Biggest Losing Streak

[Conquer]

What was your biggest documented losing streak?

Lets say you had a years worth of data and found that your longest average losing streak was 7 in a row, would it be safe to say that through proper money management you could be very well off?

In other words, lets say you do your handicapping and then apply it without putting any money down, yet. You wait until you lose 4-5 in a row on paper and then start betting.

Would that work?

[ryesteve]

In other words, lets say you do your handicapping and then apply it without putting any money down, yet. You wait until you lose 4-5 in a row on paper and then start betting.

Would that work?
No, no, no, no, no...

[JustRalph]

read up on the old Coin Flip odds...........same principle

[badcompany]

What was your biggest documented losing streak?



Twenty five years and counting:( :( :(

[cnollfan]

Many hedge funds lost billions of dollars by using models that plugged in a few decades worth of data. After their bath, they concluded that last year's financial meltdown was a one-in-1,000 year event, which I doubt that it was.

The point being, it's irrelevant that your longest losing streak last year was seven. All you can do to maximize your chances of winning is to make more good bets and fewer bad bets.

[Conquer]

:( its just never seizes to amaze me.


There ARE winners at this game damnit, and we must stay positive.

Heres a new question, do you treat playing picks as a Smash and Grab job, one time big money that lasts a month if you win, or do you bet small calculated plays that you have to consistently win?

[JustRalph]

:( its just never seizes to amaze me.
:lol: :lol:

[Bubba X]

:( its just never seizes to amaze me.


There ARE winners at this game damnit, and we must stay positive.

Heres a new question, do you treat playing picks as a Smash and Grab job, one time big money that lasts a month if you win, or do you bet small calculated plays that you have to consistently win?
c. large, calculated plays I have to consistently win.

[DeanT]

Twenty five years and counting:( :( :(
:D I was going to say all of 2007 for me :)

I dont know my longest, but I had a nice one late last year. I bet win only, and I lost 24 in a row and 11 or 12 of them came second, about five by a head or less. When you are handicapping well (some of them were over 10-1) and lose your shirt, you start questioning whether Pittsburgh Phil from high up in the sky is having a little fun with you.

[CincyHorseplayer]

2 for 28.Fall 2002.

[kitts]

OK, 31 losing bets in a row at DMR. My pals would greet me at the track and ask who did I like and make an elaborate show of scratching that horse off their program. The interesting part is I finally had a winner in a grass race. Pincay's horse, not the favorite, cut over to the rail shortly after the start and the closer Itsallgreektome caught the place. Stewards inquiry and my horse was DQ'd and I had him on top of "greek" one way 30 times! I did cash a saver on Greek who DQ's into the win. The trainer of the winning horse appealed the decision to the powers that be and they reversed the decision months later. Del Mar did not write to me offering any compensation

[dav4463]

Favorites rarely fail to place five times in a row.

So it is simple. Bet the favorite to place at any track where the favorite has failed to place in three consecutive races. Play the fourth race, if he doesn't place, double up and play the fifth race.

Stop when you win one race at each track.



sounds simple. sounds logical.


Try it and watch the favorite fail to place five times in a row every time you try this for some reason! :confused: :D

The racing gods know what you are doing, so they will screw with you! :D

[raybo]

I play superfectas exclusively and my longest losing streak was 54. I still had an ROI of 1.46 that year.

There are no gimmics to this game. Work hard, determine your strengths, play only to your strengths, and go for value per $1 invested. That's the name of the game. This game is not like slots, where the machine will payout at a certain percentage and allow you to sit and watch as someone else has a long losing streak and then leaves the machine for you to invest a small amount and garner the payouts he left for you.

The odds in this game are not set, you must play to your strengths and if your handicapping/wagering process is sound, you will be successful, otherwise, you will be just another long term loser.

[green80]

I doesn't matter if you lost 100 in a row, If you calculate the next horse's odds to win are 1 in 4, and your oddline is correct, he still has a 1 in 4 chance to win. Each race is independent, your past wagers have nothing to do with it.

[headhawg]

There ARE winners at this game damnit, and we must stay positive.Easier said than done. The winners have two things that losers don't: One, a large enough bankroll dedicated to the horses (and not to the mortgage) to survive long losing streaks. In other words, no scared money.

And two, the winners have the psychological make-up to keep confident in their abilities even when it feels like they can't get a winner of a one-horse race.

The former is decidedly easier to have than the latter.

[RonTiller]

Favorites rarely fail to place five times in a row.
So it is simple. Bet the favorite to place at any track where the favorite has failed to place in three consecutive races. Play the fourth race, if he doesn't place, double up and play the fifth race.
The difference is between:

1. The probability of 5 losing favorites in a row is .67 X .67 X .67 X .67 X .67
2. The probability of 5 losing favorites in a row, given that 4 have already lost, is .67

Most people on this board understand this, but I actually ran the real empirical results for somebody who did not believe the mathematics. I believe a system seller convinced him with something like the new science of fractal analytic recursive probability pattern sequencing theory (yea, you have to have fractals involved somehow).

Here are the actual favorite win %s, for the next race, from races actually run, given that the favorite lost the previous X races:


Fav lost 1st race In 2nd race, Fav wins 34%
Fav lost 1st 2 races In 3rd race, Fav wins 34%
Fav lost 1st 3 races In 4th race, Fav wins 33%
Fav lost 1st 4 races In 5th race, Fav wins 31%
Fav lost 1st 5 races In 6th race, Fav wins 33%
Fav lost 1st 6 races In 7th race, Fav wins 31%
Fav lost 1st 7 races In 8th race, Fav wins 32%
Fav lost 1st 8 races In 9th race, Fav wins 32%
Fav lost 1st 9 races In 10th race, Fav wins 31%

If only losing streaks could be made to work for us!

Ron Tiller
HDW

[BillW]

the new science of fractal analytic recursive probability pattern sequencing theory


Damn, I'm going to have to remember that! that sounds more powerful than a SWAG! :lol:

[whyhorseofcourse]

This year on my ADW I have hit 3 out of 54 pick 4s. I consider this a slump.
One paid $7560, one paid $662, and the other paid $1100ish??.

Its a slump but showing a very high ROI and very profitable 09 for other exotics as well.

[raybo]

This year on my ADW I have hit 3 out of 54 pick 4s. I consider this a slump.
One paid $7560, one paid $662, and the other paid $1100ish??.

Its a slump but showing a very high ROI and very profitable 09 for other exotics as well.

Shhhhhhhhhh!!!! :ThmbUp:

[Canadian]

I find it does. If I lose so many in a row, I get really rattled and then the trouble begins.

[Conquer]

The difference is between:

1. The probability of 5 losing favorites in a row is .67 X .67 X .67 X .67 X .67
2. The probability of 5 losing favorites in a row, given that 4 have already lost, is .67

Most people on this board understand this, but I actually ran the real empirical results for somebody who did not believe the mathematics. I believe a system seller convinced him with something like the new science of fractal analytic recursive probability pattern sequencing theory (yea, you have to have fractals involved somehow).

Here are the actual favorite win %s, for the next race, from races actually run, given that the favorite lost the previous X races:


Fav lost 1st race In 2nd race, Fav wins 34%
Fav lost 1st 2 races In 3rd race, Fav wins 34%
Fav lost 1st 3 races In 4th race, Fav wins 33%
Fav lost 1st 4 races In 5th race, Fav wins 31%
Fav lost 1st 5 races In 6th race, Fav wins 33%
Fav lost 1st 6 races In 7th race, Fav wins 31%
Fav lost 1st 7 races In 8th race, Fav wins 32%
Fav lost 1st 8 races In 9th race, Fav wins 32%
Fav lost 1st 9 races In 10th race, Fav wins 31%

If only losing streaks could be made to work for us!

Ron Tiller
HDW

So basically the more losses the more to come?

[cmoore]

This year on my ADW I have hit 3 out of 54 pick 4s. I consider this a slump.
One paid $7560, one paid $662, and the other paid $1100ish??.

Its a slump but showing a very high ROI and very profitable 09 for other exotics as well.

Congrats on the positive roi...But I have to ask..Where was $7560 hit in the 54 pick 4's? It seems it's always easier when a bettor hits early and is playing with profits.

[BillW]

So basically the more losses the more to come?

I think he's saying that the size of the losing streak has no impact on the winner of the next race.

[ryesteve]

I think he's saying that the size of the losing streak has no impact on the winner of the next race.Actually, I see a downward trend there. Given that Ron has massive amounts of data at his disposal, the difference between 34% and 31% is likely significant.

These results do make sense... if the favorite loses 9 races in a row, there's a better than average chance that the track you're looking at has a favorite w% that is below the norm, hence the 10th race's favorite w% would also be below the norm.

[whyhorseofcourse]

Congrats on the positive roi...But I have to ask..Where was $7560 hit in the 54 pick 4's? It seems it's always easier when a bettor hits early and is playing with profits.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53806&highlight=northfield

The sixth of Jan.

It was actually $7539 BTW.

It was right at the start of the month/year.

I paid some bills with the winnings and gave my father almost half of it(after taxes) because he was with me and he is my partner in crime when it comes to gambling.

Even after all of that still showing a positive ROI with out that hit.

[cmoore]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53806&highlight=northfield

The sixth of Jan.

It was actually $7539 BTW.

It was right at the start of the month/year.

I paid some bills with the winnings and gave my father almost half of it(after taxes) because he was with me and he is my partner in crime when it comes to gambling.

Even after all of that still showing a positive ROI with out that hit.

I'm only a half hour from northfield...Haven't been there in a couple of years. Maybe we'll meet up there one of these days..

[RonTiller]

I think he's saying that the size of the losing streak has no impact on the winner of the next race.
Exactly. They are independent events (well, technically, they may not be - I'll explain momentarily). Even though the probability of 9 losing favorites in a row is small, if I'm standing in line ready to bet the 9th race after 8 favorites have already lost, the probability of having 9 losing favorites is around .69. Its the "after 8 favorites have already lost" that changes everything.

There does seem to be a slight downward trend and the sample sizes are indeed large. I smell a new fractal analytic recursive probability pattern sequencing theory system in the making!

Technically, these may not be strictly independent events, since it is entirely possible that after 8 losing favorites, everybody at the track says SCREW THIS, I'm betting illogical horses, since logical ones are losing. This could very well cause different horses to be favorites, which could affect win percentages.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[ryesteve]

Technically, these may not be strictly independent events, since it is entirely possible that after 8 losing favorites, everybody at the track says SCREW THIS, I'm betting illogical horses, since logical ones are losing. This could very well cause different horses to be favorites, which could affect win percentages.Perhaps, but I'd still lean towards my theory. One way to test yours would be to see what the favorites' ROI is after many consective losses. If you are correct that in some cases the "wrong" horse is being made the favorite (ie overbet), the ROI would be noticeably lower.