Kentucky Derby opinions please...

[Gorgeous George]

Im going to put two big bets on two horses ante-post so i can follow there progress up until the derby. I would like to hear from everyone who i should bet on and why. Odds are below.

Old Fashioned 10/1
Pioneer of the Nile 14/1
Vineyard Haven 14/1
Midshipman 20/1
Donativum 20/1
Flat Out 20/1
Haynesfield 20/1
Stardom Bound 20/1
This Ones For Phil 20/1
Charitable Man 25/1
I Want Revenge 25/1
Square Eddie 25/1
Capt. Candyman Can 25/1
Chocolate Candy 25/1
Desert Party 25/1
Friesan Fire 25/1
Imperial Council 25/1
The Pamplemousse 25/1
Brother Keith 25/1
City Style 25/1
Dunkirk 25/1
Point Encounter 25/1
Professor Z 25/1
Run Away And Hide 25/1
Well Positioned 25/1
Believe In Hope 33/1
Coronet Of A Baron 33/1
Street Hero 33/1
Big Drama 33/1
Flying Pegasus 33/1
Giant Oak 33/1
Notonthesamepage 33/1
Patena 33/1
Beethoven 33/1
Danger To Society 33/1
Majormotionpicture 33/1
Papa Clem 33/1
Poltergeist 33/1
Terrain 33/1
Cribnote 40/1
Grand Adventure 40/1
Munnings 40/1
Skipadate 40/1
West Side Bernie 40/1
Hello Broadway 50/1
Shafted 50/1
Taqarub 50/1
Silver City 66/1

[Thomas Roulston]

Who here is turned off by Old Fashioned's 5.22 Dosage Index? His sire's and broodmare sire's AWDs are pretty bad as well.

Although interestingly, he is not void on the stamina wing, with a Dosage Profile that reads 10-11-5-0-2.

[Nacumi]

Who here is turned off by Old Fashioned's 5.22 Dosage Index? His sire's and broodmare sire's AWDs are pretty bad as well.

Although interestingly, he is not void on the stamina wing, with a Dosage Profile that reads 10-11-5-0-2.

Personally, his Southwest win looked like a sprinter who can get a mile, not a router who can carry that tactical speed 10-12F. He looked very tired at the end from those early fractions. It's the training mentality of "push them to the front and hope they can last" that I don't care for in these preps.
Frankly, I liked how Flat Out was moving at the end. He's got the pedigree to go a bit longer and looks like he can close on fast fractions. At 20-1, he's an interesting long shot.

[OTM Al]

I kinda like Flying Pegasus 33/1. Consider that Charitable Man was considered a top 3yo, though his injury will keep him from the Derby chase. He beat this guy by 1 length in the race that made his name. This one came back from a 4 1/2 month layoff, ran very well, forwardly placed, and missed by 2 lengths in the Risen Star. He should improve in his next. His daddy won and his dam side has some good stamina as well as Seattle Slew. He has some stakes winnings so probably doesn't need a lot more to make the gate

[Gorgeous George]

i like Brother Keith 25/1 his trainer rates him highly and has won a maiden. He starts in Saturday's $100,000 San Rafael Stakes at a mile so we will know more about him then. Could be a promising sort and at 25/1 could be of note.

[boomman]

Personally, his Southwest win looked like a sprinter who can get a mile, not a router who can carry that tactical speed 10-12F. He looked very tired at the end from those early fractions. It's the training mentality of "push them to the front and hope they can last" that I don't care for in these preps.
Frankly, I liked how Flat Out was moving at the end. He's got the pedigree to go a bit longer and looks like he can close on fast fractions. At 20-1, he's an interesting long shot.

Nacumi: I agree with you that Old Fashioned looked like a sprinter in that win and the track was a HUGE speed favoring bias that day, as I had singled the lone speed 4 horse in the race before and he wired them easily. As for Flat Out, I know a number of clockers who have liked him from the very beginning and he certainly had no chance over that speed favoring oval on Saturday.......

Boom

[point given]

I kinda like Flying Pegasus 33/1. Consider that Charitable Man was considered a top 3yo, though his injury will keep him from the Derby chase. He beat this guy by 1 length in the race that made his name. This one came back from a 4 1/2 month layoff, ran very well, forwardly placed, and missed by 2 lengths in the Risen Star. He should improve in his next. His daddy won and his dam side has some good stamina as well as Seattle Slew. He has some stakes winnings so probably doesn't need a lot more to make the gate
Agree 33/1 is a good price on him considering the 12 post and wide trip he got. The other is Giant Oak who might have been trip compromised,

[SmartyJ]

I have been following Dunkirk and am excited about his Allowance race tomorrow at Gulfstream. However, how is he 25-1 with only 1 start at 7 furlongs. I know the connections must be high on him as well as Gomez, but seems a bit strange he is only 25-1.

[OTM Al]

Agree 33/1 is a good price on him considering the 12 post and wide trip he got. The other is Giant Oak who might have been trip compromised,

I don't know how to figure Giant Oak yet. I do know if I could get a future on the Virginia Derby he would be of great interest, but I'm unsure of him on dirt still

[point given]

I don't know how to figure Giant Oak yet. I do know if I could get a future on the Virginia Derby he would be of great interest, but I'm unsure of him on dirt still
Thats why I said might, if he was trip compromised ,and runs better next time he won't be 33/1 if he doesn't he's an underlay at 33. Thats why i stopped playing the futures a long time ago. ;)

[FlyinLate]

The 2 that I would play at those odds are:
33/1 - Giant Oak
33/1 - Patena

Giant Oak's owners were offered a little over 3m for this colt just a month or two ago and denied the offer because they want the derby. His run in the risen star was compromised by his trip. Horse has tons of potential and should prove it when he gets a clean race.

Patena was purchased by IEAH stables and sent to Dutrow. Very dangerous combination. He was gaining late on Fresian Fire in the LeComte and looked to have wanted more ground (something alot of top derby choices dont seem to want). Fresian Fire also made this race look better by again winning the Risen Star.

I played small futures on Patena, Giant Oak, and Pamplemousse. I wouldn't spend too much here as I've found futures to be easy to lose money. I play them for the same reason you are, to follow some of my favorites on the trail.

[michiken]

I took $10 flyers on Giant Oak and Midshipman.

[Bruddah]

I agree with the dosage on Old Fashioned. He seems at best a 1m 1/6th horse. If he can win the Rebel at that distance, I will have reevaluate him for the Ark Derby at 1m 1/8th. However, I think, 1m 1/4 is definitely out of his reach. The Rebel (or next race) should really be more indicative than the Southwest. (JMHO)

I don't pay a lot of attention to these horses until they reach their tracks Derby, prior to the Ky Derby. Too much can happen.

I then consider the top 2 in the major Derbies. Look at their pedigrees and dosage. I then see how they train up to the Ky Derby at Churchill Downs.

This system has been good to me over the years. :ThmbUp:

[bellsbendboy]

Old Fashioned is clearly a sprinter. How did you figure this one so adroitly, so quickly? Also... How did his nine furlong Remsen win figure in your analysis? Thanks BBB