Track Master Speeds

[Ray2000]

I find this more often than can be attributed to human typo or error.
Lookout for big differences in Speed ratings from last week pp line vs typical...


HN..Horse..PP..1/4..1/2..3/4..Str..Finish..Actual

Race 2 MR 11/24/08
Gait: Trot..Purse: $4,500..Class: NW300PSL6..Track Cond: FT..Temp-Allow: 36-0..Off Time: 3:49

2..Genesis Royal Oak..2..1/2H..1/2T..1/1T..1/2T..1/NK..2:01.0 ........SR 90 (12/3/08 program for MR)
1..Redeemable.........1..2/2H..2/2T..2/1T..2/2T..2/NK..2:01.0 ........SR 90 (12/11/08 program for YR)

Time: 30.1..1:00.2..1:31.0..2:01.0


(Same Day) Race 11 MR 11/24/08
Gait: Pace..Purse: $2,700..Class: 4000CL F&M..Track Cond: FT..Temp-Allow: 36-0..Off Time: 4:09

1..Camelia Classic......1..2/1T..2/1T..3/3H..3/4H..3/4..2:01.0 ........SR 67 (12/12/08 program for MR)

Time: 30.2..1:01.2..1:31.0..2:00.1



Same day, same post, same temp, same Individual Final time .....23 point difference in Speed Rating
Guess I'll write TMaster again or maybe put this on their blog site for harness

[mrroyboy]

I have noticed the same thing. Some of them look wierd. But Lotta kash likes them so I guess most of them are accurate.

[LottaKash]

Wow, for the most part, I find that the TM-SR's are fairly accurate at most tracks......But, that is a glaring error, I think.......

The SR's are used by me, but just as a guide and a general "ballpark" number that allows me to quickly compare one horse to another speed-wise, and they are not the main reason that I will bet a horse......Tho, I have found that most of my winners are almost always within 5-points of the top SR in the race...

Using pace and fractions to a much greater extent than the SR's, gives me the real insight into a race, and my numbers tell me if a horse is improving or regressing in his current form-cylce, and that is my bottom line.....Still, if a horse is not within that 5-point range +or-, I will take exception to that and I will adjust my opinion accordingly, to reflect that big difference... I have found that if my top-contending horse isn't within that general 5-point spread, unless he has some nice interior fraction(s) to hide or explain that much lower SRing, I will usually pass the race ....

If one uses these numbers routinely, he can usually tell rather quickly if something is out of whack...

Who know's who was eating an Oreo Cookie, when they were inputting those numbers into the machine.....??...a 23 point swing is way out of line, and I doubt that the variant had much to do with that discrepancy.......Sxxt happens....:jump:

Wake up TM......:bang:

best,

[thespaah]

I find this more often than can be attributed to human typo or error.
Lookout for big differences in Speed ratings from last week pp line vs typical...


HN..Horse..PP..1/4..1/2..3/4..Str..Finish..Actual

Race 2 MR 11/24/08
Gait: Trot..Purse: $4,500..Class: NW300PSL6..Track Cond: FT..Temp-Allow: 36-0..Off Time: 3:49

2..Genesis Royal Oak..2..1/2H..1/2T..1/1T..1/2T..1/NK..2:01.0 ........SR 90 (12/3/08 program for MR)
1..Redeemable.........1..2/2H..2/2T..2/1T..2/2T..2/NK..2:01.0 ........SR 90 (12/11/08 program for YR)

Time: 30.1..1:00.2..1:31.0..2:01.0


(Same Day) Race 11 MR 11/24/08
Gait: Pace..Purse: $2,700..Class: 4000CL F&M..Track Cond: FT..Temp-Allow: 36-0..Off Time: 4:09

1..Camelia Classic......1..2/1T..2/1T..3/3H..3/4H..3/4..2:01.0 ........SR 67 (12/12/08 program for MR)

Time: 30.2..1:01.2..1:31.0..2:00.1



Same day, same post, same temp, same Individual Final time .....23 point difference in Speed Rating
Guess I'll write TMaster again or maybe put this on their blog site for harnessCouple thngs. First the top race is a trot. The other a pace. Pacers are generally faster at covering the mile thasn trotters.
Second the first is a conditioned race. The claimer is acording to the conditions posted "open". In other words the claimers may be multiple winners and the conditioned race is earnings restricted.
It is very possible that the $4k claimers are actaully a better class of horse than the NW300PS/L6..

[Ray2000]

thespaah

Your points are valid of course, but TM doesn't use Gait or Class in assigning a Speed rating to a specific horse in a specific race.
http://www.trackmaster.com/harness/info/srcr.htm

[LottaKash]

thespaah

Your points are valid of course, but TM doesn't use Gait or Class in assigning a Speed rating to a specific horse in a specific race.
http://www.trackmaster.com/harness/info/srcr.htm

Good point thespaah, I didn't even notice that, if it were a race I would've lost....haha.....

And Ray, I believe from my observations, that TM does use a differnent criteria when making the the SR's for Trotters vs. Pacers.....In fact on that score I would bet on it....

For instance and this is general....tonite in the first race at Yonkers, which is a Pace....28:4 58:4 1:28 157:1 and this horse was a front runner losing only 1-length in the lane.....and his SR was 81....-2 variant...and his preivious race was 28:1 57:1 126:2 1:57.1 with a variant of 3 and a SR of 86

and in the next race which was a Trot....28:3 58:3 1:29.3 1:59.3 and this horse was in the 2-hole just off the leader, and his SR was 95........and in his previous race, sitting way off the pace but running mostly evely thruout the fractions with a 0 variant were 29:2 1:00 1:30.2 2:00.2 SR was 86......

So you see this would explain that discrepancy very much. so....and I believe it is quite evident that there is a differnce set of rules for each gait.....I have always noticed this, and without even seeing the GAIT, if you showed me the fractions and the SR ,I can always tell if it was a Trot or a Pace race.....I just didn't notice that gait thing early on....haha :D

best,

[Ray2000]

Johnny

I can only go by Track Master's published description of the factors used..


In computing a horse's speed rating, four separate factors are combined.

1.) The first component is called the raw speed rating. This number is a direct conversion of the horse's finishing time and the distance of the race using our computer modeled formula.

2.) The raw speed rating is then modified with an Inter-Track Variant (ITV), a number that allows for the speed variations between tracks. To determine the fundamental speed differentials between the various size tracks we analyze horses that have shipped to and from various racetracks throughout the year.

3.) The third adjustment to the raw speed rating is the Daily Track Variant (DTV). This compensates for things such as a sloppy track or other day-to-day factors affecting the track condition. This can even vary between races as conditions change.

4.) The fourth and final adjustment to the resulting speed rating is the post position adjustment factor. This takes into account the positive or negative effects post has on the horse's overall race performance. This would make it possible to see a horse finish 2nd and have a higher speed rating that the horse who won.



If you're refering to "Kaline" YR race 2 the post and variance and final individual times make this too complicated to discuss during Happy hour:)

[LottaKash]

Johnny

I can only go by Track Master's published description of the factors used..



If you're refering to "Kaline" YR race 2 the post and variance and final individual times make this too complicated to discuss during Happy hour:)

Ah Ray, I see you are in the Amaretto again.....CHEERS !!!...:jump:

best,

[mrroyboy]

Wow, for the most part, I find that the TM-SR's are fairly accurate at most tracks......But, that is a glaring error, I think.......

The SR's are used by me, but just as a guide and a general "ballpark" number that allows me to quickly compare one horse to another speed-wise, and they are not the main reason that I will bet a horse......Tho, I have found that most of my winners are almost always within 5-points of the top SR in the race...

Using pace and fractions to a much greater extent than the SR's, gives me the real insight into a race, and my numbers tell me if a horse is improving or regressing in his current form-cylce, and that is my bottom line.....Still, if a horse is not within that 5-point range +or-, I will take exception to that and I will adjust my opinion accordingly, to reflect that big difference... I have found that if my top-contending horse isn't within that general 5-point spread, unless he has some nice interior fraction(s) to hide or explain that much lower SRing, I will usually pass the race ....

If one uses these numbers routinely, he can usually tell rather quickly if something is out of whack...

Who know's who was eating an Oreo Cookie, when they were inputting those numbers into the machine.....??...a 23 point swing is way out of line, and I doubt that the variant had much to do with that discrepancy.......Sxxt happens....:jump:

Wake up TM......:bang:

best,

John when you say within 5 pts of the top rated horse what speed rating are you talking about. The last one the last 2 etc?

[Stick]

Ray,

There is definitely a difference between trotters and pacers in the TM SR. At Calx tonight in race 2 Challenge The King gets a SR of 96 (final time 157) for the last race while in the 9th Originability gets a 71 SR (final time 157:3) for running in a similar trip. I like the TM SR when comparing horses that raced on the same track last time , but taking a SR from one track to another leaves me scratching my head. Especially horses getting shipped to the Big M with these ballooned up SR at other tracks.

[thespaah]

thespaah

Your points are valid of course, but TM doesn't use Gait or Class in assigning a Speed rating to a specific horse in a specific race.
http://www.trackmaster.com/harness/info/srcr.htm
Ok I understand all that. But if TM rates Trotters and Pacers on identical criteria then their stats cannot be used to compare one speed rating to another.
Does TM differentiate between 1/2 mi. 5/8ths and One mile ovals?. I would think they must. Typically, the longer the track the longer the turns and thus less speed loss in the turns.
Anyway. Anyone familiar with standardbred racing knows the two gaits are drastically different and the pacing gait is faster than on the trot.
IMO if TM does not allow for speed and class differences between gaits and classes, then their speed ratings are not to be trusted.
To be fair and above board I don't let what I see as arbitrary speed ratings to enter into the handicapping process.
I use class, trips, negative and positive driver/ trainer changes and other criteria such as time off to make my selex.

[Ray2000]

I beg the Forum's forgiveness....

Stick, LottaKash, thespaah you are right.


Trackmaster uses a different scale for trotters than they do for pacers, a fact I was not aware of and which I've never seen an explanation.

Let me explain how I got the numbers for this post. It wasn't a program (MR) that fell behind the desk and caught my eye, rather I was doing some "reverse engineering" to extract the track speed ratings that TM uses for the different tracks in Harness.
I looked at all horses in 2008 who left from post 1 or 2 on days where the track daily track variance was no more than +-2, and compared their SR to the horse's actual finishing time. The average difference between tracks should be proportional to the Track speed rating.

I noticed that about 10% of the races at any one track had a cluster of times that were off by 10 to 20 speed points from the others. The possibility of a different scale for trotters never entered my mind. To me, a trotter, a pacer or a goat who goes the mile in say 1:55-2 should get the same rating if all the other factors are the same.

But that was not (is not) the case, and I stand corrected.


Here's the SRs for 11/19/08 for MR races

TRACK....GAIT....COND....CR....SR....POST....HRSE_ TM_FN


MR....P....FT....61....53....2....124
MR....P....FT....71....57....1....123.2
MR....P....FT....61....58....1....123
MR....P....FT....77....63....1....121.8
MR....P....FT....68....66....2....121.4
MR....P....FT....74....70....1....120.5
MR....P....FT....74....70....2....120.6
MR....P....FT....74....70....2....120.6
MR....T....FT....87....70....1....125.2
MR....P....FT....72....75....1....119.4
MR....P....FT....72....76....2....119.4
MR....P....FT....77....76....2....119.3
........................67.0 ave


MR....T....FT....86....76....2....124.1
MR....T....FT....86....80....1....123.2
MR....T....FT....86....80....2....123.3
MR....T....FT....87....80....2....123.3
MR....T....FT....83....81....1....122.9
MR....T....FT....83....83....2....122.6
MR....T....FT....91....87....2....121.8
MR....T....FT....92....88....1....121.6
MR....T....FT....91....94....1....120.2
MR....T....FT....92....95....2....120
......................84.4 ave

[Stick]

Thespaah,

The class of the horse would not alter the SR. If the horse is entered in a conditioned or claiming race would not alter the SR either. TM uses final time, variant, post position and/or trip. If two horses wire the field from the 1 hole at the same track with the same variant in say 156 and one was a 10K claimer and the other was a 25K claimer they would have the same SR.

[harness2008]

Here is a newbies perspective.

If there is indeed such a difference in speed rating between miles that are run almost identically and the sole reason appears to be only because it was either a trotting or pacing race, should we all even bother to lose sleep over this?

Trotters race against other trotters and pacers run against other pacers. At no time are the two intermixed. If they did, THEN we would have a huge problem with comparisons. So although it appears there are different formulas that TM uses to compute the SR for either a trotting or pacing race and it appears on the surface that there is something amiss here, you are still in a sense comparing apples with apples and oranges with oranges.

Just my 2 cents.

[Ray2000]

Good point, Harness2008

When it gets down to the nitty-gritty handicapping, the different scales make no difference.

I'm one of the few where it might make a small difference because I play a lot of tracks and use a computer to look for certain types of races. TMaster class is one of the search criteria and is based on average SRs of the entrants.

Never too old to learn something new....:)