Pizzola

[Pubby]

Just wondering if anyone uses Pizzola's Projected Power Fraction numbers, either from the book or software.

I've been testing the numbers for a few months, using only the PPF and his Balanced Speed Ratings. I found that the Balanced Speed Ratings did not hold up, but the PPF has helped to isolate contenders.

My background with pace figures has been Sartin/Brohamer and briefly Quirin style numbers. I have been surprised at the success of the PPF (at several tracks) especially in sprint races. I thought that the numbers were pretty simplistic, reminding me somewhat of Scott's ability times.

I'd appreciate any feedback from anyone who has tried these numbers either favorable or not. Also wondering if anyone has used them for turf/routes. For the software users (if any) I would like to know if there are other features besides the PPF and BSR.

Thanks.

[Zaf]

I have found the PPF useful from time to time and have found some nice price winners with it. I hit the tri in the Preakness last year boxing the top 4 PPF contenders. I never use it as a stand alone factor. It is very easy to calculate, so if I have the time, I do it for my main contenders.

I find the PBS number to be useless.

ZAFONIC

[cj]

I gladly welcome anyone using PBS or PPF ratings to the same betting pools as myself! (Not that I have a choice)

CJ

[Tom]

I use the fulcrum part of the PBS number to select pacelines for horses or to forgive ad races - if the pace of race was much faster than the fulcrun, I will use that as an excuse. I use the spirit of the PBF idea if not the letter of it all the time.

[GameTheory]

I have found PBS numbers to be track-specific as to where they work well. I also don't follow the letter of the law when making them since I don't use the same data as in the book (I've got no DRF-style speed numbers, for instance). At some tracks, just betting the highest PBS number in sprints is profitable. Other tracks, it is worthless.

I haven't figured out how to use PPF style numbers or the ideas behind it in any consistently predictable (and therefore useful) way. I think it needs something else to complement it...

[GR1@HTR]

I employ a variation of the PPF using FPS figs.

For example,
If the fulcrum horse has an EP of 56.75 and a Fr3 fo 48.00, I will assign a personalized projected Cramer Speed fig w/ a PPF in Sartin terms.

Example for LS race 1 yesterday
Fulcrum 56.75 FPS, runs a 48.00 Fr3
Horse....Projected Cramer....PPF
1........20...................negative fig
2........30...................negative fig
3........50...................+2.0 (Fr3 of 50.00)
4........scratch
5........58...................+3 (fr3 of 51.00)
6........45...................negative fig
7........55...................+1.5 (fr3 of 51.5)

Just happend to finish 5-3-7

[GR1@HTR]

LS 4/13/03 Race 1 5.5f dirt for 4 YO & Up Fillies & Mares

C7500 Track fast Time 22.72 47.21 59.79 106.12 Weather clear

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
sc horse pp st 2f 3f 4.5f 5.5f odds
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 I'm Not Sure 4 2 5-1.5 5-2 2-1 1-0 0.9
3 Dancingwithpassion 3 6 4-1.5 6-3 4-2.5 2-0.5 7.2
7 Princess Pancho 6 1 3-1 2-0.1 1-0 3-1.75 9.0
6 Pleasant Cloud 5 4 6-1.75 3-1 3-2 4-3.75 5.5
2 Proper Prescision 2 3 2-0.5 4-1.5 6-3 5-4.75 7.1
1 Two Zip 1 5 1-0 1-0 5-3 6-9.75 3.4

[kgonzales]

I've used Pizzolla's methods as outlined in his book, Handicapping Magic for about two years now. I have to say, despite their simplicity, they have changed my game for the better. I originally used the rating methods right out of the book, but found that using raw, unadjusted numbers (fractions and drf speed ratings) created too much aberrence in the numbers, especially with shippers. I found myself guessing way more often than I felt comfortable with.

I have devised my own version of the PBS/PPF ratings using the BRIS/TSN speed and pace numbers. I've won with enough longshots to get a little relief and confindence in the methods. I actually find my PBS numbers to be more useful than the PPF numbers in sorting out the contention in a race. The exceptions being turf middle distances and races with a lot of early (pace) pressure. Even in those situations I don't follow the "best" PPF's blindly.

There are often horses with one or two huge PPF numbers, but in races with a slow pace (compared to the fulcrum). I tend to discount these. I like the rated race to have a pace within 3 lengths of the fulcrum on dirt and 5 lengths on the turf. i think Bob Harris has posted regarding that topic. Do a search for his posts. He has a lot of experience using the HM numbers.

In dirt races where I favor PPF numbers I still want the horse to have a contending PBS number in it's Form Cycle Window; and I still have not come up with a solution to rating routers in a sprint (they tend to have very inflated PPf's). In turf races I do generally take the best PPF of any of the horse's races showing. I only require it be within the past calendar year. Another thing I've recently discovered in turfers is a low PPF rating in a very fast paced race last out. Give these horses extra credit.

Pizzolla's methods do work although you won't hit a high percentage of winners (chasing big prices); just make sure you do get healthy odds when you bet. This style of play doesn't suit everybody, but if you can stick out the losing streaks you just might show a profit.

javascript:smilie(':confused:')[REDBOARD ALERT!] Just Saturday in the Arkansas Derby the PBS numbers had Sir Cherokee rated 4th and within a couple of lengths of 2nd, at 50+ - 1 a definite bet. Eugene's 3rd Son was tops but his number was so huge that it was hard to accept (especially seeing how NY Hero ran in the Wood), still a contender though. I was keying Defrere's Vixen and Sir Cherokee top and bottom in the exacta with Comic truth, Man Among Men, and Eugene with win bets on both. Unfortunately this anecdote doesn't end so well. I got caught up playing Keeneland and didn't call my bet in til 2 minutes to post. All I got was a busy signal. When I finally got through they were already loading in the gate. All I got in was a win bet on Defrere and shut out of everthing else, including a $113 winner and $1000 exacta. I felt - no still feel - like a dope.

Anyway, good luck,
KG:confused: