Picking the GIANT HANDICAPPING BRAIN of PACE

[Horsefan]

For debuts, or for horses that have limited racing experience, I'm sure that some of you use pedigree handicapping somewhat. One gentleman sent me a link to such a site- breedingwinners.com. While I am figuring that site out, I still use pedigree query because I am familiar with it.

I wanted to ask any and everyone's opinion on this race, here's the info I have on entrants pedigrees. This is the 2nd race at Aqueduct TODAY at 12:58, a 3 year Open MSW at 6 furlongs.
1. The Knightly News- debut?, jockey Castro, trainer Bruce Bowen, 15-1. Dosage index 1.50, sired by Regal Classic (Vice Regent x No Class) 27 starts (8-8-3, $1,456,584), 2 x leading NY sire. Dam Talkabout ? starts (?-3-3, $34,290), her only winner is a full sister to this colt (9 starts 1-1-1)

2. Monastir- debut?, Luzz, Mark Hennig, 6-1. Dosage index 3.67, sired by Malibu Moon, 2 starts (1-1-0, $33,840). Dam is Blazin Cat (by Tabasco Cat x Secretariat x Mr. Prospector mare), 12 starts (1-4-2, $56,410), her first foal.

3. Inger Management, Carmouche, John Servis, 6-1. One start off the board? Dosage index 5.0, sired by sprinter Kafwain. Dam Wee Like U by Great Above (Minnesota Mac x Ta Wee) and out of a Riva Ridge mare. All of Inger Management's siblings to run have been pretty successful.

4. Monte Carlo, C. Hill, Michae Hushion, 6-1. Monte Carlo's debut? Dosage index 7.0, Sired by Smoke Glacken (14 starts 10-2-1, $721,560) Dam is Luck To Boot (by Tally Ho The Fox, sprinter w/super pedigree with Never Bend/Hail To Reason/ Prince John) Luck To Boot ran 53 times (14-4-10, $109,830), 5 runners listed all good winners with durability/lots of starts.

5. Brook's Hall, A.R. Napravnk, Dominic Galluscio, 12-1. Brook's Hall debut? Dosage index 1.57, sired by sprinter Gold Tolken (26 starts, 7-6-2, $320,368) by Mr. Prospector. Dam Emisaria by Seattle Dancer (half to Seattle Slew). Emisaria a winner in France and North America. Her only foal?

6. Triste Doble Q, P. Morales, Gary Contessa, 8-1. 2 starts (0-1-0, $11,774), dosage index 1.86. Sired by Wiseman's Ferry, sprinter (with really low dosage index of 1.22?) with 16 starts (4-3-2, $825,266). Dam is Apocalyptic by Hickman Creek and out of Silent Screen mare. Apocalyptic has no other foals listed.

I'll finish below, I might be running out of space!

[Horsefan]

7. Strong Impact, R.A. Dominguez, Richard Shosberg, 4-1. Debut? Why so favored today? Dosage index 2.37, sired by AP Jet, 2005 NY sire of the year, 36 starts (4-4-3, $1,411,402) His full brother's Tappiano ($1,305,522), Poppiano ($83,002). Dam Sherry Spinner (Sired by Royal Academy, with Miswaki), Sherry was a sprinter, has two runners, not yet winners.
8. Driven By Solar, R. Muragh, Thomas Albertrani, 5-2. Debut? If so, why so favored today? Dosage index 2.20, sired by Freud (full brother to Giant's Causeway, leading NY sire of 2008). Dam is Solar Song by Fly So Free, out of winning Alydar mare Sunblaze. He look's like Solar Song's first runner.

9. Katskill Bay, M. Studart, Rodrigo Ubilo, 10-1. 2 starts (0-0-0, $4,100), dosage index 2.0. Sired by Desert Warrior (Deputy Minister x Secretariat mare). Dam is Cat In Deed by Alydeed, she won twice, # of starts unknown. It looks like Katskill is only foal.

All colts carry 120 lbs, except Katskill only 113- why? Or is Katskill a filly listed as a colt where I checked?

Thank you in advance for any and all input from the pedigree or any other angles. I wrote all this up because it help's me learn to actually see it written down. I am thinking that my picks would be Inger Management, Monte Carlo and Triste Doble Q. Based on pedigree and trainers. What do the handicapping brainiacs of PACE think?

[BIG HIT]

Hi #9 get wht off apprentice jky.As to your breed. and dosage i can be no help.Will say #8 looks like one to beat which is not saying much

[HUSKER55]

Strong Impact is probably a favorite because of the jockey and Tristie Double is Contessa and a good jockey. So I am guessing 6-4.

Good luck.

[rusrious]

Hello, What I can tell, Strong Impact is only favored because this horse's last few starts has matched or exceeded par for final time at today's class level and distance.


Myself, I would take a strong look at TRISTE DOBLE :6: , and you can throw in first time starter BROOKS HALL :5:

TRISTE DOBLE :6: , drops to lowest class level of career today, and the only horse to do so today, and her earning per start is the best of the field. She had a crap run last race, and might have had just an off day.. Which, in the long run, will make nice odds at PT, seeing she's at 8/1 ML.. Want pace? This is your horse, which is awesome down the stretch. WILL have the energy to race to the wire, JMO..

BROOKS HALL :5: , the jocky/trainer combo might be where the money is today, seeing they both are awesomeOVERLAY mutuels collectors 12/1, whyyyy not, throw $4 at her and see what happens..

Going to be a good race,

Good Luck

[JustRalph]

6 is out


7-8-9-4

[rusrious]

OOOOO- thanks, Then I will have to go with :2: ,:5: ,:8: ,:7:

[riskman]

I am thinking that my picks would be Inger Management, Monte Carlo and Triste Doble Q. Based on pedigree and trainers. What do the handicapping brainiacs of PACE think?

Breeding Winners is an excellent site for pedigree info. Nice data base.
This is a 6F INNER DIRT FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD FOALED IN NY.MSW
The 1,2,5 and 4 are 1XS. On pedigree I like the 2 and 4. These are NYB so beware.
If I were betting the race, I would key the 3 w 9 8 7

[SMOO]

Hate to go chalk, but the :8: is the winner.

[Robert Fischer]

these are all fine for dirt sprints
the 2 has a decent pedigree

the 7 has a decent ped. a little turfy but established form already

[Robert Fischer]

pedigree isn't going to play a huge role in dirt sprints other than stone-cold turf horses or marathon breeds.

it does come into play a little with younger first time starters on dirt sprints

[rusrious]

geeesh, 8 barely even made it,

[MakinItHappen]

Breeding Winners is an excellent site for pedigree info. Nice data base.
This is a 6F INNER DIRT FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD FOALED IN NY.MSW
The 1,2,5 and 4 are 1XS. On pedigree I like the 2 and 4. These are NYB so beware.
If I were betting the race, I would key the 3 w 9 8 7

That was a nice call... even got the top 4 in exact order... hope you played it!

Best of Luck Riskman and Everyone Today!

MakinItHappen

[riskman]

MIH--I was not going to bet the race until I saw the thread --so I thank horse fan for getting me involved and capping the race. Had the win, ex and tri. My NYCOTB account needed a boost.

[Horsefan]

THANK YOU ALL!!!!
(My Internet just came back on)
You are welcome Riskman. I am so glad that we got the winner!!! I am so challenged on the pps, but I love to pore over the pedigrees - which I am not that good on anyways. I just went with a notable trainer and a good mare who throws winners so consistently.

I dislike signing up for stuff all over the Net, and it spooks me to use credit card (Paypal? unaware of and suspicious of)- so a little limited. I will keep trying breedingwinners.com.

The Giant Handicapping Brain is how I really think of PACE, for those not competitive with each other, I would think that by pooling our know how we could really upgrade our finesse. I realize you guys are already old hands at it, but I often don't get the methods just by the numbers listed. I'll keep reading though.

[JustRalph]

6 is out


7-8-9-4

don't know how I overlooked the 3.......... that's what I get for not looking at the form and just using the software printout................ at least I found a minor hole in my software............