S-bred capping-Where I learned

[melman]

Bob (Pandy) Pandolfo has a nice article on the ustrotting.com web site. In it he talks about the two books by Steve Chaplin from which I took my capping lessons. I think many here may find it interesting. BTW Pandy mentions that he may write a new book of his own soon. Well Bob get to it man, I think you would be able to sell quite a few copies just from PA harness site members. :)

From Pandy's article.basic: first identify the "in shape" horses in each race. He did this by comparing "pre-stretch" energy, to "stretch endurance". He used a basic point system to analyze each horse's performance.

He was not a speed handicapper, or so he said, but, speed played an important part in his handicapping. Rather than use the final time, Chaplin compared a horse's final quarter to its pre-stretch energy output. For example, if a horse used little energy during the first three quarters, he expected the horse to finish fast. If the horse didn't finish fast, it was not in shape. This horse would be eliminated from consideration. Chaplin reasoned that the last quarter was the greatest indicator of a horse's shape, or endurance, because it’s usually the only quarter in which a horse tries to go as fast as he can.
http://www.ustrotting.com/handicapping/pandolfo/pandy.cfm

[Ray2000]

Seems like we took the same course :) coupled with Al Stanley precepts.

My speed ratings are calculated using the horses final time, adjusted for racing wide in turns, track variance, post (corrected for trailer), track speed rating, and small corrections for pace and driver.

I do the same for the final quarter time (no post adjustment but corrected for lengths behind change) and the ADD the final time and 4thQ time together. This addition accounts for the pace.

Best total time wins this part of the rating factors.

[LottaKash]

I am from the "Al Stanley" school of Form as well......It would do a player a great service to try and find some of his "timeless" material......It puts a great deal of emphasis on interpreting a horse running line and the possible trainer's Angles & Intentions on race day...

Also for the uniformed or the player that may be looking to further his understanding of things when trying to find the contenders and winners in harness-racing, I would suggest these book as well:...Ron Roblin's-"The Thinking Man's Guide to Success at the Trotters"......Robert Perosino's - "Selecting the Standardbred"......& Barry Meadow's - "Professional Harness Betting"..... These are all good stuff, full of information that can make anyone at any level, a little or a whole-lot wiser in the game, and each one stands on it's own, and could possibly form a methodology that would lead one to greater winning experience than he now possess'.......Unfortunately I believe they are all out of print, so finding them would be a chore of sorts....

best,

[beaucap]

....as Al Stanley states...be reminded, that the mechanics of driving take place during the first half-mile...and beyond that call, the driver must have the horse. Calculating times and fractions are important but you defiantly need the trainer and the driver to do their jobs....but then again everyone has their own way of handicapping, and thats why longshots are still available...

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Don't forget,as posted earlier,his Newsletters are being displayed on the net at Handicapping Harness, http://respecki.typepad.com/handicapping_harness/ for all to view or d/l.Each Sunday a new Issue is added.The current is #6,but previous ones are in the Archives.

....as Al Stanley states...be reminded, that the mechanics of driving take place during the first half-mile...and beyond that call, the driver must have the horse. Calculating times and fractions are important but you defiantly need the trainer and the driver to do their jobs....but then again everyone has their own way of handicapping, and thats why longshots are still available...

[Stick]

LK
I believe the Ron Roblin book is one of the best I've read on harness racing.He has an all time favorite angles that do very well at certain tracks also.

[LottaKash]

LK
I believe the Ron Roblin book is one of the best I've read on harness racing.He has an all time favorite angles that do very well at certain tracks also.

Ah know you be right Stick.......cool.

All kidding aside, his work is pretty timeless as well, and if one were to do the work his way, they would almost always have a live wire going for them in the races that were promising.....

best,

[andicap]

Chaplain basically put a new (better probably) twist on the old Tom Ainslie formula for handicapping harness race by rewarding horses for finishing well after showing early speed. I was primiarly a harness player through my late 20s and his method was the basis of my handicapping.

Ainslie's harness book was the first one i ever read and it's a good one.
He offers a point system for handicapping harness races which is pretty decent after you've tweaked it a bit. (for example he gives five points for every quarter a horse is parked -- I changed it to five points ONLY when a horse had no cover. Otherwise 2 points.)

Anyway, Ainslie's basic formula for computing a horse's "pace/speed" was similar to Chaplain's. Except Ainslie used the half-mile time instead of the 3/4 - 1/4 time. He devised a chart whereby a horse that went the half in say, 1 minute (I don't recall the exact specifics) got 100 points. He then equated that 60 second half to an equivelent final time. So if say (again Im making this up) he gave the final time of 2:02 a score of 100, a horse that did a 1.00/2:02 got 200 points. He then devised a chart whereby for every fifth a second the horse ran it got another point so a 59/2:02 got a 205.

He then adjusted the figure to account for driver, post position, parked out, stretch gain and beaten favorite (which i ignored).

I would calucate each horses last three races or so -- depending on recency -- and go from there.

[Charlie]

andicap.... Ainslie's book was also my first read. It was a very good book, but I always felt his numerical rating system, although easy to use, was somewhat flawed. His analysis was based on finding the contender that could produce the best final time after setting or overcoming the fastest early pace. The early pace was based on the half mile call. First of all, accurate variants would be needed to use a system based mostly on time. But my real problem with his methodology was this. Let's assume two contenders that we are rating came out of the same race. The time at the half was 103.0. Horse A went wire to wire and finished in a time of 205.0, winning by a nk. Horse B who stayed on the rail while positioned 6th at the half gained 4 lengths in the stretch to finish in 205.1. Horse A would earn a rating of 40, while Horse B who did nothing early would earn a rating of 39 plus 4 for his stretch gain. His adjusted total would be 43, 3 points higher than Horse A. Horse A most likely ran the stronger race, but didn't receive the higher rating.

And although his method credits parked out horses 2, 5 or whatever points, he gives no extra credit to a leading horse. Isn't the leading horse racing uncovered? I never knew how to handle this situation while attempting to tweak this numerical rating system. Just wondering how you felt about this.

[camfella]

Ainslie's book was the bible years ago,he pointed out some maxims that hold true today. In the day that it was written the first halfs were very slow and he relied mostly on last quarter times ,as the most important number. Racing has changed. Last quarter times now are a less important factor in determining the winner,instead it is a number that should reveal the ability to respond to the inside pace numbers. The second and third quarters determine the pace numbers that matter,a horse not able to handle a quick pace will show a slow last quarter. On the mile tracks the quality of the horse is shown by his reaction to a "fast" 3rd quarter pace,this is the "resting" quarter for the lead horse,and also the quarter that the parked out horse must advance into. The first quarter is almost irrelevant now a days, the 2nd quarter is more relevant,but is not as important as the 3rd. If you read through many PP lines you will see a horse who loses in a higher class will show a slower last quarter than he did in lower classes,because of the pace in that 3rd qtr.

On a 7/8 the same dynamic but it is the 2nd quarter that is the "resting" quarter, that is the reason that many front runners win on the 7/8. Position is gained in the irrelevant first quarter,the leader can back it down in many cases. A winning move is to lay back and brush to a lead in that 2nd qtr without expending much energy. At this point the 3rd quarter is a faster quarter where the race is won. The last quarter is only relevant in that the higher classed animal can out close the lesser ability horses. Woodbine ,you will see many underclassed horses win from the pocket. The trip is always the most important factor in the end. Camfella

[LottaKash]

Good Stuff Cam......:ThmbUp:

best,

[Charlie]

Camfella.... Ainslie didn't rely on last 1/4 times. He used the first 1/2 time of the race itself and the actual finish time of the horse in question to attain a base rating. He then adjusted this rating for class, stretch gain, parked out, beaten favorite, post position and driver. And it was an interesting numerical system, but like I mentioned before, it certainly had its flaws.

[camfella]

I should have said stretch gain,and I do remember his use of final times. It was the bible for many years,we have found that in modern racing that final times mean little,stretch gain or final quarter time,are relevant but pace and trip are more important. His work was important and the first of it's kind,for harness. The analytical process he used are still used,pluging in different numbers. He probably never saw the advent of catch drivers,super trainers.equipment advances and changes in track surfaces. Handicapping harness has caught up with the changes now,it really is a mile sprint,now. Horses actually get a rest in a 28 sec quarter , something unheard of 40 years ago . Cam Fella