Stat on favorite winning if .....

[andicap]

We all know favorites win 30-35% of the time.

If you assume another horse will finish 2nd, a longshot at 20-1 odds say.
Would this change your assumptions in terms of how often favorites will win.

In other words, if I come up with a spot play where longshots finish second 15% of the time, should I assume favorites will win the race about 30%-35% of the time OR because you know the chalk won't finish second will the favorites winning percentage be somewhat higher in this specific instance?

[oddsmaven]

In your example, you pegged longshots as 15% for grabbing 2nd...it may depend on how many longshots there are and what is your cut-off for defining longshot (20:1?)

But for arguments sake, let's say you figured out certain races containing longshots that had a better chance of finishing second then the betting suggested (though for 2nd, win odds are not a true reflection on what the public is doing in terms of finishing 2nd ;- bottom half of exacta & place pools indicate that) - then I would agree that if there was a "fixed" higher per cent of some longshot snagging 2nd, it ups the chances of all the other horses filling in all of the other slots, including favorites running 1st (and 3rd, etc. for that matter).

One other thought - I believe that when a field gets crushed, longshots are more likely to run 2nd then usual, so when there is a "heavy favorite" who runs to expectation, I'm not surprised at bombs finishing 2nd.

[misscashalot]

We all know favorites win 30-35% of the time. If you assume another horse will finish 2nd, a longshot at 20-1 odds say.
Would this change your assumptions in terms of how often favorites will win.


In a sampling of 43,400 races on the NYRA circuit
5,330 won at 10-1 or more 12%

The fav ran 2nd 1,530 29%

---------------------------------

In the same sampling, when the fav won 15,400/43,400 35%
a longshot of 10-1 or more ran second 2,540/15,400 16%

All distances, all surfaces

[twindouble]

In a sampling of 43,400 races on the NYRA circuit
5,330 won at 10-1 or more 12%

The fav ran 2nd 1,530 29%

---------------------------------

In the same sampling, when the fav won 15,400/43,400 35%
a longshot of 10-1 or more ran second 2,540/15,400 16%

All distances, all surfaces

What about this, say you played 20 races for the day at 3 different tracks, of those 20 races the chalk ran out in 10 races (off the board), on the board 5 times, 2nd 3rd or 4th. No, I'm not dreaming, I would think many players here have been there.

T.D.

[misscashalot]

TD please answer this:

A- It is likey that on Wednesday In NY, Cal and Fla
there will be no winning favorites

B- On Wednesday it more likely there will be 35% winning favorites

[twindouble]

TD please answer this:

A- It is likey that on Wednesday In NY, Cal and Fla
there will be no winning favorites

B- On Wednesday it more likely there will be 35% winning favorites

Actually the day of the week is of no concern to me, it's the race or races I decide to bet that counts with me. When it comes to Cal tracks they can't come up with so many carryovers in the pick 6 with just chalk winning, there has to be a decline in the percentage of chalks winning to achieve those carryovers, I would think. Primarily because many players key chalk in the pick 6 because they don't have the money to go as deep as they should to even have a fair chance. Not only that, like me I'm less apt to wager in other pools as a result of those bad conditions. The norm is that 33 to 35 % the chalk winning, meaning 65% in your example they get beat by others be it 2nd or 3d choice or longer odds horses. I wouldn't play the game if the chalk won all the time anyway. For me getting locked in to stats with my play wouldn't work, ESP today. There's many ways to cut the mustard with the pools we have, applying a flexible a wagering strategy, providing the conditions warrant a wager. Racing and wagering is what I enjoy and I don't want to get bored to death sitting out races. When two or three of those races require the ALL button or going 6 deep in the picks puts a damper on my play. If I didn't have friends that are hooked on Cal tracks, I would have been long gone. Being on the same page with others makes the game more enjoyable, for me anyway. Like I said, I'm hanging in but investing more.


T.D.

[SMOO]

I wouldn't play the game if the chalk won all the time anyway.

I would. I would play nothing but chalk. :lol:

[twindouble]

I would. I would play nothing but chalk. :lol:

Hey SMOO, I thought about that after I posted, was to late to edit. You got me. LOL.