply predict it by correlating with other factors that the public takes into account-beyer numbers no doubt included. Conversely, the beyers strongly INFLUENCE which horses get bet.

[ryesteve]

I dont think they said "influencer" or rather if they did they misspoke. The proper term to use would be "correlation." This is a statistical term that avoids getting into the cause and effect argument that you are making.Yes, but correlation without causation should be ignored, unless the causative factors are transparent, which in this case, they're not.

Thus, the morning line odds and the track selections listed at the bottom of the program do have an impact on the crowd.Yes, I would agree that ML favorites are overbet, especially in exotic pools. That's why I'm assuming that even with random MLs you'd see "less" correspondence, rather than "no" correspondence.

They simply predict it by correlating with other factors that the public takes into account-beyer numbers no doubt included. Yes, I'm sure speed figs are a major component... which is why my original thought was that you were only thinking in terms of "single factor" influencers, since comparing speed figs vs. a model containing speed figs and other strong factors, doesn't seem like a fair comparison.