FTS blinkers question for the database guys

[cnollfan]

Does anyone have stats for how first-time starters wearing blinkers do versus first-time starters without blinkers?

[DanG]

Does anyone have stats for how first-time starters wearing blinkers do versus first-time starters without blinkers?
Good angle: My DB is tied up right now CF; but I’ve run this in the past and FTS wearing blinkers under-perform by roughly 20% in impact value and ROI. This was taken from the charts btw; because as we know the equipment reporting on FTS can be a little spotty when the entries are drawn.

[1st time lasix]

I don't view it as a positive ......nor do i view lasix on a firster as a positve. No data base to support....just wager value.

[cnollfan]

Good angle: My DB is tied up right now CF; but I’ve run this in the past and FTS wearing blinkers under-perform by roughly 20% in impact value and ROI. This was taken from the charts btw; because as we know the equipment reporting on FTS can be a little spotty when the entries are drawn.

Thanks, Dan.

[cmoore]

Here are a few angles I find that hit..No Database, just something I've noticed

...Maidens who get blinkers on for the first time and show there fastest work since their last race..Probably a blinkers on workout

...Maidens who showed early speed but quit badly and are getting blinkers on and or lasix

...Maidens who run for their 2nd time with lasix

..I often find first timers who run their best works in the middle of their worktab. I think trainers purposely run their horses slow in the last 2 or 3 works to get a better price..

Runners I usually avoid

...Seconditis runners. Any Horse who runs 2nd or 3rd three straight races in a row..They are almost always bet down.. IF they decide to break that pattern. So be it..

...Runners who only show one work in 30 days..

...Fast 3 furlong works are a dime a dozen..Be aware of :35 bullet works and no 4 or 5f furlong works. We all could go out and sprint for 20 yards..Most of us would be out of gas and fall flat on our face..:lol:

[FlyinLate]

...Maidens who get blinkers on for the first time and show there fastest work since their last race..Probably a blinkers on workout

...Maidens who showed early speed but quit badly and are getting blinkers on and or lasix

..I often find first timers who run their best works in the middle of their worktab. I think trainers purposely run their horses slow in the last 2 or 3 works to get a better price..

Runners I usually avoid

...Seconditis runners. Any Horse who runs 2nd or 3rd three straight races in a row..They are almost always bet down.. IF they decide to break that pattern. So be it..

...Fast 3 furlong works are a dime a dozen..Be aware of :35 bullet works and no 4 or 5f furlong works. We all could go out and sprint for 20 yards..Most of us would be out of gas and fall flat on our face..:lol:

I find of these to be pretty accurate. I've been noticing more and more of these tactics, especially the slow recent works. Lately I've noticed alot of the solid works being 4-6 works back and then some slow breezes. These horses tend to be worth a shot.

Seconditis is another angle ill always use as a play against unless the figures tower over others. Only time I don't abide by this rule is if they run second, take a layoff, then run second on their return. When they return first back at second sometimes the horse is worth a small price second off the layoff.

[Dan H]

In light of comments made recently on HRTV, I believe the use of past performances in this study could provide unreliable results. I can't remember which host said it, but he implied that a FTS's past performance may or may not indicate BLINKERS ON as an equipment change. Since this is the horse's first race, there was no equipment to change from (no prior race). The conversation came about during the post parade where a horse trotted by with blinkers on and no note in the PPs. Made sense at the time. I thought thought about it, laughed about, and forgot about it.

Stats provided from Results Charts may be a better study?

If that's what you meant from the get-go, I regret the intrusion.

Dan H

[cnollfan]

Dan H,

I did mean from the result charts, but I appreciate your interest nonetheless.

cnollfan

[RonTiller]

Does anyone have stats for how first-time starters wearing blinkers do versus first-time starters without blinkers?


Type Age Blink Starts Win% ROI IV
MCL 2 B 7965 8.15 0.74 0.65
MCL 2 No B 13549 9.38 0.84 0.75
MCL 3 B 11512 5.93 0.62 0.53
MCL 3 No B 17576 7.58 0.72 0.68
MSW 2 B 10190 7.46 0.59 0.67
MSW 2 No B 29222 10.02 0.74 0.90
MSW 3 B 8088 6.31 0.55 0.57
MSW 3 No B 19750 8.49 0.70 0.76


These are for horses actually wearing blinkers.

Dan is correct - the whole equipment change reporting prior to the race is inconsistent and frustrating. Life would be so so much easier if before the race, somebody just reported who's wearing blinkers, PERIOD...NOT, who is changing (depending on what you mean by "change"). It sometimes seems like all this was designed to screw with us instead of accurately informing us. Sigh...

Ron Tiller
HDW

[cnollfan]

Thanks, Ron! Outstanding info. Just what I was looking for.

Dare I ask for more? What I am also interested in is this: The performance of second-time starters in Maiden races that did not wear blinkers in their first start, versus the performance of second-time starters in Maiden races that did wear blinkers in their first start. I'm not that interested in whether they have blinkers on or not in the actual race in question, only the previous race.

What I am driving at here is that a horse that shows up in its first lifetime start with blinkers on has issues.

cnollfan

[RonTiller]

ALL 2nd Race Lifetime Horses

Starts Wins Win% ROI IV
129207 14190 10.98 0.69 0.99


ALL 2nd Race Lifetime Horses

Blinkers Today Starts Wins Win% ROI IV
BL Today 51358 4719 9.19 0.64 0.83
No BL Today 77849 9471 12.17 0.72 1.09



ALL 2nd Race Lifetime Horses

Blinkers Today Blinkers FTS Starts Wins Win% ROI IV
BL Today BL 1st ST 39803 3681 9.25 0.64 0.83
BL Today No BL 1st ST 11555 1038 8.98 0.64 0.81
No BL Today BL 1st ST 2001 178 8.90 0.70 0.80
No BL Today No BL 1st ST 75848 9293 12.25 0.72 1.10


With respect to 2nd race lifetime horses, the real division is not between horses who wore blinkers in their 1st start and those who didn't; rather it is:

1) between horses who did not sport blinkers in either race versus everybody else (1.1 versus 0.83, 0.81 and 0.80 IV)

2) between horses who sport blinkers and those who don't in their 2nd race lifetime (0.64 and 0.64 versus 0.70 and 0.72 ROI)

This is quite an interesting result.

Before you ask "Dare I ask for more?" again, no...

Ron Tiller
HDW

[cnollfan]

Thanks, Ron!

[cmoore]

A maiden who shows early speed then gets blinkers on next time out is one to look for..Especially if his works have improved..I don't think a database can measure which horse showed early speed in there last race then got blinkers on and won..

ALL 2nd Race Lifetime Horses

Blinkers Today Starts ......Wins... Win%.. ROI.... IV
BL Today .......51358 ....4719.....9.19.... 0.64....0.83
No BL Today ......77849.....9471....12.17....0.72....1.09

These stats above to me mean nothing..Your grouping all horses together no matter how they did in there first start..

[cnollfan]

There are often profitable subsets within a larger unprofitable context. Pretty much every horse I bet on violates some major handicapping tenet or another. Blinkers on speed could certainly be one of those profitable subsets. That said, Ron has found that first and second time starters without blinkers outperform first and second time starters with blinkers. I think this is valuable info.

[cmoore]

There are often profitable subsets within a larger unprofitable context. Pretty much every horse I bet on violates some major handicapping tenet or another. Blinkers on speed could certainly be one of those profitable subsets. That said, Ron has found that first and second time starters without blinkers outperform first and second time starters with blinkers. I think this is valuable info.

They both show a losing roi..To toss a 1st or 2nd time starter because he wears blinkers based on database statistics that groups all runners together means very very little to me..To each is own..

[Tom]

Who said anything bout tossing?
Ron answered the question asked.

[cmoore]

Who said anything bout tossing?
Ron answered the question asked.

That's obviously one of the options you will have..Either bet him or toss him..Nothing against Rons database. Just to me..Those stats mean very little..

[Tom]

Or just ignore the factor.

[yesman3000]

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http://www.powerpicks.com/trpdfrpt/aquwsc.pdf

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have a great day:cool: :cool: