PLACE PAYOUT

[gambler844]

Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout.
Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?
Thanks for any help
ed

[cj's dad]

Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout.
Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?
Thanks for any help
ed

I don't know of any hard and fast rule of thumb- I do know it relies on 3 things after the takeout and that is:
1-amount bet into the place pool
2-amount wagered on your selection assuming he runs 1st or 2nd,
3-the amount wagered on the other horse that runs 1st or 2nd.

There used to be a couple of guys (w/calculators) who sat in the stands at Laurel watching the tote and would estimate the show payoffs and wager or not according to their projections. seemed like a lot of work to me, but then I am not a place or show bettor.

[Dave Schwartz]

win odds x .40

[cj's dad]

win odds x .40

That's simply not correct.

[LottaKash]

win odds x .40

Yes, Dave thanks for the reassurance on that, as I am a win/place bettor in many cases, and that is what I shoot for....I made that up on my own, but it is nice to know that I got it right, from one who might know about such things......It has worked for me and has saved many a win bet....:jump:

best,

[gambler844]

Thanks Dave
ed

[cj's dad]

LK - I went over the price payouts on the NYRA web site for the last 10 racing days and that formula does not add up.

As I stated before, I am not a place bettor, but I figured that at 40% I may have to readjust my thinking so I did a little research and found the 40% doesn't hold up. Maybe 10 racing days approx 90 races is not an acurate sample but it sold me.

[Dave Schwartz]

CJ D,


0.40 x win odds was an approxiamtion that was handed to me many years ago. As I recall, I tested it at one time and found that in medium-to-low odds ranges it was reasonably sound.


So, what is the average relationship between win odds and place odds?


What figure do you find would work?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: I just ran a 5,000 race sample and found that in horses under 7/1:

win pay = $7.25 2.62:1
place pay = $4.00 1.00:1

ratio appears to be 0.38

[JCB]

0.4 is as good of a one size fits all figure as any.

[Dave Schwartz]

It appears that accross all odds ranges in that sample the number drops to 0.366.

BTW, I used the win odds of ALL horses relative to the place PAY.


I would think that one who was so inclined could easily create a more complex formula that relates win odds to place pay (i.e. pay = base number + WinOdds x multiplier).

[banacek]

Dave, a couple of years ago, you posted a chart with the average place and show pays for each range of win odds. I imagine it has changed a bit because of net pool pricing..any chance of an update?

[Dave Schwartz]

Sure. I am building a bunch of tables starting tomorrow. I will do just that.

Dave

[banacek]

Sure. I am building a bunch of tables starting tomorrow. I will do just that.

Dave

Thanks Dave!

[Dave Schwartz]

WIn Bets


Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20 7 6 85.7 $1.80 3.97 1.11 1.54
1/9 36 30 83.3 $1.91 4.32 1.13 1.61
1/5 139 99 71.2 $1.80 4.57 1.05 1.56
1/3 272 185 68.0 $1.82 4.48 1.08 1.57
2/5 492 293 59.6 $1.71 3.88 1.02 1.45
1/2 736 415 56.4 $1.75 3.74 1.03 1.45
3/5 1,914 973 50.8 $1.73 3.54 1.02 1.42
4/5 2,585 1,137 44.0 $1.66 3.12 0.98 1.34
1 2,839 1,175 41.4 $1.72 2.97 1.02 1.36
6/5 3,044 1,143 37.5 $1.69 2.72 1.02 1.33
7/5 1,679 586 34.9 $1.70 2.53 1.01 1.30
3/2 1,625 534 32.9 $1.65 2.38 0.99 1.26
8/5 3,529 1,129 32.0 $1.70 2.36 1.02 1.28
9/5 3,546 1,059 29.9 $1.71 2.23 1.02 1.26
2 9,296 2,412 25.9 $1.66 1.95 0.99 1.20
5/2 8,941 1,943 21.7 $1.61 1.67 0.96 1.12
3 8,238 1,528 18.5 $1.56 1.43 0.93 1.06
7/2 7,707 1,387 18.0 $1.68 1.40 1.00 1.11
4 6,827 1,055 15.5 $1.61 1.21 0.95 1.03
9/2 6,388 900 14.1 $1.60 1.11 0.95 1.01
5 11,067 1,383 12.5 $1.60 0.99 0.95 0.98
6 9,535 1,035 10.9 $1.62 0.87 0.96 0.96
7 8,297 725 8.7 $1.47 0.70 0.87 0.84
8 7,215 618 8.6 $1.62 0.69 0.96 0.90
9 6,659 485 7.3 $1.52 0.59 0.90 0.83
10 5,791 386 6.7 $1.52 0.54 0.90 0.81
11 5,000 314 6.3 $1.56 0.51 0.92 0.81
12 4,550 246 5.4 $1.45 0.45 0.86 0.75
13 3,980 189 4.7 $1.37 0.39 0.81 0.69
14 3,723 196 5.3 $1.64 0.43 0.96 0.80
15 3,264 137 4.2 $1.40 0.34 0.81 0.67
16 3,046 129 4.2 $1.47 0.35 0.87 0.71
17 2,775 127 4.6 $1.72 0.38 1.00 0.81
18 2,594 91 3.5 $1.35 0.29 0.80 0.63
19 2,482 85 3.4 $1.40 0.29 0.83 0.65
20 2,108 82 3.9 $1.69 0.33 0.98 0.77
21 2,104 61 2.9 $1.28 0.24 0.77 0.59
22 1,953 58 3.0 $1.36 0.25 0.82 0.62
23 1,880 54 2.9 $1.39 0.24 0.83 0.62
24 1,766 44 2.5 $1.27 0.21 0.75 0.56
29 7,651 215 2.8 $1.58 0.24 0.94 0.68
34 6,145 117 1.9 $1.26 0.17 0.75 0.53
39 4,800 70 1.5 $1.07 0.13 0.66 0.44
40 4,043 52 1.3 $1.10 0.12 0.66 0.44
45 3,332 46 1.4 $1.33 0.12 0.79 0.50
50 5,163 45 0.9 $0.95 0.08 0.57 0.36
60 3,593 23 0.6 $0.84 0.06 0.49 0.30
70 2,583 12 0.5 $0.64 0.05 0.41 0.24
80 1,808 8 0.4 $0.76 0.04 0.45 0.25
90 1,155 3 0.3 $0.67 0.03 0.29 0.18
99 2,314 6 0.3 $0.67 0.03 0.36 0.20

Total 202,216 25,031 12.4 $1.48 1.00 0.96



Place Bets

Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20 5 4 80.0 $1.68 2.65 0.74 1.12
1/9 32 30 93.8 $2.06 4.32 1.13 1.65
1/5 139 122 87.8 $1.98 5.64 1.29 1.86
1/3 267 223 83.5 $1.88 5.41 1.31 1.83
2/5 485 385 79.4 $1.85 5.10 1.34 1.82
1/2 727 559 76.9 $1.83 5.03 1.39 1.84
3/5 1,907 1,383 72.5 $1.81 5.03 1.45 1.87
4/5 2,574 1,758 68.3 $1.80 4.83 1.52 1.90
1 2,832 1,783 63.0 $1.77 4.51 1.55 1.88
6/5 3,036 1,813 59.7 $1.77 4.31 1.61 1.89
7/5 1,674 946 56.5 $1.72 4.08 1.63 1.86
3/2 1,622 927 57.2 $1.78 4.14 1.71 1.93
8/5 3,517 1,902 54.1 $1.73 3.98 1.71 1.90
9/5 3,539 1,829 51.7 $1.74 3.85 1.76 1.91
2 9,287 4,450 47.9 $1.72 3.60 1.83 1.91
5/2 8,932 3,780 42.3 $1.65 3.24 1.86 1.86
3 8,232 3,171 38.5 $1.64 2.97 1.92 1.84
7/2 7,694 2,797 36.4 $1.65 2.82 2.03 1.88
4 6,821 2,209 32.4 $1.57 2.52 2.00 1.79
9/2 6,380 1,959 30.7 $1.59 2.41 2.07 1.80
5 11,060 3,121 28.2 $1.59 2.23 2.15 1.80
6 9,531 2,443 25.6 $1.62 2.05 2.25 1.81
7 8,292 1,892 22.8 $1.58 1.83 2.28 1.76
8 7,214 1,475 20.4 $1.56 1.66 2.28 1.72
9 6,655 1,218 18.3 $1.52 1.49 2.26 1.65
10 5,790 994 17.2 $1.53 1.39 2.32 1.65
11 4,998 799 16.0 $1.52 1.31 2.35 1.63
12 4,548 713 15.7 $1.57 1.29 2.48 1.68
13 3,978 546 13.7 $1.46 1.12 2.34 1.55
14 3,721 491 13.2 $1.50 1.08 2.40 1.57
15 3,264 404 12.4 $1.46 1.02 2.40 1.53
16 3,046 346 11.4 $1.43 0.94 2.34 1.48
17 2,775 317 11.4 $1.49 0.95 2.48 1.54
18 2,593 275 10.6 $1.44 0.88 2.43 1.48
19 2,482 246 9.9 $1.46 0.83 2.39 1.45
20 2,107 208 9.9 $1.50 0.82 2.49 1.49
21 2,104 192 9.1 $1.44 0.77 2.42 1.43
22 1,953 162 8.3 $1.32 0.70 2.29 1.33
23 1,880 158 8.4 $1.37 0.71 2.42 1.38
24 1,766 133 7.5 $1.28 0.64 2.26 1.28
29 7,651 568 7.4 $1.38 0.64 2.47 1.37
34 6,144 358 5.8 $1.26 0.51 2.29 1.21
39 4,800 235 4.9 $1.20 0.43 2.21 1.13
40 4,043 181 4.5 $1.23 0.40 2.28 1.13
45 3,332 123 3.7 $1.13 0.33 2.10 1.01
50 5,163 139 2.7 $0.91 0.25 1.76 0.82
60 3,593 75 2.1 $0.85 0.20 1.61 0.73
70 2,583 47 1.8 $0.78 0.18 1.62 0.70
80 1,808 22 1.2 $0.58 0.12 1.23 0.51
90 1,155 14 1.2 $0.69 0.12 1.36 0.56
99 2,314 19 0.8 $0.58 0.09 1.15 0.46

Total 202,045 49,944 24.7 $1.48 2.00 1.92


Show Bets

Last 25,000 races
201-PubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1/20 5 4 80.0 $1.68 2.65 0.74 1.12
1/9 25 25 100.0 $2.11 3.60 0.95 1.45
1/5 125 119 95.2 $2.03 5.50 1.26 1.84
1/3 254 229 90.2 $1.92 5.55 1.34 1.87
2/5 451 398 88.2 $1.89 5.28 1.38 1.87
1/2 674 580 86.1 $1.86 5.22 1.44 1.90
3/5 1,829 1,535 83.9 $1.85 5.58 1.61 2.04
4/5 2,490 1,984 79.7 $1.82 5.45 1.72 2.09
1 2,739 2,114 77.2 $1.82 5.35 1.84 2.15
6/5 2,962 2,236 75.5 $1.84 5.32 1.99 2.24
7/5 1,633 1,181 72.3 $1.79 5.10 2.03 2.22
3/2 1,586 1,149 72.4 $1.83 5.13 2.12 2.28
8/5 3,433 2,420 70.5 $1.81 5.06 2.18 2.30
9/5 3,476 2,336 67.2 $1.78 4.91 2.25 2.31
2 9,111 5,843 64.1 $1.78 4.73 2.40 2.37
5/2 8,801 5,200 59.1 $1.74 4.46 2.56 2.39
3 8,109 4,488 55.3 $1.72 4.21 2.72 2.42
7/2 7,603 4,050 53.3 $1.74 4.08 2.93 2.50
4 6,733 3,312 49.2 $1.67 3.78 2.99 2.46
9/2 6,315 3,021 47.8 $1.72 3.71 3.19 2.54
5 10,931 4,814 44.0 $1.66 3.43 3.31 2.52
6 9,443 3,860 40.9 $1.67 3.24 3.56 2.58
7 8,205 3,069 37.4 $1.62 2.96 3.69 2.55
8 7,157 2,505 35.0 $1.62 2.81 3.87 2.58
9 6,603 2,095 31.7 $1.58 2.56 3.88 2.50
10 5,734 1,766 30.8 $1.65 2.48 4.12 2.59
11 4,957 1,427 28.8 $1.56 2.33 4.19 2.53
12 4,525 1,266 28.0 $1.56 2.29 4.41 2.59
13 3,949 983 24.9 $1.45 2.02 4.21 2.41
14 3,701 882 23.8 $1.47 1.95 4.32 2.42
15 3,243 784 24.2 $1.51 1.97 4.66 2.54
16 3,024 658 21.8 $1.46 1.78 4.44 2.40
17 2,756 593 21.5 $1.41 1.77 4.65 2.43
18 2,578 516 20.0 $1.41 1.65 4.56 2.36
19 2,475 509 20.6 $1.47 1.72 4.94 2.51
20 2,097 399 19.0 $1.44 1.58 4.79 2.41
21 2,094 387 18.5 $1.48 1.55 4.87 2.43
22 1,945 338 17.4 $1.37 1.46 4.78 2.33
23 1,875 310 16.5 $1.31 1.39 4.75 2.27
24 1,765 260 14.7 $1.28 1.25 4.42 2.12
29 7,635 1,124 14.7 $1.28 1.26 4.90 2.24
34 6,136 767 12.5 $1.22 1.09 4.90 2.13
39 4,798 531 11.1 $1.18 0.98 4.99 2.08
40 4,041 364 9.0 $1.05 0.81 4.59 1.84
45 3,331 263 7.9 $0.97 0.71 4.49 1.73
50 5,163 342 6.6 $0.88 0.61 4.33 1.60
60 3,592 190 5.3 $0.77 0.50 4.08 1.43
70 2,583 127 4.9 $0.80 0.48 4.37 1.47
80 1,808 67 3.7 $0.68 0.37 3.73 1.23
90 1,155 41 3.5 $0.67 0.36 3.98 1.25
99 2,314 41 1.8 $0.42 0.19 2.49 0.75

Total 199,967 73,502 36.8 $1.51 2.94 2.82

[Dave Schwartz]

Public Choice Ranks


Win Bets

1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 26,121 9,499 36.4 $1.69 2.77 1.01 1.32
2nd 24,740 5,196 21.0 $1.60 1.60 0.96 1.11
3rd 24,788 3,653 14.7 $1.57 1.12 0.94 1.00
4th 24,694 2,584 10.5 $1.55 0.80 0.94 0.92
5th 24,535 1,742 7.1 $1.50 0.55 0.91 0.81
6th 23,154 1,135 4.9 $1.46 0.39 0.91 0.74
7th 19,241 611 3.2 $1.30 0.27 0.83 0.63
8th 14,223 340 2.4 $1.36 0.22 0.86 0.61
above 20,720 271 1.3 $1.10 0.14 0.74 0.48

Total 202,216 25,031 12.4 $1.48 1.00 0.96





Place Bets

1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 26,071 14,867 57.0 $1.75 4.34 1.59 1.88
2nd 24,690 10,463 42.4 $1.65 3.22 1.93 1.89
3rd 24,739 7,915 32.0 $1.56 2.43 2.04 1.79
4th 24,673 6,089 24.7 $1.55 1.88 2.22 1.74
5th 24,534 4,413 18.0 $1.51 1.39 2.31 1.64
6th 23,154 2,860 12.4 $1.40 0.98 2.29 1.47
7th 19,241 1,671 8.7 $1.32 0.74 2.28 1.35
8th 14,223 939 6.6 $1.34 0.61 2.38 1.31
above 20,720 727 3.5 $1.08 0.37 1.99 1.01

Total 202,045 49,944 24.7 $1.48 2.00 1.92





Show Bets

test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 25,583 18,155 71.0 $1.80 5.30 1.94 2.19
2nd 24,239 14,267 58.9 $1.75 4.39 2.63 2.42
3rd 24,280 11,913 49.1 $1.68 3.66 3.07 2.47
4th 24,223 9,766 40.3 $1.63 3.02 3.55 2.52
5th 24,330 7,664 31.5 $1.54 2.41 4.01 2.49
6th 23,136 5,264 22.8 $1.41 1.81 4.22 2.33
7th 19,235 3,181 16.5 $1.27 1.41 4.34 2.16
8th 14,222 1,801 12.7 $1.25 1.17 4.56 2.10
above 20,719 1,491 7.2 $1.00 0.76 4.07 1.69

Total 199,967 73,502 36.8 $1.51 2.94 2.82

[misscashalot]

win odds x .40

:lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

What is so funny?

Please explain...

[formula_2002]

Public Choice Ranks


Win Bets

1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 26,121 9,499 36.4 $1.69 2.77 1.01 1.32
2nd 24,740 5,196 21.0 $1.60 1.60 0.96 1.11
3rd 24,788 3,653 14.7 $1.57 1.12 0.94 1.00
4th 24,694 2,584 10.5 $1.55 0.80 0.94 0.92
5th 24,535 1,742 7.1 $1.50 0.55 0.91 0.81
6th 23,154 1,135 4.9 $1.46 0.39 0.91 0.74
7th 19,241 611 3.2 $1.30 0.27 0.83 0.63
8th 14,223 340 2.4 $1.36 0.22 0.86 0.61
above 20,720 271 1.3 $1.10 0.14 0.74 0.48

Total 202,216 25,031 12.4 $1.48 1.00 0.96





Place Bets

1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
PLACE BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 26,071 14,867 57.0 $1.75 4.34 1.59 1.88
2nd 24,690 10,463 42.4 $1.65 3.22 1.93 1.89
3rd 24,739 7,915 32.0 $1.56 2.43 2.04 1.79
4th 24,673 6,089 24.7 $1.55 1.88 2.22 1.74
5th 24,534 4,413 18.0 $1.51 1.39 2.31 1.64
6th 23,154 2,860 12.4 $1.40 0.98 2.29 1.47
7th 19,241 1,671 8.7 $1.32 0.74 2.28 1.35
8th 14,223 939 6.6 $1.34 0.61 2.38 1.31
above 20,720 727 3.5 $1.08 0.37 1.99 1.01

Total 202,045 49,944 24.7 $1.48 2.00 1.92





Show Bets

test.
1-rPubCh
----------------------------------------------------------------
SHOW BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 25,583 18,155 71.0 $1.80 5.30 1.94 2.19
2nd 24,239 14,267 58.9 $1.75 4.39 2.63 2.42
3rd 24,280 11,913 49.1 $1.68 3.66 3.07 2.47
4th 24,223 9,766 40.3 $1.63 3.02 3.55 2.52
5th 24,330 7,664 31.5 $1.54 2.41 4.01 2.49
6th 23,136 5,264 22.8 $1.41 1.81 4.22 2.33
7th 19,235 3,181 16.5 $1.27 1.41 4.34 2.16
8th 14,222 1,801 12.7 $1.25 1.17 4.56 2.10
above 20,719 1,491 7.2 $1.00 0.76 4.07 1.69

Total 199,967 73,502 36.8 $1.51 2.94 2.82


favorite win bet roi=.84
favorite place bet roi=.875
favorite show bet roi =.90

those are similar to the numbers I came up with.
Jan 2009 numbers for the place are even a bit better.
In my dream of dreams (see my picks on the selection board) I think I can handicap the place and show roi up to 10% better than those numbers.
add in a 7% rebate and I'm in pig heaven.:)

[green80]

A simple method I use is the horses odds to win. A 4/1 , 4.00 place , 6/1 6.00 place. This will get you close unless the horse runs with a longshot or odds on favorite to skew the place payoffs

[BigJake]

favorite win bet roi=.84
favorite place bet roi=.875
favorite show bet roi =.90

those are similar to the numbers I came up with.
Jan 2009 numbers for the place are even a bit better.
In my dream of dreams (see my picks on the selection board) I think I can handicap the place and show roi up to 10% better than those numbers.
add in a 7% rebate and I'm in pig heaven.:)

I am working a method of Show betting, but really wondered if you could make consistant money doing it. I don't have all the resources I'd like, but out of 84 races (no maiden races) there were 32 plays showing a 1.16 ROI to this point. That's just Show betting, no rebating (yet). With the limits you must maintain on betting, as not to effect the pools too much, is there a way to make it just on Show betting? I don't think so. I'd love to hear some justification for it though.

[formula_2002]

I am working a method of Show betting, but really wondered if you could make consistant money doing it. I don't have all the resources I'd like, but out of 84 races (no maiden races) there were 32 plays showing a 1.16 ROI to this point. That's just Show betting, no rebating (yet). With the limits you must maintain on betting, as not to effect the pools too much, is there a way to make it just on Show betting? I don't think so. I'd love to hear some justification for it though.

the tables Dave posted indicate the long term roi ($net/2).
where do you want to start?
trying to beat long odds with a small roi (large loss) or trying to beat short odds and a larger roi(smaller loss).

When does the smart betting money, betting with the shorter priced horses with the larger roi's, get so dumb, the even smarter guys make money playing the longer odds.?

I know that is not an answer to your question. I just had to get it out. :)
suggestion, increase your 30 race sample by 100 times and see what the roi is.
If, without changing anything in your "system", you can atleast break even, you may want to do some further statistical analysis of the system.

good luck

[BigJake]

When I say I don't have the resources, I mean I don't have the ability to run a 3000 race sample overnight. :( I am just hand entering results as I play.
:( The real question is not if my system works, though. I am more interested in if anyone is using show betting as their main play.

[SMOO]

I keep seeing these improved ROIs on place & show betting for horses in the favorite range, but I'm not sure if those would hold up with extra money in the pools. Less efficient markets like these are that way because of "dumb" money being bet on longshots to place & show. But is there enough "dumb" money being bet to actualy profit off of it? :confused:

[Robert Fischer]

my adw feed has place estimates. I do a lot of flipping back and forth between the estimates and the actual amount of money in the pools. Can usually check value by just seeing the pool information. How much is on the favorite(s)?? How much is on my horse? My horse is Nth choice in the place pool and so on...

It's tough to be accurate if you're away from a computer. At an OTB watching the feed you might get a 60 second peek at the place pool with 3-5 minutes to go:D. That is fine if you are thinking about the 3rd choice, but a favorite can change drastically with late money.

[Dave Schwartz]

When I say I don't have the resources, I mean I don't have the ability to run a 3000 race sample overnight. I am just hand entering results as I play.
The real question is not if my system works, though. I am more interested in if anyone is using show betting as their main play.

It is a fact that testing to large sample sizes is inconvenient. While a 3,000-bet sample will prove the validity, even a 500-bet sample will give you a better shot at it being more than a lucky run.

32 races is pretty worthless as an indicator.


Please note that I am not disparaging your discovery. I am saying that maybe you have a discovery and maybe you don't. If you want to just jump in and try it, so be it. When you've gotten several hundred bets under your belt, you'll have a better idea if it is valid. At a couple thousand bets you will be sure, one way or the other.

Good luck on your quest.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BigJake]

Thanks Dave. As always your ideas and comments are welcome and will be well received ( yours too Formula). I really do understand that 32 races is insufficent. I really shouldn't have even mentioned any thing about my trial or my numbers. I was just setting a backdrop for my question about show betting being profitable in the long run. I had been looking for a place on this forum to ask, and saw this about place betting and took a shot. I've only heard of one person in So Cal who really utilizes place and show betting as their main method. I was wondering if anyone else was trying, successful, or unsuccessful in that. Beyer says you can't even win long term with win bets. You need a couple of big exotic hits a year to "make money". It sounds like people in this forum are winning with win bets, am I right? I just don't think it is possible long term, but my quest will continue.

[showbet]

...is there a way to make it just on Show betting? I don't think so. I'd love to hear some justification for it though.
By no means is it easy, but it is possible to make money with show betting. "Justification" attached.

[Dave Schwartz]

Beyer's answer obviously applies to Beyer. You mileage may vary. I know mine does.

[RonTiller]

Im trying to figure a good way to get an approximate place payout from the win payout. Is 40% of win a good estimate of pace?
This is the data for the win horse ONLY. That is, if a horse goes off at even money and wins, the win payoff will be $4.00 (obviously) and the average place price on that winning horse will be $2.86 and the median place price on that winning horse will be $2.80. This is not the average place price of horses coming in 2nd.

The median is for 18 years and the average is since 1/1/2001. Higher odds only have several hundred or less samples, so they are not displayed. There are a few other minor technicalities in compiling the data but here are the numbers:


Odds W$ Avg_P$ Med_P$
0.1 $2.20 $2.19 $2.20
0.2 $2.40 $2.25 $2.20
0.3 $2.60 $2.30 $2.20
0.4 $2.80 $2.37 $2.40
0.5 $3.00 $2.44 $2.40
0.6 $3.20 $2.52 $2.60
0.7 $3.40 $2.61 $2.60
0.8 $3.60 $2.69 $2.60
0.9 $3.80 $2.77 $2.80
1 $4.00 $2.86 $2.80
1.5 $5.00 $3.24 $3.20
2 $6.00 $3.59 $3.60
2.5 $7.00 $3.90 $3.80
3 $8.00 $4.26 $4.20
3.5 $9.00 $4.61 $4.60
4 $10.00 $4.91 $4.80
4.5 $11.00 $5.28 $5.20
5 $12.00 $5.62 $5.60
6 $14.00 $6.30 $6.20
7 $16.00 $6.96 $7.00
8 $18.00 $7.73 $7.60
9 $20.00 $8.39 $8.20
10 $22.00 $8.94 $8.80
11 $24.00 $9.78 $9.60
12 $26.00 $10.30 $10.20
13 $28.00 $10.90 $10.80
14 $30.00 $11.49 $11.40

At 1/9, winning horses median place payoffs are 100% of their win payoff.
At 1/2, winning horses median place payoffs are 80% of their win payoff.
At 1/1, winning horses median place payoffs are 70% of their win payoff.
At 5/2, winning horses median place payoffs are 54% of their win payoff.
At 5/1, winning horses median place payoffs are 47% of their win payoff.
At 10/1, winning horses median place payoffs are 40% of their win payoff.

Somebody can do a simple regression to get the best formula. The place payoff for the 2nd place finisher is another question.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[Track Collector]

Let me throw out a caution when it comes to trying to make a profit with show bets. Unless one is playing exclusively at major tracks like GP, SA, etc., one should take the time to calculate the pool dilution one will bring about due to their wager going in to the pool. If your wager is say $20 and up you could easily half or even negate all of your identified advantage at a minor or mid-level track. Even with lesser show wagering amounts it is still a good exercise to determine and understand how much YOUR pay-off will be reduced when YOU enter the wagering pool.

As stated by Dave, small sample sizes can have huge variations, and have the power to fool you in to thinking a particular handicapping strategy is profitable when in fact it is not. Do yourself a favor and test it over a much larger sample size.

[juanepstein]

play australia

[formula_2002]

yesteday 01-21-2009

w/o any handicapping, 101 favorites returned a wps roi of .96

so far this month, 1344 favorites returned a wps roi of .90.

compare that to daves tables where the wps roi calculates to .83

i think the economy is having an impact on the tote board :jump:

[Dave Schwartz]

Joe,

Of course, I am sure that you would be the first to tell us that the sample size is small but there is no doubt that racing is ever-changing. Perhaps it is a trend.

Build a table based upon month-of-year (from past years) and compare to that.

Dave

[formula_2002]

Joe,

Of course, I am sure that you would be the first to tell us that the sample size is small but there is no doubt that racing is ever-changing. Perhaps it is a trend.

Build a table based upon month-of-year (from past years) and compare to that.

Dave
what would be interesting to me would be to go back 10 years, calculate w,p,s, and wps roi standard deviation and z scores .
if there were a tend, then i would like to chart it against the s&p and dja..

[Dave Schwartz]

What stops you?

[formula_2002]

What stops you?
I have to work it in with some of my other thoughts :)

[formula_2002]

yesteday 01-21-2009

w/o any handicapping, 101 favorites returned a wps roi of .96

so far this month, 1344 favorites returned a wps roi of .90.

compare that to daves tables where the wps roi calculates to .83

i think the economy is having an impact on the tote board :jump:
In the book "efficiency of racetrack betting markets" page 271, there are a few roi charts .
in 1947 there were 1124 races in which horses that went off at <=1.5 that has an roi of about .90
in 1975 there were 1183 race in which the same odds range horses returned a roi of about .83
in 1972-1974 there were 1730 races that returned about .86 roi.
there are other charts including the 10,000 Fabricant race study (the <=1.5 horses returned about .92 roi in 1965)

I dont know what the takeout was in 1947, but i would think it was less than todays.
I seem to recall that at one time, perhaps in the late 30's the take was 10%

[Dave Schwartz]

Joe,

I don't think you need to work that hard.

Racing is changing because of:

1. Proliferation of common information (i.e. downloads)
2. Better tools
3. Whales

I'd bet that you could look at (say) each of the last 5-10 years and see a trend.


Dave

[mannyberrios]

:1: By no means is it easy, but it is possible to make money with show betting. "Justification" attached.:1: Very interesting, maybe it is posible

[TEJAS KIDD]

Figuring Place Payoffs.
Twinspires has a tab for pools in the betting/toteboard.
Click on the Pools tab and then click on percentages
The Percentages of the pool that each horse represents is under their corresponding number.
If you know what the take out rate is at the track, then deduct that from 100.
Lets say its 18% for wps wagers to get 82%
Now add the top 2 finishers percentages.
Lets say 35 and 15
Deduct that sum of 50 from the 82%
Now we have 32% remaining to be paid out but we have to divide by 2 (1 cut for each horse)
The 1st horse gets paid 16-35 $2.80 or 2.90 if using nickle breakage
and the other gets paid 16-15 $ 4.00 or 4.10 if nickle breakage

If your looking at possible payoffs then you take the % of your horse and use the favorite (or highest % of remaining runners), that will represent the lowest possible payoff for the place. Then take the Lowest % runner and use it with your horse. That will represent the highest possible payoff for your runner

Hope that helps and hope I explained it thoroughly