Oaklawn Sat. Apr5th Race 11

[ThoroTech_SoCal]

Since no one else has mentioned it by now, I was wondering if everyone noticed the large minus pool in the 11th race at OP on Saturday.

At roughly 5 minutes to post, I happened to look up at the monitor at Tup and it was displaying the pools in the 11th race at OP. Slightly over $786,000 had been wagered on Medaglia D'Oro to show (the largest show wager I have seen on any one horse) and the remaining 4 starters had less than $15,000 total on them.

Not sure how the totals looked at post time, but Medaglia won easily and return $2.20 to show (appears to be one of the few tracks to pay 10 cents on the dollar mimimum on show wagers). If we assume approximately $1,000,000 was wagered on Medaglia by post time the track took at least a $80,000 loss from the minus pool minimum.

Nice chunk of change to say the least,

Bill

[cj]

The total pool was just shy of 1.6 million, with just over 1.5 million bet on MDO. They also had a big minus pool in the Azeri race, maybe half the size.

CJ

[Tom]

All that purse money and no one shows up anymore. Is it that thewse two or just so dominant that everyone is afraid to face them? Or is it that there jsut any good horses left any more and when a decent one comes along, he inherits greatness due lack of competition? Whatever, it makes for dull racing and betting.

[pic6vic]

DID ANYONE NOTICE SOMETHING ODD ABOUT THE MEDALLIGA D'ORO RACE.

Because they pay $2.20 and there was so much to show you coul bet every horse in the raceto show and would be guaranteed to make 4%. If anyone has the figures on the show pool please post them and you will be able to figure this out. I took CJ's figures and I could make 4%. That means if I bet $10,000 I would make $400.00 guaranteed.

This is risk free, would anyone do it and make that decision on the spot?.

[azibuck]

5 horses x $2 = $10 wagered

3 horses x $2.20 = $6.60

Net = minus-$3.40

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by Netcapperazibuck
5 horses x $2 = $10 wagered

3 horses x $2.20 = $6.60

Net = minus-$3.40

You must do a dutch of sorts, not equal bets.

Try 9000 on MDO and 500 on the other 4 to show.

If MDO is in the money 10000*1.1=11000 break even

If MDO is not in the money you have 1500 on a big show pay(roughly $36 pay I think based on 1.5 out of 1.6 million on MDO) show pay $27000. If you play with the numbers you can make a profit no matter what.

[anotherdave]

Of course, the 3 horses won't all pay $36. Some might pay more, some less. It depends on the distribution of the money not on MDO. But you'd certainly get more than your $11000 back regardless, I believe.

AD

[pic6vic]

AD

You are correct.

because of th $2.20 pay off you must make money.

You can create this anytime at Oaklawn park.

If the money was distributed equally on the other 4 horses they would have paid $48.00.

[pic6vic]

Here is a simple scenario on this race

$200.00 to show on MDO

$4.00 to show on all the others.

Assuming the money is equally distributed on the other 4 they will pay $48.

total investment $216.00

If MDO RUNS OUT you collect $48.00 6 times = 288.00

profit of $72.00

If MDO runs runs ITM you will get $220 for him plus 4.40 for the other 2 horse

profit $8.40 for your $216.00 investment Guaranteed 4%

[anotherdave]

I don't get the $48. I was assuming a pool of 1,600,000 of which 1,500,000 was on MDO. And a take of 16% (not sure there!) so net pool

1,600,000 *.84=1,344,000

now of the 100,000 not on MDO we make the (somewhat unrealistic) assumption that each of the other 4 horses has $25,000 on them. Then if MDO doesn't come in the money there are 75,000 on the 3 that come in. That would mean 37500 $2 tickets out of 1,344,000 or a $35.84 payoff.

Regardless if it was $36 or $48, there was money to be made!

Remember the Mr. Frisky derby, where you could bet on Mr. Frisky in the U.S. and bet on the rest of the field in Puerto Rico (I think) and be guaranteed a profit?

AD

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by pic6vic
H

If MDO runs runs ITM you will get $220 for him plus 4.40 for the other 2 horse

profit $8.40 for your $216.00 investment Guaranteed 4%

Even better, I think, you get $220 for MDO and 8.80 (as you have $8 of winning tickets on the other 2) for $228.80 or a profit of 12.80

[pic6vic]

AD

Your correct $4.00 show tickets