Question for all db guys and gals

[Bruddah]

In a horse's 3 yo year, what is the average increase in the Beyer, Cj, or other performance number does the horse show when he finally reaches his optimum race. i.e. if the horse ran a 99 before he ran his highest performance figure of 114, it they would have shown an increase of 15 points.

I am curious as to the average increase shown by 3 yo's. I don't know if this is possible to obtain, but to me it would be interesting to know.

Thanks for any help. :confused:

[cj]

Beyer, in one of his books, says it is around 1.5 Beyer points per month, or 18 over a year. It is a good ballpark number. That said, you aren't going to see horses that sprint well at a young age improve that much. You will see routers get better and better.

[sjk]

I use avg improvement 1 1/2 pts per month up to May 1st and then 1/2 pt per month until November 1st.

[Bruddah]

Let's see if I understand. If a 3 yo ran a performance rating of 90 in it's last race in Feb., then you could reasonably expect it to run a 93 in it's next raise, if there was improvement?

I suppose I was hoping that someone with a db could run a query and look at a 3 yo's highest performance # and obtain the average difference between that race and the race just prior. In other words what was the improved performance?

I suppose you guys are telling me, if it's May, you can look for a 1.5 increASE IN PERFORMANCE X 5 MONTHS (May) or 7.5 pts. I'm still confused.
:confused:

[DanG]

Bruddah,

I did a post a while back on the HTR board that you may find interesting / or not. It’s based upon the “Quirin” scale of speed ratings…

Link: http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6219&highlight=MATURITY

[sjk]

Let's see if I understand. If a 3 yo ran a performance rating of 90 in it's last race in Feb., then you could reasonably expect it to run a 93 in it's next raise, if there was improvement?

I suppose I was hoping that someone with a db could run a query and look at a 3 yo's highest performance # and obtain the average difference between that race and the race just prior. In other words what was the improved performance?

I suppose you guys are telling me, if it's May, you can look for a 1.5 increASE IN PERFORMANCE X 5 MONTHS (May) or 7.5 pts. I'm still confused.
:confused:

If it is a given that the race is its highest number than I am sure that on the average it will be more than 1.5 pts per month greater than the race before.

I am saying that sometime it will be higher and somewhat less times it will be lower but on the average it will be higher by an amount that depends on the time since the previous race and is greater by .05 x the number of days between (assuming before May 1).

[Bruddah]

Bruddah,

I did a post a while back on the HTR board that you may find interesting / or not. It’s based upon the “Quirin” scale of speed ratings…

Link: http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6219&highlight=MATURITY

Very interesting information and useful for background knowledge.