The Bit
02-18-2009, 06:08 PM
I'm still alive but I'm without a shoe again. I couldn't find the board on Sunday. That made the decision to pick winners as oppose to longshots pretty easy. 174 of 2686 left. I've fallen to 33rd in the Challenge and 7th in the winners contest.
My picks for 2/18
R1 - #1 Sometimes Maple 10/1 ... #2 Consulate is the leading contest choice and the M/L favorite, with 49% selection rate which is a real headshaker to me. The #2 isn't a clear choice on class or speed, so other than the post, Dave Miller and some gate speed I'm not sure what the excitement is. #9 My Man Ben 7/2 outclasses these and is faster than this field if he is good. Big drop in class and some breaks was enough to lead me elsewhere. However, if he is sound, he probably wins. #1 Sometimes Maple will be a good price, is dropping in class, doesn't break and is as fast as anyone in here other than the #9. The pole should keep her close and I think she'll trot by atleast a few of these.
R7 - #6 Artic Stretch 7/2 ... #8 Major Hottie is the leading contest choice and M/L favorite but I'm not a huge fan of useful horses from small barns going in for a tag the first time. Couple that with the three week break and I'd rather run off the board with someone else. I will say, usually when Capone moves one in class, up or down, they are live. I chose #6 Artic Stretch while holding my breath. I could see this horse regressing off his last effort, which was sharp. He goes 2nd time lasix and has enough gate speed to give Miller options. Both Warhol and Crystal Guy are sharp right now and this guy was within shouting distance of those two last week.
R9 - #3 Classic Star 3/1 ... Classic Star is the M/L choice but #4 Get That Cheese is the contest choice. I'm hoping Classic Star gets a stalking trip because if she can run back to her effort on 2/6 she should win this. I'm hoping her last effort was dull because she found herself on the lead.
My picks for 2/18
R1 - #1 Sometimes Maple 10/1 ... #2 Consulate is the leading contest choice and the M/L favorite, with 49% selection rate which is a real headshaker to me. The #2 isn't a clear choice on class or speed, so other than the post, Dave Miller and some gate speed I'm not sure what the excitement is. #9 My Man Ben 7/2 outclasses these and is faster than this field if he is good. Big drop in class and some breaks was enough to lead me elsewhere. However, if he is sound, he probably wins. #1 Sometimes Maple will be a good price, is dropping in class, doesn't break and is as fast as anyone in here other than the #9. The pole should keep her close and I think she'll trot by atleast a few of these.
R7 - #6 Artic Stretch 7/2 ... #8 Major Hottie is the leading contest choice and M/L favorite but I'm not a huge fan of useful horses from small barns going in for a tag the first time. Couple that with the three week break and I'd rather run off the board with someone else. I will say, usually when Capone moves one in class, up or down, they are live. I chose #6 Artic Stretch while holding my breath. I could see this horse regressing off his last effort, which was sharp. He goes 2nd time lasix and has enough gate speed to give Miller options. Both Warhol and Crystal Guy are sharp right now and this guy was within shouting distance of those two last week.
R9 - #3 Classic Star 3/1 ... Classic Star is the M/L choice but #4 Get That Cheese is the contest choice. I'm hoping Classic Star gets a stalking trip because if she can run back to her effort on 2/6 she should win this. I'm hoping her last effort was dull because she found herself on the lead.