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View Full Version : TM-SR's for 3yo's....& 2yo debuts....


LottaKash
02-03-2009, 04:56 PM
This is mostly for the newbies and wannabee winners in Harness-Racing........

Awhile back I posted this, and would like to re-hash my way of looking at 3yo's making their first few starts, and about 2yo's, making their debuts and what I use in the beginning of their (2yo's) careers.......Others may have some more to add to this, but I will keep it simple, and it stands as a guideline as to what I look for when searching for angles on the freshemen and sophomore hoss'......

When using the Trackmaster Speed Ratings for 3yo's, I always like to see a horse get a nice rest from their 2yo seasons, at least a couple of months anyway.....Of course you would like to see a 3yo that was trying as a 2yo, and had good finishing ability, that way you will have a fair idea about this horse's desire to race and win as a 3yo.......When the 3yo's come out, I try to get a look at as many lines from his 2yo season, and I will use (within reason) the highest Speed Rating that shows......and I add 10-Points to it, that's it, simple......So, say a horse ran a personal High-SR of 71 then add the 10-points to that number, and believe it or not, most horses will race to that number within 5-starts......After those 5-starts, then anything goes, and perhaps this horse was just a flash-in the pan type as a 2yo or he is still hurting and not as race ready as you might think....This is just a general rule of course......But say, you see a horse that was running the 80's and higher, well, you just know that this horse bears watching, and will soon be racing in the 90's or or even higher, and no matter where this horse races, any horse that can give you 90's or better is a better than average horse.....It also helps to have that SR at a size track that is similar to the size track that he is racing on tonite...This not necessary tho, as any size track that he took his SR on will do, but it will give you a more clearer picture of what you may expect from him soon......And if trained right, they will give you that new SR real soon after they start.......

Also, with the young ones 2's and 3's, I always like a horse coming off of 2-or more Qualifiers as well.......I especially like it when they like to lead in one of those qualifers, and/OR have a good solid last 1/2 and or a fast last 1/4.......If you can find one like that, very often if his projected SR is better than what is in his race tonite, you may be onto a really nice score.....They don't pop up like popcorn, and you must stay alert, as the crowd often enough, falls in love with something else, and will forsake a horse like this.......You never know when they will show up....So, you must address every 2yo line and SR to get an idea of how a horse will be coming up as a 3yo........

After awhile when all the 3yo's horses are all out and about and making their way in the conditiions, this slant will lose most of it's appeal and power....Tho, in later times in the year, you may get a late bloomer just getting back to the races, from his 2yo season, and this will pop up ,so stay alert thruout the year, ya never know......

Interesting enough, just this past fall, I read several books by Andrew Beyer and the use of his speed ratings, and I grinned when he stated something along these lines about the 10+ speed rating improvements of 3yo's after given some time off to mature......
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As for the 2yo's, it is often a guessing game in the beginning when the beginners are making their debuts.......The Qualifier thing is good here as well.....Good last 1/4's in the Qua's are a plus....But, you must remember, these horses for the most part are green, and depending on the trainer, they are usually a work in progress......Trainer's are always tinkering with the young ones, with equipment, racing manners, gate manners, bits, bridles etc.......So what to do.....I always like a horse with some good gate speed, not a lot, but just to show that this horse can leave for a good spot in a race....In fact, unless a 2yo is very precocious (talented/classy), I really do not like to see monster early fractions so early in the year....The top trainers are with me on this....Last 1/4's in the first few races count for a whole lot, and I always like a horse, no matter what the early pace was like, giving a big strong brush in a solid and quick last 1/4....A Good fast last 1/4, raises my eyebrows when it comes to the 2yo's....After a few starts under all the horse's belts, you will begin to see progress as the amount of starts move on......Still, when handicapping conventionally for everyday race horses, I like a horse with good tactical early speed, but with the 2's, for me, it is just the opposite that I like to see, meaning a good last 1/4 first, then a good 1/4 from the 1/2 to the 3/4's and then a good middle half, and then a good first 1/2 and 1/4, generally in that order of improvement.....This way a horse will tell you how he is doing as he progresses along, and he will not be hurt any.....You will see many 2yo's that blast to fast 1/2's and blazing last 1/4's, and then you will see them do nothing next race and bounce, or even not be around for awhile, due to "too much too soon".......Have you ever bet on a 2yo, only to see him break stride in a race, so go to his last race or two, and look at the fractions, often times it is a case of TMTS......

Well, those are my thoughts on this, maybe it will help your game a bit, by giving some thought to this........Good Luck with the young one's.......They SUCK, and they almost never do what you want them to do.......:D :D :D

best,

LottaKash
02-05-2009, 03:09 AM
Yesterday I tried to pass along a few tips that have helped me zero in on some nice opportunities that pop up from time to time, regarding lightly raced 2 & 3yo's...And, the emphasis on "Lightly" raced, as when the season wears on, these little tips will lose much of their initial impact, so it is important that I pay attention when they are just getting started.......

This time of the year, you will begin to see many 3yo's making their seasonal debuts, and that is why I thought I might bring this up early this year......

I thought it might be good to do a more "Real Time" evaluation today....

At the Meadowlands, tonite, Thurs. 2-05-09, a few races contain some 3yo's that are either making their first starts or have only a couple of races under the little belts so far this season..... I will try to point out some of what I had been saying in my previous post......Perhaps that may give you a better handle of what I was trying to convey and what you may look for... And who knows, It might lead you to a winner or two because of it.......That is my hope and intent, at least.....:cool:
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Please keep in mind, that these are not selections only demostrations, but you CAN draw your own conclusions based on some of these premises..........

4th @M1 "Junior Trendsetter" series starts, 3yo's nw2/LT or $20K/LT


Light Up the Sky...Notice that he is making his 3d start of the year, and last year (2yo) he had a TM-SR of 77 which would give him a projected SR of 87 for his upcoming races and notice too that he is almost there running an 83 & 84 in his last 2-races (reminder; most 3yo's will, if in shape to do so, will run to their projected new SR within about 5-starts, if not well, it could be anything or even a fizzle horse, and when you do enough of them you will see who are the fizzles)
Explosive Strike...ran a 70 L/yr and now a 66, had 2-qua's before that but he banged into a 1:25 3/4's in that first start, should do better in slower fractions...he should do an 80
Comprehensive...cannot say anything about him, only 2d lifetime start..
Promiscuous...ran a 76 ly, and an 85 in his first start this year, on schedule...did his proj. 86..
Shark Watch...no starts last year, best this year is 78 ...
Choose to Believe...left off in May-08 with a 77, and since his proj. 87 still has not come as he has only done a 71 so far with only cheap form, he may be a fizzle horse...
Yanzhou...ran an 83 LY...had 3qua's then his 1st start last week ran a 79 fin 2d in that one...has some work to do but with a proj of 93...He bears watching.....and has some strong pace numbers last week to boot.
Glad to Be Back...ran an 86 LY, and proj's to a 96, a fast number to be sure........had 2-qua's and the last one, was in a last 3/4 of 1:26 and a last 1/4 of 26:2...Watch this guy, I will......He won 4 of 8, and a 1:54 LY..
Crazy Ralist...no comments nothing....
In Over My Head...ran a 70 LY. and in his 3d start, ran an 81, on target..
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I was going to do a few more races, but I just got tired....Well, anyway you have the picture...If you do these things you will get a new and maybe better feel about the 3yos and how you can a spot a good one before the crowd catches on, and they will in no time at all......You gotta be there first to get the KASH......Good Luck with this......

best,