Woodbine Monday 1/26 picks

[camfella]

Race 1-
I dont doubt the quality of any of these,it's more of what direction they are going in,#6 Sand Wyndham,is the best with Paul Mac,down to drive,but has a breaking problem, I'll by-pass the mares and look to beat the top one with either the improving #4 Celebrity Shark or the class dropping #8 Shoeless White sox, #9 tenacious Kyle might improve with Jody driving

Race 2- The mare Afternoon Dreams has been on a roll,meets the boys off a tough series,may take a step back off a lifetime effort,or maybe not,#2 Dillavec has raced good one,rested and back,has a good shot,maybe at a price,the well thought of John Pauls Legacy,#8,also gets the services of Paul Mac and rates a shot

Race 3-#1 won More Grin and #5 OK Acrobat rate chances off of some great efforts,before their last races,the ones to beat #9 Steals aKiss, and Rays Edge , #2 I Scoot Sam is uninspiring,#4 Herecomes the River could snap back at huge odds for an exotics overlay

Race 4- Andover Son ,#2 fast improving,but what the heck is wrong with Joe Page,Abe Linkin,and my pick for a number #9 Azur, to beat the break prone First Notable Chip?

Race 5-Good Luck, might take a shot with #9 Mac Beth,first time Reid

Race 6-Tough bunch here, Might shoot with #6 Lord Fantasy and the likely to be overlooked #9 Lonely Winner

Race 7- Indy Horse #1 Bluebiord Longlegs, The underperforming Matacumbe and Improper Hall could always rebound, The Mare #9 Scottish Cross should be the very popular choice.

Race 8-#7 You Gotta See this may be a decent play off of break in his last, #'s 3 and 4 will be backed on their class jumps, My choice #2 Your Raider,eliminate the races before and after the sick call,now how does he look?

Race 9-Lightly raced #3 Avalon Promise must race well off of layoffs,by his history,#1 Cataclysmic Moment had a eventful trip in last ,has the ability, #8 Mcsampson finally won a race and as a reward ,drops in class after winning last week,only at WEG can this happen,lol.

Race 10-#4 Lucky Hall has finally seemed to gotten it together, plus he drew well here ,using Rock Bottom to contend

Race 11-Somebody wins by Default #4 I'll Call U Back has the most to bank on

[Ray2000]

Great post Camfella, Thanks for the info and nice call on OK ACROBAT $10.20 winner

I like Lucky Hall in the 10th also, when a horse can go wire to wire with a TMaster speed rating higher than today's class rating, it's a good indicator. Problem is that 85 rating was at Flamboro, and I'm trying to decide if it's real.

Standardbred Canada's latest track speed ratings have
Flmd at 118.6 (1:58-3)
WDB at 114.8 (1:54-4)
3.8 secs difference

I have Flmd at 118.9
and Wdb at 115.4 3.5 secs diff

It will be very interesting to see what kind af rating he'll get if he wires this field.

Playing 4 / 235 and 235/ 4

Good luck

[camfella]

Great post Camfella, Thanks for the info and nice call on OK ACROBAT $10.20 winner

I like Lucky Hall in the 10th also, when a horse can go wire to wire with a TMaster speed rating higher than today's class rating, it's a good indicator. Problem is that 85 rating was at Flamboro, and I'm trying to decide if it's real.

Standardbred Canada's latest track speed ratings have
Flmd at 118.6 (1:58-3)
WDB at 114.8 (1:54-4)
3.8 secs difference

I have Flmd at 118.9
and Wdb at 115.4 3.5 secs diff

It will be very interesting to see what kind af rating he'll get if he wires this field.

Playing 4 / 235 and 235/ 4

Good luck
Agree Ray,you cant figure a good 5 points higher at Flammy,but it seems if they get them ready they come in,race better and show maybe an 81 or 82 and can still win,off that 85, the Woodbine numbers are always higer than they seem. Camfella

[LottaKash]

FWIW, guys, I have found that TM is very optimisic in their SR's for Flamboro Downs.....I don't put a lot of stock in those numbers......In fact the TM people have got it wrong at many other venues, imo....This makes it very hard to transpose the numbers when horses are shipping in and to other tracks.....

I do believe that their SR's have a lot of validity at each track on an individual basis, meaning as long as the horses in consideration are of the same circuit, the TM-SR's hold up quite well, as they are relative to each other.....I put a lot of stock in the SR's, and it is a high priority for me....but when comparing horses from other tracks, they fall apart, and often leave me guessing sometimes......

AS Ray, has already pointed out, TM and the USTA are behind the times and they need to update their base ratings to better translate the track to track comparisons.....They sure charge enough for them, the least they could give you is more accuracy when doing track to tracks....I think.....

ARE YOU LISTENING tRACKMASTER ????

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

FWIW, guys, I have found that TM is very optimisic in their SR's for Flamboro Downs.....I don't put a lot of stock in those numbers......In fact the TM people have got it wrong at many other venues, imo....This makes it very hard to transpose the numbers when horses are shipping in and to other tracks.....

I do believe that their SR's have a lot of validity at each track on an individual basis, meaning as long as the horses in consideration are of the same circuit, the TM-SR's hold up quite well, as they are relative to each other.....I put a lot of stock in the SR's, and it is a high priority for me....but when comparing horses from other tracks, they fall apart, and often leave me guessing sometimes......

AS Ray, has already pointed out, TM and the USTA are behind the times and they need to update their base ratings to better translate the track to track comparisons.....They sure charge enough for them, the least they could give you is more accuracy when doing track to tracks....I think.....

ARE YOU LISTENING tRACKMASTER ????

best,

Speed Ratings are one thing for horses coming to Woodbine from neighboring tracks like Windsor, Georgian Downs, Flamboro, Kawartha Downs and Western Fair but you have to take into consideration the class of horses they have been racing against at these small tracks. Of the first four tracks I mentioned the horses shipping to Woodbine rarely win unless they catch a weak field at Woodbine which happens now and then. Horses from Western Fair (Lon), in my opinion are, however, quite competitive at Woodbine if they show a good PPs and I have seen these London horses shave off 4 to 5 seconds at Woodbine sometimes.

My 2 cents on the subject

Sea Biscuit.

[Ray2000]

Race 10--Nice payoffs on the 5-3-7-4, we flirted with a big one, $100 ex $500 tri:)

When looking at comparitive speed ratings between tracks it's the difference that's significant and that brings up the age old problem.. Is a track rated faster by so many seconds because of surface and turns or because faster horses race there?

I tried to get around the problem by averaging the final times of all races for class ratings between 80 and 90 at any single track.
that table for 2007 is at

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=46006



Canada recently updated their ratings

http://www.standardbredcanada.ca/content/track-speed-ratings-standardbred-canada.html

USTA and/or TrackMaster should do the same.

[LottaKash]

Perhaps we can all give Trackmaster our views on this issue, and with the advent of their new Pace-Perfromances, they just might get up to date and get more accurate in their track to track adjustments....Power to the people ???? Hey let's give it a shot, as collectively, maybe they will listen.........:eek:

best,

[camfella]

TM Speed Ratings are reliable,but we need to also look at the race line,horse racing in higher classes will always have a higher SR,because of pace,so class droppers will normally have a slower SR on the drop(3-5 pts avg),also class climbers on par will have a slower rating than they did in a lower class,depending on pace. It seems contadictory but those are the forces at work. Shipping into an "A" track will also tend to increase the SR of the horse comparatively,if they are getting a better driver and better equipment, "better" trainer etc. So each horses's race lines have to be analyzed individually. One thing that I would not count on is a Flammy horse with SR of 73 ,entering a race at Woodbine with a rating of 83, to compete , the ones that we really need to think about are the ones shipping in with an 88 from Flam ,there are other factors to calculate in this example. The BigM ,is under the same puzzle,because the paces at M are more demanding. Even Balmoral shippers may race at a 10 point higher number when they go from a wind and cold depressed half in 58 sec to a more lively 55.3 for example. The 1/2 milers,and Dover,Pompano on the 5/8 where the pace lines are "fast" will be over rated on SR side,I have found. Tracks that I have found to be reliable and similar in SR to The BigM are WEG,Chester and Rockingham. I use this info to my advantage and have done numerous comparisons as to their validity-Camfella