Track Pars and Horses Pars

[Conquer]

So we are all aware of track pars in the past performacnes right? Incorporating them into our handicapping can give an edge for sure. But I am rusty on how to use it properly, for instance:

lets say todays race the track pars are and it is for a 6f dirt
E1 - 80
E2 - 85
Late - 90
Speed - 95

Now lets say the horses last race was also on 6f dirt same class but didnt do so hot and read:
E1 - 67
E2 - 72
Late - 80
Speed - 79

But lets say the race before that was 5f dirt same class and was similar to todays track pars. Which do you use?

I guess what I am asking is, do you find the last time the horse ran the same distance and surface as todays race or closest to it in the SAME class and make your decision in comparison with todays race pars, or do you always just use the last race pars as consideration?

Also do you use all the pars or do you restrict it to the horses run style such as a horse whose run style is P you would only compare Late and speed pars, whereas a horse who is an S you would compare E2 and speed pars, and a horse with EP or E etc..

I hope you understand what I am getting at as I dont really know how to explain it too well

[Show Me the Wire]

I would use the pars were the horse was competitive.

[Conquer]

I would use the pars were the horse was competitive.

But the thing with that is the horse could have been entered in a class it couldnt hang with the past 3-4 runs and lets say I use the most competitive figures but they were from 6 months ago. See what I mean?

Do you think it would be best to seek the closest class and distance and then use those figures or always just the last race figures?

[Show Me the Wire]

But the thing with that is the horse could have been entered in a class it couldnt hang with the past 3-4 runs and lets say I use the most competitive figures but they were from 6 months ago. See what I mean?

Do you think it would be best to seek the closest class and distance and then use those figures or always just the last race figures?

Your assumption for the question about class and time is what it is all about. That is what you have to figure out. Is the performance a result of class (quality of horses competed against) or form (physical condition). So the answer is there is no hard and fast rule.

[Conquer]

Do you feel that the run style has to do with the pars and should be compared separately? Or should I be looking at E1 E2 Late and Speed regardless of each run style.

[Show Me the Wire]

Do you feel that the run style has to do with the pars and should be compared separately?

Of course they are related, but running style is running style. However, you do not know what tatics the connections will use today.

I am not exactly comprehending what your are asking? Are you asking if the running style causes the pars or if the pars cause the running style? Pars, in my opinion, are used to objectify the intangible concept of class.

E1 and such is related to energy distribution. Again not sure about what you are asking.

[Conquer]

Do you feel that the run style has to do with the pars and should be compared separately?

Of course they are related, but running style is running style. However, you do not know what tatics the connections will use today.

I am not exactly comprehending what your are asking? Are you asking if the running style causes the pars or if the pars cause the running style? Pars, in my opinion, are used to objectify the intangible concept of class.

E1 and such is related to energy distribution. Again not sure about what you are asking.

What I mean is, track pars are broken down E1 E2 Late Speed. When looking ar a horse who lets say as an E run style, should I be comparing its last race E1 figure with the E1 track par and speed, leaving out E2 and Late because they are reserved for P and S horses.

[Show Me the Wire]

Okay. First I say you have to use all the pars. Second let's take your first example about the horse's last two races. Both races are in the same class, like competition.

Yes you always have to consider the last race.

In your example the last race, to me, shows the horse going off form if its E1 and E2 numbers were so far off, unless it had an excuse relating to a troubled trip or bounce factor off a tough last effort. Now remember, I said like kind competition too. The poor performance could have resulted because better than par horses ran in last race. Barring any of the above your scenario would indicate the horse is not a contender today.

It, seems like your looking for a mechanical application of the race pars to the horses actual performance. IMO not a wise thing to do.

There is no hard and fast rule, except to look at the whole.