True Favorites

[sligg]

Did another test for January 2009 on True Favorites: The results on the win end showed a small loss.

I then focused on a subset playing True Favorites for place that had a double or triple speed advantage. There were only 13 bets but they all placed for 100% with a ROI of 21%. There was a 3% loss playing these 13 selections for win.

Is this play worth pursuing? The cost to get the data is $59.95 using TSN Advantage plan.

[cmoore]

Did another test for January 2009 on True Favorites: The results on the win end showed a small loss.

I then focused on a subset playing True Favorites for place that had a double or triple speed advantage. There were only 13 bets but they all placed for 100% with a ROI of 21%. There was a 3% loss playing these 13 selections for win.

Is this play worth pursuing? The cost to get the data is $59.95 using TSN Advantage plan.

You could play those races at ehorsex to win and get 20-50% higher payouts. They don't have all the tracks though..You'll have to check on that.

You could also play them over seas and get a rebate...That would push your roi even higher. I've tried to find systematic bets in the past..It always came a crashing down. There might be some angles out there that work..I haven't found any over the years..

[Track Collector]

Your sample size (137 from previous post) is way to small to be statistically valid, that is, to be sure that it will be profitable in the long run. From personal experience I have identified angles which looked profitable for sample sizes of 1000 to 2000 only to turn out negative when even bigger sample sizes were reached.

My advice, have fun playing your new angle with very small wagering amounts which you can afford to lose. Do not proceed with larger wager amounts until you sample size increases significantly. (Perhaps some of the statistics sharpies who read this forum can tell you what the correct sample size should be in order to have high confidence that the angle will be profitable in the long run.)

Also remember that if wagering thru a domestic ADW outfit, you need to consider that YOUR winning wagers will dilute the ROI identified in your study (which did not reflect any of your wagers.) Send me a PM if you want help with the dilution calculation.


Track Collector