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dav4463
04-12-2003, 03:22 AM
Can track touts really influence the odds? Not that long ago when Beyer speed ratings were added to the Form, the value on them went way down. Do you think it is possible today with all the various handicapping materials that are now available for any single selector or computer program to influence the odds in a similar way as the Beyers were able to do? Today you can choose from a large variety of computer programs or follow the picks of a number of qualified selector services. Are there enough varied opinions out there to keep any one of them from greatly influencing the odds? Or, if someone truly comes up with a profitable angle not known by many.....should he still keep his mouth shut or offer it to the masses? I don't have one, but I'm always looking anyway !

JustRalph
04-12-2003, 05:35 AM
When I used to play Sam Houston I swear the Purple power sheet picks would always get late money. Purple....can you fill us in on this theory.....?

syyamo
04-12-2003, 12:41 PM
It's not only limited to touts. We have a local sport talk host in town who runs a stable. Jim Rome's clones have nothing on this guys followers. They repeatedly hammer the horses regardless of the horses form, condition of the race, etc.

Couple days ago they pounded one of the runners to the tune of 1-2 at the opening flash. This after an 8 1/2 month layoff and a far outside post.

Angle I use is to bet against this stable when justified.

PurplePower
04-12-2003, 02:12 PM
Originally posted by JustRalph
When I used to play Sam Houston I swear the Purple power sheet picks would always get late money. Purple....can you fill us in on this theory.....? Yes. Track information can affect the odds. I do not consider myself any better than the average track prognosticator - I hit between 30 and 36%, My best meeting was a Quarter Horse meeting - my worst was two years ago TB meeting when I hung around 25% and ended just over 27. The crowd generally hits 28 to 32% so, in picking winners on top I am average. Most people that like Purple Power like the fact that they may learn something to look for when handicapping by reading what I say about each horse that I write about. I have noticed instances when I was specifically picked a "long shot" as a top pick only to see that horse go off at odds way below my expected betting line. About three weeks before this last SHRP TB meeting ended, I picked a 15-1 maiden that Akili Gray (oh-for-forever) was riding. I made Akili my "Jock-to-Jive" for that night and used the tenth race as my "Play of the Day". When odds for the tenth came up, that maiden opened at 8-5 and wound up going off at 7-2. (Akili managed to save third after taking lead entering stretch.) That happens more in the later races because fans will bet the last races and go home. As a result, there is more "early money" on the tenth than on the first four or so races.
Similar to Syyamo's radio host, we have certain owners that tell everyone they know that their horse is "going to win" tonight and the opening odds on their 12-1 ML horses will be in the X-5 category then drift back up to 8 or 10-1 by off time. Keeping a note about which owners (and trainers) are known for being over confident about their prospects can help players find value in other runners that may be being underbet.
Interesting observation: "Touting" is illegal at racetracks in this country. Publishing selections, selling tip sheets etc. is NOT touting, per se. The "tout" goes up to an unsuspecting player and tells that player about "backside information" that will guarantee the player a winner. They agree that the player will make a $20 WIN bet (or whatever) on the "sure winner" and they will split the proceeds. The tout then finds another player and gives that player the "BI" about a DIFFERENT horse and makes the same deal. The tout that knew which horses to "throw out" could have $20 WIN tickets on each of the four or five "contenders" with no investment. After the race, the tout would meet at an agreed spot with the "mark" and collect his half of the winnings. The tout just had to remember which mark he told to meet where. That was a successful ploy in the days of 18,000 fans at a track like LaD on a Saturday afternoon. Losers didn't even realize that they had been "snookered" and the winners were happy to pay the tout and make the next wager.

Derek2U
04-12-2003, 03:03 PM
I'm losing my infinite patience .... get ur fat backsides in the WR
NOW.

so.cal.fan
04-12-2003, 11:49 PM
Does anyone know where Santa Anita gets it's information they print in the daily program on maiden stats....in particular....the information on where sire and/or dam broke their maidens?
I have noticed that several FTS winners have had the information right there in the program that the dam or sire or both broke their maidens first time out.
I am going to try to find out, as I am located at SA.
If I do.....I'll sure post the information.
I don't think Hollywood or Del Mar gives you these "hidden scoops".
Does anyone know the sorce of these stats?

PurplePower
04-13-2003, 01:38 AM
That info is available on the Brisnet CD available for $325.

midnight
04-13-2003, 01:48 AM
For years the Green Sheet had a big effect on the odds in Chicago. Whatever was listed on top usually ended up the favorite. Whatever Longshot John picked seldom went off over 8-1 even though it should have been 50-1. I would guess other tip sheets used to have the same effect. Today of course, not a lot of people actually go to the tracks anymore, so a tout's influence would be diminished a little.

dav4463
04-13-2003, 04:17 AM
I guess "tout" wasn't the right word. I meant selection services. One day I checked out a number different selectors on a contentious race at Lone Star Park. I used the 5 from the Dallas Morning News, 5 from Ft. Worth Star Telegram, Trackmaster had the race as a free pick from Valueline. Norm Hitzges tip sheet at the track was used as well as the DRF and one other tip sheet at the track. In all I had 15 different opinions on a 12 horse race. 9 of the 12 horses were picked to win by at least one selector ! Looked like a pass to me !

penguinfan
04-13-2003, 08:47 AM
Here's my question, and this comes from a guy who works with a sports handicapping service, several customers ask us "hey if your so good a betting games then why don't you just go to Vegas and play them yourself, why do you need to sell the plays?". A very good question, to which I can give the answer that we do just that, documented by a top 5 finish at the Las Vegas Hilton NFL Super contest last season, however we still look for every angle possible to make money without hurting ourselves. In sports betting there is no risk of selling your selections, none at all, it is pure profit. If I pose the same question to people who SELL their horse selections, what could their possible answer be, I mean after all if they are SOOO good then they should just play their selections and get rich because in this case selling your selections DOES in fact cost you money at the window in the form of lower odds. If a track like SHRP gives out selections to it's customers like Purple Power in hopes of raising the amount of money wagered and thus increasing their take then I certainally understand that as a good business decision, but I would steer clear of people selling selections that have no affiliation with the track your playing. Just recently thought about this more and more after another customer of ours asked the same question for the zillionth time.

Penguinfan

Suff
04-13-2003, 10:47 AM
Originally posted by so.cal.fan

I have noticed that several FTS winners have had the information right there in the program that the dam or sire or both broke their maidens first time out.
I am going to try to find out, as I am located at SA.
If I do.....I'll sure post the information.
I don't think Hollywood or Del Mar gives you these "hidden scoops".
Does anyone know the sorce of these stats?

If your willing do do the work,,,,alot of the information is free if you hunt down the Breeders www site. Most Farms Tout the success of thier Studs and mares on thier WWW site. Frequently I will go the WWW site. There are also a Number of sites that have buckets and Buckets of Information on sires and damns. I'll list a couple here to give you an idea of what to search for...

http://breeding.bloodhorse.com/sirelists/national03/leading_sire.asp (click on any of the Sire or mares name and it will take you to more detailed information)


To learn More about what exactly to look for in a Bloodline

Go to and read this page.

http://www.geocities.com/Colosseum/Track/2611/exfact.htm

After You've taken a look at that..

This site will mean more..

http://www.equineinfo.com/horseracing/sirelines.htm


I Hunt....and Hunt for sites like these. And I've come up with some nice winners from Information I've pruned out. but like I said. Its work. You have to find them and then sort through the irrelavant information.

Here are some other one's I've come up with over time

http://users.1st.net/racingsires/nfINTDB1.htm

http://www.dmtc.com/pedigree/

Larry Hamilton
04-13-2003, 11:41 AM
Difficult to make good decisions here as sample sizes are so small. However, the best figures (over a sample of greater than 10) is a Sire named HoneyAnd--5 for 11 since Jan 02, ROI of nearly 7 where 2 is break even....

The best "known" sire is DixieLandBand 10 for 34 ROI 2.79

Tom
04-13-2003, 11:46 AM
Do you put out a sheet for anything when SH is down?

kenwoodall
04-13-2003, 03:39 PM
Dave- i win over 50% win picks on spot plays using just the program using the most influential factor in racing. The trick is hardly anyone knows how to apply it. If you know what racing factor is most influentail as to which horse wins you are on your way!! (I still handicap for show bets!)

stgeorge
04-14-2003, 06:12 PM
C'mon Ken, don't keep us guessing! What's "the most influential factor in racing"?

cj
04-14-2003, 06:24 PM
Pick me, pick me!!!

Early speed is most influential!

CJ

Lefty
04-14-2003, 09:25 PM
Way back when I used to go to trk the prgm only listed horses name wgt and jockey and trnr. Do the prms list ES now?
If not he's prob talking about tote odds or, oh no, wght.

JustRalph
04-15-2003, 05:17 AM
Originally posted by stgeorge
C'mon Ken, don't keep us guessing! What's "the most influential factor in racing"?

There's the pitch! Swing Batter, Swing!

JustRalph
04-15-2003, 05:22 AM
Suff....

Great Post on those web sites. I was only aware of one of them. Very good stuff. These kind of posts make this the best damn horse racing board around. Thanks.

Ralph :D

sq764
04-15-2003, 02:04 PM
... what is the most overemphasized factor in handicapping?

I think people that dismiss a horse off of one terrible performance are overemphasizing that everyone has a bad day. I know people that cross out a horse that loses by over 10 lengths.. They fail to read in the comments that he was shut off and lost 5 lengths and had no shot.

Dave Schwartz
04-15-2003, 03:56 PM
He's not going to tell us, is he.

Suff
04-15-2003, 06:02 PM
Originally posted by JustRalph
Suff....

Great Post on those web sites. I was only aware of one of them. Very good stuff. These kind of posts make this the best damn horse racing board around. Thanks.

Ralph :D

My pleasure....its a give and take out here. I've spent hours trying to find information. I grab some nice winners from lil tidbits I pick up here and there. My Maiden race info is my "home run" information. I posted up....because I learn alot from other players out here.....so I don't mind sharing what I have uncovered. I have a few more,,,I'll stick um up as the situation presents it self. I once had $100 WP on a horse that paid $102.00 a few years back. I bet the horse on something I picked up on its Mare....some obscure piece of information. Ever since then.......I work harder accumalting info on firsters..and its paid huge dividends.

formula_2002
04-15-2003, 06:36 PM
Suff, you show a love for the game.

Joe M

Suff
04-15-2003, 06:52 PM
thanks Joe...You as well......I'll love it alot more if this 6 horse wins the finale at hawthorne. $190 double (had the $22.00 winner in the 8th)......Its was one of those bets where I had a Balance that that ended with a 6....so I played a $6.00 double 8-6 to get the balance to an even figure ....I always bet my balance down till it has a zero or 2 or 8 as the last figure.......just an odd thing I do. When The last figure in my balance is a 1,3,4, 5,6, 7,9 I never win. I Always round to 0, 2 or 8.

PurplePower
04-18-2003, 05:33 PM
Originally posted by Tom@HTR
Do you put out a sheet for anything when SH is down? Yes. Right now I am doing a sheet for Lone Star that is on the Sam Houston Race Park Purple Power site. I will be going to Louisville next week (arriving Friday before opening day) to watch morning workouts leading up to Derby Day. I will post some kind of sheet for Churchill in addition to a daily posting of "observations from the backside". My youngest son is an assistant trainer at CD and he usually makes room on the floor of the apartment he shares with a couple of horseshoers for me to throw out a bedroll.