Todd Schrupp on TVG

[cj]

"If you lower the takeout on a circuit where the racing is horrible, it doesn't matter."

[rrbauer]

"If you lower the takeout on a circuit where the racing is horrible, it doesn't matter."

He's probably right, but of course Todd is numero uno in "generality" speak.

We haven't see enough lowered takeout for enough period of time to make any judgement as to its effect. However two tracks, Keeneland and Tampa, have lowered their takeout over the past 4 years and both of those tracks seem to be doing well. But their racing is hardly "horrible".

[exiles]

Like his p4 & p6 tickets uneducated, uninformed, ignorant, thank god for the mute button.What an a@#$%^&e

[BillW]

A few years ago Keeneland tried dropping their exotic take. I think it was New York that shut them out because of that. I guess that'll teach'em - they're back to 19% now. :bang:

[rrbauer]

A few years ago Keeneland tried dropping their exotic take. I think it was New York that shut them out because of that. I guess that'll teach'em - they're back to 19% now. :bang:
It was the WPS takeout that they dropped to 16% that caused the stink. Mid-Atlantic consortium shut them out.

[DeanT]

"If you lower the takeout on a circuit where the racing is horrible, it doesn't matter."

If the organization you draw your paycheck from charges 25 cents to bettors to make a bet, perhaps pricing does not matter to you much.

:confused:

[Tom]

If the organization you draw your paycheck from charges 25 cents to bettors to make a bet, perhaps pricing does not matter to you much.

:confused:

What other profession makes it's money a quarter at a time? :eek::lol:

[DeanT]

When betfair takes over the 25 cents will be gone the way of the do do bird, imo.

Betfair did not grow from a $2 million dollar company to a $4 billion dollar one in 8 years because they charged bettors for the privilege of being their customers.

[DeanT]

PS: For anyone interested HANA has completed an interview with the Managing Director of Betfair, as well as one betfair racing player (who is professional), and a prominent blogger who used to work with betfair when they broke into Australia recently. This interview is in regards to the TVG deal.

It has been so busy that we have not gotten to it, but for handicappers who want to read what the future might bring for TVG and horseplayers we will keep you posted.

[DeanT]

For North American bettors, a good deal of which are not price sensitive, we are inclined to agree with Todd. However, when you open your mind to what could be, and try and capture new markets like HANA is advocating through lower prices, quality is not as much on the scale like we think.

Case in point: Race 9 at Sunland, a full field of cheap horses, but an interesting race. Matched by UK bettors at betfair: $56,543US. A field at Santa Anita in the 5th race today, going off near the same time: Handle: $12,434US.

[cj]

I agree about "quality" racing. It is vastly overrated by those that don't know any better. Last I checked, nobody cares if you deposit money won in a NW2 lifetime claimer or a G2 stakes.

[DeanT]

I am opening my mind cj. This last race at Sunland is an absolute plethora of possibles. 3-1 chalk, top pace horse is 20-1. This is a hell of a betting race, and much more fun than a six horse field somewhere where everyone's fair odds line is the same.

[DeanT]

I see Cj's top early speed horse won that race and paid $31. I hope some CJ fans had that score.

[rokitman]

As a player, I want a a lower take-out. I need it to stay in business. But as a hypothetical track executive, I would not do it unless ALL other tracks do it. The way the players are playing now, across many tracks, whatever I give up is just going to get plundered by all the higher take tracks that didn't lower their take, and are now making more money at my expense. The "increased churn" is mostly not coming back to me. In fact, almost not at all. And worse, it's going to my competitors. Fugg that. But it is not realistic for all tracks to go to the same take. There are tracks with a mixed take of 20% of $10,000,000 in daily handle, and tracks with a mixed take of 25% but their daily is $500,000. Quite a difference in revenue. I'm sure if someone would guarantee the 500K track 2M a day, they'd be happy to agree to a mixed take of 20%. But that ain't gonna happen. And Iowa is not going to be able to compete with NY in handle until melting icebergs make Des Moines the new New York. HANA's "A" ratings for take-out have to be tiered into "A/B/C" tracks, just like an off-shore book :cool:, to be realistic. I don't know if they did that. I suspect not. But, if not, I'm sure they will in the future. I hear-by officially propose that HANA proposes a specific "Collective Bargaining Agreement" for take-out that includes what we will charmingly call Caribbean ABC track handle factoring.

[DeanT]

That is the sharpest post I have read in a long time on takeout issues. You are 100% correct.

[Charlie D]

When betfair takes over the 25 cents will be gone the way of the do do bird, imo.



You reckon

Transaction Charge, Premium Charge

$50mill cash for TVG is easy come by when you charge for this and for that

[rrbauer]

I agree, rokitman, with your assessment of the track operators' mindset. But, I know for a fact that rebating from simulcast facilities (non-ADW operations) to their top-tier players is far more common than generally known. Rebates are funded from high-takeout handle. Reduce takeout across the board (I'm dreaming, I know) and the whole rebate issue goes away.

[Cangamble]

As a player, I want a a lower take-out. I need it to stay in business. But as a hypothetical track executive, I would not do it unless ALL other tracks do it. The way the players are playing now, across many tracks, whatever I give up is just going to get plundered by all the higher take tracks that didn't lower their take, and are now making more money at my expense. The "increased churn" is mostly not coming back to me. In fact, almost not at all. And worse, it's going to my competitors. Fugg that. But it is not realistic for all tracks to go to the same take. There are tracks with a mixed take of 20% of $10,000,000 in daily handle, and tracks with a mixed take of 25% but their daily is $500,000. Quite a difference in revenue. I'm sure if someone would guarantee the 500K track 2M a day, they'd be happy to agree to a mixed take of 20%. But that ain't gonna happen. And Iowa is not going to be able to compete with NY in handle until melting icebergs make Des Moines the new New York. HANA's "A" ratings for take-out have to be tiered into "A/B/C" tracks, just like an off-shore book :cool:, to be realistic. I don't know if they did that. I suspect not. But, if not, I'm sure they will in the future. I hear-by officially propose that HANA proposes a specific "Collective Bargaining Agreement" for take-out that includes what we will charmingly call Caribbean ABC track handle factoring.

Someone like HPI, could offer large rebates to their players. They basically have a near monopoly on Canadian bettors, so the money bet at HPI stays at HPI, and players receiving the rebates would have little reason to go to competitors.

[cj's dad]

I simply do not understand why you or anyone else would get their shorts in a knot over what the TVG or HRTV folks are giving out as selections. Obviously, if you think the pix are so bad, and are a waste of money, then you should hope that others not as astute are being influenced and are betting them which would increase your payout if and when you hit a pick 4 or pick 6.




Like his p4 & p6 tickets uneducated, uninformed, ignorant, thank god for the mute button.What an a@#$%^&e

[BUD]

I simply do not understand why you or anyone else would get their shorts in a knot over what the TVG or HRTV folks are giving out as selections. Obviously, if you think the pix are so bad, and are a waste of money, then you should hope that others not as astute are being influenced and are betting them which would increase your payout if and when you hit a pick 4 or pick 6.

Being Pari Mutual I kinda like the situation...A knucklehead bigger than I given out selections..Change the moniker to Pro Selections and some maybe.. Then Others dumber than I jump all over those suckers---

For all I am concerned they should have The WGOBW Channel. We give out Bad Wager Channel----It would help me the new guy---Find a couple more prices...



Cut thru all My Bull and Yes I am agreeing with the Sire.

He was in my shoes and made it out a million miles to the better and more intelligent.

[JustRalph]

Bud, with Todd's record.........he is not moving any mutual pools with his picks :lol:

Maybe Les Onaka might move some money at Los Al......but Todd damn sure isn't.......anywhere.... :lol:

[DeanT]

who is the best capper on TVG, Matt? I cant get the station up here. We're blocked, like Cuba :)

[bobbyb]

who is the best capper on TVG, Matt? I cant get the station up here. We're blocked, like Cuba :)

Dean
I watch TVG and HRTV and I'm about 100 kms as the crow flies - North of you.
Loosen up those purse strings and invest in a (Dish Network) Sat'. :D

bobby

[DeanT]

Dean
I watch TVG and HRTV and I'm about 100 kms as the crow flies - North of you.
Loosen up those purse strings and invest in a (Dish Network) Sat'. :D

bobby

Have you seen my bankroll lately :D

[bobbyb]

Someone like HPI, could offer large rebates to their players. They basically have a near monopoly on Canadian bettors, so the money bet at HPI stays at HPI, and players receiving the rebates would have little reason to go to competitors.

Cangamble,

Rebates - Your right - "if" your an HPI insider, but I'm sure you know that.

The key word in your post is Monopoly - and that says it all. The average Fan does not have a chance in Hell of getting anything from HPI; and the average Fan wouldn't have a clue as to what we are talking about, when it comes to lower rake and rebates. :eek:

bobby

[exiles]

:lol:I simply do not understand why you or anyone else would get their shorts in a knot over what the TVG or HRTV folks are giving out as selections. Obviously, if you think the pix are so bad, and are a waste of money, then you should hope that others not as astute are being influenced and are betting them which would increase your payout if and when you hit a pick 4 or pick 6.

Because all the sharpies automatically throw his picks out and are on the true contenders, and of course the prices on the true contenders take a hit.:lol:

[GaryG]

I simply do not understand why you or anyone else would get their shorts in a knot over what the TVG or HRTV folks are giving out as selections. Yes, I am even more surprised that a sophisticated crowd like this would even pay attention to the talking heads. If Jeff Siegel is not on (HRTV) the mute is on for all except the race calls.

[cj's dad]

$.25 to a maximum of $20 per month.

One trip to the track will exceed that cost.

[andicap]

Didn't Ellis Park reduce the takeout rather drastically a few years ago on its Pick-4 bets to very little effect??

I recall something like that happening but can't remember exactly.

[Bubba X]

:lol:

Because all the sharpies automatically throw his picks out and are on the true contenders, and of course the prices on the true contenders take a hit.:lol:PErsonally, I would think that no serious horseplayer has any time to follow and evaluate TV personalty's opinion on a race.

There are just so many minutes in a day. Waiting to hear Todd Schrupp's opinion and then making a wager based on it is not something any serious person would do.

[rrbauer]

Didn't Ellis Park reduce the takeout rather drastically a few years ago on its Pick-4 bets to very little effect??

I recall something like that happening but can't remember exactly.

I think they had a small increase in P4 handle. There is very little motivation for horseplayers to pickup and move their tack to a track that they don't normally play because the track lowered the takeout on ONE BET that they offer ONE TIME per day. I tried the P4 at that track for a couple weeks and all that I can say is that the races being offered in the P4 were beyond my skill level as a handicapper! It's akin to playing the P4 at Keeneland when three of the four races are on the poly surface. And, the other race is a MSW on turf with five FTS.

[DeanT]

They over-doubled their pick 4 handles at ELP. ON claiming crown day the 4% pick 4 pool was around $100,000.

The problem was: It was not taken by many adw's, Vegas etc, because at 4% they could not get a slice for themselves for carrying it. I tried to bet it up here in Canada and it was at a 26% takeout. I think Twinspires/Bris was the only place you could bet it online at 4%

[highnote]

The way the players are playing now, across many tracks, whatever I give up is just going to get plundered by all the higher take tracks that didn't lower their take,....[/I] The "increased churn" is mostly not coming back to me.

Rokit,

Interesting post, but I'm not sure it is correct -- based on my limited experience.

For example, Let's say I bet Win/place/show and exacta at Aqueduct with takes of 15% and 17.5% takes (or whatever they are today). And let's say I win a few bucks on a couple of races.

Now, a race comes up at Turf Paradise that I'm interested in, but I know the takes are 20% for wps and 21% for exacta. There is no way I'm going to send my money to TP -- especially the straight pools where the take is ridiculously high. Just won't happen.

I'll pass the race and wait for another opportunity at a lower take.

So for me, the track with the lower take will get my churn.