Elimination Guidlines

[mrroyboy]

Hi Guys
I think we need to make a good list of throwouts. I believe if you can throw out many horses or races the winners will fall into your lap.
How about posting some of your guidelines to eliminate horses. I also think a list like that will help newbies on this site. What do you think?

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

One of the most powerful elimination rules you can use is for beginners to avoid any horse that does not show a win within the last five races for the purpose of picking winners.It sounds very simplistic but I read this statement 30 years ago and it still (imo) carries some percentage advantage.

[Capper Al]

Here's good article on eliminations:

http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT010126.htm

Eliminations work for me.

[Jake]

Three no brainers:

1. Eliminate any last maiden winner that can't meet 2nd call par in current race. This is equally true for any horse making a class jump at the same distance.

2. Any trainer with a win % under 10% who won last time with the same horse.

3. Any horse coming off 45 days or more layoff with a poor layoff trainer.

These are automatic throwouts for me, with few regrets.


Jake

[Jake]

Sorry, I didn't see this was in the harness section. No clue what works here.

Jake

[njcurveball]

You have to be savvy enough at the track you are playing to understand which horse is a "go" today.

For example, at the Meadowlands Don Harmon is still out there trying but is not a play in the win hole. Larry Stalbaum has returned to Yonkers but he also was a non contender in the win hole.

Guys like Pat Lachance, Jeff Dauplaise or Mike Vanderkamp may beat you every once in a while but they will burn too much of your money to worry about it.

Your better bet though is to go through the race starting with best driver at the track and moving through the field figuring out what their trip will be and how it will influence the other horses.

For example, again at the Meadowlands, Tetrick or Sears has a horse in the middle of the pack who is not leaving. Say #5, now you have to look at #6, #7, or even #8 to be able to pick up that horses cover.

At smaller tracks, it is even more about the trips and you can eliminate many horses from outside post positions.

Also look at negative drops, even though those horses will beat you sometimes, they burn a ton of money.

A good example from Saturday night was Palone Ranger dropping from the Presidential to a NW15000 which is at least a 3 class drop. But he missed a week and was a no try from the outside in a race where the two outside horses in front of him finished 1st and 3rd. He also would have the stigma of being "over driven" by Sears as the even money favorite.

There are really no hard and fast rules for eliminations, but many logical rules at a mile track.

At a half mile track, you probably could get many winners just by eliminating post positions greater than half the field size + 1. For example, 8 horse field, eliminate anything outside the 5 post.

I have always found that no matter how crafty my eliminations, the juicy priced winners always manage to appear in them and they are logical after the race.

Good luck to you!

[Ray2000]

IMHO

I was a bit reluctant to post this reply because there are so many exceptions but IMHO

"Throw Out"
...1. Any horse with 2 or more break lines in the past 8 pari-mutuel performances.
...2. Any horse who made a break in a recent Qualifier with a average or good rated driver.
...3. Any horse who made a break in his last start. (He will be driven very cautiously so they don't have Re-Qualify)
.............Exceptions for off track in last race or expected off-track surface today

As a longshot player, I'm quick to toss out contenders when they have any tendency to mis-behave, but like I mentioned above, there are many exceptions to this "rule". The rewards are infrequent but huge when it hits.

[camfella]

Roy- I would first say,hold your horses there Roy. Yes,you should be able to throw out 3 horses every race,but unless you want the favorite in every race,dont necessarily throw all the "bad" ones out. I once played a horse who was 1-47 lifetime,that was 50-1,he won,do I do it often...no. My point being that yes I would play very few 1-47 horses but there are always exceptions. Each race needs to be thought out,can you throw the 10 horse out at Woodbine?? not always, he has no speed? yes throw him out,If you see my reasoning. I would practice trying to throw out 3 horses per race for a week, how many finished in the money,if more than 5 finish first or second,why? Everyone has their own method. It's hard to throw Tetrick,Sears,Pierce out of a race at M1, lately it's just a difficult a decision to throw Jody,Mario or Paul Mac out at Woodbine, so driver ability is a major factor, the horses form is the other. The most common single repeating line in the last race of tonight's winner,is winning the last race in the thousands of possible race lines,but it is a low percentage. If you instead include every horse that has finished within 2 lengths of the winner in his last,this is a very high repeating factor in tonight's winner,but encompasses many more horses.
My top 2 throw outs are horses who have not been within 5 lengths of the winner at the stretch call and finish in the last 3 races at the same class,to compete a horse needs to be close to the pace early,or come into the flow closing to within 5 lengths ,at the stretch call ,to compete at all.
The second throw out is a consistently lower speed rating in the last 5 races,who is not dropping in class or had any trainer or driver changes.
The ones I hesitate and look at more thoroughly is a horse with any type of positive change,driver,trainer,medication,post position,class drop,any horse with a more positive effort in his last,involving an early race or move to within
a few lengths of the lead before the stretch call.
To me it's a narrative story line,where you "talk" it out,jealously hold on to any possible in the money finisher with good value. Over time you will come up with "your" method,and if it works ,do what works for you. CamFella

[Ray2000]

The good people (clocker, estimator) at..handicapping_harness

http://respecki.typepad.com/handicapping_harness/

Are posting Al Stanley's news letters from yesteryear. The most recent of these ancient papers has some good info on exceptions to the eliminations "rule"

You might want to check it out.

[njcurveball]

Thanks for the link, interesting stuff. :ThmbUp: