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cj
01-26-2009, 07:59 PM
But after a gelding named This Ones for Phil scored a remarkable victory Saturday at Gulfstream Park, many fans - or at least the cynical ones - had a different reaction. This Ones for Phil epitomized what is wrong with the modern American racing game.

Not only was the performance extraordinary, but so, too, was the degree of improvement by This Ones for Phil. In his eight starts for O'Connell, the gelding had never earned a figure higher than 81. Dutrow had managed to improve his form by nearly 15 lengths.

Such distrust has corroded the very foundation of the sport. Honest owners are reluctant to invest in the game when they believe they can't compete with the cheaters. Many bettors have lost enthusiasm because the art of handicapping has become an exercise in guessing who has the best "juice." The public at large is alienated when it suspects that drugs are tainting the sport's greatest events. This is what happened in last year's Triple Crown series, and it could happen again in 2009.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=101289&subs=0&arc=0

PA...What say you? Hay and water?

Imriledup
01-26-2009, 09:24 PM
The problem is that in order to punish someone either financially or with supension, you need a physical test to say that the horse ran with something illegal.

Racing needs to adopt new rules to punish 'form reversal' offenders even if they don't find a banned substance in the animal's system.

We all know that there are drugs that can mask other drugs...so, a 'clean' test on a form reversal runner doesn't hold a heck of a lot of water as far as the exploited fans go.

We also need to make sure we don't punish a trainer for 'moving up' a runner that was just trained by someone incompetent. The move up trainer shouldn't be punished because the first person didn't know how to put a bridle on a horse.

In this day and age, the skill of the current training crop is, on the whole, extremely good. Most trainers have the ability to use current technology and a qualified vet. There are very few trainers out there who are SO incompetent that another trainer will just move their horse up 15 lengths overnight.

There might need to be retrospective punishments. If this Dutrow horse in question goes on to consistently run Beyer figs in the 100s and turns into a top horse, than this was obviously the case of a top horse who just underachieved in a bad barn.

But, if this one reversal turns out to be a one hit wonder and the horse then goes back to his previous races and never duplicates that 'explosion' than someone can go back months later and finger that one race and issue a punishment.

Lots to think about, lots to discuss.

joanied
01-26-2009, 09:30 PM
I just read the story...and yes, it seems incredible, but certainly not impossible for this horse to improove so much, without being drugged. Let's not jump to conclusions...maybe wait to see if he holds form and wins again in such a fashion...with the eyes of everyone watching, would Dutrow be stupid enough to drug this horse...regardless of what some may think of Dutrow...I don't think he'd take a chance like that now.
From my experience at Belmont Park, I worked for some trainers (no names) that had some very good horses but just couldn't win with them...for any variety of reasons, they simply were not good trainers...and that was back in the day when it was hay, oats and water.

Let's give Dutrow the benefit of the doubt...and now, I am awaiting the bashing I'm gonna get:)

Dahoss9698
01-26-2009, 09:39 PM
I agree Joanied. If there is anyone who deserves the benefit of the doubt, it's Dutrow. :bang:

As we all know, he's been the poster child for clean training right? How many suspensions has he had?

sonnyp
01-26-2009, 09:43 PM
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=101289&subs=0&arc=0

PA...What say you? Hay and water?

no question about it. to quote one of my key ex-owners who quit rather than participate, "stevie wonder and ray charles could see whats goin on !"

the stats for "super trainers" are impossible to achieve without some sort of edge.

ideal candidates are horses with ability who are off form for various reasons. it's not rocket science, you just need the "tools" to "fix" the malady.

assuming the horse has talent,
1. painkillers to lessen discomfort
2. bronciodialators to enhance breathing
3. bloodbuilders to increase red cell count to carry oxygen
4. steroids to maximize mass and strength
5. cardiac stimulant to increase blood flow
6. diuretic to decrease blood preassure and minimize bleeding
7. milk shake to retard buid up of lactic acid the fatigue factor in the muscle system

if a trainer supplies proper nutrition and conditioning and has one or all of the above at his disposal which will pass the post race test, he or she becomes a "super trainer" and dominates in a manner the "sport" has never experienced before.

by the way, its not only horseracing but a reflection of our "improving" win at all cost society.

horseracing has gone from whitney, vanderbuilt, and mellon to gill, bone and iavarone. draw your own conclusions.

Imriledup
01-26-2009, 10:49 PM
horseracing has gone from whitney, vanderbuilt, and mellon to gill, bone and iavarone. draw your own conclusions.[/QUOTE]


Chilling.

BIG49010
01-26-2009, 11:26 PM
It's racing own fault, they keep increasing the purses, which intices the cheaters to look for an edge. Cut the purses by 50%, and the cheaters won't be able to afford to pay the vets.

pandy
01-26-2009, 11:30 PM
horseracing has gone from whitney, vanderbuilt, and mellon to gill, bone and iavarone. draw your own conclusions.


Chilling.[/QUOTE]

You make a good point. You're right, the gentlemen who ruled the Sport of Kings back in the day were elite socialites who bred and raced horses for the sport of it, not for the money. These owners who give their horses to trainers that have had multiple positives, as Dutrow has, are not sportsmen, they're businessmen, and they only care about making more money, nothing else matters. You can add J. Paul Reddam (Cash Call) to the list of owners.

slew101
01-26-2009, 11:38 PM
Beyer once again comes across as nothing but a sore loser. That was a weak-ass race, which you often get in these restricted big-money races. Look at the 6-5 favorite? Beaten 6 lengths in his last start at even-money.

Gulfstream has always been a crazy track form wise. Horses who run lights out there can't run a lick anywhere else. Look at Any Limit, the Allen Jerkens horse. On Gulfstream, he's a graded stakes winner. Off it, he can't hit the board. Is anyone accusing Jerkens of juicing his horse?

The Bit
01-26-2009, 11:53 PM
Beyer once again comes across as nothing but a sore loser. That was a weak-ass race, which you often get in these restricted big-money races. Look at the 6-5 favorite? Beaten 6 lengths in his last start at even-money.

Gulfstream has always been a crazy track form wise. Horses who run lights out there can't run a lick anywhere else. Look at Any Limit, the Allen Jerkens horse. On Gulfstream, he's a graded stakes winner. Off it, he can't hit the board. Is anyone accusing Jerkens of juicing his horse?

You must be a Dutrow?

ryesteve
01-27-2009, 12:03 AM
Racing needs to adopt new rules to punish 'form reversal' offenders even if they don't find a banned substance in the animal's system."Guilty until proven innocent" isn't going to be a popular battle cry, and it's completely unnecessary when there are plenty of people who ARE caught who just get slaps on the wrists. Let's start with doling out significant punishments before we widen the net to include any trainer who had a horse run a race that didn't figure.

LottaKash
01-27-2009, 12:14 AM
Given Dutrow's incredible record with drugs, and his fiasco with the Steroid- wonder-horse Big Brown, I will err on the side of "Scumbag"....Once a cheater always a cheater.....Why would anyone think that he or people of his ilk would ever change......The Belmont swung the deal for me.....stinko.....

best,

ralph_the_cat
01-27-2009, 12:18 AM
Beyer once again comes across as nothing but a sore loser. That was a weak-ass race, which you often get in these restricted big-money races. Look at the 6-5 favorite? Beaten 6 lengths in his last start at even-money.

Gulfstream has always been a crazy track form wise. Horses who run lights out there can't run a lick anywhere else. Look at Any Limit, the Allen Jerkens horse. On Gulfstream, he's a graded stakes winner. Off it, he can't hit the board. Is anyone accusing Jerkens of juicing his horse?

Ditto, hes been writing more and more crap like this... GROSS... I guess hes not a history buff in racing... this has only been going on "recently" says the experts... I woulda loved to have heard what the "beyers" of the world were saying when slew ran those freakish first fractions, when Man O War ran huge every race... krist, when seabiscuit nearly broke down and came back to run his best race at what, age 7 or 8?... and what was that super horse that started out a claimer back in the day... considered one of the best claimers before our time, forget his name, but he went on to win a couple graded stakes, the name will come to me... losers have been crying "cheater" since the beginning of man...

HUSKER55
01-27-2009, 12:31 AM
If you read "Beyer On Speed" he says that his rating can vary by 20 points from track to track and race to race. My problem is that the horse is running about 12 lengths faster than his last outing, considering the way he weighs time. I think that the trainer must be really, really good. That rating is twice what Beyer says is his swing rate is.

His technique must be a guarded secret. Maybe it is the horses diet and exercise program.

Does anyone know for sure if the track runs post race tests on the horses and if so are the results posted?

Thanks for the info.

husker55

cj
01-27-2009, 12:32 AM
Beyer once again comes across as nothing but a sore loser. That was a weak-ass race, which you often get in these restricted big-money races. Look at the 6-5 favorite? Beaten 6 lengths in his last start at even-money.

Gulfstream has always been a crazy track form wise. Horses who run lights out there can't run a lick anywhere else. Look at Any Limit, the Allen Jerkens horse. On Gulfstream, he's a graded stakes winner. Off it, he can't hit the board. Is anyone accusing Jerkens of juicing his horse?

Where in the article does Beyer say he bet? He probably bet on the Dutrow if I had to guess. That doesn't mean as somebody that likes the sport he can't speak against someone who is very likely cheating and bad for the game.

Anyone comparing Jerkens to Dutrow needs to have his head examined.

Imriledup
01-27-2009, 12:36 AM
"Guilty until proven innocent" isn't going to be a popular battle cry, and it's completely unnecessary when there are plenty of people who ARE caught who just get slaps on the wrists. Let's start with doling out significant punishments before we widen the net to include any trainer who had a horse run a race that didn't figure.

Great points. If we aren't going to really punish trainers who have drug positive tests, than the game of racing is saying that they don't really care.

Racing needs to start caring.

Will Racing ever care or will we hear lip service for many more years to come?

proximity
01-27-2009, 12:39 AM
the horse ran faster than big brown.

i think ray kerrison needs to be contacted !! :cool:

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 01:44 AM
Beyer once again comes across as nothing but a sore loser. That was a weak-ass race, which you often get in these restricted big-money races. Look at the 6-5 favorite? Beaten 6 lengths in his last start at even-money.

Gulfstream has always been a crazy track form wise. Horses who run lights out there can't run a lick anywhere else. Look at Any Limit, the Allen Jerkens horse. On Gulfstream, he's a graded stakes winner. Off it, he can't hit the board. Is anyone accusing Jerkens of juicing his horse?

Your post made my head hurt. Your explanation for the horse running a 117 beyer is the favorite was bad and Gulfstream is a crazy track form wise? Interesting logic...

I just don't see how people that bet their hard earned money are okay with this kind of stuff going on. I am curious though. Do you think any of what beyer is saying is correct, or are all of the guys he mentioned clean trainers in your opinion?

slew101
01-27-2009, 01:57 AM
I'm not defending Dutrow, or his checkered past. I think his conduct after Big Brown's loss in the Belmont was dispicable, not commenting when he was a loud mouth all through the Triple Crown. Also, blaming the jockey for the loss was even more crazy.

My point is Dutrow is not the only trainer who works wonders with new horses. What about the best claiming trainers, like Mitchell in California, or even Doug O'Neil has taken horses and improved them dramatically after a claim/private purchase.

And, yes, Gulfstream is a crazy track form wise. I gave an example of a horse who wins stakes races there and can't compete elsewhere. I'm sure there are plenty of others who run lights out on that track and run up the track elsewhere.

But back to Beyer. He wrote a column last year after the Blue Grass, saying polytrack was killing the triple crown prep races because the horses with bad form were winning. Hello? At Keeneland? The most crazy speed strip of horse racing in history. The Blue Grass has always been a toss race leading into the Derby? Remember Sinister Minister? He won by 12 lengths and never won again? Did Baffert dope him that day? Or the horse that beat Thunder Gulch whose name I'm forgetting (Randy Romero rode him wire to wire, and I think he ran dead last in the Derby). I just think Beyer has a short memory on some of his columns.

Your post made my head hurt. Your explanation for the horse running a 117 beyer is the favorite was bad and Gulfstream is a crazy track form wise? Interesting logic...

I just don't see how people that bet their hard earned money are okay with this kind of stuff going on. I am curious though. Do you think any of what beyer is saying is correct, or are all of the guys he mentioned clean trainers in your opinion?

slew101
01-27-2009, 01:59 AM
Lava Man perhaps? Trained by Doug O'Neill.

and what was that super horse that started out a claimer back in the day... considered one of the best claimers before our time, forget his name, but he went on to win a couple graded stakes, the name will come to me... losers have been crying "cheater" since the beginning of man...

JustRalph
01-27-2009, 02:15 AM
I was always suspect of Lava Man..........

O'neill got popped for Milkshakes (from memory here) and Lava Man stopped winning?

81-117 ............ Ray Charles, where are you?

how cliche
01-27-2009, 02:19 AM
This is a little off topic & btw I agree with Beyer. I was contemplating playing the late pick 4 at GP on Sunshine Millions Day when perusing the aforementioned race I thought, 'I gotta use this horse prominently...1st time Dutrowjuice.' Accept the juice and don't try to fight it when the powers that be aren't.


There's a theory about why certain runners like Lava Man, General Challenge and Senor Swinger only performed well in Southern California. In the medication column of your past performance profile you'll note other states like KY of FL only feature an L, but in CA it features an LB.

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 02:28 AM
I'm not defending Dutrow, or his checkered past. I think his conduct after Big Brown's loss in the Belmont was dispicable, not commenting when he was a loud mouth all through the Triple Crown. Also, blaming the jockey for the loss was even more crazy.

My point is Dutrow is not the only trainer who works wonders with new horses. What about the best claiming trainers, like Mitchell in California, or even Doug O'Neil has taken horses and improved them dramatically after a claim/private purchase.

And, yes, Gulfstream is a crazy track form wise. I gave an example of a horse who wins stakes races there and can't compete elsewhere. I'm sure there are plenty of others who run lights out on that track and run up the track elsewhere.

But back to Beyer. He wrote a column last year after the Blue Grass, saying polytrack was killing the triple crown prep races because the horses with bad form were winning. Hello? At Keeneland? The most crazy speed strip of horse racing in history. The Blue Grass has always been a toss race leading into the Derby? Remember Sinister Minister? He won by 12 lengths and never won again? Did Baffert dope him that day? Or the horse that beat Thunder Gulch whose name I'm forgetting (Randy Romero rode him wire to wire, and I think he ran dead last in the Derby). I just think Beyer has a short memory on some of his columns.

Well, if you take a look at the column he mentions plenty of move up trainers. It wasn't just a Dutrow piece. I disagree about Gulfstream. One horse running well there doesn't prove your theory. If you had said Delaware, I'd agree, because we've seen plenty of horses not carry their form to other tracks when they leave. But, it's hard to justify a 117, no matter how hard you want to.

I'll also disagree about the blue grass being a toss race. Street Sense? thunder gulch? It's how you look at the race. Anyone with a pulse knew Sinister Minister had no shot in the Derby, as well as Wild Syn.

I guess I just don't see what your issue with the article is. On one hand you call Beyer a sore loser for writing it. Then you say you can't defend Dutrow. So which one is it? At least Beyer says things no one else can or will. 95% of racing "journalists" bite their tongue and kiss ass, so as to not ruffle any feathers. Would you prefer puff pieces and Derby Watches that list every 3 year old in training? I wouldn't...

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 02:30 AM
This is a little off topic & btw I agree with Beyer. I was contemplating playing the late pick 4 at GP on Sunshine Millions Day when perusing the aforementioned race I thought, 'I gotta use this horse prominently...1st time Dutrowjuice.' Accept the juice and don't try to fight it when the powers that be aren't.


There's a theory about why certain runners like Lava Man, General Challenge and Senor Swinger only performed well in Southern California. In the medication column of your past performance profile you'll note other states like KY of FL only feature an L, but in CA it features an LB.

Didn't Senor Swinger win a bunch of races at Churchill?

PaceAdvantage
01-27-2009, 04:25 AM
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=101289&subs=0&arc=0

PA...What say you? Hay and water?You call me out as if I haven't changed my ways in recent times. I am no longer the wide eyed rube of yesteryear.

And isn't this like the 10th time Beyer has written this kind of article?

PaceAdvantage
01-27-2009, 04:26 AM
I agree Joanied. If there is anyone who deserves the benefit of the doubt, it's Dutrow. :bang:

As we all know, he's been the poster child for clean training right? How many suspensions has he had?About as many suspensions as the apparently beloved Steve Asmussen, who was just voted Trainer of the Year! :lol: :lol:

I eagerly await your post decrying S.A. and Curlin as winners of Trainer and HOY.

PaceAdvantage
01-27-2009, 04:30 AM
the stats for "super trainers" are impossible to achieve without some sort of edge.Your point would be more valid if this were still 1950.

Lots of things in this sport have changed in the last 50+ years.

I'm not going to defend the cheaters, but I will point out that trainers have a helluva lot more options than they did 50 years ago, including the ability to ship in and out at will, cross-country, many more venues, many more racing dates, etc. etc.

As I said, lots of things have changed that have enabled trainers to improve their hit rate, and not everything is due to illegal chemical enhancements.

How many times does Frankel scratch out of a race in order to avoid a race that comes up too tough? Trainers in the old days didn't have that kind of luxury.

PaceAdvantage
01-27-2009, 04:32 AM
Given Dutrow's incredible record with drugs, and his fiasco with the Steroid- wonder-horse Big Brown, I will err on the side of "Scumbag"....Once a cheater always a cheater.....Why would anyone think that he or people of his ilk would ever change......The Belmont swung the deal for me.....stinko.....

best,I love it when they write stuff like this about BB, but never about Curlin...as if Curlin was never on steroids. Steve Asmussen (trainer of the year no less) would never allow something like that! :lol:

the little guy
01-27-2009, 10:01 AM
Beyer once again comes across as nothing but a sore loser. That was a weak-ass race, which you often get in these restricted big-money races. Look at the 6-5 favorite? Beaten 6 lengths in his last start at even-money.

Gulfstream has always been a crazy track form wise. Horses who run lights out there can't run a lick anywhere else. Look at Any Limit, the Allen Jerkens horse. On Gulfstream, he's a graded stakes winner. Off it, he can't hit the board. Is anyone accusing Jerkens of juicing his horse?


Thank you for this post. It was truly most insightful. I always enjoy a post that is inaccurate both in opinion and in fact.

Any Limit won two Grade 3 Stakes at Gulfstream. She finished second in a Grade 2 at Gulfstream. She won a Grade 2 at Belmont and a Grade 2 at Saratoga ( where, coincidentally, she equalled her career highest Beyer fig ).

Next.

jotb
01-27-2009, 10:09 AM
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=101289&subs=0&arc=0

PA...What say you? Hay and water?

I think Beyer should have noted that the 2 horses faced each other back in Aug. at Calder in the 100k Florida Stallion Stk going the same distance.You Luckie Mann finished 3rd in the race and was 3.5 lengths behind the winner. This Ones For Phil finished 5th and was 6.5 lengths behind the winner. Now, This Ones For Phil beats You Luckie Mann by 2 1/4 lengths. A 5 1/4 length difference from the last time they faced each other.

According to Beyer, Dutrow improved his form nearly 15 lengths because of the 117 number. Could it be possible that the number is just wrong? Beyer say's "the performance was extraordinary" and "No horse so young has ever earned such a high number since the Daily Racing Form began publishing these ratings in 1992". I don't think "extraordinary" is the case here. If you don't have a speed figure attached to the race then it just looks like This Ones For Phil turned the tables on You Luckie Mann this time, which is not that unusual for young horses to do. That race was 5 months ago, and Big Drama was the winner that day. Big Drama has come back to win a 150k, 400k and 750k since that race. Big Drama earned a 96 beyer in the Grade 3, $750,000 Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. The trainer of Big Drama is David Fawkes and he's won 16% of his races since 2002. According to Beyer's comment "supertrainer's" Dutrow 25% and Wolfson 24% (since 2002), I guess David Fawkes and Big Drama couldn't compete against these 2 horses if they were to meet again down the road.

Joe

The Bit
01-27-2009, 10:12 AM
Thank you for this post. It was truly most insightful. I always enjoy a post that is inaccurate both in opinion and in fact.



lol :D

The Bit
01-27-2009, 10:18 AM
Anybody that will defend R. Dutrow, Asmussen, Levine, Lake, Vaders, Mitchell, Wolfsen, Mullins etc. have to be one of a few things.

1. Related to them. That is the only way you could understand the situation and yet look at it with such a bias or a great pair of blinders and somehow come up with an explanation other than that they are cheaters.

2. You have next to no clue what you are talking about. Atleast in this scenario, you can cry ignorance and we will understand that you were just posting for the sake of posting.

3. You supply above set of trainers with whatever they use. Obviously, the more bad press the high the pressure gets in the old cooker and the sooner you are out of business.

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 10:29 AM
About as many suspensions as the apparently beloved Steve Asmussen, who was just voted Trainer of the Year! :lol: :lol:

I eagerly await your post decrying S.A. and Curlin as winners of Trainer and HOY.

I feel like I'm in a political thread, spin away. Although I'm a bit confused. What about my post do you disagree with? Do you really think guys like Dutrow (Or Asmussen or any of the other supertrainers) deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore? How many chances do they get?

A glimpse at any horse racing board will show you that Asmussen is hardly beloved. I'm certainly not going to defend Asmussen and I've never mentioned anything about Big brown and steroids. Is it just easier to point out Asmussen won trainer of the year, as if that somehow means it's okay what these guys are doing?

Judge Gallivan
01-27-2009, 10:29 AM
I think Beyer should have noted that the 2 horses faced each other back in Aug. at Calder in the 100k Florida Stallion Stk going the same distance.You Luckie Mann finished 3rd in the race and was 3.5 lengths behind the winner. This Ones For Phil finished 5th and was 6.5 lengths behind the winner. Now, This Ones For Phil beats You Luckie Mann by 2 1/4 lengths. A 5 1/4 length difference from the last time they faced each other.

According to Beyer, Dutrow improved his form nearly 15 lengths because of the 117 number. Could it be possible that the number is just wrong? Beyer say's "the performance was extraordinary" and "No horse so young has ever earned such a high number since the Daily Racing Form began publishing these ratings in 1992". I don't think "extraordinary" is the case here. If you don't have a speed figure attached to the race then it just looks like This Ones For Phil turned the tables on You Luckie Mann this time, which is not that unusual for young horses to do. That race was 5 months ago, and Big Drama was the winner that day. Big Drama has come back to win a 150k, 400k and 750k since that race. Big Drama earned a 96 beyer in the Grade 3, $750,000 Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs. The trainer of Big Drama is David Fawkes and he's won 16% of his races since 2002. According to Beyer's comment "supertrainer's" Dutrow 25% and Wolfson 24% (since 2002), I guess David Fawkes and Big Drama couldn't compete against these 2 horses if they were to meet again down the road.

Joe

For what it's worth on Thorograph numbers You Luckie Mann had the best number in the race - 2 1/2 earned on 10/18 in Calder. This Ones For Phil had the second best number - 4 earned on 7/27 in Calder.

I don't know which number he ran on Saturday, but on those numbers it certainly wasn't impossible for This Ones For Phil to win that race.

turfbar
01-27-2009, 10:56 AM
Look in the bottom left hand corner or the DRF,where trainer stats are printed, check out R.Dutrow's % (percentage) 1st time w/trainer, then go over to the jockey stat and check out Dicky's go to guy Edgar Prado hmmmm they hit at a nice clip when they team up 27%, it's not all about figs. There will be no charge for this handicapping lesson this time.


Turfbar

the little guy
01-27-2009, 11:09 AM
Look in the bottom left hand corner or the DRF,where trainer stats are printed, check out R.Dutrow's % (percentage) 1st time w/trainer, then go over to the jockey stat and check out Dicky's go to guy Edgar Prado hmmmm they hit at a nice clip when they team up 27%, it's not all about figs. There will be no charge for this handicapping lesson this time.


Turfbar


So it was Edgar that moved the horse up over ten lengths?

How come he doesn't do that on every horse he rides?

how cliche
01-27-2009, 11:19 AM
Didn't Senor Swinger win a bunch of races at Churchill?

You're correct. I was thinking of some gray turf horse for Baffert who only won when he came home...Who was that?

I think there's good money to be made from juicers. Think of it like an unfair track bias. These are things that enable price runners to win. The G.P. usually bets the best horse with the biggest figs. Don't fight the things that move a horse up. Identify the factor and exploit it. Just my $0.02.

point given
01-27-2009, 11:57 AM
Two things came to mind in reading this story. 1 - Why wasn't the former trainer of the horse ( Occonnell), This ones for Phil , interviewed to get their take on the horse which was formerly under their care ( doesn't it make them seem incompetent) ? 2 Why wasn't Dutrow asked whether the horse had been put on steriods ? ( which I believe are allowed in florida until April )


I confess I didnot bet on this horse , but I did take a careful look for any telltale sign , like a workout , that might pop up. The trainer factor was there as stated by Beyer. Curiously there was a DRF ? column on the horse and Dutrow the day after the race and Dutrow claimed that " he didnot beat on the horse with fast workouts in the AM " and that he blew him out the morning of the race. This seemed a bit weak to me , to say the least. :eek: It reminded me of the when I was a kid and watched wrestling on TV and some character would reach into his shorts and give the good guy the business with it out of sight of the referee , and then hide it and put his hands in the air like nothing had happened. Of course all the viewers saw what happened, but the myopic referee didn't see a thing. Is this what racing has come too ?

BombsAway Bob
01-27-2009, 12:30 PM
So it was Edgar that moved the horse up over ten lengths?
How come he doesn't do that on every horse he rides?

commentary by Trevor..or Jim Ross...
"...ooh, & there's a nasty spill on the far turn...and Edgar Prado seems to have something that looks like Brass Knuckles that he's tucking into his silks... the stewards apparently were watching the fall, & have missed Edgar's sleight of hand!"
them jocks are sneaky :D

Greyfox
01-27-2009, 12:37 PM
Look in the bottom left hand corner or the DRF,where trainer stats are printed, check out R.Dutrow's % (percentage) 1st time w/trainer, then go over to the jockey stat and check out Dicky's go to guy Edgar Prado hmmmm they hit at a nice clip when they team up 27%, it's not all about figs. There will be no charge for this handicapping lesson this time.


Turfbar
Good point. Trainer Larry Mullins hits at a clip of 31 % with his new transferees. Yesterday, for Fair Grounds last race he woke # 4 O Night Divine up to win by multiple lengths.
I realize that all of the trainers mentioned in this thread are also very good horsemen in addition to whatever other shennanigans are going on. I wonder what they do to get those runners to do so well in their first starts.

I once wrote a track complaining about a horse running 15 lengths faster in his first start for one trainer. The track secretary wrote me back and said that the trainer galloped his runners clockwise in the morning to overcome soreness. I smiled. I wonder if he wanted me to buy a bridge.

TEJAS KIDD
01-27-2009, 12:57 PM
I was always suspect of Lava Man..........

O'neill got popped for Milkshakes (from memory here) and Lava Man stopped winning?

81-117 ............ Ray Charles, where are you?


Here is a tidbit of info.
Lava Man went 13/3-3-1 before O'Neill
34/14-5-4 With O'Neill
6/0-0-2 After his groom was injured in accident (losing his arm)
5/0-0-0 Out of Ca, and Off Bute with Avg Beaten Lengths 24.4

sonnyp
01-27-2009, 01:03 PM
Your point would be more valid if this were still 1950.

Lots of things in this sport have changed in the last 50+ years.

I'm not going to defend the cheaters, but I will point out that trainers have a helluva lot more options than they did 50 years ago, including the ability to ship in and out at will, cross-country, many more venues, many more racing dates, etc. etc.

As I said, lots of things have changed that have enabled trainers to improve their hit rate, and not everything is due to illegal chemical enhancements.

How many times does Frankel scratch out of a race in order to avoid a race that comes up too tough? Trainers in the old days didn't have that kind of luxury.

i'll give you the stakes caliber trainers have greater opportunities to pad their stats. i was speaking more about those 2 or 3 trainers on every circuit from california to mass., from canterbury to calder who absolutely dominate, by anyone's standards. 30% first off claim while horses taken from them can barely finish their next race.

ive trained more than one breed, and i've seen very compitent trainers, who didn't break the rules, lose horses to "juice super trainers" and were rendered "incompetent" and eventually had to quit the business.

please believe me, there is only so much, within the rules, you can do to improve a horses performance. ill even be willing to give the devil his due on a horse thats been rehabed over a six month period, but i refuse to bless a claimed horse that jumps 2 classes and runs off the screen 10 days later in a circumstance that happens repeatedly with the same individuals.

everybody tries to change equipment, nutrition, shoeing, legal suppliments and medications, drivers, classiffication, distance etc. etc. etc. why do these same people have such remarkable success while others dont ? oh, i see, they're "horse whisperers". god has truly blessed them......and god bless us all !!!

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:05 PM
It's racing own fault, they keep increasing the purses, which intices the cheaters to look for an edge. Cut the purses by 50%, and the cheaters won't be able to afford to pay the vets.

That is ridiculous...every trainer, owner ect would be punished, and just how big do you think the fields would be if they cut purses.

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:09 PM
The problem is that in order to punish someone either financially or with supension, you need a physical test to say that the horse ran with something illegal.

Racing needs to adopt new rules to punish 'form reversal' offenders even if they don't find a banned substance in the animal's system.

We all know that there are drugs that can mask other drugs...so, a 'clean' test on a form reversal runner doesn't hold a heck of a lot of water as far as the exploited fans go.

We also need to make sure we don't punish a trainer for 'moving up' a runner that was just trained by someone incompetent. The move up trainer shouldn't be punished because the first person didn't know how to put a bridle on a horse.

In this day and age, the skill of the current training crop is, on the whole, extremely good. Most trainers have the ability to use current technology and a qualified vet. There are very few trainers out there who are SO incompetent that another trainer will just move their horse up 15 lengths overnight.

There might need to be retrospective punishments. If this Dutrow horse in question goes on to consistently run Beyer figs in the 100s and turns into a top horse, than this was obviously the case of a top horse who just underachieved in a bad barn.

But, if this one reversal turns out to be a one hit wonder and the horse then goes back to his previous races and never duplicates that 'explosion' than someone can go back months later and finger that one race and issue a punishment.

Lots to think about, lots to discuss.

Good post. I said that Dutrow should be given the benefit of the doubt...that we need to wait and see if this horse continues to hold this latest form before anyone says Dutrow drugged him...as I mentioned, there are a lot of trainers that just don't know how to train...so it is indeed possible that Dutrow did all the right things with this horse to move him up...sans drugs.

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:11 PM
I agree Joanied. If there is anyone who deserves the benefit of the doubt, it's Dutrow. :bang:

As we all know, he's been the poster child for clean training right? How many suspensions has he had?

Yadda, yadda, yadda...Asmussen :rolleyes: never had a postive, clean as a whistle....give me a break.

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:14 PM
Beyer once again comes across as nothing but a sore loser. That was a weak-ass race, which you often get in these restricted big-money races. Look at the 6-5 favorite? Beaten 6 lengths in his last start at even-money.

Gulfstream has always been a crazy track form wise. Horses who run lights out there can't run a lick anywhere else. Look at Any Limit, the Allen Jerkens horse. On Gulfstream, he's a graded stakes winner. Off it, he can't hit the board. Is anyone accusing Jerkens of juicing his horse?

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Excellent point.

LottaKash
01-27-2009, 01:19 PM
Good post. I said that Dutrow should be given the benefit of the doubt...that we need to wait and see if this horse continues to hold this latest form before anyone says Dutrow drugged him...as I mentioned, there are a lot of trainers that just don't know how to train...so it is indeed possible that Dutrow did all the right things with this horse to move him up...sans drugs.

JoaineD, I sense that you are so kind and loving in racing matters of the heart, and I love that about you, as I see this genuine caring from you all the time.....

But, with Dutrow in particular, I think you may be TOO kind...as he gets no benefit of the doubt from me, and many others share this view as well......He has this History, you know...

best,

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:20 PM
Where in the article does Beyer say he bet? He probably bet on the Dutrow if I had to guess. That doesn't mean as somebody that likes the sport he can't speak against someone who is very likely cheating and bad for the game.

Anyone comparing Jerkens to Dutrow needs to have his head examined

I don't think anyone is comparing Jerkins to Dutrow (there IS no comparison)...they are just trying to make a point about 'horses for courses'.
:)

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 01:22 PM
Yadda, yadda, yadda...Asmussen :rolleyes: never had a postive, clean as a whistle....give me a break.

Huh? When did I say Asmussen is clean as a whistle? he's a cheater too.

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 01:23 PM
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Excellent point.

What was excellent about it?

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:28 PM
I love it when they write stuff like this about BB, but never about Curlin...as if Curlin was never on steroids. Steve Asmussen (trainer of the year no less) would never allow something like that! :lol:

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

cj
01-27-2009, 01:28 PM
You call me out as if I haven't changed my ways in recent times. I am no longer the wide eyed rube of yesteryear.

And isn't this like the 10th time Beyer has written this kind of article?

I was just seeing if you were awake. :)

He has written this article before, and I hope he continues to write it until things change. Everyone else is in the "press" is afraid to talk about it.

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:34 PM
Huh? When did I say Asmussen is clean as a whistle? he's a cheater too.

Okie-Dokie, then!!!

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 01:38 PM
Okie-Dokie, then!!!

I'm confused. What did Asmussen have to do with what I said originally?

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:38 PM
JoaineD, I sense that you are so kind and loving in racing matters of the heart, and I love that about you, as I see this genuine caring from you all the time.....

But, with Dutrow in particular, I think you may be TOO kind...as he gets no benefit of the doubt from me, and many others share this view as well......He has this History, you know...

best,

:blush: thanks, LottaKash.... and maybe I am being too kind about Dutrow...but until he gets another positive, or we see wether or not this particular horse falls by the wayside, no one can say wether or not he was drugged...so, I continue my stand...benefit of the doubt.
I also think if his Beyer had been lower (a ridiculous number for this horse and the type race he won)...maybe this discussion wouldn't even be happening?

:) :) :)

TEJAS KIDD
01-27-2009, 01:44 PM
It's racing own fault, they keep increasing the purses, which intices the cheaters to look for an edge. Cut the purses by 50%, and the cheaters won't be able to afford to pay the vets.


That's why I play smaller tracks with small purses. The Super Trainers really cant afford to spend the money for such small purses, it's not worth it to them
Texas racing is a good gamble right now (other than the timing problems they've had recently). They have lower takeouts on Pick 3's 12% and Dime trifecta,superfectas and you can also get the rebate from PTC.
The Super Trainers have all but left the building, Asmussen,Calhoun,Autrey have little to no stables at Retama. A couple of other trainers, pretty much left too, Cash Asmussen and John Locke have moved a majority of their stables to other states. We'll have to wait and see if they come back for Lone Star in April. I'm hoping they don't.

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:44 PM
I'm confused. What did Asmussen have to do with what I said originally?

Sorry to confuse you:eek: what Asmussen has to do with it is that he's just as guilty of drugging as Dutrow....and I didn't say you mentioned Asmussen...you called Dutrow the 'poster child', and i simply pointed out, he ain't the only one, and Asmussen has had more than his share.

OK??

joanied
01-27-2009, 01:51 PM
What was excellent about it?

That it was pointed out that some horses love a particular track, run great there, then crash and burn at another track.
And, repeating what I replied to in Cj's post.....there is no comparison between Dutrow and Jerkins (just in case you want to do battle over:) that too)

LottaKash
01-27-2009, 01:53 PM
:blush: thanks, LottaKash.... and maybe I am being too kind about Dutrow...but until he gets another positive, or we see wether or not this particular horse falls by the wayside, no one can say wether or not he was drugged...so, I continue my stand...benefit of the doubt.
I also think if his Beyer had been lower (a ridiculous number for this horse and the type race he won)...maybe this discussion wouldn't even be happening?

:) :) :)

Yeah, but it is Fun and it has all to do with what we all love......And perhaps the walls have ears, and they are listening to what bothers and troubles us all....Let the Truth lead the way....:jump:

best,

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 01:54 PM
Sorry to confuse you:eek: what Asmussen has to do with it is that he's just as guilty of drugging as Dutrow....and I didn't say you mentioned Asmussen...you called Dutrow the 'poster child', and i simply pointed out, he ain't the only one, and Asmussen has had more than his share.

OK??

Thanks for clearing it up. So Dutrow is guilty of drugging in the past, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt when a new acquisition of his runs a 117 beyer first out for him. And it's okay he cheats, because others do also. :rolleyes:

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 01:56 PM
That it was pointed out that some horses love a particular track, run great there, then crash and burn at another track.
And, repeating what I replied to in Cj's post.....there is no comparison between Dutrow and Jerkins (just in case you want to do battle over:) that too)

You must have missed later in the thread where that excellent point was proven incorrect. Either way, i'm not trying to argue with you, but I'm trying to understand why people continue to stick up for cheaters.

joanied
01-27-2009, 02:05 PM
You must have missed later in the thread where that excellent point was proven incorrect. Either way, i'm not trying to argue with you, but I'm trying to understand why people continue to stick up for cheaters.

"Thanks for clearing it up. So Dutrow is guilty of drugging in the past, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt when a new acquisition of his runs a 117 beyer first out for him. And it's okay he cheats, because others do also."

First quote...yes I did miss that:blush: regardless, we all know some horses run great at certain tracks, and not at others...
and, this is important...I am NOT defending cheaters...for cryin' out loud, why would anyone do that!!!!
I am simply saying...innocent until proven guilty...and the industry had better get serious about drugging...right now. Hard penalties for anyone cheating...whoever they are.

slew101
01-27-2009, 02:06 PM
Six of her last eight races outside Gulfstream, she spit the bit, and bet heavily in most of those starts. My comment where she can't hit the board outside Gulfstream was wrong, so you're right.

My point was her form moves way, way up at Gulfstream. Look at her last two starts. Up the track in graded races at Aqueduct and Keeneland. She shifts back to Gulfstream and runs a very good second.

Thank you for this post. It was truly most insightful. I always enjoy a post that is inaccurate both in opinion and in fact.

Any Limit won two Grade 3 Stakes at Gulfstream. She finished second in a Grade 2 at Gulfstream. She won a Grade 2 at Belmont and a Grade 2 at Saratoga ( where, coincidentally, she equalled her career highest Beyer fig ).

Next.

slew101
01-27-2009, 02:07 PM
Didn't Zito and Pletcher serve suspensions in the past year for positives?

[QUOTE=joanied]"Thanks for clearing it up. So Dutrow is guilty of drugging in the past, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt when a new acquisition of his runs a 117 beyer first out for him.

Charlie D
01-27-2009, 02:21 PM
Such distrust has corroded the very foundation of the sport. Honest owners are reluctant to invest in the game when they believe they can't compete with the cheaters. Many bettors have lost enthusiasm because the art of handicapping has become an exercise in guessing who has the best "juice." The public at large is alienated when it suspects that drugs are tainting the sport's greatest events. This is what happened in last year's Triple Crown series, and it could happen again in 2009.

:ThmbUp:

Great shame, such a Great Game, is ruined and made unattractive by these people

It also a Great shame those that run this Great Game allow them to continue doing the above

Bubba X
01-27-2009, 02:22 PM
Every time Dutrow or Assmussen or ONeill or a half dozen others win something big a lot of people bemoan the fact they are cheaters.

To all of you I ask, name 3 top trainers you can say are NOT cheaters.

And, once you do, so what? AS long as the penalties are just slaps of the wrists and as long as the rules are made to be broken, what do you honestly expect?

Beyer's article is just opinion. It's not like he got any quote from Dutrow on why the horse ran so well. Also, it's not as if he gave some context to his fairly disparaging comments about Wolfson by noting the work he did on the gelding he won the BCTurf with a few years back.

The fact that ANY trainer moved up a Kathy O'Connell horse several lengths is no real surprise. She doesn't run 600 horse a year at Calder because she's great.

karlskorner
01-27-2009, 02:43 PM
So far everyone has overlooked one thing. Gilbert G. Cambell, OWNER/BREEDER of This ones for Phil. Gilbert G. Cambell is an astute horseman, he chose to put his horse in charge of Richard Dutrow. Although he has several horses in K. O'Connell's barn, he has been noted to remove some to other barns when he felt Ms. O'Connell was not capable of training same. I am not sure when the transfer was made, but note the last 3 workouts schedule by Mr. Dutrow.

cj
01-27-2009, 02:52 PM
Astute horseman...too funny. He is so astute, it took him 8 starts as a 2 year old to figure out he needed a new trainer.

What a workout schedule. The last three scheduled 6 days apart at 4, 5, and 5 furlongs. What an ingenious schedule. I can't believe nobody else thought of it before. I can't wait to tell my friend at Charles Town about it so his big horse can go from running 60 Beyers to 96s!

Bubba X
01-27-2009, 03:08 PM
If your friend at Charles Town thinks workout schedules are the end all to training, he's probably lucky to have his horses running 60 figs.

Grits
01-27-2009, 03:10 PM
Karl, please straighten your post out, NO ONE, and God knows, not a horse has ever been put in charge of Richard Dutrow.

As the saying goes . . . . they broke the mold when they made . . . . this guy.

WinterTriangle
01-27-2009, 03:18 PM
A few people like Judge and JotB presented some objective information, which was helpful for me as a fledgling handicapper.

Is there is no way a horse with a change of trainer, the right trip factor, could cycle upwards or rapidly improve at just the right time to run their best race ever? Isn't it difficult to create a pattern analysis on lightly raced or young horses, or do all horses run consistent patterns and cycles like machines? Was there any explanation for the horse's previous Beyer being low?

I guess for me it's not so much giving Dutrow the benefit of a doubt out of the goodness of my heart as it was a lack of detailed, drill-down analysis of this horse's performance, as well as the other ones in that race, both in that race and in the others, until a few pages into the thread.

As a novice, I'm not equipped to make those analyses, so I depend on my reading here to learn those things. Most of this thread seemed to get off to a very speculative start, which is somewhat out of character on this board.:confused:

cj
01-27-2009, 03:22 PM
If your friend at Charles Town thinks workout schedules are the end all to training, he's probably lucky to have his horses running 60 figs.

That is what the previous poster implied. Did you miss that post?

cj
01-27-2009, 03:25 PM
A few people like Judge and JotB presented some objective information, which was helpful for me as a fledgling handicapper.

Is there is no way a horse with a change of trainer, the right trip factor, could cycle upwards or rapidly improve at just the right time to run their best race ever? Isn't it difficult to create a pattern analysis on lightly raced or young horses, or do all horses run consistent patterns and cycles like machines? Was there any explanation for the horse's previous Beyer being low?

I guess for me it's not so much giving Dutrow the benefit of a doubt out of the goodness of my heart as it was a lack of detailed, drill-down analysis of this horse's performance, as well as the other ones in that race, both in that race and in the others, until a few pages into the thread.

As a novice, I'm not equipped to make those analyses, so I depend on my reading here to learn those things. Most of this thread seemed to get off to a very speculative start, which is somewhat out of character on this board.:confused:

This horse had already started 8 times. The horse had won a few races easily. There is a big difference between improving and running 15 lengths better than you did winning by 6, or 16 lengths over your WIN in a 60k stakes race.

Andy Beyer is no novice. Do you think he did a detailed analysis before writing the article? He only has so much space to write a column, but I would bet anything he did the very research you ask about and hints at as much in the column.

Charlie D
01-27-2009, 03:43 PM
When a 3-year-old delivers a phenomenal early-season performance, racing fans get excited. They hope that the youngster will be a star of the future, maybe a Kentucky Derby winner, maybe even the Triple Crown winner that the sport has awaited for decades.


The above is what should be our reaction to this performance, but because of the distrust people like Dutrow, Asmussen etc, etc have created we get the reaction below
But after a gelding named This Ones for Phil scored a remarkable victory Saturday at Gulfstream Park, many fans - or at least the cynical ones - had a different reaction. This Ones for Phil epitomized what is wrong with the modern American racing game.




He may be using Dutrow's charge, but it's very good article by Mr Beyer imho

It's broke and it needs fixing sooner rather than later

slewis
01-27-2009, 03:51 PM
The problem is that in order to punish someone either financially or with supension, you need a physical test to say that the horse ran with something illegal.

Racing needs to adopt new rules to punish 'form reversal' offenders even if they don't find a banned substance in the animal's system.

We all know that there are drugs that can mask other drugs...so, a 'clean' test on a form reversal runner doesn't hold a heck of a lot of water as far as the exploited fans go.

We also need to make sure we don't punish a trainer for 'moving up' a runner that was just trained by someone incompetent. The move up trainer shouldn't be punished because the first person didn't know how to put a bridle on a horse.

In this day and age, the skill of the current training crop is, on the whole, extremely good. Most trainers have the ability to use current technology and a qualified vet. There are very few trainers out there who are SO incompetent that another trainer will just move their horse up 15 lengths overnight.

There might need to be retrospective punishments. If this Dutrow horse in question goes on to consistently run Beyer figs in the 100s and turns into a top horse, than this was obviously the case of a top horse who just underachieved in a bad barn.

But, if this one reversal turns out to be a one hit wonder and the horse then goes back to his previous races and never duplicates that 'explosion' than someone can go back months later and finger that one race and issue a punishment.

Lots to think about, lots to discuss.

Rileyup,

Regarding your form reversal punishment.... please recant and tell everyone you were just kidding.

the little guy
01-27-2009, 03:59 PM
If your friend at Charles Town thinks workout schedules are the end all to training, he's probably lucky to have his horses running 60 figs.


Apparently Rick Dutrow would disagree with you as here are his quotes for DRF regarding the improvement his new charge showed.....


When asked to explain This Ones for Phil's sudden improvement, Dutrow said one of the answers could be found in the little black bag sitting just outside the tack room. He then reached into his bag and pulled out . . . his training chart.

"I decided not to pound on him in the morning," he said. "See the chart. I just jogged him between breezes, then blew him out a little bit the morning of the race. He also just might like this track."

Bubba X
01-27-2009, 04:03 PM
Apparently Rick Dutrow would disagree with you as here are his quotes for DRF regarding the improvement his new charge showed.....


When asked to explain This Ones for Phil's sudden improvement, Dutrow said one of the answers could be found in the little black bag sitting just outside the tack room. He then reached into his bag and pulled out . . . his training chart.

"I decided not to pound on him in the morning," he said. "See the chart. I just jogged him between breezes, then blew him out a little bit the morning of the race. He also just might like this track."

Mayhaps, yes. Mayhaps, no.

the little guy
01-27-2009, 04:10 PM
The fact that ANY trainer moved up a Kathy O'Connell horse several lengths is no real surprise. She doesn't run 600 horse a year at Calder because she's great.




Todd Pletcher ( who I guess according you must not even be ANY trainer ) bought a promising 3YO named Check it Twice from Kathleen O'Connell early in 2008. The horse didn't run again until September at Belmont and ran a non-threatening third. Now, granted this was obviously ( in retrospect ) a poor purchase, but perhaps it isn't as easy to improve on Kathleen O'Connell as you are suggesting. She always seemed like a pretty good horseman ( or horsewoman ) to me.

cj
01-27-2009, 04:13 PM
Exactly, she does just fine. Every time one of these super trainers improves a horse by a furlong or so, it is implied the super trainer is all knowing and so much smarter than everyone else.

the little guy
01-27-2009, 04:18 PM
Mayhaps, yes. Mayhaps, no.


You wanted a quote from Dutrow, when you got one and it disproved your smug prior response to CJ, you made this response?

" Oops " would have sufficed.

Bubba X
01-27-2009, 04:43 PM
Todd Pletcher ( who I guess according you must not even be ANY trainer ) bought a promising 3YO named Check it Twice from Kathleen O'Connell early in 2008. The horse didn't run again until September at Belmont and ran a non-threatening third. Now, granted this was obviously ( in retrospect ) a poor purchase, but perhaps it isn't as easy to improve on Kathleen O'Connell as you are suggesting. She always seemed like a pretty good horseman ( or horsewoman ) to me.I remember Check it Twice. I believe he got hurt in training after the purchase. Cigar Man didn't sell (they tried) out of that same group. He didn't do much after that. I also remember Bettarun Fast, which won a stake or two after moving out of her barn.

So, I suppose I agree that any one horse can be made an example of whatever point one's trying to make. I just do not think she is very good.

Bubba X
01-27-2009, 04:44 PM
You wanted a quote from Dutrow, when you got one and it disproved your smug prior response to CJ, you made this response?

" Oops " would have sufficed.lol. Thanks for the quote. I appreciate it. O'Connell Fan Club Membership line starts to your left.

the little guy
01-27-2009, 04:46 PM
I remember Check it Twice. I believe he got hurt in training after the purchase. Cigar Man didn't sell (they tried) out of that same group. He didn't do much after that. I also remember Bettarun Fast, which won a stake or two after moving out of her barn.

So, I suppose I agree that any one horse can be made an example of whatever point one's trying to make. I just do not think she is very good.

Maybe you're right, and probably know Florida racing better than I do, but I feel like when I played there in the mid-90s she did pretty well.

There are probably better examples of trainers that are easy to improve on. I guess if you asked Marty Wolfson he would say Bill Mott.

rjorio
01-27-2009, 04:46 PM
Without divine intervention, there is no legitimate way , This Ones for Phil , improved from an 81 Beyer to a 117 (THE FASTEST FIG EVER RECORDED BY A 3YO THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR). IF You follow NY racing you have seen Dutrow jump ups before,the horses fadeing into oblivion after several Herculean efforts. Dutrow is not a great horseman, maybe a great chemist , but not a great horseman.

Bubba X
01-27-2009, 04:52 PM
There are probably better examples of trainers that are easy to improve on. I guess if you asked Marty Wolfson he would say Bill Mott. Don't know what Wolfson would say but Miesque Approval probably wouldn't disagree.

the little guy
01-27-2009, 04:54 PM
Without divine intervention, there is no legitimate way , This Ones for Phil , improved from an 81 Beyer to a 117 (THE FASTEST FIG EVER RECORDED BY A 3YO THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR). IF You follow NY racing you have seen Dutrow jump ups before,the horses fadeing into oblivion after several Herculean efforts. Dutrow is not a great horseman, maybe a great chemist , but not a great horseman.


That may not be too fair. My guess is that regardless of whether or not Rick Dutrow is a cheater, he's a damn good trainer. The bad trainers who cheat rarely last very long. If I had to guess, if somebody waived a wand, and there was absolutely no more cheating, that Rick Dutrow would still win his fair share.

I'm neither absolving the cheaters nor stating any opinions on one person or another. I think the " cheating " is severely damaging the game, to be kind, but I also wouldn't be too dismissive of any successful trainers....whether I trust them or not.

Charlie D
01-27-2009, 05:07 PM
. I think the " cheating " is severely damaging the game

I think this is the point Mr Beyer is trying to get across in this article TLG.

rjorio
01-27-2009, 05:10 PM
I understand that Richard Dutrow is an extremely competent trainer ,but if his cheating is endangering the welfare of his horses can he be considered a great horseman.

joanied
01-27-2009, 05:12 PM
That may not be too fair. My guess is that regardless of whether or not Rick Dutrow is a cheater, he's a damn good trainer. The bad trainers who cheat rarely last very long. If I had to guess, if somebody waived a wand, and there was absolutely no more cheating, that Rick Dutrow would still win his fair share.

I'm neither absolving the cheaters nor stating any opinions on one person or another. I think the " cheating " is severely damaging the game, to be kind, but I also wouldn't be too dismissive of any successful trainers....whether I trust them or not.

Well said.:ThmbUp:

the little guy
01-27-2009, 05:24 PM
I think this is the point Mr Beyer is trying to get across in this article TLG.


I'm very well aware of that. Thanks.

ralph_the_cat
01-27-2009, 05:30 PM
Lava Man perhaps? Trained by Doug O'Neill.

No Im talkn about another one, before some of us were born or atleast in our diapers... forget his name, someone brought him up on another forum... one of the great rags to riches stories from years ago...

as far as Lava Man
DOug didnt have success right away, it took time, he figured the horse out, heard the horse had terrible feet/coffin joint problems... Lava Man never really got burnt out if you think about it... he ran game for years... age caught up with him, he still coulda ran big in lesser races at his old age... IMO, Lava Man is a bad example for those that want to cry cheater... he really never got sour, he ran big for years once he got right...

ralph_the_cat
01-27-2009, 05:34 PM
This is a little off topic & btw I agree with Beyer. I was contemplating playing the late pick 4 at GP on Sunshine Millions Day when perusing the aforementioned race I thought, 'I gotta use this horse prominently...1st time Dutrowjuice.' Accept the juice and don't try to fight it when the powers that be aren't.


There's a theory about why certain runners like Lava Man, General Challenge and Senor Swinger only performed well in Southern California. In the medication column of your past performance profile you'll note other states like KY of FL only feature an L, but in CA it features an LB.

B, bute, its so regularly used they stopped listing it in programs for most tracks...

sonnyp
01-27-2009, 05:47 PM
I understand that Richard Dutrow is an extremely competent trainer ,but if his cheating is endangering the welfare of his horses can he be considered a great horseman.

are these great horsemen ? (pardon the spelling)

oscar barrera
"pistol pete" ferriola
juan serrey
gaspar moschera

A. Pineda
01-27-2009, 05:50 PM
... and what was that super horse that started out a claimer back in the day... considered one of the best claimers before our time, forget his name, but he went on to win a couple graded stakes, the name will come to me... losers have been crying "cheater" since the beginning of man...

John Henry was a good one...

Charlie D
01-27-2009, 05:53 PM
I'm very well aware of that. Thanks.


Don't think i stated you were not aware, but thanks for telling me you were

JustRalph
01-27-2009, 05:58 PM
I still can't get over the horse went from an 81 to 117

That ought to be like a shot in the head with a sledgehammer.......... somebody find me another horse that has done that?

How many 117's have been run the last five years?

ralph_the_cat
01-27-2009, 06:02 PM
I still can't get over the horse went from an 81 to 117

That ought to be like a shot in the head with a sledgehammer.......... somebody find me another horse that has done that?

How many 117's have been run the last five years?

IS the 117 even accurate?...

cj
01-27-2009, 06:02 PM
I don't see any evidence at all that it isn't accurate, and at the very least in the ballpark.

BombsAway Bob
01-27-2009, 06:35 PM
I still can't get over the horse went from an 81 to 117
That ought to be like a shot in the head with a sledgehammer.......... somebody find me another horse that has done that?
How many 117's have been run the last five years?
is there a "formulator" capable way of looking for
"Biggest Beyer increases after seven or more races" by a trainer?

point given
01-27-2009, 07:06 PM
Apparently Rick Dutrow would disagree with you as here are his quotes for DRF regarding the improvement his new charge showed.....


When asked to explain This Ones for Phil's sudden improvement, Dutrow said one of the answers could be found in the little black bag sitting just outside the tack room. He then reached into his bag and pulled out . . . his training chart.

"I decided not to pound on him in the morning," he said. "See the chart. I just jogged him between breezes, then blew him out a little bit the morning of the race. He also just might like this track."

Thanks for the DRF quote . I guess liking the track was it, as his workouts clearly showed. :rolleyes: Gourgeous George your next up in the ring. Make it look nice, we're on national tv .

Indulto
01-27-2009, 07:55 PM
No Im talkn about another one, before some of us were born or atleast in our diapers... forget his name, someone brought him up on another forum... one of the great rags to riches stories from years ago... Stymie, perhaps?are these great horsemen ? (pardon the spelling)

oscar barrera
"pistol pete" ferriola
juan serrey
gaspar moscheraI guess you're not buying Mochera's statement in an interview a few months ago to the effect that drugs drove him out of the game. ;)

I thought I'd ask both of you, rtc and sp, what you feel primarily keeps most trainers from cheating? Is it concern for the horses, ethics, lack of nerve, owners unwilling to spend money, owners unable to spend money, owners with ethics, other?

Dahoss9698
01-27-2009, 09:14 PM
That may not be too fair. My guess is that regardless of whether or not Rick Dutrow is a cheater, he's a damn good trainer. The bad trainers who cheat rarely last very long. If I had to guess, if somebody waived a wand, and there was absolutely no more cheating, that Rick Dutrow would still win his fair share.

I'm neither absolving the cheaters nor stating any opinions on one person or another. I think the " cheating " is severely damaging the game, to be kind, but I also wouldn't be too dismissive of any successful trainers....whether I trust them or not.

I think you make a very good point here. Regardless of whatever cheating I or anyone else thinks, it's hard to not realize guys like Dutrow, Asmussen, Wolfson, etc are very good trainers.

classhandicapper
01-27-2009, 09:21 PM
When I handicapped the race I noticed that the horse was first time Dutrow and felt that he might wind up being a good value at GP because the crowd there might not be as astute as the fans in NY where they've seen him move up dozens of horses. I considered making a wager, but decided against it because I felt that even if the horse moved up, he would probably not move up enough to beat the favorite. So I was quite upset by the result and the generous exacta payoff.

I'm not sure what to say about this kind of thing.

It's not that unusual for a winter/spring 3YO to improve dramatically out of nowhere. If the horse wasn't trained by Dutrow, we probably wouldn't even be having this discussion. While not likely, it's possible that some natural improvement combined with superior horsemanship and that lead to an explosive effort. He is a great trainer too. It's also possible he cheated. However, until someone catches him with the real move up juice, we should probably just be playing his new horses at generous prices. :bang:

pandy
01-27-2009, 09:22 PM
[QUOTE=Indulto]Stymie, perhaps?I guess you're not buying Mochera's statement in an interview a few months ago to the effect that drugs drove him out of the game. ;)

As far as I know Moschera didn't have any positives, these other guys have plenty. Also, Moschera kept quite a few horses racing and winning for a long time, which is not the profile of a drug trainer.

twindouble
01-27-2009, 09:32 PM
Look guys, I respect your knowledge about this horse, that horse, this trainer, that trainer and their history of suspensions or lack of. For many years now I've picked up on horses that had extraordinary improvement that was way out of the norm, ESP older horses and no they all didn't come from the hands of a new trainer. My early predictions proved out because it was a very simple deduction. That was, we are a drug culture and that would spill over into racing. Anyone who thinks that isn't a fact, well what can I say other than being rude.

Don't include me in that drug culture, I can't remember the last time I took a pill. On second thought yes I can but I can't talk about.

Even though I take advantage of the Beyer figures by ignoring them I agree with him, he should continue to pound it home. Common sense told me his figures would be in trouble when drugs took over the game. I'm a gambler so I take advantage of whatever I can to make a buck. Handicapping the thieves go with the game but at this day and age it's got way out of hand. Not only for players including the horses. Not to mention the extremely negative effect it has on racing as a whole.

Trainers experimenting with different ways to make a horse run faster and longer is nothing new, it's the degree of it today that's sickening to all of us.

Good luck,

T.D.

LottaKash
01-27-2009, 09:35 PM
I think you make a very good point here. Regardless of whatever cheating I or anyone else thinks, it's hard to not realize guys like Dutrow, Asmussen, Wolfson, etc are very good trainers.

Quite true, and there are numerous very nice people in prison that are still willing to steal your cash when you are not looking......A cheater is a cheater....I say do it right, or get out, and stop stealing our hard earned kash.....or go to jail and be with all the nice people there......

best,

the little guy
01-27-2009, 09:43 PM
Quite true, and there are numerous very nice people in prison that are still willing to steal your cash when you are not looking......A cheater is a cheater....I say do it right, or get out, and stop stealing our hard earned kash.....or go to jail and be with all the nice people there......

best,


Where exactly did anybody defend cheating....whether the trainer is talented or not?

pandy
01-27-2009, 09:50 PM
It's very difficult to judge someone's ability when they cheat. Allen Jerkens, a great trainer who I believe has 0 positives and has trained for about 50 years, wins around 15% and has had meets where he was hot and won 25% or so. These other guys win 25 to 30% all the time. But if they didn't use drugs, could they win around 15%? Or would be it 9%? Hard to know, but not hard to know that Allen Jerkens is a great trainer.

That's why, as a turf and harness writer, I rarely praise trainers. I'm not going to heap praise on someone when I'm not sure if the person is using drugs. With Jerkens, I'm comfortable making the call. He's a great trainer.

sonnyp
01-27-2009, 09:54 PM
Stymie, perhaps?I guess you're not buying Mochera's statement in an interview a few months ago to the effect that drugs drove him out of the game. ;)

I thought I'd ask both of you, rtc and sp, what you feel primarily keeps most trainers from cheating? Is it concern for the horses, ethics, lack of nerve, owners unwilling to spend money, owners unable to spend money, owners with ethics, other?

plain and simple, having access to the drugs that will really work and still pass the test is the most prized and best kept secret on the backstretch. if every trainer had the "juice" the playing field would, again, be level.

since you asked, allow me to expound a little. beating the test is the key to success today. it is however a constantly changing game. drug research, especially in foreign countries {austrailia, new zealand etc.), provides a constant influx of new, designer drugs to remedy any number of equine maladys.
chlenbuterol, THE BRONCIODIALATOR, came out of germany at first and i remember guys selling cheaper immitations but the "good" stuff always had labels printed in german.

the tests are always changed to catch up to the new drugs but they never do. harness racing was using milkshakes to retard the buildup of lactic acid in a horses system (fatigue factor) at least 5 yrs. before it started in the runners.( you probably don't want to hear this, but the harness guys are FAR BETTER horsemen than the thorobred guys. much more hands on ). Question for you : which prominant n y thoro owner won every major harness race before he switched to runners and why ?

as the tests catch up to a specific drug, a trainer must go on to a new one or, all of a sudden, become just another face in the crowd. another question : what trainer dominated grade 1's from coast to coast 20 to 30 yrs. ago to the extent he was a legend ? all of a sudden, he couldn't win a race let alone a grade 1. did he get stupid all of a sudden ? did he lose his touch ? was he no longer a "horse whisperer ?" maybe he just couldn't find a new edge or had made so much it simply was no longer worth the risk.

to answer your question, there are many reasons why all trainers dont cheat. you mentioned all or most in your question and i applaud those guys.

but allow me to emphasize, for those who aspire to the ranks of "super trainer", and intend on playing by the rules, the road will be impossible to navigate.

proximity
01-27-2009, 11:02 PM
It's very difficult to judge someone's ability when they cheat. Allen Jerkens, a great trainer who I believe has 0 positives and has trained for about 50 years, wins around 15% and has had meets where he was hot and won 25% or so. These other guys win 25 to 30% all the time. But if they didn't use drugs, could they win around 15%? Or would be it 9%? Hard to know, but not hard to know that Allen Jerkens is a great trainer.
.

you're right about this and of course as the supertrainers' %s would decline w/out the drugs, the %s of the legitimate trainers (like jerkens) would then rise w/out the "competition." fortunately mr jerkens has already secured his spot as a training legend. the actual top trainers of today may never be so lucky.....

Dahoss9698
01-28-2009, 12:39 AM
Quite true, and there are numerous very nice people in prison that are still willing to steal your cash when you are not looking......A cheater is a cheater....I say do it right, or get out, and stop stealing our hard earned kash.....or go to jail and be with all the nice people there......

best,

A brief look at my posts in this thread should show how I'm not defending these guys at all. I just agreed with the opinion that regardless of whatever illegal things they may or may not be doing, most of these guys can train, and well.

Indulto
01-28-2009, 01:20 AM
plain and simple, having access to the drugs that will really work and still pass the test is the most prized and best kept secret on the backstretch. if every trainer had the "juice" the playing field would, again, be level.

since you asked, allow me to expound a little. beating the test is the key to success today. it is however a constantly changing game. drug research, especially in foreign countries {austrailia, new zealand etc.), provides a constant influx of new, designer drugs to remedy any number of equine maladys.
chlenbuterol, THE BRONCIODIALATOR, came out of germany at first and i remember guys selling cheaper immitations but the "good" stuff always had labels printed in german.

the tests are always changed to catch up to the new drugs but they never do. harness racing was using milkshakes to retard the buildup of lactic acid in a horses system (fatigue factor) at least 5 yrs. before it started in the runners.( you probably don't want to hear this, but the harness guys are FAR BETTER horsemen than the thorobred guys. much more hands on ). Question for you : which prominant n y thoro owner won every major harness race before he switched to runners and why ?

as the tests catch up to a specific drug, a trainer must go on to a new one or, all of a sudden, become just another face in the crowd. another question : what trainer dominated grade 1's from coast to coast 20 to 30 yrs. ago to the extent he was a legend ? all of a sudden, he couldn't win a race let alone a grade 1. did he get stupid all of a sudden ? did he lose his touch ? was he no longer a "horse whisperer ?" maybe he just couldn't find a new edge or had made so much it simply was no longer worth the risk.

to answer your question, there are many reasons why all trainers dont cheat. you mentioned all or most in your question and i applaud those guys.

but allow me to emphasize, for those who aspire to the ranks of "super trainer", and intend on playing by the rules, the road will be impossible to navigate.If I understand you correctly, then restricted distribution of the "safest" and currently most effective performance enhancers for highly-profitable sale by their suppliers is responsible for their continued dominance.

One might then wonder how organized such suppliers are, how one becomes a customer, and whether one even has the option of stopping once one is accepted?

My guess as the answer to your second question is Lukas. I have no clue as to the first.

Charlie D
01-28-2009, 01:48 AM
for those who aspire to the ranks of "super trainer", and intend on playing by the rules, the road will be impossible to navigate.


So aspiring trainer then maybe has to do similar to M Dickinson, use [insert drug name ] to be competitive

Sad state racing has got itself into when a trainer has to do that innit

LottaKash
01-28-2009, 02:12 AM
A brief look at my posts in this thread should show how I'm not defending these guys at all. I just agreed with the opinion that regardless of whatever illegal things they may or may not be doing, most of these guys can train, and well.

Hey Hoss, I realize that & was just goofin on ya.

But a question....Does Dutrow or any of his compatriots Smile when they Pick Your Pockets ?..........Thieves do, I resent them, and it is amazing how politcally correct we have become, when we say things that lean toward exoneration, "well, he did steal from us, but he IS is good trainer"........Baloney, and so what if they are good trainers, if they are caught then they are criminals and should be discarded from the scene.....Pickpockets go to Jail when caught, but not these guys...It is form of stealing, and it is against the law..

I am a decent handicapper, so it makes me wonder sometimes about how much more money I would have, if not for these guys......I wonder ?

best,

PaceAdvantage
01-28-2009, 03:08 AM
Is it just easier to point out Asmussen won trainer of the year, as if that somehow means it's okay what these guys are doing?Not my point at all...

BM1947
01-28-2009, 04:14 AM
I guess Im not as smart as all you guys are so I would like 1 ( one ) questioned answered, please. This question is reguarding all the well know trainers ( not the ham & egg guys at beu or sun or any small time track)
the question :

What exactly do they gain by "cheating" ????


remember all these trainers earn in excess of 1 million a yr
all the owners are very wealthy
if they are known "cheaters" in the racing community no one will buy or claim a horse from them


So, please tell me what they gain by cheating


thanking you in advance for all the great answers I will get to enhance my weak knowledge base

DerbyTrail
01-28-2009, 04:50 AM
So far everyone has overlooked one thing. Gilbert G. Cambell, OWNER/BREEDER of This ones for Phil. Gilbert G. Cambell is an astute horseman, he chose to put his horse in charge of Richard Dutrow. Although he has several horses in K. O'Connell's barn, he has been noted to remove some to other barns when he felt Ms. O'Connell was not capable of training same. I am not sure when the transfer was made, but note the last 3 workouts schedule by Mr. Dutrow.
Actually, the horse was sold 3 months ago to Paul Pompa. Campbell had nothing to do with the move of the horse to Dutrow. Gulfstream botched the ownership listing and silks Saturday.

the little guy
01-28-2009, 07:31 AM
Actually, the horse was sold 3 months ago to Paul Pompa. Campbell had nothing to do with the move of the horse to Dutrow. Gulfstream botched the ownership listing and silks Saturday.


Karl often has trouble getting his facts straight.

Zman179
01-28-2009, 10:50 AM
"Win if you can, lose if you must, but always cheat."

- Jesse Ventura

slewis
01-28-2009, 10:53 AM
It's very difficult to judge someone's ability when they cheat. Allen Jerkens, a great trainer who I believe has 0 positives and has trained for about 50 years, wins around 15% and has had meets where he was hot and won 25% or so. These other guys win 25 to 30% all the time. But if they didn't use drugs, could they win around 15%? Or would be it 9%? Hard to know, but not hard to know that Allen Jerkens is a great trainer.

That's why, as a turf and harness writer, I rarely praise trainers. I'm not going to heap praise on someone when I'm not sure if the person is using drugs. With Jerkens, I'm comfortable making the call. He's a great trainer.

Well, your half correct.

Jerkens IS and will always be a great trainer (In my opinion the greatest).
As far as using drugs and getting positives.... your 100% incorrect.

cj
01-28-2009, 11:50 AM
What exactly do they gain by "cheating" ????


1) Money
2) Clients
3) Money

Dahoss9698
01-28-2009, 12:53 PM
Hey Hoss, I realize that & was just goofin on ya.

But a question....Does Dutrow or any of his compatriots Smile when they Pick Your Pockets ?..........Thieves do, I resent them, and it is amazing how politcally correct we have become, when we say things that lean toward exoneration, "well, he did steal from us, but he IS is good trainer"........Baloney, and so what if they are good trainers, if they are caught then they are criminals and should be discarded from the scene.....Pickpockets go to Jail when caught, but not these guys...It is form of stealing, and it is against the law..

I am a decent handicapper, so it makes me wonder sometimes about how much more money I would have, if not for these guys......I wonder ?

best,

Dude, you are preaching to the choir here. I'd like to see them all clean and if not gone. But, since we've chosen to bet our money on this sport, until they do something about this nonsense, we have to adjust and react.

classhandicapper
01-28-2009, 01:00 PM
I don't follow GP figures very closely, but has anyone considerd the possibility that Beyer has the race a lot too fast to begin with. I realize it looks like an especially fast race (especially when compared to the filly sprint later on the card), but this would not be the first time that track maintenance, wind, starting gate placement, teletimer malfunction, a change in track moisture etc... lead to strangely fast/slow final time that didn't fit with the rest of the day.

I just took another quick look at that field and I think a figure of 100 (+/- a little) would certainly be reasonable if that race was analyzed in isolation. It's certainly possible that some of the well beaten horses coming off artificial surfaces didn't hold their form at all and only the top 4 ran their race. A figure of 100 (+/- a little) would not be an unreasonable interpretation of that result and would also NOT provoke the kind of reaction we are getting about this horse or Dutrow.

cj
01-28-2009, 01:08 PM
I don't follow GP figures very closely, but has anyone considerd the possibility that Beyer has the race a lot too fast to begin with. I realize it looks like an especially fast race (especially when compared to the filly sprint later on the card), but this would not be the first time that track maintenance, wind, starting gate placement, teletimer malfunction, a change in track moisture etc... lead to strangely fast/slow final time that didn't fit with the rest of the day.

I just took another quick look at that field and I think a figure of 100 (+/- a little) would certainly be reasonable if that race was analyzed in isolation. It's certainly possible that some of the well beaten horses coming off artificial surfaces didn't hold their form at all and only the top 4 ran their race. A figure of 100 (+/- a little) would not be an unreasonable interpretation of that result and would also NOT provoke the kind of reaction we are getting about this horse or Dutrow.

Come on, you know I considered it. I've watched the replay, checked the gate, and even looked for signs of increased wind. There is nothing to indicate this race figure isn't accurate. All the races before and after the race in question fall right in line.

If you consider the maturity from earlier races and the fact that synthetic surfaces come back slower than dirt, none of the top four horses, save the winner, had any big jump up in figures.

classhandicapper
01-28-2009, 01:56 PM
Come on, you know I considered it. I've watched the replay, checked the gate, and even looked for signs of increased wind. There is nothing to indicate this race figure isn't accurate. All the races before and after the race in question fall right in line.

If you consider the maturity from earlier races and the fact that synthetic surfaces come back slower than dirt, none of the top four horses, save the winner, had any big jump up in figures.

CJ,

I' sure you looked at the day. :ThmbUp:

I am talking about looking at the race in isolation just for the sake of trying to make sense of it because I'm sure you will agree that figures of 117 and 112 for January 3YOs is quite unusual. We aren't just talking about the Dutrow horse here.

In isolation if you look at the prior Beyer figures of the top 4 horses and assume all the CA and other artificial horses either hated dirt or the ship to Florida (not really an unreasonable assumption), the top 4 fall into line pretty well at a figure of 100 or a little higher.

Kelly Leak has been running peak figures in the low mid 80s on turf/artificial. There was no certainty he would like sprinting on dirt.

Ju Jitsu Jak just ran a peak race of 86, loose on the lead, at 5 1/2 furlongs, against weaker horses, and dueled a superior horse in this race.

I see nothing unreasonable about assuming they both ran a race in the mid 80s again. They finished 7 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Depending on the beaten length chart you use (another issue) that translates into about 15-18 Beyer points and a winning figure of around 100 +/- a little.

A figure in the high 90s would not be out of line for a very fast horse like You Luckie Mann either. He peaked in a 5 1/2 race with a 107 but ran in the mid 90s stalking at 6F last out and dueled at 6F this time out.

The most likely figure for the winner is somewhat arbitrary because we know the horse moved up, but what makes more sense, 99-103 or 117 based on prior efforts?

Even the 5th place finisher, Billionaire Bob who was beaten around 20 lengths in what was not an especially competitive effort had a peak dirt/artifical figure of 66 against non-entities and was 46-1 in this race. A figure of 100 or so for this race would translate into a figure in the upper 50s or low 60s depending on the beaten length chart used. I don't even think that's an unreasonable figure for this horse in a race in which it was totally overmatched and outrun by superior horses.

I understand that your figures are not perfectly in sync with Beyer's, there are pace issues, young horses sometimes improve etc... I also understand your reluctance to arbitrarily lower a figure. But I find 117 and 112 for the top two no more logical than the assumption that a lot of CA based horses and artificial/turf specialists ran a clinker in a tough 3YO dirt sprint in Flordia on the ship.

I don't know what the right figure is. Perhaps 117 is most logical. But I've seen strange races like this in the past that proved to be wrong.

I don't think I'll be playing any of these horses back at short prices based on a 117 Beyer until I see some evidence that this wasn't a fluke final time. If the prices are huge, perhaps I'll reconsider. ;)

But the greater point is "IF" (big if) Beyer and others have this race much too fast because something freaky happened with the track, then a lot this debate is moot.

I would be interested to see how fast TG, RAGs, and some other figure makers made the race and am looking forward to the next starts of some of these horse (hopefully all on dirt at 6F).

cj
01-28-2009, 02:05 PM
I'm certainly not advocating betting the top couple back.

This is a post I made elsewhere talking about the top 4:

Just so we can be clear, here are the Beyers earned by the top 4 in the race, including Saturday, most recent first (Brown-Dirt, Green-Turf, Blue-Synthetic):

This One's for Phil: 117, 76, 75, 66, 79, 71, 81, 33, 43
You Lucky Mann: 112, 93, 107, 79, 79, 84
Kelly Leak: 98,84, 83, 57, 82, 73
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 86, 60, 67

Here are the figures if you build in the adjustment Beyer recommends for maturity, about 1.5 points per month:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,86, 86, 64, 90, 84
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

Then, there is the turf and synthetics come back slower, so we can adjust a few of those to the same scale as dirt:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,88, 88, 59, 93, 85
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

When adjusting for those things, only one horse really "jumped" in that race, the winner. The difference from the previous top:

This One's for Phil: +27
You Lucky Mann: 0
Kelly Leak: +5
Ju Jitsu Jax: +7

Keep in mind, under normal circumstances, the winner was the least likely to improve with 8 starts under his built. The others make a lot more sense considering fewer races and/or surface switches.

One other thing, this doesn't even get into the pace aspect. None of the others really improved much at all in my opinion if you consider that part of the equation.

For the record, I gave this race a 106 pace, 117 speed.

LottaKash
01-28-2009, 02:44 PM
Dude, you are preaching to the choir here. I'd like to see them all clean and if not gone. But, since we've chosen to bet our money on this sport, until they do something about this nonsense, we have to adjust and react.

To Dahoss and others, my passion for the Thieves and my $Bottom-Line always gets me going, and to a fault....sorry for preaching, I was venting...

I play the game despite this, as well, but occasionally I do find races, pace-wise, speed wise, and finish wise that make no sense at all, and I do have an open mind on this, still, I always wonder about those certain races, and I guess we all do....My win% is still rewarding but still, those funny races ?

Back in the 60's a very good friend did 5-years for smokin a "J", and these guys keep coming up positive from time to time, and they are still at it.....That bothers me a bit, that's all....

best,

best,

DrugS
01-28-2009, 02:46 PM
I guess Im not as smart as all you guys are so I would like 1 ( one ) questioned answered, please. This question is reguarding all the well know trainers ( not the ham & egg guys at beu or sun or any small time track)
the question :

What exactly do they gain by "cheating" ????


remember all these trainers earn in excess of 1 million a yr
all the owners are very wealthy
if they are known "cheaters" in the racing community no one will buy or claim a horse from them


So, please tell me what they gain by cheating


thanking you in advance for all the great answers I will get to enhance my weak knowledge base

Panama Lewis was considered one of the greatest boxing trainers of all-time and was in the prime of his career as a trainer when he got caught loading gloves.

You can fast forward to 3 minutes and 30 seconds in and see how he got caught...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI1RB6JYgfU

In this case - his fighter was a soft puncher Luis Resto. He defeated an undefeated up and coming prospect named Irish Billy Collins. Panama cut the padding away from Resto's glove and had plaster inserted under his knuckle wrap.

The result was Collins losing his first pro fight - coming out of it looking like this..

http://www.braggingrightscorner.com/billycollins.jpg

Collins had permanentley blurred vision that ended his boxing career. 9 months later he drove his car off of a cliff killing himself in an apperant suicide.

Panama Lewis was only caught because his fighter was stupid enough to shake the hand of Collins father/cornerman with the loaded glove after the fight.

You are confused why a top horse racing trainer would give an animal a performance enhancer that A.) might not even be illegal or B.) might not even be detectable...

Why would the best boxing trainer in the game cheat to such a brazen extreme that it would ruin the lives of other humans?

I hope you were being naive and not sarcastic when asking that. I detected sarcasam.

Grits
01-28-2009, 02:56 PM
A photo can often drive a point home. Along with this story, I think you just did so, beautifully.

karlskorner
01-28-2009, 07:57 PM
It appears that the DAILY RACING FORM , GULFSTREAM PARK, JEREMY PLONK, EQUIBASE, BRIS, TRACKMASTER and 5k (more or less) of DRF readers were wrong about the true ownership of This One's for Phil, until corrected by TLG, at least I was in good company.

Still doesn't answer the question is Dutrow a cheater or a good trainer ? I am inclined to beliew his "little black bag" story as posted by TLG.

TurfRuler
01-28-2009, 08:10 PM
I have been comparing speed figures with class for several years. It is a part of my handicapping. There are a couple of comparision charts out on the net. In the case of This One for Phil I would have to give him a Grade 1 level with the 117 BSF. This One for Phil would now rank with such notable 2008 American and International thoroughbreds such as Curlin, New Approach, Raven's Pass, Zarkava, Duke of Marmalade, Big Brown, Conduit, Goldikova and Henrythenavigator. We are somewhat familiar with their accomplishments. Maybe, although I have my doubts, This One for Phil is the one and the trainer is one also if he expects us to believe at this time on that track the horse has become a phenom.

slewis
01-28-2009, 10:01 PM
It appears that the DAILY RACING FORM , GULFSTREAM PARK, JEREMY PLONK, EQUIBASE, BRIS, TRACKMASTER and 5k (more or less) of DRF readers were wrong about the true ownership of This One's for Phil, until corrected by TLG, at least I was in good company.

Still doesn't answer the question is Dutrow a cheater or a good trainer ? I am inclined to beliew his "little black bag" story as posted by TLG.

I know I have posted what I am about to post again, previously.....

I am not blind either....

But someone needs to explain this "little black bag" thing to me.

Dutrow sends two horses to Dubai and wins at a track with not only an absolute zero drug tolerance policy... but without lasix, and while sitting in South Fla. with Big Brown.

Next food for thought: Again a repeat....
I PHYSICALLY look at every horse, virtually every race at ALL 3 NYRA tracks.
(Im not talking about through binoculars, Im talking about getting within 10 feet or so, and I have TLG who will vouch for this because he's recently seen me outside in the frigid NY weather trying to get a close look).

Steve Asmussen's horses come in race after race after race looking sensational, even in winter when trainers struggle to keep horses looking sharp..

Question is .. how does he do this??? (since he is NEVER in NY in the winter).
Does he let his help in on the "black bag"??.

If so, why dont they go out on their own????

Everyone needs to except that these guys are REALLY good with GREAT programs. If their horses are getting "extra" help on occasion, maybe the tracks need to hire labs like in the olympics to catch them.
Until then..... enjoy the racing.

the little guy
01-28-2009, 10:17 PM
" Little Black Bag " was a reference that Dutrow himself made.....obviously he was joking around. You need to reread the part from the DRF article.

sonnyp
01-28-2009, 10:57 PM
make no mistake, the programs these guys develop are first rate. no expense is spared on feed, bedding, nutritional suppliments etc. which is the basis for a horse "looking good" . im sure it is reflected in their per diems which their owners gladly pay them but would gripe like hell if a lesser trainer tried to operate on that level.

dont sell the help short either. as you stated, these guys cant be everywhere. good backstretch help is at a premium these days. if you're a good groom you most likely would prefer to work for an outfit that offerd a % of the horses earnings, a chance to travel the country and perhaps the world.

the most unhearalded and abused is the second trainer. all the blame, no credit,
low pay. these are the most dedicated. look at the list that came from lukas and michelle nevin seems as though she'd take a bullet for dutrow.

last but not least, the vets. these guys have a relationship with a vet at every track they race at. on the backside the vets have reputations as big as the trainers.

take nothing away from the organizational skills of these guys they are very, very good at what they do...but it still doesn't equate to the level of dominance and the, often, dramatic manner in which it is achieved.

the little guy
01-28-2009, 11:12 PM
It appears that the DAILY RACING FORM , GULFSTREAM PARK, JEREMY PLONK, EQUIBASE, BRIS, TRACKMASTER and 5k (more or less) of DRF readers were wrong about the true ownership of This One's for Phil, until corrected by TLG, at least I was in good company.

Still doesn't answer the question is Dutrow a cheater or a good trainer ? I am inclined to beliew his "little black bag" story as posted by TLG.


I wasn't the one who corrected you. But, you knew that.

However, being that you intimated knowledge of the previous owner, and claim to always be in the paddock, it seems surprising that after Saturday you would still have thought the previous owner was the current owner.

DrugS
01-28-2009, 11:15 PM
Dutrow sends two horses to Dubai and wins at a track with not only an absolute zero drug tolerance policy... but without lasix, and while sitting in South Fla. with Big Brown.


Neither horses being suspicious Dutrow move-ups.

Benny The Bull ran Beyers of 111 and 108 in his final two starts for trainer Jeff Talley before being transferred to Dutrow.

Is it that hard to believe that he can win on the legit in Dubai in a race where the laughable Star Crowned was 3rd beaten 2 lengths? And you may say 'but Idiot Proof was 2nd!' ... but that was an off form version of Idiot Proof who was beaten at Turf Paradice by reformed claimer Tribesman in his prior start. Also - after running 2nd to BTB in Dubai - Idiot Proof has returned to America and has performed horrendously to say the very least.

As for Diamond Stripes .. a horse Dutrow had from the start .. he's a 340K yearling buy after originally selling for just 95K as a weanling. Pretty profitable pinhook and no doubt exceptionally good look young horse.

Anyway, he won the Godolphin mile over a field of busters. Elusive Warning - who still has allowance conditions was 2nd. The 3rd place finisher Don Renato was beaten just 2.5 lengths. That's the same Don Renato who was 11th beaten 22 lengths in a Saudi Arabian race with Wigberto Ramos riding just six weeks prior.

And if an eye opening Dutrow form reversal is to occur in a place like Dubai - what is going to stop the suspicious minds from thinking he has an edge with something that isn't detectable?



Next food for thought: Again a repeat....
I PHYSICALLY look at every horse, virtually every race at ALL 3 NYRA tracks.
(Im not talking about through binoculars, Im talking about getting within 10 feet or so, and I have TLG who will vouch for this because he's recently seen me outside in the frigid NY weather trying to get a close look).

Steve Asmussen's horses come in race after race after race looking sensational, even in winter when trainers struggle to keep horses looking sharp..

Question is .. how does he do this??? (since he is NEVER in NY in the winter).
Does he let his help in on the "black bag"??.

If so, why dont they go out on their own????

I personally don't believe Steve Asmussen is someone who performs awesome form reversals.

I think he is unfairly grouped with a bunch of trainers who have a much greater skills at performing miracles.

Why is he so unfairly grouped? because he's been caught doing some very shady stuff and he didn't exactly help himself out any with his performance on the HBO Inside Sports piece.

Here's Asmussen's year by year stats over the last five years:

2009: 40-for-211 (18% wins) $1.18 ROI
2008: (20% wins) $1.46 ROI
2007: (21% wins) $1.56 ROI
2006: (21% wins) $1.59 ROI
2005: (21% wins) $1.40 ROI

Since '05 he is 1,864-for-8,854 - (21% wins with a $1.48 ROI)

Considering the stock he gets .. consistantly being at 21% is in line with logic. He shows a weak 26% loss on the betting dollar - and while he does have a few eye opening form reversals if you think long and hard... when you consider the army of horses he's acquired over the last decade .. his 1st time with stable to dramatic form reversal ratio is awfully low.

The guys one great skill that awes me is with early season 2yo's going very short distances. His horses perform embarassingly poor on turf and synthetic surfaces.

As for why his horses may look different/better than other peoples horses? I don't know - but his training methods seem fairly different from a workout pattern standpoint. he gets fast horses to work a weekly diet of 4 furlongs in 53 and change breezes.

You'll even see modestly bred babies with those painfully slow works jump up and run off the screen going extreme sprint distances on debut.

magwell
01-28-2009, 11:38 PM
TLG your right, this horse has been with Dutrow for a couple of months from what i heard.

ralph_the_cat
01-28-2009, 11:58 PM
The problem with the average fan is that they really have no clue on how big of a difference a training program is from barn to barn... from training to $$$ put in... stable to stable its day to night... fans have this stupid idea that each trainer just sends the horse out every couple days to train... and "anyone could do it"... as well as that a great trainer cant improve off another great trainer, "they must be cheating, he shouldn't improve off him"... gross idea... these arent robots... few horses are running at 100%, every horse has a problem, every GREAT trainer fixes the problem, or at least improves it... Trainers dont openly admit how they improved a horse until years later... What was that ted west horse that improved big time... he later talked about how the horse had breathing issues and he had him on a "HIS" bleeders program... Trainers have training concepts you might call "secrets", that go beyond the simple idea... "hes cheating"... IF IT WAS EASY, everyone would do it... a great trainer is about being great at finding the problem and fixing it, and training the horse to be his best on race day, not the day before... but timed to explode at the right hour of the day through methods that the average fan couldnt even imagine... but ya, keep thinking its just about sending a horse out in the morning and the guys that win more cheat more... theres a thousand concepts the average fan cant even begin to understand... its not about 2 minute licks and "super drugs"

DrugS
01-29-2009, 12:35 AM
theres a thousand concepts the average fan cant even begin to understand...

Can you please atleast name 600 or 700 of them for us? Maybe Beyer is lurking here and you will be able to educate him as well as many others.

Ah .. horse trainers....

is there really any greater joy in the game then getting a taste of the bs they so freely spew?

How's that dangerous turf course down at Gulfstream been lately?

ralph_the_cat
01-29-2009, 01:13 AM
Can you please atleast name 600 or 700 of them for us? Maybe Beyer is lurking here and you will be able to educate him as well as many others.

Ah .. horse trainers....

is there really any greater joy in the game then getting a taste of the bs they so freely spew?

How's that dangerous turf course down at Gulfstream been lately?

the chances of educating someone as closed minded as you and beyers is about the biggest waste of time in the world... I dont follow GP... I played there a few weeks but couldnt turn a profit so I moved on... wait, I guess I should blame the horsemen...

twindouble
01-29-2009, 01:13 AM
Can you please atleast name 600 or 700 of them for us? Maybe Beyer is lurking here and you will be able to educate him as well as many others.

Ah .. horse trainers....

is there really any greater joy in the game then getting a taste of the bs they so freely spew?

How's that dangerous turf course down at Gulfstream been lately?

Man I can't understand how anyone who's been around this sport as long as some here can suggest in any way there's no drug problem. Then to contribute just training methods to horses that improve 10 to 15 lengths running faster than any prior races, when they are 5,6,7,8,years old is a stretch beyond belief.

Those that believe it should put pressure on the tracks along with those that, fined, suspended, took purses away, tarnished the trainers good name and make it right. Wipe those infractions off the record. Was the latter just a figment of our imagination?

I wouldn't jump for joy if I were you.

TD

ralph_the_cat
01-29-2009, 01:16 AM
Theres about 20 different concepts related to every muscle and joint located on a horse, as well as about 100 different ways to train a horse into a race...

ralph_the_cat
01-29-2009, 01:42 AM
Man I can't understand how anyone who's been around this sport as long as some here can suggest in any way there's no drug problem. Then to contribute just training methods to horses that improve 10 to 15 lengths running faster than any prior races, when they are 5,6,7,8,years old is a stretch beyond belief.

Those that believe it should put pressure on the tracks along with those that, fined, suspended, took purses away, tarnished the trainers good name and make it right. Wipe those infractions off the record. Was the latter just a figment of our imagination?

I wouldn't jump for joy if I were you.

TD

This post isn't directed at me, but I thought I should mention, this is about a 3yo, not an older horse... this thread is about a young 3yo that improved his highest lifetime beyer figure, as did the 3 or 4 horses that finished behind him in the race... but no, the beyer is accurate...?, I mean the other 3 or 4 horses that improved their highest beyer in the race must have been trained by a "cheater" too... right?...

lol :bang:

Indulto
01-29-2009, 06:43 AM
The problem with the average fan is that they really have no clue on how big of a difference a training program is from barn to barn... from training to $$$ put in... stable to stable its day to night... fans have this stupid idea that each trainer just sends the horse out every couple days to train... and "anyone could do it"... as well as that a great trainer cant improve off another great trainer, "they must be cheating, he shouldn't improve off him"... gross idea... these arent robots... few horses are running at 100%, every horse has a problem, every GREAT trainer fixes the problem, or at least improves it... Trainers dont openly admit how they improved a horse until years later... What was that ted west horse that improved big time... he later talked about how the horse had breathing issues and he had him on a "HIS" bleeders program... Trainers have training concepts you might call "secrets", that go beyond the simple idea... "hes cheating"... IF IT WAS EASY, everyone would do it... a great trainer is about being great at finding the problem and fixing it, and training the horse to be his best on race day, not the day before... but timed to explode at the right hour of the day through methods that the average fan couldnt even imagine... but ya, keep thinking its just about sending a horse out in the morning and the guys that win more cheat more... theres a thousand concepts the average fan cant even begin to understand... its not about 2 minute licks and "super drugs"rtc,
Your disdain for players who can’t/won’t/don’t get any closer to the horses than the paddock fence is probably justified in many cases, but you risk coming across as another Jeff Mullins. What we don’t know – and what you apparently feel no need to tell us – simply results in our betting less which in turn results in lower purses for you.

From your conversations here with other horsemen, you appear very knowledgeable about the medical procedures employed to maintain a horse’s “racing soundness.” It would surprise me if you didn’t employ that knowledge to your advantage in the wagering pools as well. I am surprised, however, at the apparent disagreement between your perspective and that of another horseman posting in this thread, sonnyp.

Perhaps the terms “cheating” and “fairness" are both overused in racing, but taking unfair advantage is not; and IMO the people who do so have already killed the sport, and now have the game in their crosshairs. Restricting equine medical history to racing insiders, and restricting effective lower takeout to whales/professionals have resulted not just an unbeatable game for the overwhelming majority of non-professionals, but an industry-approved fleecing of people seeking entertainment in a circus-like environment operated like a carnival.

I would be willing to forego lower takeout temporarily if a) rebating were prohibited from all sources, and b) uniform medication policies and penalties were implemented and enforced by uniform, expanded security and accountability. How expensive can security cameras recording all activity in every stall in every barn be? Why can’t the vet, owner, trainer, groom, hot walker, and exercise rider all be held responsible to an appropriate degree for each horse in their charge, and fined accordingly and increasingly whenever another positive occurs among a horse in their charge. Conversely, non-vet/owner/trainers should also receive bonuses for positive-free periods. Shouldn't every barn have a security guard who can ensure that only those personally known to him/her have access and make certain that all cameras are functioning?

The vets may have to assume the greatest responsibility without a signed affidavit at time of administering from the owner and trainer that a horse testing positive would not run before a specified eligibility date. I wonder if players could benefit from knowing such dates as well.

Hey, I’m also willing to treat racing strictly as a gambling activity rather than a sport outside of the Triple Crown, but until the racing carnival operators recognize how much more money they can take away from all the chumps/”suckers” like me out there by lowering the Pick Six minimum to the point where we can comfortably play that wager, I’ll just keep my feet wet with Triple Crown preps and other stakes on dirt and turf; and the occasional synthetic stakes like the Pacific Classic where all the entrants in the 2008 renewal showed ability on those surfaces.

Hopefully, the likelihood of not betting on an unsound horse -- or even one that is just “racing sound” -- is still greater in a stakes race. It’s hard to be sure from my side of the paddock fence. ;)

slewis
01-29-2009, 09:35 AM
Neither horses being suspicious Dutrow move-ups.

Benny The Bull ran Beyers of 111 and 108 in his final two starts for trainer Jeff Talley before being transferred to Dutrow.

Is it that hard to believe that he can win on the legit in Dubai in a race where the laughable Star Crowned was 3rd beaten 2 lengths? And you may say 'but Idiot Proof was 2nd!' ... but that was an off form version of Idiot Proof who was beaten at Turf Paradice by reformed claimer Tribesman in his prior start. Also - after running 2nd to BTB in Dubai - Idiot Proof has returned to America and has performed horrendously to say the very least.

As for Diamond Stripes .. a horse Dutrow had from the start .. he's a 340K yearling buy after originally selling for just 95K as a weanling. Pretty profitable pinhook and no doubt exceptionally good look young horse.

Anyway, he won the Godolphin mile over a field of busters. Elusive Warning - who still has allowance conditions was 2nd. The 3rd place finisher Don Renato was beaten just 2.5 lengths. That's the same Don Renato who was 11th beaten 22 lengths in a Saudi Arabian race with Wigberto Ramos riding just six weeks prior.

And if an eye opening Dutrow form reversal is to occur in a place like Dubai - what is going to stop the suspicious minds from thinking he has an edge with something that isn't detectable?





I personally don't believe Steve Asmussen is someone who performs awesome form reversals.

I think he is unfairly grouped with a bunch of trainers who have a much greater skills at performing miracles.

Why is he so unfairly grouped? because he's been caught doing some very shady stuff and he didn't exactly help himself out any with his performance on the HBO Inside Sports piece.

Here's Asmussen's year by year stats over the last five years:

2009: 40-for-211 (18% wins) $1.18 ROI
2008: (20% wins) $1.46 ROI
2007: (21% wins) $1.56 ROI
2006: (21% wins) $1.59 ROI
2005: (21% wins) $1.40 ROI

Since '05 he is 1,864-for-8,854 - (21% wins with a $1.48 ROI)

Considering the stock he gets .. consistantly being at 21% is in line with logic. He shows a weak 26% loss on the betting dollar - and while he does have a few eye opening form reversals if you think long and hard... when you consider the army of horses he's acquired over the last decade .. his 1st time with stable to dramatic form reversal ratio is awfully low.

The guys one great skill that awes me is with early season 2yo's going very short distances. His horses perform embarassingly poor on turf and synthetic surfaces.

As for why his horses may look different/better than other peoples horses? I don't know - but his training methods seem fairly different from a workout pattern standpoint. he gets fast horses to work a weekly diet of 4 furlongs in 53 and change breezes.

You'll even see modestly bred babies with those painfully slow works jump up and run off the screen going extreme sprint distances on debut.

Ive just read a very long response to my post filled with stats, etc, and I'm not sure what point your trying to make.

Ive mentionerd I've had horses with Dutrow and, for example, one he moved up considerably, another he couldn't get to run a lick compared to the trainer who had him, and a baby who couldn't break her maiden for 50k, I gave to a low level trainer out of town and she eventually reeled off 4 wins in a row before unfortunately breaking down.
Dutrow, I believe is the best trainer in the game right now, I;ve said this before and I'll say it again... most trainers do things pretty much the same way. Some certainly have edges over others. Those edges may or MAY NOT be illegal. My contention is that the LEGAL stuff has gotten way out of control. They just made a hoopla about toe grabs... Hows about tapping a knee or ankle???? That's ONE THOUSAND TIMES worse then any shoe-realated danger. Hypocracy running wild at the Jockey club.
Know what?... What's taking place in racing is similar to what's going on in Washington and the rest of this once great but now pitiful country we live in.
The people who run the show are totally full of shit.. and set policy to the rest of us with a straight face for their own agenda, and for those that dont like it, too damn bad.
BTW... Asmussen's babies from what I've been told are in SERIOUS training on a private farm with simulated races BEFORE they ever set foot on the track at Churchill in the spring, hence the success.

asH
01-29-2009, 10:12 AM
Negligent reporting at his best- firstly where’s the proof?

and secondly he was wrong- completely

What his article fails to report is that Kathleen O’Connell did masterful job training and placing This One’s for Phil. After breaking maiden This One’s for Phil

next 6 races after breaking maiden

*5th by 6 lengths to Big Drama, in the 100K Fla Stallion Dr. Fager, after a big middle move and finished 3 length in back of YOU LUCKIE MANN (Favorite in Beyers Gulfstream race- Sunshine Million Dash)

*1st in the mile Sea Cliff by 4.5 lengths 60K

* 2nd in the mile 70 28th running of the Foolish Pleasure 90K, made a middle move to the lead

*5th by 9 lengths to Big Drama again 4 lengths off 2nd horse, in the 400k Fla Stallion Reality

* 3rd by 2.5 in the 3rd running of the Arthur I Appleton 100k mile 1/16 turf, after leading throughout

1st in 250K Sunshine Million- beat fav YOU LUCKIE MANN

It can be said before going into the race this versatile horse had talent and experience. Dropping back in distance

Beyer is sharpening his knives early this year..Hari Cari is painless.

TurfRuler
01-29-2009, 10:37 AM
1) Money
2) Clients
3) Money

Not only are the swindlers getting over on the average fan he is winning the purse and the wagering pool too.

twindouble
01-29-2009, 11:02 AM
This post isn't directed at me, but I thought I should mention, this is about a 3yo, not an older horse... this thread is about a young 3yo that improved his highest lifetime beyer figure, as did the 3 or 4 horses that finished behind him in the race... but no, the beyer is accurate...?, I mean the other 3 or 4 horses that improved their highest beyer in the race must have been trained by a "cheater" too... right?...

lol :bang:

Sorry about that, I thought the thread was about Beyer's comments on drugs and Dutrow.:bang:

Most threads take a turn on subject matter as they progress, I'd say this one did. 3 and 4 year olds can and will improve unless they are not sound. To suggest today they don't get any help via the Vet using who knows what is somewhat naive. Don't you think? I think I'll stay away from the quote tab.

T.D

classhandicapper
01-29-2009, 11:41 AM
I'd be willing to bet (and will under the right circumstances) that neither This Ones for Phil or You Luckie Man repeat their recent Beyer figure until later this year when they develop further (assuming they even do) and can actually run a legitimate 117 and 112 or they get an incredibly easy trip along the way.

I also think Kelly Leak's and Ju Jitsu Jax's figures are way more likely to be lower next time out despite the fact that they are clearly lightly raced improving horse and almost certain to improve over time. ( Perhap's Ju Jitsu Jax will repeat his figure, but only if he draws into a weaker field and shakes loose or if he runs 5 1/2F, etc...)

Some of the horses that got buried in the field are likely to run better figures next time out or soon because they were either overmatched in this spot, didn't like the dirt, didn't ship well to Florida, or developed a problem in the race.

IMO, way too much is being made of this race because the figure is inflated. These are very nice sprinting 3YOs, but IMO that figure is a fluke even though there is no obvious reason to believe that's the case based on typical speed figure methodology.

mountainman
01-29-2009, 01:06 PM
Trainers can improve on other trainers through pure horsemanship without the help of illegal drugs, just as young horses can unexpectedly produce explosive performances. The concern is that these explosions AREN'T (or shouldn't be) unexpected anymore when horses are switched to supertrainers. And in my opinion, this particular case just doesn't pass the smell test. Big props to Beyer for raising questions on a sensitive issue that few other columnists or public handicappers will confront. He has proven himself a player's advocate who is unafraid to alienate prominent horsemen. And being disliked by some of the people you critique is an unpleasant price to pay for candor. You can take that from me.

What surprizes me is the failure of more owners and trainers to speak out against illegal drugging. While players have come to resent form reversals and chalk barns that never lose, they are free to adjust and jump onboard. Honest outfits, on the other hand, are powerless at the hands of cheaters. Yet, with few exceptions, they continue to close ranks and protect their own. Illegal juicing is HORSEMEN hurting HORSEMEN. Handicappers will find ways to survive-and sometimes even capitalize- but what about 4% trainers who run clean? How many will inevitably lose clients and leave the business? And how many have already exited? Where are the stats, at a time when more owners and horses are needed, on THAT attrition rate?

ralph_the_cat
01-29-2009, 05:53 PM
For Mark, and the other guy that thinks Im Mullins-like,

mullins comment, I never said a bettor is an idiot, I said they havent a clue what the difference from trainer to trainer is like, not to mention the 1,000+ list of legal meds each trainer uses in their barn...

Mark, I never knew you were a Beyers fan,
Try and understand this, a young 3yo goes from Kathleens barn to Rick Dutrows, who, by the way, just won the KY derby and Preakness last year with the top 3yo in north america, and trained the talented Benny the Bull who destroyed most of the sprinters he faced this past year... and YOU and BEYER are surprised this horse pulled away to win by 2.5 lengths at GP?... running a 1:09.10? krist guys, The FILLIES RACE THE SAME DAY went in 1:10.55... we should be shocked Dutrows up and coming 3yo ran it in 1:09.10... ????? this thread acts like he ran it in 1:08 flat and won by 12 lengths with a thistle invader... the lead horse ran fast fractions while pressured and didnt have the kick at the end... typical race science.... OH, and then BEYERS gives the winning horse his career best of a 117... AND ALSO GIVES A CAREER BEST TO THE REST OF THE HORSES THAT HIT THE BOARD in the race... why did everyone run their career best??????? hmmm maybe the figures are off... the horse won by 2.5... The bigger debate should be how off Beyers numbers are, or how insane of a field it was for everyone to run 10+ figures higher than their career best...

-Im not looking to debate drugs-cheaters-etc... just this horse and this race with this trainer... I didnt post to stir anyone up, -the cheater card is being used where the "logic" card would fit...

DeanT
01-29-2009, 06:01 PM
What surprizes me is the failure of more owners and trainers to speak out against illegal drugging. While players have come to resent form reversals and chalk barns that never lose, they are free to adjust and jump onboard. Honest outfits, on the other hand, are powerless at the hands of cheaters. Yet, with few exceptions, they continue to close ranks and protect their own. Illegal juicing is HORSEMEN hurting HORSEMEN.

That is a good point Mark and I find it to be true. I just read a post on another board from someone I know wins about 10% at best, and he seems to me to be a decently sharp horseperson. He was responding to "take care of your own business and mind your own backyard" with this:

You can take care of your own backyard all you want, but when your neighbour is taking care of his AND loading them up with EPO, synthetic pain meds, unlabelled bleeder meds, snail venom, snake venom etc..... all things being equal, you'll have trouble keeping up.

There's this prick around here who couldn't win a fixed race until last year. Then he had a heroin addict relative who was put on some sort of synthetic methadone. All of the sudden, his old cripples were earning. How do I know this.... this joker offered to sell some to my buddy and I in the backstretch and told us the story.

I was doing great until EPO came to prominence. It was the new big thing. Some guy offered to sell me some in the backstretch. Since then, he and his buddies have been doing pretty well.

You can't tell me that someone else's back yard doesn't have any bearing on my own success or lack thereof.

Very few people speak out like that in the training ranks I find. Maybe they are as frustrated as horseplayers in speaking up because they feel the hill is too high to climb?

ralph_the_cat
01-29-2009, 06:14 PM
They test for EPO

DeanT
01-29-2009, 06:17 PM
They test for EPO

EPO is only testable in a 48 hour window after administration. I think it is given once every couple of weeks. If you don't hit them at a certain time, like hitting a tri with a 7-1 on top, you can not catch it. You'd have to have the IQ of a pencil to give it close to post time.

ralph_the_cat
01-29-2009, 06:50 PM
EPO is only testable in a 48 hour window after administration. I think it is given once every couple of weeks. If you don't hit them at a certain time, like hitting a tri with a 7-1 on top, you can not catch it. You'd have to have the IQ of a pencil to give it close to post time.

you are talking about trainers here, what are their iqs?:D

thats why barns are called for random tests and walk thrus... trainers under discussion on this forum have received random EPO testing... but Im also not so sure its only a 48 hour window...

DeanT
01-29-2009, 06:59 PM
but Im also not so sure its only a 48 hour window...

However, the test for EPO detects use of the drug only within 48 hours, Maylin said, and only the top three finishers in a race are tested. But EPO is most effective when used well ahead of a competition, allowing a horse to reap the benefits but not test positive.

http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070218/SPORTS/702180350

In cycling this past year:

But the testing has also moved to counter the new generation of drugs. EPO testing is now more precise and is able to pick up its use well beyond the former 48-hour limit

But I believe that is a very costly test and not available to racing.

There is no test for CERA apparently, which does the same thing.

the little guy
01-29-2009, 07:08 PM
Try and understand this, a young 3yo goes from Kathleens barn to Rick Dutrows, who, by the way, just won the KY derby and Preakness last year with the top 3yo in north america, and trained the talented Benny the Bull who destroyed most of the sprinters he faced this past year... and YOU and BEYER are surprised this horse pulled away to win by 2.5 lengths at GP?... running a 1:09.10? krist guys, The FILLIES RACE THE SAME DAY went in 1:10.55... we should be shocked Dutrows up and coming 3yo ran it in 1:09.10...



The fact that you don't understand how remarkable it is that this newly turned 3YO, with very average speed figures just a few weeks prior, ran almost 1 1/2 seconds faster than the acomplished older filly and mare sprinters did just an hour later shows how confused you are about this entire situation.

DrugS
01-29-2009, 09:54 PM
Ralph might struggle with something as simple and basic as that ... but he's pretty amusing and I consider myself a fan of his work.

Here's one of his more epic old posts....

You don't see to many fixed races at the big scale race tracks....but the little ones ...Oh my....I've been on both ends with horses I train...Every year there is less and less....The trainers rarely know about it...It's 99% jockeys....i've been on both ends this year!...Its one of those things that you deal with...Race Tracks like Mountaineer hide all of that...Just in the past 5 years there have been on track incidents where trainers have punched the shit out of jockeys, jockeys being banned...even murders...its sick and sad......and so much more you wouldn't believe....you would think Im full of shit If I told you some of the shit that goes on...Money=GREED=Money ......and Im sure some of you horsemen that post on here know what I mean...I tried getting a jockey banned for using a electrical shoking device this year...Race #10 is when the fixed races usually happen..because as soon as the winner gets his photo in the 10th race at Mountaineer the Lights shut off and the place closes!...Start watching mountaineers 10th race and their payoffs check out some of the best jockeys ride like apprentice riders....On purpose ...it's sad...there fixed several times a week....We as trainers dread the tenth....you got me all fired up now!.....Drugs....Oh Drugs....I'd say atleast 3 out of 10 horses that run at Mountaineer have an illegal substance in them...Certain drugs mask certain drugs...certain test are only given randomly....Did you ever think how much money it would really cost to test for every available drug?!!!!10 times a night not to mention spots checks!!!....It would take thousands a week!....no race track dishes that out at the small levels....Oh well....Now my blood pressures up!.....

He makes Mountaineer sound like the wild west.

DrugS
01-29-2009, 10:00 PM
BTW... Asmussen's babies from what I've been told are in SERIOUS training on a private farm with simulated races BEFORE they ever set foot on the track at Churchill in the spring, hence the success.

I've heard and read the same type of things.

Why do you think his horses struggle so bad on turf or synthetic tracks?

DeanT
01-29-2009, 10:12 PM
Fantastic post Ralph, for the sheer entertainment value of seeing you get fired up. You sound like a horseplayer :)

LG,

At Woodbine I heard him or his assistant say that they "brought the wrong kind of horses up for the synthetic." Maybe he struggles with that part of the game. Just a hunch/tidbit.

mountainman
01-29-2009, 10:51 PM
For Mark, and the other guy that thinks Im Mullins-like,

mullins comment, I never said a bettor is an idiot, I said they havent a clue what the difference from trainer to trainer is like, not to mention the 1,000+ list of legal meds each trainer uses in their barn...

Mark, I never knew you were a Beyers fan,
Try and understand this, a young 3yo goes from Kathleens barn to Rick Dutrows, who, by the way, just won the KY derby and Preakness last year with the top 3yo in north america, and trained the talented Benny the Bull who destroyed most of the sprinters he faced this past year... and YOU and BEYER are surprised this horse pulled away to win by 2.5 lengths at GP?... running a 1:09.10? krist guys, The FILLIES RACE THE SAME DAY went in 1:10.55... we should be shocked Dutrows up and coming 3yo ran it in 1:09.10... ????? this thread acts like he ran it in 1:08 flat and won by 12 lengths with a thistle invader... the lead horse ran fast fractions while pressured and didnt have the kick at the end... typical race science.... OH, and then BEYERS gives the winning horse his career best of a 117... AND ALSO GIVES A CAREER BEST TO THE REST OF THE HORSES THAT HIT THE BOARD in the race... why did everyone run their career best??????? hmmm maybe the figures are off... the horse won by 2.5... The bigger debate should be how off Beyers numbers are, or how insane of a field it was for everyone to run 10+ figures higher than their career best...

-Im not looking to debate drugs-cheaters-etc... just this horse and this race with this trainer... I didnt post to stir anyone up, -the cheater card is being used where the "logic" card would fit...

One thing suspicious about implausible training feats is the high incidence of bad tests that seem to accompany them. If hot barns and big form reversals are so innocent, then why is it so often possible to predict which stables will soon have a positive test? And I'm not referring strictly to supertrainers. Obscure outfits that catch fire for awhile fairly often have horses flunk the spitbox.

lamboguy
01-29-2009, 10:59 PM
hey mark i think that epogen is the miracle drug these days, but i know that every state tests for it. some of these super trainers are accused of using the stuff. why wouldn't the test find it in the horse's system?

the other thing now is people are training from their farms, and some have the machines for shock treatments. they cost about $20k to own. its legal for a vet to administer the therapeudic shock treatment a week before a race. a guy on a farm can use it the day of the race especially night racing because lassix isn't until 5:00 pm. and the horse does not apear on the track before that time.

a good legitamate game is in most people's interest. taking these types of edges are not good for the game at all. you know that as well as i do.

mountainman
01-29-2009, 11:23 PM
hey mark i think that epogen is the miracle drug these days, but i know that every state tests for it. some of these super trainers are accused of using the stuff. why wouldn't the test find it in the horse's system?

the other thing now is people are training from their farms, and some have the machines for shock treatments. they cost about $20k to own. its legal for a vet to administer the therapeudic shock treatment a week before a race. a guy on a farm can use it the day of the race especially night racing because lassix isn't until 5:00 pm. and the horse does not apear on the track before that time.

a good legitamate game is in most people's interest. taking these types of edges are not good for the game at all. you know that as well as i do.
Interesting post Phil. Sounds like you get the cutting-edge buzz.

Stevie Belmont
01-29-2009, 11:38 PM
The Dutrow horses I have seen in person at the track have looked super. Diamond Stripes looked the best the night he won the Meadowlands Cup. Arson Sqaud looked great before winning the Meadowlands Cup. Benny The Bull looked super before the Woody Stephens on Belmont Day. Oprah Winney before the Ladies Secret at Monmouth looked great. Big Brown before the Monmouth Stakes looked fantastic. All had Healthy, shiny coats, were relaxed and on their toes.

The diet, physical issues, training methods and surroundings are all variables that can affect a horse’s performance and development. I think Dutrows’s feed is top quality stuff, not all trainers feed their horses with the same stuff. He will have all his horses checked out well to see if there are any hidden issues.

All of these things can attribute to a horses turn a round.

I think his horsemanship is disregarded all too often. He has been around horses his whole life. Father was a successful trainer for years and his brother, successful as well. He certainly takes good care of his horses and a happy horse will usually do better than a not so happy horse.

The turn a round is not as shocking as some may think.

Dahoss9698
01-29-2009, 11:51 PM
Well, I know I've changed my mind now. :rolleyes:

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 01:44 AM
One thing suspicious about implausible training feats is the high incidence of bad tests that seem to accompany them. If hot barns and big form reversals are so innocent, then why is it so often possible to predict which stables will soon have a positive test? And I'm not referring strictly to supertrainers. Obscure outfits that catch fire for awhile fairly often have horses flunk the spitbox.
ok that doesnt explain much of anything about beyer and dutrow... and may I say obscure outfits that dont catch fire catch positive tests just as often... When breezing through ARCIs in years past, majority of the penalties were from guys the public never even heard of...

The thing with my view is, people think I dont think trainers/horses use illegal substances... my point usually is, its never being used on horses that the "public" claims to be "cheating"...

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 01:59 AM
The fact that you don't understand how remarkable it is that this newly turned 3YO, with very average speed figures just a few weeks prior, ran almost 1 1/2 seconds faster than the acomplished older filly and mare sprinters did just an hour later shows how confused you are about this entire situation.

Hey Super Genius, aka, the little guy... I've displayed nothing but facts on the Dutrow Trainee, and then my opinion based off those facts... I don't think you understand the situation one bit, the horse did not just run a few weeks ago... The horse ran Nov 8th, thats around 2 and a half months ago... he ran a career best of 81 as a 2yo, with a switch to a derby winning trainer, it shouldn't be too hard to assume the horse could improve enough to win a stakes race by 2.5 lengths... beyers number isnt accurate... its high, but not 117... Look at the horse that ran 2nd... "You Lucky Mann"... he jumped from 79 to 107 in back to back races in his 2yo season... no article on that one?... but one on a maturing 3yo?...

Dahoss9698
01-30-2009, 02:02 AM
Hey Super Genius, aka, the little guy... I've displayed nothing but facts on the Dutrow Trainee, and then my opinion based off those facts... I don't think you understand the situation one bit, the horse did not just run a few weeks ago... The horse ran Nov 8th, thats around 2 and a half months ago... he ran a career best of 81 as a 2yo, with a switch to a derby winning trainer, it shouldn't be too hard to assume the horse could improve enough to win a stakes race by 2.5 lengths... beyers number isnt accurate... its high, but not 117... Look at the horse that ran 2nd... "You Lucky Mann"... he jumped from 79 to 107 in back to back races in his 2yo season... no article on that one?... but one on a maturing 3yo?...

What should the Beyer be?

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 02:05 AM
not 117... if he claims theres a 10 point error, give him a 107... its just a number...



What should the Beyer be?

Dahoss9698
01-30-2009, 02:12 AM
not 117... if he claims theres a 10 point error, give him a 107... its just a number...

So according to you, Beyer's number isn't accurate. But, you don't know what the accurate number is? More facts I guess. CJ had a great post a few pages back explaining the whole thing. I'd say he's pretty knowledgable about figures and how they are made. You might want to go back and read it.

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 02:20 AM
So according to you, Beyer's number isn't accurate. But, you don't know what the accurate number is? More facts I guess. CJ had a great post a few pages back explaining the whole thing. I'd say he's pretty knowledgable about figures and how they are made. You might want to go back and read it.


I read it, the way he configures numbers doesnt make it right... lmao...

JustRalph
01-30-2009, 02:24 AM
Look at the horse that ran 2nd... "You Lucky Mann"... he jumped from 79 to 107 in back to back races in his 2yo season... no article on that one?... but one on a maturing 3yo?...

I think if you read the article again you might notice that the article basically says the same thing about the 2nd horse..........just read between the lines a little.

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 02:24 AM
its not rocket science, but the horse runs 3rd by 2 in a 100k stake race in NOV earning a 79... then he wins a 250k stake race by 2.5 lengths and gets a 117... :D


the only thing that looks wierd on his pps is his 117 SF.... the finishing positions etc, dont look like a HUGE turn around like you guys are making it out... we're talking about a 2yo that won an open stake race with his old trainer by several lengths...

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 02:25 AM
I think if you read the article again you might notice that the article basically says the same thing about the 2nd horse..........just read between the lines a little.

so that horse "cheated too"...

:sleeping:

Dahoss9698
01-30-2009, 02:33 AM
I read it, I don't understand how figures are made, but I don't want to admit it... lmao...

FTFY

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 02:37 AM
grow up...

DrugS
01-30-2009, 03:34 AM
not 117... if he claims theres a 10 point error, give him a 107... its just a number...

Ok Ralphie...

since I like you...

I'll bite.

If you give the winner a 107 and shave 10 points off - you also have to do the same to the other dirt races on the card.

That means that the $3.8 million Pletcher yearling that dominated a MSW field - his Beyer goes from a weak 77 to an even weaker 67.

The A P Indy Matz debuter that won a MSW for the girls - her Beyer goes from a 69 to a 59.

The Sunshine Million Filly and Mare Sprint winner High Resolve ... who ran a 94 Beyer in her last start .. would get only an 86 for upsetting a solid 12 horse field. The 2nd place finisher - who had run two 95 Beyers in her last three starts - she would get just an 80 for running 2nd.

The 3rd place finisher Lovely Isle ... who had run Beyers of 97, 91, and 90 in her last three starts would get just a 73 for running 3rd in a field of 12.

The 4th place finisher Mistical Plan ... who was a Grade 1 winning sprinter at the distance last year ... she would get just a 70 Beyer for running 4th of 12.

As for the comment you made about This Ones For Phil running only 1.40 seconds faster than older sprinters in the Sunshine Million F & M sprint on the same card ... when mega hyped Lost In the Fog won the Sunshine Million Dash at GP in 2005 - he ran only 0.40 seconds faster than Alix M. did in her Sunshine Million F & M Sprint win on the same card. Alix M. is no better than High Resolve.

PaceAdvantage
01-30-2009, 04:52 AM
Well, your half correct.

Jerkens IS and will always be a great trainer (In my opinion the greatest).
As far as using drugs and getting positives.... your 100% incorrect.It's funny...Jerkens jumped up and beat a lot of legends with some fairly ordinary horses (by comparison). And yet, if he did that in this day and age, would he not be accused of the kind of wrongdoing Beyer wrote about the other day?

Food for thought.

PaceAdvantage
01-30-2009, 05:03 AM
I read it, the way he configures numbers doesnt make it right... lmao...Oh now WAIT a minute...not that dreaded lmao. I wasn't taking you seriously before, but now that you've pulled the lmao card, there's no denying you are the winner of this intellectual arguement!

jotb
01-30-2009, 08:53 AM
Ok Ralphie...

since I like you...

I'll bite.

If you give the winner a 107 and shave 10 points off - you also have to do the same to the other dirt races on the card.

That means that the $3.8 million Pletcher yearling that dominated a MSW field - his Beyer goes from a weak 77 to an even weaker 67.

The A P Indy Matz debuter that won a MSW for the girls - her Beyer goes from a 69 to a 59.

The Sunshine Million Filly and Mare Sprint winner High Resolve ... who ran a 94 Beyer in her last start .. would get only an 86 for upsetting a solid 12 horse field. The 2nd place finisher - who had run two 95 Beyers in her last three starts - she would get just an 80 for running 2nd.

The 3rd place finisher Lovely Isle ... who had run Beyers of 97, 91, and 90 in her last three starts would get just a 73 for running 3rd in a field of 12.

The 4th place finisher Mistical Plan ... who was a Grade 1 winning sprinter at the distance last year ... she would get just a 70 Beyer for running 4th of 12.

As for the comment you made about This Ones For Phil running only 1.40 seconds faster than older sprinters in the Sunshine Million F & M sprint on the same card ... when mega hyped Lost In the Fog won the Sunshine Million Dash at GP in 2005 - he ran only 0.40 seconds faster than Alix M. did in her Sunshine Million F & M Sprint win on the same card. Alix M. is no better than High Resolve.

I would like to know what the variant was for the race and does Beyer use race conditions to create the variant? This particuliar race is either run in California or Florida. In the last 7 year's the race has been at GP. The winners have been This Ones For Phil, Storm in May, Lost In The Fog, and Valid Video. Three of these races have been at the distance of 6F and the other race was at 7.0F (Valid Video). When Valid Video and Lost In The Fog ran this race, I had the track playing slower and almost the same. When Storm And May and this year's winner This Ones For Phil, I have the track playing fast. This year's racetrack was playing quite a bit faster than Storm And May's race. My number's do have this year's winner with the best speed figure from the previous year's at GP but, I think something's wrong.

You were comparing Lost In the Fog and Alix M. Yes, the time difference was 0.44 faster to be exact. This year the difference was 1.45 faster. In 2003 Madame Pietra ran a time of 110:22 vs Valid Video's time 122.38 at 7.0F (109:32). Valid Video's race was 0.90 faster than Madame Pietra's race. If you go back to 2007 the 3yo colt Storm In May's race time was 110:22 which was 1.11 SLOWER than Shaggy Mane's time of 109:31. I don't know what Shaggy Mane's Beyer number was that day but, I would gather that the number was the highest from the 4 races at GP. I gave Shaggy a number that is in the same league (5 speed points lower) as This Ones For Bud.

When you compare the races in California (only 3 since 2003) the 3yo boy's have better times than the older fillies. In 2008 Bob Black Jack broke the world record (on the poly) in 106.53 vs Shaggy Mane's Time of 107.66 (1.13 faster). In 2006 the 3yo colt Da Stoop's time was 108.94 vs Hot Storms's time of 109.44 (faster 0.50). Lastly, in 2004 the 3yo colt Saint Afleet's time was 108.68 vs Mooji Moo's time of 109.34 (faster 0.68). With all of these races between the 2 states the boy's have faster times 6 times from the 7 races (on average 0.70) excluding the race at GP in 2007 when Shaggy Mane's, (4yo filly at the time) race was faster (1.11) than the boy's. So, was Shaggy Mane that much better than Storm in May or was Storm In May just a really bad 3yo? Neither one of these 2 horses have won a race since Jan 27 2007. Could this race (since it was the last race run at GP prior to this year) have possibly influenced the hugh Beyer of 117 for This Ones For Phil?

Joe

Stevie Belmont
01-30-2009, 10:33 AM
Dunkirk got a 77 beyer? Not to good on the number note, but the track was also playing slow. The final time for the 7 panels was over 1:25. I'm not to sure that horse is fast enough, will get a better gauge the next time he runs. So I'll give the horse the benefit of the doubt. He was a clear cut winner by open lengths, but it certainly worked through the stretch.

Bubba X
01-30-2009, 11:05 AM
A few things to think about....
1. Instead of just arguing about the validity of the 117 BSF, give some thought to the Calder figs. 2-turn for 2 yos are not everyday occurences and those races might be underrated. I am not an expert speed figure maker but I would think those races, at Calder in summer and early fall when weather is often a factor, may be tough to make figures on. Also, if the horse's winning maiden race Beyer is correct, that is a very nice number for any Calder 2 yo in July.
2. Take a look at the Rags or TGs for the horse. They show less dramatic change than Beyer, no?
3. Give a bit of credit to the guys who decided to pay what they did for the horse. If the horse's ability, as "defined" by BSF's was so modest, they obvioulsy had other figs and/or other reasons to like the horse.
4. Maybe the horse is a sprinter and perhaps winning his first stretchout in the Seacliff (a pretty nice race for him though he didn't beat much) got O'Connell and Campbell on the wrong course with him by keeping him going long. If they'd have kept him sprinting in the fall, maybe he'd have shown a lot more ability.
5. Without rehashing the Dutrow vs O'Connell ability factor, it is hard NOT to at least consider being critical of how this horse was handled prior to the sale. Five races, four of them stakes, in 82 days. He ran decent or better in all of them. Perhaps he would have done far better with less frequent running.

twindouble
01-30-2009, 11:41 AM
Man, some of you guys are like a bunch of archeologists digging up whatever information or fossil you can to support to your theories. Did anyone expect Dutrow to agree with Beyer or say nothing in his own defense?

Drugs have been a social problem when they exploded on the scene in the 60's and grew at an enormous rate for the last 48 years due to science and technology. Don't ignore the latter because the government put drugs on the fast track for approval. Think about it, if a truck driver back in the 60's could stay awake for a week or more taking speed, ( bennies), triple his income, what would stop others from using them or selling them to make a lot money? Like I said, it was easy to predict drugs would proliferate other sports including racing. Just think about what's out there and what we don't know about that's being cooked up legally and illegally. :faint: Drug use is a pandemic for sure. I'm sure all you intellectuals here know that to be a fact of life today. So in my opinion the arguments in this thread become somewhat mute. It's raining like hell out there and no one can make it a clear sunny day, as much as you would like to. Just keep in mind, I'm not throwing a blanket over all trainers.

How to change what's going on is the challenge and it won't be easy. We have spent billions on the so-called war on drugs and got nowhere. It always made sense to me as a gambler to find ways to make money when the train to nowhere left the station with majority that left their common sense behind.

Good luck,


T.D.

lamboguy
01-30-2009, 12:02 PM
there is no such miracle drug that makes horse go faster except for epogen, and that ruins the nervous system of the horse. it literally destroys them like chemotherapy to a human.

there are drugs that help a horse breath better, aleviate the aches and pains, and there are also treatments that are done like hypobarack chambers and shockwave therapy.

there are rules on the drugs and tests for them. trainers will push the envelope as far as they can push them. this sport needs a commission to make it industry standard rules, and more pack behind the punch if one tries to break them and get caught.

one more thing they got to make sure the tester isn't tainted!

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 05:16 PM
Oh now WAIT a minute...not that dreaded lmao. I wasn't taking you seriously before, but now that you've pulled the lmao card, there's no denying you are the winner of this intellectual arguement!

not sure if you were trying to be funny or rude... :confused:

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 05:25 PM
Ok Ralphie...

since I like you...

I'll bite.

If you give the winner a 107 and shave 10 points off - you also have to do the same to the other dirt races on the card.

That means that the $3.8 million Pletcher yearling that dominated a MSW field - his Beyer goes from a weak 77 to an even weaker 67.

The A P Indy Matz debuter that won a MSW for the girls - her Beyer goes from a 69 to a 59.

The Sunshine Million Filly and Mare Sprint winner High Resolve ... who ran a 94 Beyer in her last start .. would get only an 86 for upsetting a solid 12 horse field. The 2nd place finisher - who had run two 95 Beyers in her last three starts - she would get just an 80 for running 2nd.

The 3rd place finisher Lovely Isle ... who had run Beyers of 97, 91, and 90 in her last three starts would get just a 73 for running 3rd in a field of 12.

The 4th place finisher Mistical Plan ... who was a Grade 1 winning sprinter at the distance last year ... she would get just a 70 Beyer for running 4th of 12.

As for the comment you made about This Ones For Phil running only 1.40 seconds faster than older sprinters in the Sunshine Million F & M sprint on the same card ... when mega hyped Lost In the Fog won the Sunshine Million Dash at GP in 2005 - he ran only 0.40 seconds faster than Alix M. did in her Sunshine Million F & M Sprint win on the same card. Alix M. is no better than High Resolve.

your trying to correct beyers SF with more beyers math... :bang:

Im not saying Beyers screwed up the math or anything... I think some of you are implying I think the math is off... Im not implying the math is wrong, Im talking about the entire system being bad... horses earn or dont earn suitable numbers that they should... numbers can be one extreme to the other, when the horse himself puts the same effort in...

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 05:29 PM
there is no such miracle drug that makes horse go faster except for epogen, and that ruins the nervous system of the horse. it literally destroys them like chemotherapy to a human.

there are drugs that help a horse breath better, aleviate the aches and pains, and there are also treatments that are done like hypobarack chambers and shockwave therapy.



this is the point I try and make with most people... theres no drug to make a horse go faster... theres drugs to let a horse run his best... pain killers and breathing meds... with a large part of them being legal, and a few that arent...

Greyfox
01-30-2009, 05:39 PM
this is the point I try and make with most people... theres no drug to make a horse go faster... theres drugs to let a horse run his best... pain killers and breathing meds... with a large part of them being legal, and a few that arent...

You can look at it your way if you want. You can even believe that if you want.
I don't.
Case in point - Ben Johnson beat Carl Lewis in the 1988 Olympics 100 m dash.
In doing so, Johnson lowered his own World Record to 9.79 seconds.
Subsequently, tests showed Johnson was on drugs.
Without drugs Johnson could never replicate that figure again.
So I'll stick with the idea that drugs can and do make horses and people go faster. They do so because the various chemical interactions in the body including oxygen, lactic acids, fats and so on are being processed more efficiently maximizing the edge.
Of course you could give me all of the drugs in the world and I'd never be a runner. But I'd run faster than I can run now.
Yes. Drugs do make runners run faster and longer.

ralph_the_cat
01-30-2009, 05:47 PM
Subsequently, tests showed Johnson was on drugs.


exactly...


correction, there's no drug that makes a horse run outside of its ability that
(A) everyone uses (steriods etc)
(B) is tests
(C) the horse is alive the next day

Indulto
01-30-2009, 07:12 PM
this is the point I try and make with most people... theres no drug to make a horse go faster... theres drugs to let a horse run his best... pain killers and breathing meds... with a large part of them being legal, and a few that arent...rtc,
No more pussyfooting, please.

Wouldn't racing be more competitive (and better off) if all the starters in a race were preparted to run their best?

TOG (The Other Guy ;))

rastajenk
01-30-2009, 09:54 PM
Ok Ralphie...

since I like you...

I'll bite.

If you give the winner a 107 and shave 10 points off - you also have to do the same to the other dirt races on the card.
No, you don't. Sometimes the numbers come up contrary to logic. You just roll with it, and don't try to fit all the pegs into all the holes, whether they're round or square.

I'm a big Beyer fan, always have been. I like his numbers, his methodology, his reporting. I think he should be in the Racing Hall of Fame. But I tend to agree with Ralph and others who believe the numbers on this race may not be accurate indicators of the horses' abilities, and to frame an accusatory column based on those numbers is wrong. Discussions of drugs in racing are necessary, but they should not be based on speed ratings.

DrugS
01-30-2009, 10:36 PM
No, you don't. Sometimes the numbers come up contrary to logic.

How did the number come back contrary to logic?

Go re-read CJ's post.

The 2nd place finisher had previously run a 107 Beyer as a 2-year-old...and he and the winner smoked that big field in solid time over a very slow race track.

What do you think happened .. the track superintendant souped up the track after the first four dirt races - and than after the sprint race - he decided to slow it way down again?

slewis
01-30-2009, 11:22 PM
It's funny...Jerkens jumped up and beat a lot of legends with some fairly ordinary horses (by comparison). And yet, if he did that in this day and age, would he not be accused of the kind of wrongdoing Beyer wrote about the other day?

Food for thought.

Good point PA....

One might also discuss the Affirmed /Alydar battles where rumor has one running on sublimaze and the other on Hay oats and Water.:ThmbUp:

DrugS
01-31-2009, 01:44 AM
I wasn't alive when Jerkens was beating horses like Kelso and Secretariat - and I don't believe I've ever seen the form of horses like Beau Purple or Onion ... however, no one consistantly entered more longshots in top class Eastern stake races than Jerkens did.

It's easy to remember when horses like Wagon Limit win a collapsing Jockey Club Gold Cup over an off track against vastly superior superstars like Skip Away and Gentleman. Or when brilliant hall of famer Inside Information goes to her knees at the start - and Classy Mirage easily turns her back in the stretch of the Ballerina.

It's not quite as easy to remember when Jerkens outsiders are getting dusted by the giants in those big stakes. It happened a ton though.

Affirmed and Alydar both were outstanding horses from very early in their careers on. Both excellent sires as well - especially Alydar.

Not that breeding matters. But hey, Affirmed's trainer is related to Oscar Barrera and his owner is related to Marty Wolfson.

Dahoss9698
01-31-2009, 02:20 AM
I wasn't alive when Jerkens was beating horses like Kelso and Secretariat - and I don't believe I've ever seen the form of horses like Beau Purple or Onion ... however, no one consistantly entered more longshots in top class Eastern stake races than Jerkens did.

It's easy to remember when horses like Wagon Limit win a collapsing Jockey Club Gold Cup over an off track against vastly superior superstars like Skip Away and Gentleman. Or when brilliant hall of famer Inside Information goes to her knees at the start - and Classy Mirage easily turns her back in the stretch of the Ballerina.

It's not quite as easy to remember when Jerkens outsiders are getting dusted by the giants in those big stakes. It happened a ton though.

Affirmed and Alydar both were outstanding horses from very early in their careers on. Both excellent sires as well - especially Alydar.

Not that breeding matters. But hey, Affirmed's trainer is related to Oscar Barrera and his owner is related to Marty Wolfson.

Not that I really disagree at all, but Classy mirage was okay. She got lucky when Inside Info went down, but Classy Mirage could run. One of my first ever trips to the track was for that Ballerina.

JustRalph
01-31-2009, 05:38 AM
I just went over to the Bloodhorse website and watched the replay of the race.

Was this as easy as it looked? It looked like a straight hand ride down the stretch....and he cleared off nicely...?

I am wondering if the small screen made it look easier than it really was............ anybody see it live? Was it as easy as it looked?

JustRalph
01-31-2009, 06:08 AM
Beyer talks about the article on "At the Races"

http://www.thoroughbredracingradionetwork.com/index.php?option=com_events&task=view_detail&agid=431&year=2009&month=01&day=28&Itemid=35

hour two

rastajenk
01-31-2009, 08:48 AM
How did the number come back contrary to logic?It's the basis for the entire controversy, is it not? Just because all the various figure-makers came up with similarly impressive numbers doesn't make it logical.

Big jump up in figs = illegal meds is pretty shaky evidence; go into a hearing with that, and you'd never go into a hearing again.

NY BRED
01-31-2009, 08:57 AM
First question is how long after a race (days, months) can outside
experts test blood ,urine to detrmine if a horse was illegally
medicated.

If I were one of Beyer's targets, I'd be lining up a personal injury
lawsuit, unless there is a meidical issue which could be proven today



Secondly, trainers don't have to cheat by winning.Shape up races appear
to happen daily because the horse needs to be conditioned for a future
race, or the odds are well below the expectations of the owner.

mountainman
01-31-2009, 09:35 AM
First question is how long after a race (days, months) can outside
experts test blood ,urine to detrmine if a horse was illegally
medicated.

If I were one of Beyer's targets, I'd be lining up a personal injury
lawsuit, unless there is a meidical issue which could be proven today



Secondly, trainers don't have to cheat by winning.Shape up races appear
to happen daily because the horse needs to be conditioned for a future
race, or the odds are well below the expectations of the owner.

People forget that Beyer has been writing for a least as long as he's been playing horses. He knows how to cast aspersions without exposing himself to potential lawsuits. I'd bet there's not a syllable in the story that the aggrieved horsemen can successfully take to court.

Robert Fischer
01-31-2009, 09:43 AM
if no one accuses you of cheating, you aren't really that good

slewis
01-31-2009, 11:41 AM
I wasn't alive when Jerkens was beating horses like Kelso and Secretariat - and I don't believe I've ever seen the form of horses like Beau Purple or Onion ... however, no one consistantly entered more longshots in top class Eastern stake races than Jerkens did.

It's easy to remember when horses like Wagon Limit win a collapsing Jockey Club Gold Cup over an off track against vastly superior superstars like Skip Away and Gentleman. Or when brilliant hall of famer Inside Information goes to her knees at the start - and Classy Mirage easily turns her back in the stretch of the Ballerina.

It's not quite as easy to remember when Jerkens outsiders are getting dusted by the giants in those big stakes. It happened a ton though.

Affirmed and Alydar both were outstanding horses from very early in their careers on. Both excellent sires as well - especially Alydar.

Not that breeding matters. But hey, Affirmed's trainer is related to Oscar Barrera and his owner is related to Marty Wolfson.


Your description of Affirmed as an "excellent" sire has clearly brought to light how much you need to learn about this sport.
Mediocre would be giving him the benefit of the doubt.

twindouble
01-31-2009, 12:05 PM
if no one accuses you of cheating, you aren't really that good

Excellent point. When I was doing exceptionally well at the tracks or OTB, I was accused of being part of a syndicate being in on the "fix". That come about because of the people I used to cash tickets, guilt by association and rumors spread like wild flowers. I know the feeling when your doing things right, having success and you still get trashed. Wagering from home no one knows one way or the other but trainers will always be in the spot light. Well, my mail man knows what W2G's look like because he's also a horse player.

I supported Beyer in this thread because I'm convinced drugs do play a big roll in racing. Not just recently, it's been going on for a long time as I said and there's plenty of proof out there. Who, what, when, where and why is of no concern to me, as long as the mess gets cleaned up some how. Anyone who thinks drugs don't effect a horses performance or humans isn't living in the real world. With any drug there's positive and negative effects, just ask your doctor or any Vet. Drugs can also mask other ailments, other drugs and abuse can kill you as well as a horse.

I'm not knocking anyone who is supporting Dutrow or any other trainer. Hey, it would have been nice for me to get some outside of those that knew me well.


T.D.

DrugS
02-01-2009, 03:06 AM
Your description of Affirmed as an "excellent" sire has clearly brought to light how much you need to learn about this sport.
Mediocre would be giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Mediocre compared to what?

Affirmed sired at least six different horses who were multiple Grade 1 winning millionaires .... They are ...

* Flawlessly. Hall of Famer - multiple eclipse award champion - and 9 time Grade 1 winner

* Multiple Grade 1 winner and Multimillionaire Affirmed Success.

* 4 time Grade 1 winning millionaire Affluent

* Multiple Grade 1 winner - Canaidan Horse of the year - and multi millionaire Quiet Resolve. Who was also 2nd to Kalanisi in the Breeders Cup Turf.

* The Tin Man - a 4 time Grade 1 winner of over $3.6 million.

* Multiple Grade 1 winning millionaire Zoman - winner of Grade/Group 1's in both America and Europe.

Not to mention Affirmed also sired a Canadian Triple Crown winner (Peteski) - as well as fellow Canadian champions Charley Barley and One From Heaven.

Affirmed sired many excellent Euro turf horses besides Zoman ... Trusted Partner won the Group 1 Irish 1K Guineas and was highweight in her division in Ireland.

He also sired American runaway Grade 1 dirt winners like Buy The Firm (took hers by 7 lengths) and Mossflower (took hers by 12 lengths over a deep field) and Firm Stance was even good enough to win a Grade 1 inspite of being trainer by Mitch Shirota.

But hey, if I ever bragged on a message board about examing every NYRA runner up close .. and .. being tight with Dutrow .. I'd probably be every bit the condescending douche nozzle you are.

And please spare me the lecture of how Affirmed was a bust at stud because his offspring favored turf - didn't fetch big sales prices at yearling auctions - didn't tear up the training previews at 2yo in training sales - and weren't commercially fashionable. I'd rather hear about more sublimaze rumors.

My father ran a lot of horses on sublimaze and he swears ritalin was a far superior move-up drug.

PaceAdvantage
02-01-2009, 03:10 AM
Condescending douche nozzle?!?!?!?!

And here I just instituted a new "no tolerance name calling instant delete" policy over on off-topic, only to find this on the horse racing side of things...

Well, knowing both DrugS and slewis as I do, I am going to let this one slide, as I think the entertainment factor going forward will be way too high to risk by removing the ol' nozzle comment.

DrugS
02-01-2009, 03:28 AM
My bad PA. I'll make it up to everyone who posts here by not constantly reminding them how unbelievably good looking I am.

DrugS
02-01-2009, 03:39 AM
Not that I really disagree at all, but Classy mirage was okay. She got lucky when Inside Info went down, but Classy Mirage could run. One of my first ever trips to the track was for that Ballerina.

I don't know if you'll remember this or not...

But in Classy Mirage's prior start to her win over Inside Information in the '95 Ballerina ... she was defeated by Low Key Affair in the Honorable Miss Stakes.

In case anyone happens to be wondering who Low Key Affair was sired by ... the answer is Affirmed.

Twist Afleet was 3rd beaten a pole to Low Key Affair and Classy Mirage in that race .. and she went on an absolute tear .. winning five or six in a row after that race.

I totally agree that Classy Mirage was very good ... but Inside Information was beyond amazing that year.

KirisClown
02-01-2009, 05:52 AM
I don't know if you'll remember this or not...

But in Classy Mirage's prior start to her win over Inside Information in the '95 Ballerina ... she was defeated by Low Key Affair in the Honorable Miss Stakes.

In case anyone happens to be wondering who Low Key Affair was sired by ... the answer is Affirmed.

Twist Afleet was 3rd beaten a pole to Low Key Affair and Classy Mirage in that race .. and she went on an absolute tear .. winning five or six in a row after that race.

I totally agree that Classy Mirage was very good ... but Inside Information was beyond amazing that year.


I believe Low Key Affair got a nice setup for that win.. Jerkens got some revenge on Lukas the next day when King's Fiction ran down Lord Carson...

Classy Mirage for one reason or another ran some of the best races in her career against Phipps horses.. on different occasions she beat Dispute, Educated Risk and the already mentioned Inside Information..

I wonder if the 95 BC Sprint would have turned out any different if she hadnt scratched out..

slewis
02-01-2009, 12:18 PM
Mediocre compared to what?

Affirmed sired at least six different horses who were multiple Grade 1 winning millionaires .... They are ...

* Flawlessly. Hall of Famer - multiple eclipse award champion - and 9 time Grade 1 winner

* Multiple Grade 1 winner and Multimillionaire Affirmed Success.

* 4 time Grade 1 winning millionaire Affluent

* Multiple Grade 1 winner - Canaidan Horse of the year - and multi millionaire Quiet Resolve. Who was also 2nd to Kalanisi in the Breeders Cup Turf.

* The Tin Man - a 4 time Grade 1 winner of over $3.6 million.

* Multiple Grade 1 winning millionaire Zoman - winner of Grade/Group 1's in both America and Europe.

Not to mention Affirmed also sired a Canadian Triple Crown winner (Peteski) - as well as fellow Canadian champions Charley Barley and One From Heaven.

Affirmed sired many excellent Euro turf horses besides Zoman ... Trusted Partner won the Group 1 Irish 1K Guineas and was highweight in her division in Ireland.

He also sired American runaway Grade 1 dirt winners like Buy The Firm (took hers by 7 lengths) and Mossflower (took hers by 12 lengths over a deep field) and Firm Stance was even good enough to win a Grade 1 inspite of being trainer by Mitch Shirota.

But hey, if I ever bragged on a message board about examing every NYRA runner up close .. and .. being tight with Dutrow .. I'd probably be every bit the condescending douche nozzle you are.

And please spare me the lecture of how Affirmed was a bust at stud because his offspring favored turf - didn't fetch big sales prices at yearling auctions - didn't tear up the training previews at 2yo in training sales - and weren't commercially fashionable. I'd rather hear about more sublimaze rumors.

My father ran a lot of horses on sublimaze and he swears ritalin was a far superior move-up drug.

I gave my opinion of Affirmed... who has had the opportunity to cover many powerful mares but had a ather weak career. My opinion.. your lack of.

Just to set the record straight .. I'm far from tight with Dutrow.... or any trainer for that matter.....and that suits me just fine.

And since there are people at NYRA who know the both of us ..I invite you to ask those who you know, to point ME out ... then walk over and have the balls to call me that to my face.....

which you wont.. like all the other 'tough guys" at the track..
I'm up for the challenge... are you?????

PaceAdvantage
02-01-2009, 01:50 PM
You see, I told you this was going to get good...

Why am I channeling the scene from Goodfellas where Jimmy Conway is asking Tommy if he's "gonna let him get away with that?"

One of my favorite scenes (warning: the following scene is Rated R):

WtIGwNEpZdE

the little guy
02-01-2009, 03:32 PM
My bad PA. I'll make it up to everyone who posts here by not constantly reminding them how unbelievably good looking I am.


You might not be quite as handsome when I point you out to Slewis.

Ten straight years in the gym and he'll still whip the snot out of you.

slewis
02-01-2009, 03:53 PM
You see, I told you this was going to get good...

Why am I channeling the scene from Goodfellas where Jimmy Conway is asking Tommy if he's "gonna let him get away with that?"

One of my favorite scenes (warning: the following scene is Rated R):

WtIGwNEpZdE

:lol:

Only on PA!!

joanied
02-01-2009, 05:39 PM
:jump: :jump: :jump: Oh man....this is getting really good...we even get to see a great video clip from Wise Guys:ThmbUp: ...very :cool: PA...
is Slewis gonna make his bones on DrugS ;) ....tune in for the next installment:D

cj
02-01-2009, 05:49 PM
You might not be quite as handsome when I point you out to Slewis.

Ten straight years in the gym and he'll still whip the snot out of you.

Seeing how he looks just like Nenad Krstic of the OKC Thunder, he isn't really good looking anyway.

DrugS
02-02-2009, 01:45 AM
You might not be quite as handsome when I point you out to Slewis.

Ten straight years in the gym and he'll still whip the snot out of you.

Who cares.

I can still slap him silly on a message board ... and really ... isn't that all that matters?

DrugS
02-02-2009, 02:32 AM
And since there are people at NYRA who know the both of us ..I invite you to ask those who you know, to point ME out ... then walk over and have the balls to call me that to my face.....

which you wont.. like all the other 'tough guys" at the track..
I'm up for the challenge... are you?????

You're up for a challenge?

I baited you a bit ... leaving the door open for you when I purposefully left out Bint Pasha - a multiple Group 1 winning daughter of Affirmed who was a champion in France.

DrugS
02-02-2009, 02:40 AM
You see, I told you this was going to get good...

Why am I channeling the scene from Goodfellas where Jimmy Conway is asking Tommy if he's "gonna let him get away with that?"

One of my favorite scenes (warning: the following scene is Rated R):

WtIGwNEpZdE

One of my favorite scenes ....



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjWFZPJZTxU

Indulto
02-04-2009, 12:07 AM
http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2009/02/03/sports/horseracing/doc4987ce32ecd9b562231384.txt (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2009/02/03/sports/horseracing/doc4987ce32ecd9b562231384.txt)
Rick Dutrow: Maven or menace?
By Nick Kling February 3, 2009… Handicapper and author Andy Beyer wrote a column … questioning the validity of This Ones for Phil's success. Readers were presented a thinly-veiled conclusion that something more than horsemanship was at work. …

… Beyer and others have labeled Rick Dutrow as part of a group called "supertrainers." That is, horsemen who regularly produce unexpected results, or who win races at a percentage unmatched by legendary trainers of the game. To their critics, men like Dutrow, recent Eclipse winner Steve Asmussen, and mid-Atlantic claiming maven Scott Lake, to paraphrase Beyer, epitomize what's wrong in American racing.

At the heart of Beyer's attack on Dutrow's handling of This Ones for Phil is the aforementioned dramatic improvement. The horse was assigned a Beyer speed figure of 117 for the Millions Dash. That is 36 points higher than his previous best, the equivalent of 15 lengths on the Beyer scale.

… If the linchpin of Beyer's indictment of Dutrow is the 36 points, his thesis is flawed. As public handicapper for The Record, I look at Beyer speed figures on a daily basis. Many racehorses move forward that much, or more, at least once in their career. The notion that a 36 point improvement is unusual is incorrect.

… In the 1990s, when Beyer figures became a regular feature of DRF, there were several Eclipse-winning Thoroughbreds whose best figure rose 20-30 points or more in the several months between the summer of their juvenile year and the start of their three-year-old season. …

… I harbor no affection for Rick Dutrow. He was penalized by New Jersey officials once for helping to manipulate a horse which ultimately won the Queen's Plate at Woodbine. He's had plenty of medication positives, and once had to be re-suspended for violating New York's no contact rule with his barn while on a suspension. …

… However, I've had it up to here with people who make accusations with no substantive proof. Among the people Beyer lumped into the supertrainer group was Marty Wolfson, an outstanding horseman. Wolfson, along with his wife, spends an incredible amount of time working with his horses. The notion that Wolfson cheats is ludicrous.

Some people are just better at what they do.

Trainers who cheat should be penalized so hard they are hounded out of the game. But let's prove it first.

cj
02-04-2009, 12:09 AM
http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2009/02/03/sports/horseracing/doc4987ce32ecd9b562231384.txt (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2009/02/03/sports/horseracing/doc4987ce32ecd9b562231384.txt)
Rick Dutrow: Maven or menace?
By Nick Kling February 3, 2009

I would love to see his list of horses that improve 36 points from a lifetime top after 8 starts in the first start with a new trainer.

It is good to know Wolfson and his wife are substantially better horsemen than Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott.

Indulto
02-04-2009, 01:02 AM
I would love to see his list of horses that improve 36 points from a lifetime top after 8 starts in the first start with a new trainer.

It is good to know Wolfson and his wife are substantially better horsemen than Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott.Why not request that list in a comment to the article at the Troy record site?

Since the article didn't even mention Mott or Pletcher, what is the relevance of your conclusions regarding them relative to Wolfson and his wife?

PaceAdvantage
02-04-2009, 03:55 AM
It is good to know Wolfson and his wife are substantially better horsemen than Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott.It warms my heart to see Pletcher getting the respect he deserves around here...why, just a few scant months ago, he was being lumped in with the Dutrow's and the Asmussen's of the world, and not just because of his snazzy hairdo.

gm10
02-04-2009, 06:57 AM
I've disagreed with Beyer on many occasions, but he's got it absolutely right this time. It was a bullsh*t performance. The horse hardly came off the bridle and improved by 10 lentghs (my own calculations). The second, third and fourth all ran within their previous range which validates the numbers I have for this race.

Even under the current lax regulations, Dutrow is a cheat. That is my opinion.

cj
02-04-2009, 09:23 AM
Why not request that list in a comment to the article at the Troy record site?

Since the article didn't even mention Mott or Pletcher, what is the relevance of your conclusions regarding them relative to Wolfson and his wife?

You highlighted about Wolfson. It lists him as an incredible horseman and notes his wife spends many hours with the horses. Since many of his great "horsemenship" feats have been accomplished with recent Pletcher and Mott trainees, what does that say about them? They aren't good horsemen and don't spend enough hours with the horses. Isn't that the logical inference?

As for requesting the list, I don't need it. His article is flat out wrong. Sure, lots of horses move 36 points from one race to another, but to say improvement like the one this horse had is common place is pure folly.

While he may look at Beyer speed figures on a daily basis, I can assure you I look at 30 times as many as he does annually.

cj
02-04-2009, 09:28 AM
It warms my heart to see Pletcher getting the respect he deserves around here...why, just a few scant months ago, he was being lumped in with the Dutrow's and the Asmussen's of the world, and not just because of his snazzy hairdo.

I am quite sure I have never said Todd Pletcher isn't a very good horsemen. He also has never really been known to have the miracle move ups others have had. He has had a few shady issues, to be nice, but nothing like some of those mentioned in Beyer's article. Wasn't he the only one in the BC to get popped with a positive this year?

It is very puzzling what has happened with him. Two Saratoga meets ago he went into a slump, and has never really come out of it. I'm also not sure he has ever had the huge numbers some of the so called "super trainers" put up.

Relwob Owner
02-04-2009, 09:32 AM
That is ridiculous...every trainer, owner ect would be punished, and just how big do you think the fields would be if they cut purses.


Couldnt agree more....that is tyhe most illogical suggestion I have ever heard of.....the best suggestion I have heard is to suspend the owners as well. Every single owner knows(or should know) exactly what theior trainers are doing-the way it stands now, the owners can have their horses juiced and just keep switching trainers as the trainers get caught. If owners were suspended too, it would really provide some actual punishment and provide for some accountability, which is sorely missing.

GlenninOhio
02-04-2009, 06:24 PM
I am quite sure I have never said Todd Pletcher isn't a very good horsemen. He also has never really been known to have the miracle move ups others have had. He has had a few shady issues, to be nice, but nothing like some of those mentioned in Beyer's article. Wasn't he the only one in the BC to get popped with a positive this year?

It is very puzzling what has happened with him. Two Saratoga meets ago he went into a slump, and has never really come out of it. I'm also not sure he has ever had the huge numbers some of the so called "super trainers" put up.

I think he has been in the upper-20's on win percentage, but I agree he's not been deep into "super" territory.

My best Pletcher-related story is when I was sitting at a dining room table with a prominent owner a few years ago who was pulling out various PP's in an attempt to "prove" that Pletcher had to be doing shady things with the horses he was taking over from other trainers. This guy's trainer at the time was ... Patrick Biancone.

ralph_the_cat
02-04-2009, 06:52 PM
I would love to see his list of horses that improve 36 points from a lifetime top after 8 starts in the first start with a new trainer.


Saying this horse improved 36 points or 15 lengths from its last start, and using that as an arguement is INSANE....

You are comparing a 1 1/16th turf race to a next out race of 6F on the dirt... you cant compare the 2... :bang:

do you realize how many horses get beat 15 lengths in a mile race and switch to a sprint and win, or how many horses get beat 15 lengths in a sprint and win going a mile, ESPECIALLY when they are young, and still finding their "best distance"....

his last sprint was 5 months ago!... and he ran 3 lengths behind a horse called "You Luckie Man".... who he beat by only 2 lengths last week... using common sense, he improved 5-6 lengths more than "You Lucky Man" did at the sprint distance of 6F over a 5 month period by switching from an 11% trainer to a Derby winning trainer... unrealistic? no...

but wait, Im wrong, I dont have any math behind it, Im just reading the racing program, my methodology is old and out dated... :rolleyes:

cj
02-04-2009, 07:01 PM
Saying this horse improved 36 points or 15 lengths from its last start, and using that as an arguement is INSANE....

You are comparing a 1 1/16th turf race to a next out race of 6F on the dirt... you cant compare the 2... :bang:


I'm not saying he improved 15 lengths from his last start. I'm saying he improved 15 lengths from his lifetime best, which happened to come at 6f when he broke his maiden by 6. It isn't like he improved off of some poor effort where he didn't run. It also isn't like the horse isn't versatile. He was very consistent figure wise whether sprinting, routing, dirt, or grass.

I make my own figures that include adjustments for things like pace, weight, and maturity. The horse improved a whole bunch last race. Comparing him to how he ran against You Luckie Mann doesn't make much sense since he has improved nearly as much for another "miracle worker".

cnollfan
02-04-2009, 07:18 PM
Saying this horse improved 36 points or 15 lengths from its last start, and using that as an arguement is INSANE....

You are comparing a 1 1/16th turf race to a next out race of 6F on the dirt... you cant compare the 2... :bang:

do you realize how many horses get beat 15 lengths in a mile race and switch to a sprint and win, or how many horses get beat 15 lengths in a sprint and win going a mile, ESPECIALLY when they are young, and still finding their "best distance"....

his last sprint was 5 months ago!... and he ran 3 lengths behind a horse called "You Luckie Man".... who he beat by only 2 lengths last week... using common sense, he improved 5-6 lengths more than "You Lucky Man" did at the sprint distance of 6F over a 5 month period by switching from an 11% trainer to a Derby winning trainer... unrealistic? no...

but wait, Im wrong, I dont have any math behind it, Im just reading the racing program, my methodology is old and out dated... :rolleyes:

Aside from does-he-or-doesn't-he questions about Dutrow, your narrative interpretation of This One's For Phil's past performances makes a lot of sense to me.

Indulto
02-04-2009, 07:20 PM
You highlighted about Wolfson. It lists him as an incredible horseman and notes his wife spends many hours with the horses. Since many of his great "horsemenship" feats have been accomplished with recent Pletcher and Mott trainees, what does that say about them? They aren't good horsemen and don't spend enough hours with the horses. Isn't that the logical inference?

As for requesting the list, I don't need it. His article is flat out wrong. Sure, lots of horses move 36 points from one race to another, but to say improvement like the one this horse had is common place is pure folly.

While he may look at Beyer speed figures on a daily basis, I can assure you I look at 30 times as many as he does annually.Apparently Kling isn't the only source of respect for Wolfson. Did you listen to Byk's interview with him after Beyer's article appeared?

I disagree that one should logically infer from Wofson's success with former Mottt and Pletcher horses that he is a better trainer. What makes more sense to me is that with his smaller operation, he was able to spend more time with each horse, and without as high a profile, didn't get as much pressure from more owners expecting results.

Saying that something isn't unusual isn't the same as saying it is commonplace. Kling's point was that the 36 point move by itself was not enough evidence that Dutrow cheated to obtain that result. He also noted, however, there was acceptable evidence of other wrongdoing on Dutrow's part.

I'm sure you do look at Beyer's for more tracks than Kling does, but you both probably look at the same subset involving supertrainers on major circuits. The study of Beyer figures he conducted for his artcle was in addition to looking at them in the course of determining his public selections.

Your putting the knock on Kling doesn't make him wrong or you right.

cj
02-04-2009, 07:38 PM
Apparently Kling isn't the only source of respect for Wolfson. Did you listen to Byk's interview with him after Beyer's article appeared?


Interview? It sounded more like one guy talking and the other guy agreeing with every single word he said.

ralph_the_cat
02-04-2009, 07:55 PM
I'm not saying he improved 15 lengths from his last start. I'm saying he improved 15 lengths from his lifetime best, which happened to come at 6f when he broke his maiden by 6. It isn't like he improved off of some poor effort where he didn't run. It also isn't like the horse isn't versatile. He was very consistent figure wise whether sprinting, routing, dirt, or grass.

I make my own figures that include adjustments for things like pace, weight, and maturity. The horse improved a whole bunch last race. Comparing him to how he ran against You Luckie Mann doesn't make much sense since he has improved nearly as much for another "miracle worker".

I didnt really mean to direct that at you, In Beyers article he mentioned about the switch to Dutrow Improved the horse 15 lengths, acting as if it happened over night, not once did he state in the article that the horse had not run that distance for 5 months, which was maybe his 3rd or so start as a YOUNG 2yo... The main focus should be that the horse improved 15 lengths from his early 2yo season until now, with a 11% to Derby trainer switch... I dont mean to repeat myself, but, not unrealistic IMO... that a 3yo could improve 15 lengths from its early 2yo season...

cj
02-04-2009, 08:07 PM
I didnt really mean to direct that at you, In Beyers article he mentioned about the switch to Dutrow Improved the horse 15 lengths, acting as if it happened over night, not once did he state in the article that the horse had not run that distance for 5 months, which was maybe his 3rd or so start as a YOUNG 2yo... The main focus should be that the horse improved 15 lengths from his early 2yo season until now, with a 11% to Derby trainer switch... I dont mean to repeat myself, but, not unrealistic IMO... that a 3yo could improve 15 lengths from its early 2yo season...

No problem, I like a good debate. However, it is certainly, very, very rare for any horse to improve from early June to January as a 3yo by 15 lengths while sprinting. It is a lot harder for horses to improve by leaps and bounds sprinting. Most that improve a lot do so with a change in distance (longer) or by changing surfaces. They also do it after running poorly, not while winning off by 6 lengths.

Indulto
02-04-2009, 08:29 PM
Interview? It sounded more like one guy talking and the other guy agreeing with every single word he said.Would you characterize the Beyer interview the same way?

I thought that was one of Derby Trail's finer moments; taking it straight to Beyer who also came back with some good points. In the Wolfson segment, it appeared he was just providing him rebuttal time, while obviously supporting him.

So discrediting the technique -- at least in this case -- didn't diminish that support

cj
02-05-2009, 12:22 AM
No, I would not characterize the Beyer interview the same. He actually asked questions and at least somewhat didn't take his word as gospel. Beyer was also willing to take phone calls. You think Wolfson was going to do so?

I think the obvious support of Wolfson makes the whole rebuttal dubious at best.

JustRalph
02-05-2009, 12:46 AM
Would you characterize the Beyer interview the same way?

I thought that was one of Derby Trail's finer moments; taking it straight to Beyer who also came back with some good points. In the Wolfson segment, it appeared he was just providing him rebuttal time, while obviously supporting him.

So discrediting the technique -- at least in this case -- didn't diminish that support

When the caller called Beyer a Knucklehead, now that was good radio :lol:

proximity
02-05-2009, 05:22 AM
Couldnt agree more....that is tyhe most illogical suggestion I have ever heard of.....the best suggestion I have heard is to suspend the owners as well. Every single owner knows(or should know) exactly what theior trainers are doing-the way it stands now, the owners can have their horses juiced and just keep switching trainers as the trainers get caught. If owners were suspended too, it would really provide some actual punishment and provide for some accountability, which is sorely missing.

good post.

perhaps though the owner should be given a pass on their first infraction. then they would have to make a decision whether or not to stay with the trainer who got the positive with their horse. this would protect the honest owner from being an innocent victim of a cheating trainer.

on the owner's second drug positive though (regardless of trainer)..... owner suspension.

owner's third positive (regardless of trainer)..... even longer suspension.

4th positive: permanent suspension.

slewis
02-05-2009, 11:11 AM
Couldnt agree more....that is tyhe most illogical suggestion I have ever heard of.....the best suggestion I have heard is to suspend the owners as well. Every single owner knows(or should know) exactly what theior trainers are doing-the way it stands now, the owners can have their horses juiced and just keep switching trainers as the trainers get caught. If owners were suspended too, it would really provide some actual punishment and provide for some accountability, which is sorely missing.

Respectfully,


You need to either buy some racehorses and learn... or speak to some honest people who own horses and will tell you the following:

MOST OWNERS HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEIR TRAINERS ARE DOING WITH THEIR HORSES.. and trainers will do their best to keep it that way.

I'm waiting for the day when a trainer I have horses with tells me "go and bet, I juiced him up"... that's the day I box 4 or 5 other horses in the race, and throw my horse out!

cj
02-05-2009, 11:33 AM
his last sprint was 5 months ago!... and he ran 3 lengths behind a horse called "You Luckie Man".... who he beat by only 2 lengths last week... using common sense, he improved 5-6 lengths more than "You Lucky Man" did at the sprint distance of 6F over a 5 month period by switching from an 11% trainer to a Derby winning trainer... unrealistic? no...



This is akin to telling me Barry Bonds didn't cheat, he only improved from 49 home runs to 73. Mark McGwire went from 58 to 70 and Sammy Sosa 40 to 66. Just normal development.

cj
02-05-2009, 11:46 AM
Respectfully,


You need to either buy some racehorses and learn... or speak to some honest people who own horses and will tell you the following:

MOST OWNERS HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEIR TRAINERS ARE DOING WITH THEIR HORSES.. and trainers will do their best to keep it that way.

I'm waiting for the day when a trainer I have horses with tells me "go and bet, I juiced him up"... that's the day I box 4 or 5 other horses in the race, and throw my horse out!

What you say is very true, and one thing I've never understood. I guess this is why I don't own horses. I would never allow myself to be treated that way by a trainer.

ralph_the_cat
02-05-2009, 05:26 PM
This is akin to telling me Barry Bonds didn't cheat, he only improved from 49 home runs to 73.

If a player hit 49 homers his rookie season, and then hit 73 in his 2nd season... We could compare the 2.... :)

If a players best year was 49 homers thru 10 seasons and suddenly he hits 73, I would have no problem saying...
"The guy found an edge and it may not be legal"...

-not too mention there's a growing aspect for horses from 2-3 years old... easy to put on 100lbs for a horse... its not normal for a human to put on 20lbs from age 22 to 23....rookie to 2nd year season...

I think we get a little off track when we humans starts to compare horses to us...

hell, between humans and horses, there's a receptor thats different, humans and horses react different to steriods and some other drugs like cleunbuterol etc...

proximity
02-06-2009, 01:51 AM
Respectfully,


You need to either buy some racehorses and learn... or speak to some honest people who own horses and will tell you the following:

MOST OWNERS HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEIR TRAINERS ARE DOING WITH THEIR HORSES.. and trainers will do their best to keep it that way.

I'm waiting for the day when a trainer I have horses with tells me "go and bet, I juiced him up"... that's the day I box 4 or 5 other horses in the race, and throw my horse out!

it is more of a mid-atlantic racino thing. (pha, pen, ct,.....)

see tonyk's post on nacumi's jayne vaders thread to see how the game works at these tracks.

Relwob Owner
02-08-2009, 11:18 AM
Respectfully,


You need to either buy some racehorses and learn... or speak to some honest people who own horses and will tell you the following:

MOST OWNERS HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THEIR TRAINERS ARE DOING WITH THEIR HORSES.. and trainers will do their best to keep it that way.

I'm waiting for the day when a trainer I have horses with tells me "go and bet, I juiced him up"... that's the day I box 4 or 5 other horses in the race, and throw my horse out!


Respectfully,

I do own horses. I have owned them for five years and I currently own five and run them at Charlestown and Laurel. I have been going to the track since I was ten and over those twenty five years have learned quite a bit. Telling me to "learn" indicates a certain arrogance on your part, and makes little sense after saying "respectfully" before it, because your post wasnt in the ballpark of being "respectful".....I would say that you need to learn to post in a way that doesnt come across as talking down to others....


I do agree that most owners do look the other way and dont know what their trainers are doing and that actually backs up my contention that owners should be punished. If they were held accountable for the trainers' actions, they would have to know what is going on.

Bubba X
02-09-2009, 10:21 AM
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02072009/sports/horseracing/speed_figures_alone_dont_prove_drug_chea_153988.ht m?page=0

- Historic top trainer win %'s not "dwarfed" by so called super trainers
- Notable review of Monmouth's testing of all of 40+ Levine horses.... all negative.

slewis
02-09-2009, 10:53 AM
Respectfully,

I do own horses. I have owned them for five years and I currently own five and run them at Charlestown and Laurel. I have been going to the track since I was ten and over those twenty five years have learned quite a bit. Telling me to "learn" indicates a certain arrogance on your part, and makes little sense after saying "respectfully" before it, because your post wasnt in the ballpark of being "respectful".....I would say that you need to learn to post in a way that doesnt come across as talking down to others....


I do agree that most owners do look the other way and dont know what their trainers are doing and that actually backs up my contention that owners should be punished. If they were held accountable for the trainers' actions, they would have to know what is going on.

I'm really not trying to be disrespectful and apologize if I came off thet way.

On the other hand, if what your telling me is true, then you know that it is IMPOSSIBLE to know what your horse is having done to it.
(And there was a period I was at the barn EVERY SINGLE DAY).

I cant even get honest answers from the vets working on our horses.
Trainers tell them not to say this and "dont mention that" and if they're 100% up front with us, the trainer will never use them again.

So now I'll ask you "how do you know if your horse is/was juiced" do you think ANY trainer is going to tell you a trick he may have up his sleeve?
Or if he's milkshaking??? Am I to assume if your trainer moves a horse of yours up 30 beyer points and you ask him how he did it, and he replies with "I changed his feed " or "I used a different wormer medication" your not going to believe it?? Or are you running out to hire a private investigator and fire the trainer?
I try to portray to people on this forum the reality of the sport from the backstretch prospective. I'm not saying we'll agree on everything that occurs but you're suggesting holding owners accountable is very unrealistic and ridiculous, especially on a circuit like Charlestown. We race in NY and FL and have horses claimed from us with SERIOUS issues (like you may get one more race out of this horse and dont train him up to it) who show up at Charlestown and race a dozen times before falling from grace. I guess the trainers are more competant at Charlestown and Laurel and like country living as opposed to the prospect of earning 500k per yr and training million dollar yearlings. Of course you'd have to live in the big city where us naive folk live.

Relwob Owner
02-09-2009, 12:09 PM
I'm really not trying to be disrespectful and apologize if I came off thet way.

On the other hand, if what your telling me is true, then you know that it is IMPOSSIBLE to know what your horse is having done to it.
(And there was a period I was at the barn EVERY SINGLE DAY).

I cant even get honest answers from the vets working on our horses.
Trainers tell them not to say this and "dont mention that" and if they're 100% up front with us, the trainer will never use them again.

So now I'll ask you "how do you know if your horse is/was juiced" do you think ANY trainer is going to tell you a trick he may have up his sleeve?
Or if he's milkshaking??? Am I to assume if your trainer moves a horse of yours up 30 beyer points and you ask him how he did it, and he replies with "I changed his feed " or "I used a different wormer medication" your not going to believe it?? Or are you running out to hire a private investigator and fire the trainer?
I try to portray to people on this forum the reality of the sport from the backstretch prospective. I'm not saying we'll agree on everything that occurs but you're suggesting holding owners accountable is very unrealistic and ridiculous, especially on a circuit like Charlestown. We race in NY and FL and have horses claimed from us with SERIOUS issues (like you may get one more race out of this horse and dont train him up to it) who show up at Charlestown and race a dozen times before falling from grace. I guess the trainers are more competant at Charlestown and Laurel and like country living as opposed to the prospect of earning 500k per yr and training million dollar yearlings. Of course you'd have to live in the big city where us naive folk live.


No worries my man, just sticking up for myself :)


As far as your questions go-I understand your point of view and understand your point about educating people from the backstretch perspective. I dont know everything my trainer does but I do know that if he got busted for drugs, I would question using him. Plus, I am a realist and know that any trainer that improves his horses that much isnt for me because where there is smoke, there is fire. I would rather lose money than use a juice trainer....

My question back to you is how do we punish trainers? The current way is that they get suspended for a relatively short period, hand off to the same trainer, sit out and then get back in it-heck, Biancone got caught with cobra venom and was out for a year and is now back! so, I think it can be said that the current methods dont provide much of a deterrent.

So, what would you suggest? My take is that the owners are the ones making things happen and need to be held accountable as well-another poster had a good suggestion about an owner getting grades of punishment and then being held accountable-that makes sense because it protects the owner from getting tagged from one random one but punishes based on repeat violations.

Robert Cole here in the east is a great example-one of his trainers gets caught, he just goes on to the next one-meanwhile all of the purses he won while using that trainer stay in his pocket and he never gets punished. He could have four of his trainers busted in a year and he would never lose a dime. How would things changed if he couldnt own after multiple violations? He would take a much closer look at who he uses and what they do and that is what needs to happen, in my opinion.

jotb
02-09-2009, 02:24 PM
Hello Rewob Owner:

I sent you a Private Message about a week ago and was just wondering if you, know how to retrieve these PM'S. Please let me know if you can.

Thank you in advance,
Joe

Indulto
02-24-2009, 06:12 PM
No, I would not characterize the Beyer interview the same. He actually asked questions and at least somewhat didn't take his word as gospel. Beyer was also willing to take phone calls. You think Wolfson was going to do so?

I think the obvious support of Wolfson makes the whole rebuttal dubious at best.Beyer appears to have reversed his field on Wolfson:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/23/AR2009022302714.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/23/AR2009022302714.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns)
Is 'Supertrainer' Wolfson for Real?
By Andrew Beyer February 24, 2009

cj
02-24-2009, 07:45 PM
Beyer appears to have reversed his field on Wolfson:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/23/AR2009022302714.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/23/AR2009022302714.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns)
Is 'Supertrainer' Wolfson for Real?
By Andrew Beyer February 24, 2009

You think? I didn't get that at all, but he was allowing other's opinions to be heard.

It is difficult to believe that these trainers succeed because they know so much more about basic horse care than top professionals in their business. As a result, even a trainer such as Wolfson -- who has earned respect over a long period of time -- won't get the benefit of the doubt when he performs his amazing feats.

Indulto
02-24-2009, 08:53 PM
You think? I didn't get that at all, but he was allowing other's opinions to be heard.Also from the article:… When I wrote a recent column about "supertrainers" whose feats are so amazing that they raise suspicions about the use of illegal substances, horsemen at Gulfstream Park protested vehemently. A committee of trainers declared that these allegations brought "discredit to the game."

Some of these very trainers have records of drug violations that should make them hesitant to accuse anyone of discrediting the game. But at least one trainer cited in the column does have the standing to voice his objections. Marty Wolfson is, in some ways, the quintessential supertrainer. He wins races at a phenomenal rate; when he acquires horses, they frequently improve by many lengths over the best previous form of their lives. Yet Wolfson, 57, has never received a significant suspension for a drug infraction. His record of consistent success has earned him respect as a skilled horseman. …… Wolfson took over the training of Miesque's Approval from Hall of Famer Bill Mott shortly before the horse turned 7. The old campaigner's best days appeared to be behind him; he had most recently finished out of the money in a $50,000 claiming race. Yet after less than three months in Wolfson's care, Miesque's Approval was rejuvenated, and at the end of the 2006 season he unleashed an explosive rally to win the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile. How did the trainer do it? "There were a lot of things involved," Wolfson replied. "But the main thing I did was to switch shoes, going from a size 3 to size 6."

When I expressed incredulity that a new pair of shoes could account for such a dramatic change, Wolfson said: "I disagree with you on that. Miesque's Approval had always been a very sulky horse. He didn't like to train." The shoes and some other changes improved his attitude, Wolfson said, and the improvement in his form followed. …Only Beyer himself can settle this, but I’ve never seen him backpedal before.