View Full Version : Chicanery gone wrong
I'm surprised nobody has brought this race up from today, the 5th at Aqueduct. I will grant it was a poor field of one time winners. How in the world does the 5 horse go off the 2 to 1 favorite? The horse was a one time starter at lowly CharlesTown shipping into Aqueduct. He ran 4th, not close:
http://www.pacefigures.com/images/audible.jpg
Before answering, please watch the replay (head on) of his last race at CT. The little guy pointed this out to me, and picked him on Talking Horses, but there is no way that alone drove this horse to 2 to 1. There was a TON of alleged "smart money" on this horse that didn't turn out to be very smart.
hbeck
02-05-2009, 05:11 PM
Wow. I am schocked he went off at 2-1. Part of it was Andy's talking up of the horse and the other part the high trainer stats in similar moves.
MickJ26
02-05-2009, 05:14 PM
I'm surprised nobody has brought this race up from today, the 5th at Aqueduct. I will grant it was a poor field of one time winners. How in the world does the 5 horse go off the 2 to 1 favorite? The horse was a one time starter at lowly CharlesTown shipping into Aqueduct. He ran 4th, not close:
http://www.pacefigures.com/images/audible.jpg
Before answering, please watch the replay (head on) of his last race at CT. The little guy pointed this out to me, and picked him on Talking Horses, but there is no way that alone drove this horse to 2 to 1. There was a TON of alleged "smart money" on this horse that didn't turn out to be very smart.
Steve Crist brought it up today on his blog. Did the horse get stiffed in his first start?
Steve Crist brought it up today on his blog. Did the horse get stiffed in his first start?
It certainly appeared that way to me.
Bubba X
02-05-2009, 05:24 PM
The horse was not the favorite, but close second choice, according to pool totals on YB. She was strongly favored in the place pool and was no better than 4th "choice" in the show pool. She was also 4th "choice" in the p-3 and p-4 pools.
Someone thought she was a good thing. Oops.
aaron
02-05-2009, 05:26 PM
These type horses hardly ever win in NY,especially at 2-1. For what ever reason,once the crowd is in on it,they just don't win. I was with a few people and we were laughing at the price.If one of these wins at 2-1 or lower,I'll tip my hat and rip up my tickets.
the little guy
02-05-2009, 05:34 PM
Wow. I am schocked he went off at 2-1. Part of it was Andy's talking up of the horse and the other part the high trainer stats in similar moves.
I'm not that powerful ( if I was how could the 6th winner, who I also picked and talked up, pay $26? ) and neither are the trainer stats. This was an attempted betting coup.
The last horse this trainer ran in NY ( Feb 2002 ) came in off one poor showing at Delaware Park.....and was 4:5.
hbeck
02-05-2009, 05:45 PM
OK, Andy. Well either way it backfired for those involved.
the little guy
02-05-2009, 05:48 PM
OK, Andy. Well either way it backfired for those involved.
That it did!
Still a fun story to spice up a cold February day. Greatest game in the world.
I'm surprised nobody has brought this race up from today, the 5th at Aqueduct. I will grant it was a poor field of one time winners. How in the world does the 5 horse go off the 2 to 1 favorite? The horse was a one time starter at lowly CharlesTown shipping into Aqueduct. He ran 4th, not close:
http://www.pacefigures.com/images/audible.jpg
Before answering, please watch the replay (head on) of his last race at CT. The little guy pointed this out to me, and picked him on Talking Horses, but there is no way that alone drove this horse to 2 to 1. There was a TON of alleged "smart money" on this horse that didn't turn out to be very smart.
The filly ran well in her debut. She gallopped out strong after the wire. She showed signs in the race that an equipment adjustment was needed and sure enough they added blinker's this time. The winner of the race come back to win 2 ALW races and the place horse come back to win a MDN10K. The rest of the field except for one, have not run back just like this filly. However, this took place 3 months ago. It's amazing how she only had one published work going into this race, (a slow 3/8ths) if you want to believe this. Someone should check to see if this work was really on the 31st. I know it say's she worked on that day but was the workout added to the 31st a day later. Anyway, she's was highly touted in the CT area for this race and it sure wasn't because of that one published work and her debut. Regardless, the filly was certainly not placed well unless the connections were praying someone would bite. Why run in a 10KNW2L (15k purse) when there's a maiden 16k, (same purse) coming up in NY? Why not just run in a MSW (28k) or a Maiden 10K (purse 15k) at CT. So, many races to choose from and they opt for this race. On top of it, they take a shot and use a house rider that's not familiar with the horse. The jock that rode her at CT in her debut had 5 horses last night, so maybe he couldn't make the trip, but then again Renee has only let Sanchez ride one other horse in the last 10 year's. Hmmmm!
Best regards,
Joe
badcompany
02-06-2009, 08:51 AM
Seems like it was a delusional Owner who put a big win bet on the horse.
If you notice, even with the horse running out of the money, the exotics were very small. The 4th/5th race double paid way less than the parlay for the two races.
$2 Daily Double 7-6 9.30
$2 Exacta 6-9 16.40
$2 Trifecta 6-9-2 41.40
Winning Breeder: Ron Stolich Winning Owner: Mark J. Lewis Winning Trainer: Dominic G. Galluscio
ezrabrooks
02-06-2009, 09:09 AM
I would say she galloped out well...8 at the line, and then past the winner.
Ez
oddsmaven
02-06-2009, 09:47 AM
These type horses hardly ever win in NY,especially at 2-1. For what ever reason,once the crowd is in on it,they just don't win.....
I've seen plenty of horses over the years in NY with one try that have a bit of a mystery horse quality to them that get well bet and win...not always, witness this one, but they are in the long run, far from the worst bets you'll find.
aaron
02-06-2009, 10:00 AM
I've seen plenty of horses over the years in NY with one try that have a bit of a mystery horse quality to them that get well bet and win...not always, witness this one, but they are in the long run, far from the worst bets you'll find.
Horses that have a bit of mystery quality on occasion win in NY. Horses that seldom win are horses bet like yesterday's. The mystery is out of the equation once the horse is 2-1. Horses like yesterdays are among the worse bets you can make. A shot price on a horse shipping in from Charles Town. A maiden vs. winners.,with a bad trip at CT. When was the last time one of these horses won in NY at 2-1.
ryesteve
02-06-2009, 10:00 AM
Why not just run in a MSW (28k) or a Maiden 10K (purse 15k) at CT. Probably because they wanted to bet into a larger pool.
oddsmaven
02-06-2009, 10:25 AM
Horses that have a bit of mystery quality on occasion win in NY. Horses that seldom win are horses bet like yesterday's. The mystery is out of the equation once the horse is 2-1. Horses like yesterdays are among the worse bets you can make. A shot price on a horse shipping in from Charles Town. A maiden vs. winners.,with a bad trip at CT. When was the last time one of these horses won in NY at 2-1.
If you didn't consider that horse to be somewhat of an unknown factor (mystery horse), then there's not much I can say to "you" on that point...maidens have been known to defeat winners, so that's would be no source of amazement...this was N2L 10,000...there are numerous levels of maiden races that are stronger.
I don't think there are any, let alone a number of example comparisons just like this to find for you - win or lose (one maiden try at CT, trying NY "winners")....one may choose to view these things in a general way, as I do, although I certainly don't throw common sense out the window...if I were there, I would have respected the play on that particular one because there wasn't a lot of evidence on where she fit.
This was not a case of a horse overbet by handicappers, but rather an inside betting coup that failed...sorry, but I've seen enough horses at 2:1, 4:1, whatever, that won leaving people shaking their heads...I've seen a lot more that were surprisingly "dead on the board" that looked good on paper, but ran up the track.
badcompany
02-06-2009, 10:35 AM
The horse was not the favorite, but close second choice, according to pool totals on YB. She was strongly favored in the place pool and was no better than 4th "choice" in the show pool. She was also 4th "choice" in the p-3 and p-4 pools.
Someone thought she was a good thing. Oops.
This was what I call a three-favorite race. You had 3 horses all in the 2/1 - 5/2 range. Usually, when 2 out of the three come in 1-2, the exacta pays in the low to mid 20s. This exacta paid 16. So, clearly, that shipper didn't get the same exotic support that it got in the win pool.
badcompany
02-06-2009, 10:39 AM
This was not a case of a horse overbet by handicappers, but rather an inside betting coup that failed.
"Inside" as in the horse's connections, but, "outside" of the track. The real insiders (Dominic, Levine, Contessa) got the money, that race.
aaron
02-06-2009, 10:41 AM
Probably because they wanted to bet into a larger pool.
If they were smart,they probably could have bet a lot less and got the same return if the horse had won.
the little guy
02-06-2009, 11:01 AM
If they were smart,they probably could have bet a lot less and got the same return if the horse had won.
I think you are seriously discounting what can be bet off-track on NY versus CT.
ezrabrooks
02-06-2009, 11:57 AM
I think you are seriously discounting what can be bet off-track on NY versus CT.
So the Books were pushing the price down?
Ez
So the Books were pushing the price down?
Ez
That is also possible, but I think he was alluding to the fact that Aqueduct has a lot higher limits than Charles Town does at all offshore books.
Shemp Howard
02-06-2009, 11:10 PM
That horse was Bernie Madoff's best bet of the day. Half of the Upper West Side and Palm Beach was down on it.
:D
the little guy
02-07-2009, 12:04 AM
That horse was Bernie Madoff's best bet of the day. Half of the Upper West Side and Palm Beach was down on it.
:D
Thankfully, for me at least, Bernie lives on the Upper East Side.....not the Upper West.
highnote
02-07-2009, 05:59 AM
What were the betting totals on the betting exchanges? Maybe someone needed a low pari-mutuel price so they could lay it for a bigger amount?
It certainly appeared that way to me.
Hello CJ:
The filly was not stiffed in her debut.
Hello CJ:
The filly was not stiffed in her debut.
That is always subjective. I'll put it this way, it was apparent from a lot of things they did not want to win that race. No lasix, no betting action whatsoever, and no real effort by the jockey to ever get into the race.
Anybody that bet on the first at CT today knows why this is the greatest game in the world, 5 to 1 on this horse.
rokitman
02-22-2009, 05:18 PM
Horse at GP yesterday, Presto Chango, clipped heels and lost his jock in his first career race at 5.2:1. 5/1 ML this time but gets bet to even money, and romps. A lesson to those that think the ML matters a lot.
the little guy
02-22-2009, 08:31 PM
Horse at GP yesterday, Presto Chango, clipped heels and lost his jock in his first career race at 5.2:1. 5/1 ML this time but gets bet to even money, and romps. A lesson to those that think the ML matters a lot.
I don't want to be to harsh on the ML at Gulfstream.....but I will say that Presto Chango did a LOT to suggest he could really run before losing his rider in his debut. If you take a look at that race I think you will agree.
The only way he wasn't going to be a very short price in that race was if the $2.6 million Pletcher firster got pounded. The rest of the field was hopeless.
I agree with you that the ML has next to no bearing on the final odds.
vBulletin® v3.8.9, Copyright ©2000-2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.