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View Full Version : Was the outside post and weights the reasons Westside Bernie


onefast99
01-31-2009, 07:15 PM
and Beethoven ran poorly today? Westside made a decent run after Trujillo went to the whip early but still had no kick in the lane. The connections say this one loves more distance? Beethoven finished a 1/2 length behind Westside Bernie and then it was 5 back to the rest of this not going to the Derby horses. Anyone think that the post positions really made the difference in this race for either of these horses? Both seemed to have decent trips.

Robert Fischer
01-31-2009, 09:24 PM
and Beethoven ran poorly today? Westside made a decent run after Trujillo went to the whip early but still had no kick in the lane. The connections say this one loves more distance? Beethoven finished a 1/2 length behind Westside Bernie and then it was 5 back to the rest of this not going to the Derby horses. Anyone think that the post positions really made the difference in this race for either of these horses? Both seemed to have decent trips.

sure, you definitly have to take the post into consideration. The replay should be up tomorrow on Ntra.com or kentuckyderby.com. Watch em run to that first turn and note how wide they went and how much momentum they may have lost.
Did that initial wide turn force them to be wide for the 2nd turn as well ? Where were the top 2?

hoovesupsideyourhe
01-31-2009, 09:28 PM
you have to be a very good horse to win outside the 7 hole at gulfstream at 1mile and 1/18th.. big brown and barbero are the only two..or be at least much better than the rest..

Dahoss9698
01-31-2009, 10:20 PM
I have only seen the race twice but I thought Beethoven ran awful. I actually thought West Side Bernie ran very well though. The winner and he would be the two I would want out of this race.

Grits
01-31-2009, 11:10 PM
Maybe you need to go back and look at the race again? And the chart at each point of call?

Of course, I could be wrong here, but I can't understand how you are able to conclude Beethoven ran awful, when he was just off the pace throughout, starting from post 10. Noting too, he'd been off 63 days, last running Nov.29th. That alone, can find a horse needing a race. He tired at the top of the stretch, still finishing 4th.

I don't believe John Ward's goal was (or is) the Jan. 31st, 150k, 1 1/8th Holy Bull. Matter of fact, I'd bet on it.

McPeek's Danger To Society threw in the clunker, not lifting a hoof at odds on.

I have only seen the race twice but I thought Beethoven ran awful. I actually thought West Side Bernie ran very well though. The winner and he would be the two I would want out of this race.

GPneighbor
02-01-2009, 08:58 AM
I would not be discouraged with the race that Beethoven ran in the Hutcheson. The horse looked terrific in the Paddock and seems to warm up well before the race. The Jockey tried to send him from the gate but he was caught three wide the whole race. The horse made a run on the turn but he had little left after that. (The replay is on ESPN.) Another reason I wouldn’t be too critical of the horse is because Gulfstream is going through a period when the inside/speed bias is very strong. The next race will be more a true indicator of the type of horse he is. With a race under his belt and an honest track I think he will improve.

Dahoss9698
02-01-2009, 11:33 AM
Maybe you need to go back and look at the race again? And the chart at each point of call?

Of course, I could be wrong here, but I can't understand how you are able to conclude Beethoven ran awful, when he was just off the pace throughout, starting from post 10. Noting too, he'd been off 63 days, last running Nov.29th. That alone, can find a horse needing a race. He tired at the top of the stretch, still finishing 4th.

I don't believe John Ward's goal was (or is) the Jan. 31st, 150k, 1 1/8th Holy Bull. Matter of fact, I'd bet on it.

McPeek's Danger To Society threw in the clunker, not lifting a hoof at odds on.

I went back and watched it again. Maybe awful isn't the correct word. However, considering he sat a relatively good trip, he really had nothing left late. He was wide though, on a day where it looks like speed and being inside was at an advantage, so I'll take back the awful comment. I do maintain that West Side Bernie would be the one I would want between he and beethoven. At least he put in a strong run on the turn and was coming again at the end. With a better trip he wins the race.

Congrats on recognizing that Ward's ultimate goal isn't the Holy Bull. Either way, if he's like most John Ward horses, he probably has about 3 races left in him this year. So I wouldn't count on him being a factor Derby Day. Matter of fact, I'd bet on it.

Grits
02-01-2009, 12:02 PM
You're right, awful was not the correct word, glad you decided to take back one of your put downs. I'm sure John Ward will lose sleep over your other one.

I don't accept your congrats. You can put it wherever you like.

Dahoss9698
02-01-2009, 12:56 PM
You're right, awful was not the correct word, glad you decided to take back one of your put downs. I'm sure John Ward will lose sleep over your other one.

I don't accept your congrats. You can put it wherever you like.


I really wish I could have seen one of the first drafts of this, instead of what you ended up with. Do you think I hurt Beethoven's feelings? I hope not. I just didn't think he ran well. Not as bad as I originally thought (I was too busy counting all the money I made in the race), but still, not exactly the kind of effort that gets my pulse racing. I would put the link up to where I said I liked the winner of the race, so as to not be accused of redboarding but you can't read it, you got kicked off that board.

Grits
02-01-2009, 01:46 PM
And with that, let me go back to my corner and hang my head in shame.
Derby Trail.

DaHoss, you're a sharp and classy man. Touche' and all that.
First draft.

CincyHorseplayer
02-02-2009, 02:18 PM
I would not be discouraged with the race that Beethoven ran in the Hutcheson. The horse looked terrific in the Paddock and seems to warm up well before the race. The Jockey tried to send him from the gate but he was caught three wide the whole race. The horse made a run on the turn but he had little left after that. (The replay is on ESPN.) Another reason I wouldn’t be too critical of the horse is because Gulfstream is going through a period when the inside/speed bias is very strong. The next race will be more a true indicator of the type of horse he is. With a race under his belt and an honest track I think he will improve.

That won't fly for Saturday at Gulfstream Park.Here's what the day looked like for the 6 dirt races(all),PP's,comments;

post positionss-12,2(sprints)-7,4,5,2(routes)

comments

-off rail
-3w
-chased
-off rail
-rail
-outside rival

What was going on that day had more to do with it being highly spped favoring.Here were the 1st--2nd call positions;

1st call--2nd call

-lead--lead
-4/1.5--lead

-2/1.5--lead
-2/1--2/0.5
-8/2.5--lead
-2/0.5--2/head

Overwhelming speed bias.

Beethoven had perfect position;

5/2.5--3/1

..while chasing a a horse loose a length at the 1st call which would explain more.

West Side Bernie on the otherhand deserves great credit for his performance;

10/7.5--8/4

....he has had 2 tough luck trips in a row.One on the tight turns of Delta Downs and this one chasing a loose horse on an extremely speed favoring track.Haven't looked at his figs or dosage index but this guy,with his big finish will it it's chance somewhere on the Derby trail.Can't wait to see it.

OTM Al
02-02-2009, 02:38 PM
I thought Bernie did a very nice job and Beethoven did fine as well. Neither are the second coming, but I would still rate the both of them better than the rest of that field. That track really should employ a second start/finish line for those 1 1/8 m races.

CincyHorseplayer
02-02-2009, 11:46 PM
I thought Bernie did a very nice job and Beethoven did fine as well. Neither are the second coming, but I would still rate the both of them better than the rest of that field. That track really should employ a second start/finish line for those 1 1/8 m races.

It is still just February.I didn't llok at the rating the race got just yet or Bernie's for the Delta Jackpot,but with two against the grain runs I'd say he could improve by a significant amount.

OTM Al
02-04-2009, 11:09 AM
D$%^&it, there goes a great bet against opportunity....

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/49068.htm

Do hope he'll be fine and able to come back ok

CincyHorseplayer
02-04-2009, 02:43 PM
D$%^&it, there goes a great bet against opportunity....

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/article/49068.htm

Do hope he'll be fine and able to come back ok

Don't worry Al,with his off-pace style and those last 2 races getting Beyers just under 100,he'll definitely get a chance to mow them down during this Triple Crown chase.If the biased tracks project him to improve a few lengths in the right setting,he might be a 102-104 type runner and it's early.

OTM Al
02-04-2009, 03:53 PM
Don't worry Al,with his off-pace style and those last 2 races getting Beyers just under 100,he'll definitely get a chance to mow them down during this Triple Crown chase.If the biased tracks project him to improve a few lengths in the right setting,he might be a 102-104 type runner and it's early.

Do you mean Bernie or Saratoga Sinner? Bernie I kinda like a little bit and thought he did nothing to disgrace himself given the setup he faced. Him I think we might still be able to get a decent price on after finishing 3rd. Now I really wanted Saratoga Sinner to stick around as the bet against next time as he would be overbet after winning that race but he's out now for some time

Dahoss9698
02-28-2009, 07:20 PM
Another big effort out of Beethoven today. :lol:

Valuist
03-01-2009, 12:10 PM
He's a rat.

point given
03-01-2009, 12:26 PM
I'm not giving up on him yet, although its tough not to. Gulf played to speed and he needs a track he can close on. I would be interested in backing him at higher odds next out around 2 turns, maybe on poly.

Valuist
03-01-2009, 12:30 PM
Maybe Beethoven needs Kentucky medication. He clearly isn't as good out of that state.

Dahoss9698
03-01-2009, 12:52 PM
Maybe Beethoven needs Kentucky medication. He clearly isn't as good out of that state.

Maybe he just needs those dream trips he got in KY also.

Robert Fischer
03-01-2009, 01:04 PM
Beethoven's a nice horse, he just isn't up to 3yo graded stakes class level.

He has the right kind of style and ability to be winning races at a lower class. Unfortunately if he gets the class drop he needs, he will be overbet anyway. Hes a 7f to a mile type of horse. He has some options such as synthetic races, although Keeneland should too challenging at allowance or better, and the Lanes End at turfway is too far. There are also some ungraded stakes he could shoot for. Allowance at turfway seems about right :blush:.

In the Holy Bull he raced against the bias, wide into the 1st turn, and then had to try to tackle 2 horses who had been riding with the bias. Beyond his distance limits, he was done by the 2nd turn and was being hard ridden, but still stayed on enough to battle for third.

In the FOY ridden well off the pace, and came home in a race best 48.31 for the last 4 furlongs.

onefast99
03-01-2009, 01:07 PM
Beethoven's a nice horse, he just isn't up to 3yo graded stakes class level.

He has the right kind of style and ability to be winning races at a lower class. Unfortunately if he gets the class drop he needs, he will be overbet anyway. Hes a 7f to a mile type of horse. He has some options such as synthetic races, although Keeneland should too challenging at allowance or better, and the Lanes End at turfway is too far. There are also some ungraded stakes he could shoot for.

In the Holy Bull he raced against the bias, wide into the 1st turn, and then had to try to tackle 2 horses who had been riding with the bias. Beyond his distance limits, he was done by the 2nd turn and was being hard ridden, but still stayed on enough to battle for third.

In the FOY ridden well off the pace, and came home in a race best 48.31 for the last 4 furlongs.
Yesterdays Fountain of Youth run at a one turn mile created a fast pace and JR just sat off of it and came home a winner. I didnt see any serious derby contenders in this field.

Robert Fischer
03-01-2009, 01:10 PM
Yesterdays Fountain of Youth run at a one turn mile created a fast pace and JR just sat off of it and came home a winner. I didnt see any serious derby contenders in this field.
agreed, I think Quality Road could be tough in the Florida Derby if he is lone speed from a decent post. JoJo will basically have to run really big at a 1 1/8th to shake the tag of him being more of a closing sprinter/miler.

Dahoss9698
03-01-2009, 02:06 PM
Beethoven's a nice horse, he just isn't up to 3yo graded stakes class level.

He has the right kind of style and ability to be winning races at a lower class. Unfortunately if he gets the class drop he needs, he will be overbet anyway. Hes a 7f to a mile type of horse. He has some options such as synthetic races, although Keeneland should too challenging at allowance or better, and the Lanes End at turfway is too far. There are also some ungraded stakes he could shoot for. Allowance at turfway seems about right :blush:.

In the Holy Bull he raced against the bias, wide into the 1st turn, and then had to try to tackle 2 horses who had been riding with the bias. Beyond his distance limits, he was done by the 2nd turn and was being hard ridden, but still stayed on enough to battle for third.

In the FOY ridden well off the pace, and came home in a race best 48.31 for the last 4 furlongs.

:bang:

onefast99
03-01-2009, 07:11 PM
Does anyone have any stats on the 1 1/8th mile races at Gulfstream thus far this year for the outside post positions. I think last year Big Brown was the first to win from the 12 post correct?

Valuist
03-01-2009, 07:46 PM
Does anyone have any stats on the 1 1/8th mile races at Gulfstream thus far this year for the outside post positions. I think last year Big Brown was the first to win from the 12 post correct?

I thought Barbaro and Big Brown were the only ones to win from the 12 hole since the track was reconfigured.

Valuist
03-01-2009, 07:50 PM
Maybe he just needs those dream trips he got in KY also.

Consider how loaded with speed the FoY was, all the closers had dream setups.