What A Difference 4 Days Make

[misscashalot]

Here is something I posted yesterday at another site. I added only 2 words. They are "at Aqueduct". I am interested in your opinion.

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So much for Morning Lines.

The oddsmaker should not make any horse's Morning Line less than Evens.

Let's look at Mr Fantasy. Wednesday was a snow day at Aqueduct and was canceled. Mr F was entered in the 8th and the ML for him was an incredible 1/5. Idiocy. The main competition in that 7 horse field was the second ML choice Legal Consent at ML 4/1. Third ML choice at 12-1 was Vinnie Van Go. The outside ML horses were 50-1, 50-1 and 30-1. The distance scheduled was 6f.

Now 4 days later the same race is being run in Sundays 7th. The competition is a bit different than Wednesdays as a few horses are added that have even less competitive value than those they replaced in this 10 horse field. The field still has Legal Consent, this time again the second ML choice at a higher ML 6-1,and Vinnie V G again at 12-1 the co-third ML choice with another. But now Mr F is only half the opinion at ML 2/5. Still idiocy. The outside ML horses are 50-1, 30-1, 30-1, 20-1 and 20-1. In other words the competition in Sundays race hasn't been upgraded, just more warm bodies. The distance scheduled is 1-1/16. No horse was upgraded with the distance change, so it's not as if this change of distance, in the eys of the oddsmaker, gave any other horse an advantage.

I know what we all know about odds having to approx a certain number, and that someone can retort this posting answering that the more horses in a race will effect the ML odds, and there should be a spread. But from 1/5 to 2/5. That's an 100% decrease in relative chance.

The question here is this: Is Mr Fantasy less a value in this adjusted field; 100% so?
I think not...so what value is a ML of 1/5 or 2/5. None.

Campo (If I'm incorrect here someone please correct me), if that's who's making the line, is proving that his ML's of 1/5 or 2/5 are meaningless, and in fact is doing the betting public no favors by unduly effecting the actual betting odds.

[Bubba X]

Here is something I posted yesterday at another site. I added only 2 words. They are "at Aqueduct". I am interested in your opinion.

###

So much for Morning Lines.

The oddsmaker should not make any horse's Morning Line less than Evens.

Let's look at Mr Fantasy. Wednesday was a snow day at Aqueduct and was canceled. Mr F was entered in the 8th and the ML for him was an incredible 1/5. Idiocy. The main competition in that 7 horse field was the second ML choice Legal Consent at ML 4/1. Third ML choice at 12-1 was Vinnie Van Go. The outside ML horses were 50-1, 50-1 and 30-1. The distance scheduled was 6f.

Now 4 days later the same race is being run in Sundays 7th. The competition is a bit different than Wednesdays as a few horses are added that have even less competitive value than those they replaced in this 10 horse field. The field still has Legal Consent, this time again the second ML choice at a higher ML 6-1,and Vinnie V G again at 12-1 the co-third ML choice with another. But now Mr F is only half the opinion at ML 2/5. Still idiocy. The outside ML horses are 50-1, 30-1, 30-1, 20-1 and 20-1. In other words the competition in Sundays race hasn't been upgraded, just more warm bodies. The distance scheduled is 1-1/16. No horse was upgraded with the distance change, so it's not as if this change of distance, in the eys of the oddsmaker, gave any other horse an advantage.

I know what we all know about odds having to approx a certain number, and that someone can retort this posting answering that the more horses in a race will effect the ML odds, and there should be a spread. But from 1/5 to 2/5. That's an 100% decrease in relative chance.

The question here is this: Is Mr Fantasy less a value in this adjusted field; 100% so?
I think not...so what value is a ML of 1/5 or 2/5. None.

Campo (If I'm incorrect here someone please correct me), if that's who's making the line, is proving that his ML's of 1/5 or 2/5 are meaningless, and in fact is doing the betting public no favors by unduly effecting the actual betting odds.

Personally, I disagree with your premise. I do not believe morning lines have any measurable impact on actual odds.

[JustRalph]

I think the Line Maker really didn't care........... he made him the big fav either way........although I see your point.

Pick 3 starting with Mr F

Race 7
Mr F :10:

Race 8
Chocolate Pop :3:

Race 9
ALL

11 bucks ?

[Cash_McCool]

Mr. Fantasy is probably running in the Dancing Count S. down at Laurel on Saturday anyway. 3/5 ML

[misscashalot]

This reply has nothing to do with my POV that the oddsmaker does influence the betting publics action. This is just a comment if Mr F runs at Laurel in an open stakes

Here is a New York Bred who only just broke his maiden in restricted company and is yet to run out of New York State conditions. NW1NY, NW2NY and then some soft stakes. I don't know the owners motives, so some could say, keep your thoughts to yourself. But here goes anyway. Are they doing this, so far, one race wonder any favors by moving him up into an open stakes to learn his business? The horse, at this time, is worth more than the increase in purse. Bad business decision I think.

[The Hawk]

Your premise is wrong. Odds of 1/5 reflect an 83.3% chance of winning. 2/5 is 71.4%, so it's not nearly a 100% decrease in relative chance.

The extra distance does affect the grade, since the horse in question is unproven at 1 1/6 miles. The wide post in the bigger field is another factor. And the fact that there are more horses in the race plays into it. Moving the favorite from 1/5 to 2/5 gave the ML maker (who I think is Eric Donovan) 12 more points to play with (83 to 71).

There is a big difference between the two races, and moving him up on the line was the right move.

[ryesteve]

moving him up on the line was the right move.Good math, and good analysis :ThmbUp:

[Cash_McCool]

This reply has nothing to do with my POV that the oddsmaker does influence the betting publics action. This is just a comment if Mr F runs at Laurel in an open stakes

Here is a New York Bred who only just broke his maiden in restricted company and is yet to run out of New York State conditions. NW1NY, NW2NY and then some soft stakes. I don't know the owners motives, so some could say, keep your thoughts to yourself. But here goes anyway. Are they doing this, so far, one race wonder any favors by moving him up into an open stakes to learn his business? The horse, at this time, is worth more than the increase in purse. Bad business decision I think.

And the 2 horses which were closest to him in that race (Driven by Solar? and Strong Impact) came back to run lousy races against a suspect group of NYB maidens on MLK day. Gotta try to beat this horse at zip to 5 down at LRL today. It's Leg A of the Magna 5 as well.

[oddsmaven]

Misscashalot,

There is a ton of nonsense in your post...The Hawk diid an expert job pointing out much of it and he is absolutely correct...though if you use the 16% take, the % of money on 1:5 vs 2:5 is $70 out of every $100 bet vs $60 out of every $100 - that's far from "double"...and for that matter, in the program the next increment after 1:5 is 2:5 (there's no 3:10), so he bumped it up just one slot...and as The Hawk said, the move to the 10 hole on the inner and change to a route can make a big difference, as well as extra horses even if they are 12/20:1 shots...and Donovan is the linemaker, as he thought.

Nothing wrong with listing a horse that short - the task is to project what is expected and if the rare situation calls for it, he should put it.

[Cash_McCool]

Mr. Fantasy scratched out of the Laurel Stakes Race.

[startngate]

Obviously the OP has never made a morning line.

The move from a 7 horse field to a 10 horse field would be enough to move the odds on the horse in question from 1/5 to 2/5 alone.

A morning line is supposed to mathematically 'add up' to 100+takeout, but many oddsmakers use 120 or 125 points out of habit. Here's the scale for those who are interested:

Odds | Points
1/9 | 90.00
1/5 | 83.33
2/5 | 71.43
3/5 | 62.50
4/5 | 55.56
1-1 | 50.00
6/5 | 45.50
7/5 | 41.67
8/5 | 38.46
9/5 | 35.71
2-1 | 33.33
5/2 | 28.57
3-1 | 25.00
7/2 | 22.22
4-1 | 20.00
9/2 | 18.18
5-1 | 16.67
6-1 | 14.29
7-1 | 12.50
8-1 | 11.11
9-1 | 10.00
10-1 | 9.09
12-1 | 7.69
15-1 | 6.25
20-1 | 4.76
30-1 | 3.23
50-1 | 1.96


As Hawk mentioned, the move from 1/5 to 2/5 gives the oddsmaker about 12 more points to use to cover the other three horses in the race or adjust for the competition.

As many others have pointed out here, and in other posts on the M/L ... the goal of the morning line is to estimate what the final odds will be. If the oddsmaker believes the horse is going to be bet down below even money, then I will argue he/she has the obligation to say so in the line.

Before anyone decides to bash a morning line oddsmaker they should always look at the final odds of the race. The oddsmaker is never going to be exactly right, but they should be in the ballpark if they are doing a good job.