Bubbles
01-24-2009, 01:04 PM
Again, this is going by what NFL GM's SHOULD do, not what they WILL do.
1. Detroit (0-16): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Rationale: No, they aren't trading the pick. Maualuga wreaked havoc in the Rose Bowl, and is unquestionably the best defensive player in the draft following Brian Orakpo's performance in the Fiesta Bowl. The Lions could still trade down if a good offer comes their way, but for now, they upgrade their defense.
2. St. Louis (2-14): Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Rationale: Has anyone's stock ever soared THIS much after a suspension? 'Bama looked hopeless against Utah, and it's because Smith wasn't there to protect John Parker Wilson and the running backs. He comes in and works alongside Orlando Pace to form a tough O-line.
3. Kansas City (2-14): Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Rationale: Brian Orakpo may still go here, but after how badly he performed against OSU in the Rose Bowl, I think KC goes a different direction for now. Orakpo can redeem himself at the Combine, but he's got some work to do.
4. Seattle (4-12): Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Rationale: Taking two OT's in the top four is painful, but Oher fills a need here. Steve Hutchinson left several years ago, and nobody's stepped up to take his place. Michael Crabtree could also go here if Seattle finds a nice prospect at the second round level, but OT is a more pressing need.
5. Cleveland (4-12): Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
Rationale: With Eric Mangini coming to town, Cleveland needs edge-rushers. That's exactly what Orakpo is, and the Browns are delighted he fell this far despite a subpar Fiesta Bowl.
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1): James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
Rationale: This is an interesting pick. The Bengals could be in the mix to trade up to #1, as it's not clear whether Palmer will fully recover and Fitzpatrick is NOT a starting quarterback. Assuming they don't, the hometown boy would make a nice fit on defense.
7. Oakland (5-11): Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Rationale: Al Davis loves star power, and there isn't a more exciting player in the draft than Crabtree. He fills a big need in Oakland, and could give the rocket arm of JaMarcus Russell a great target to throw to.
8. Jacksonville (5-11): Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Rationale: Look for Jacksonville to try to move this pick at some point. They can't get Crabtree at this spot the way this plays out, and Mays staying at USC really puts them in a tough spot. For now, they protect Garrard, whose interception total soared from 3 in 2007 to 13 in '08.
9. Green Bay (6-10): Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Rationale: Curry's stock has shot up as of late, and with the two other marquee linebackers off the board, he's the best fit here. Green Bay's defense couldn't hold a lead to save their lives, and Curry should step in right away to help patch it up.
10. San Francisco (7-9): Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Rationale: All the offensive linemen are really demolishing my will to do these drafts, and I feel somewhat comfortable predicting at least one will bust. There's no doubt, though, that SF needs protection, both in the running and passing games. Smith is the best one available, and scouts love his footwork.
11. Buffalo (7-9): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
Rationale: Aaron Schobel's been hurt, but there's still no excuse for the backups being THIS horrendous. Johnson's a freak at 6'7", 265, and should disrupt plenty of plays.
12. Denver (8-8): Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Rationale: Javon Ringer and/or Chris Wells could also go here, but Moreno's more consistent than they are. Denver desperately needs a franchise running back to usher in the post-Shanahan era, and Moreno's got the talent to leap up the depth chart right away.
13. Washington (8-8): Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Rationale: Washington could take Duke Robinson or reach for a tackle, but Brown already has talent and could learn from Jason Taylor, one of the best of his era at defensive end. Ultimately, I think that's too much to pass up.
14. New Orleans (8-8): William Moore, S, Missouri
Rationale: Moore didn't have a great senior year, but he's still the best defensive back available. This comes as good news to a team that DESPERATELY needs speed in the secondary.
15. Houston (8-8): Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Rationale: Part of me considered Mark Sanchez here, as Matt Schaub, while solid and still in his prime, is injury-prone (he's missed 10 games combined during the past 2 seasons). However, they could also use a capable receiver opposite the equally-injury-prone Andre Johnson.
16. San Diego (8-8): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Rationale: This is actually a very good scenario for both teams. San Diego's in desperate need for a game-changer on offense with LDT declining, and Harvin should be used well by Norv Turner.
17. New York Jets (9-7): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Rationale: The Jets could take playmaking wideout Jeremy Maclin, but they could easily wait a round or two to find a receiver. Instead, I think they bolster their pass defense with Davis, a guy with temper issues but a high ceiling (some say he could be even better than Malcolm Jenkins).
18. Chicago (9-7): Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Rationale: On the other hand, the situation's much more dire in Chicago. Simply put, Kyle Orton needs a guy with soft hands to throw to, and Maclin's one of the best on the board who fills a definite need.
19. Tampa Bay (9-7): Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Rationale: I'd never been high on Sanchez until the Rose Bowl, where he diced a good Penn State defense on a national stage. He's not the most exciting QB, he doesn't have the biggest arm, and he may not develop into a star, but Sanchez is a reliable guy who won't make too many mistakes despite his inexperience.
20. Detroit - from Dallas (9-7): Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Rationale: Unfortunately, some of the top-tier defensive players don't fall here anymore. Still, Robinson is the best guard prospect in the draft by leaps and bounds. He'll never be a tackle, but he helps shore up a lousy front line in the Motor City.
21. Philadelphia (9-6-1): Alex Mack, C, California
Rationale: After Brent Celek caught 10 passes against Arizona, the tight end situation looks a lot more promising. Mack is clearly the best center in the draft, and he's an instant upgrade on the o-line for a coach who loves to draft big guys.
22. Minnesota (10-6): Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
Rationale: Anything's an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson. Stafford's got a nice, strong arm, and he'll have a franchise running back in the backfield to take some of the pressure off of him. I'm not totally sold on him, but this isn't a bad situation for him to be in.
23. New England (11-5): D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
Rationale: Simply put, you could trot Deion Sanders out there and he'd compete for a job in this secondary. Moore is the best corner available, and given NE's performance in pass coverage, I think the Pats need him here.
24. Atlanta (11-5): Sen'Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
Rationale: If Atlanta wants to build upon their success this year, they need to improve their run defense. Marks was the lone good part of Auburn's terrible season, and he'll be a very good pro.
25. Miami (11-5): Trevard Lindley, CB, Kentucky
Rationale: Miami needs secondary help. I had them taking Moore for quite a while, but with the defections from the draft, Lindley's the best defensive back available at this point.
26. Baltimore (11-5): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Rationale: This is an easy pick with all the first-round wideouts off the board. Pettigrew isn't only a good blocker, but he provides Joe Flacco with a big target in the midrange passing game, so he's a perfect fit.
27. Indianapolis (12-4): B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Rationale: Indy's interior run defense is just plain terrible. Raji's stock has risen with the defection of Terrence Cody and great performances at Senior Bowl workouts, so he's a natural fit with a team that could use him.
28. Philadelphia - from Carolina (12-4): Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
Rationale: In looking at this defense, nobody in the front seven stands out as a star. Maybin's a bit of a tweener, but he plays hard and puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks. His being a sophomore hurts his status somewhat, but if he drops here, look out for Philly to pull the trigger on the local pass-rusher.
29. New York Giants (12-4): Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Rationale: Wells fell out of the first round of some of my previous drafts, but comes back in due to the large number of defections. He's injury-prone, but he's got a good combination of power and speed. If he turns out to be a faster Brandon Jacobs, which he looks to be, Tom Coughlin and Co. will be perfectly happy.
30. Tennessee (13-3): Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
Rationale: Another returnee from my first few drafts. The drop from Raji to the rest of the DT's is pretty substantial, and while they could go younger at either QB or WR, Sintim is a versatile linebacker who can play inside or outside in any system, and his 11 sacks in 10 games should say it all about his ability to bust up plays in the backfield.
31. Arizona (9-7): Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
Rationale: Arizona has no worries about Wells being off the board, as they've already got a quasi-power back in Tim Hightower. Ringer should be the dash to Hightower's smash, and with both being young, they've got time to mesh together. This could go in a different direction if Edgerrin James re-signs with the club, but that doesn't look probable right now.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4): Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Rationale: Britton's the last of the marquee tackles in the draft, and Pittsburgh is more than happy to take him here. At 6'6", 310, he's a force, and one Pittsburgh needs in protecting Ben Roethlisberger, who's been on his back more times than any quarterback in the past several seasons.
1. Detroit (0-16): Rey Maualuga, LB, USC
Rationale: No, they aren't trading the pick. Maualuga wreaked havoc in the Rose Bowl, and is unquestionably the best defensive player in the draft following Brian Orakpo's performance in the Fiesta Bowl. The Lions could still trade down if a good offer comes their way, but for now, they upgrade their defense.
2. St. Louis (2-14): Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
Rationale: Has anyone's stock ever soared THIS much after a suspension? 'Bama looked hopeless against Utah, and it's because Smith wasn't there to protect John Parker Wilson and the running backs. He comes in and works alongside Orlando Pace to form a tough O-line.
3. Kansas City (2-14): Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
Rationale: Brian Orakpo may still go here, but after how badly he performed against OSU in the Rose Bowl, I think KC goes a different direction for now. Orakpo can redeem himself at the Combine, but he's got some work to do.
4. Seattle (4-12): Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss
Rationale: Taking two OT's in the top four is painful, but Oher fills a need here. Steve Hutchinson left several years ago, and nobody's stepped up to take his place. Michael Crabtree could also go here if Seattle finds a nice prospect at the second round level, but OT is a more pressing need.
5. Cleveland (4-12): Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
Rationale: With Eric Mangini coming to town, Cleveland needs edge-rushers. That's exactly what Orakpo is, and the Browns are delighted he fell this far despite a subpar Fiesta Bowl.
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1): James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
Rationale: This is an interesting pick. The Bengals could be in the mix to trade up to #1, as it's not clear whether Palmer will fully recover and Fitzpatrick is NOT a starting quarterback. Assuming they don't, the hometown boy would make a nice fit on defense.
7. Oakland (5-11): Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
Rationale: Al Davis loves star power, and there isn't a more exciting player in the draft than Crabtree. He fills a big need in Oakland, and could give the rocket arm of JaMarcus Russell a great target to throw to.
8. Jacksonville (5-11): Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Rationale: Look for Jacksonville to try to move this pick at some point. They can't get Crabtree at this spot the way this plays out, and Mays staying at USC really puts them in a tough spot. For now, they protect Garrard, whose interception total soared from 3 in 2007 to 13 in '08.
9. Green Bay (6-10): Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Rationale: Curry's stock has shot up as of late, and with the two other marquee linebackers off the board, he's the best fit here. Green Bay's defense couldn't hold a lead to save their lives, and Curry should step in right away to help patch it up.
10. San Francisco (7-9): Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Rationale: All the offensive linemen are really demolishing my will to do these drafts, and I feel somewhat comfortable predicting at least one will bust. There's no doubt, though, that SF needs protection, both in the running and passing games. Smith is the best one available, and scouts love his footwork.
11. Buffalo (7-9): Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
Rationale: Aaron Schobel's been hurt, but there's still no excuse for the backups being THIS horrendous. Johnson's a freak at 6'7", 265, and should disrupt plenty of plays.
12. Denver (8-8): Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia
Rationale: Javon Ringer and/or Chris Wells could also go here, but Moreno's more consistent than they are. Denver desperately needs a franchise running back to usher in the post-Shanahan era, and Moreno's got the talent to leap up the depth chart right away.
13. Washington (8-8): Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
Rationale: Washington could take Duke Robinson or reach for a tackle, but Brown already has talent and could learn from Jason Taylor, one of the best of his era at defensive end. Ultimately, I think that's too much to pass up.
14. New Orleans (8-8): William Moore, S, Missouri
Rationale: Moore didn't have a great senior year, but he's still the best defensive back available. This comes as good news to a team that DESPERATELY needs speed in the secondary.
15. Houston (8-8): Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland
Rationale: Part of me considered Mark Sanchez here, as Matt Schaub, while solid and still in his prime, is injury-prone (he's missed 10 games combined during the past 2 seasons). However, they could also use a capable receiver opposite the equally-injury-prone Andre Johnson.
16. San Diego (8-8): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida
Rationale: This is actually a very good scenario for both teams. San Diego's in desperate need for a game-changer on offense with LDT declining, and Harvin should be used well by Norv Turner.
17. New York Jets (9-7): Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
Rationale: The Jets could take playmaking wideout Jeremy Maclin, but they could easily wait a round or two to find a receiver. Instead, I think they bolster their pass defense with Davis, a guy with temper issues but a high ceiling (some say he could be even better than Malcolm Jenkins).
18. Chicago (9-7): Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri
Rationale: On the other hand, the situation's much more dire in Chicago. Simply put, Kyle Orton needs a guy with soft hands to throw to, and Maclin's one of the best on the board who fills a definite need.
19. Tampa Bay (9-7): Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Rationale: I'd never been high on Sanchez until the Rose Bowl, where he diced a good Penn State defense on a national stage. He's not the most exciting QB, he doesn't have the biggest arm, and he may not develop into a star, but Sanchez is a reliable guy who won't make too many mistakes despite his inexperience.
20. Detroit - from Dallas (9-7): Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma
Rationale: Unfortunately, some of the top-tier defensive players don't fall here anymore. Still, Robinson is the best guard prospect in the draft by leaps and bounds. He'll never be a tackle, but he helps shore up a lousy front line in the Motor City.
21. Philadelphia (9-6-1): Alex Mack, C, California
Rationale: After Brent Celek caught 10 passes against Arizona, the tight end situation looks a lot more promising. Mack is clearly the best center in the draft, and he's an instant upgrade on the o-line for a coach who loves to draft big guys.
22. Minnesota (10-6): Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
Rationale: Anything's an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson. Stafford's got a nice, strong arm, and he'll have a franchise running back in the backfield to take some of the pressure off of him. I'm not totally sold on him, but this isn't a bad situation for him to be in.
23. New England (11-5): D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt
Rationale: Simply put, you could trot Deion Sanders out there and he'd compete for a job in this secondary. Moore is the best corner available, and given NE's performance in pass coverage, I think the Pats need him here.
24. Atlanta (11-5): Sen'Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn
Rationale: If Atlanta wants to build upon their success this year, they need to improve their run defense. Marks was the lone good part of Auburn's terrible season, and he'll be a very good pro.
25. Miami (11-5): Trevard Lindley, CB, Kentucky
Rationale: Miami needs secondary help. I had them taking Moore for quite a while, but with the defections from the draft, Lindley's the best defensive back available at this point.
26. Baltimore (11-5): Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State
Rationale: This is an easy pick with all the first-round wideouts off the board. Pettigrew isn't only a good blocker, but he provides Joe Flacco with a big target in the midrange passing game, so he's a perfect fit.
27. Indianapolis (12-4): B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College
Rationale: Indy's interior run defense is just plain terrible. Raji's stock has risen with the defection of Terrence Cody and great performances at Senior Bowl workouts, so he's a natural fit with a team that could use him.
28. Philadelphia - from Carolina (12-4): Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
Rationale: In looking at this defense, nobody in the front seven stands out as a star. Maybin's a bit of a tweener, but he plays hard and puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks. His being a sophomore hurts his status somewhat, but if he drops here, look out for Philly to pull the trigger on the local pass-rusher.
29. New York Giants (12-4): Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Rationale: Wells fell out of the first round of some of my previous drafts, but comes back in due to the large number of defections. He's injury-prone, but he's got a good combination of power and speed. If he turns out to be a faster Brandon Jacobs, which he looks to be, Tom Coughlin and Co. will be perfectly happy.
30. Tennessee (13-3): Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia
Rationale: Another returnee from my first few drafts. The drop from Raji to the rest of the DT's is pretty substantial, and while they could go younger at either QB or WR, Sintim is a versatile linebacker who can play inside or outside in any system, and his 11 sacks in 10 games should say it all about his ability to bust up plays in the backfield.
31. Arizona (9-7): Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State
Rationale: Arizona has no worries about Wells being off the board, as they've already got a quasi-power back in Tim Hightower. Ringer should be the dash to Hightower's smash, and with both being young, they've got time to mesh together. This could go in a different direction if Edgerrin James re-signs with the club, but that doesn't look probable right now.
32. Pittsburgh (12-4): Eben Britton, OT, Arizona
Rationale: Britton's the last of the marquee tackles in the draft, and Pittsburgh is more than happy to take him here. At 6'6", 310, he's a force, and one Pittsburgh needs in protecting Ben Roethlisberger, who's been on his back more times than any quarterback in the past several seasons.